d47 enrollment projections
TRANSCRIPT
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CCSD #47
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS -
AN INTRODUCTION
Presented on March 22, 2011
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Executive Summary
Per the Kasarda B Projections, District 47student enrollment is expected to decline by
approximately 1,000 students in the nextseven to eight years
Data on birth trends suggest that the sizes ofkindergarten classes will remain flat ordecline in some instances
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Executive Summary
Birth rates coupled with slowing housingturnover and development has inhibited the
attraction of younger households withchildren
The short term housing growth prospects arebleak
Indian Prairie, Glacier Ridge, South andLundahl are schools worth noting
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Kasarda Series
B Projection
Factors in obtaining a series B projection:
a. less than optimistic housing forecasts
b. average student migration/transfers
c. an assumption is made that the housingmarket would be recovered by 2015 whichincludes the resumption of construction andhousing turnover back to historical averages
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Enrollment History
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Projected Enrollment
By 2018-2019, D47 will experience a decrease of about 1,000 students
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Determinants of
Enrollment Change
Kindergarten class versus exiting 8th graders
Net migration/transfers as they progress
Annual change in special education class sizes
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Decomposition of
Enrollment Change
Transition Year
Sept to Sept
Change
Total
Enrollment
Entering K
Vs. Exiting 8th
Net Student
Migration/
Transfer
Change in
SPED
Enrollment
2000-2001 248 -13 214 47
2001-2002 233 -61 296 -22002-2003 180 -81 258 3
2003-2004 20 -151 177 -6
2004-2005 149 -157 226 80
2005-2006 -42 -181 122 172006-2007 -135 -181 22 24
2007-2008 -259 -282 51 -28
2008-2009 -209 -245 55 -19
2009-2010 -269 -332 21 42
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Existing Plotted Lots
Development Location # of Units Schools AffectedExpected Build
Out
Bard Square Bard & Huntley 38 M ulti Family West/RBMS After 2015
Ashwood Estates W. of Huntley; S. of
Oakwood; N or Bard
28 Single Family West/RBMS In 2013/2014
Preston Pines N. of 176; E. of Rt.31 at Brighton Ln.
and River Birch Blvd
275 Single Family;184 Townhomes
Husmann/RBMS Postponed until2015-2020
Ashton Pointe W. of Pingree Rd.;N. of UPRR
71 Single Family; 49Townhomes
Coventry/HBMS Some maybe nextyear
Waterford W. of Golf Course atWaterford Cut
11 Single FamilyStill Avail.
WC/LMS Completion by2014
Lexington NW. Corner ofRandall and Miller
Rds.
94 Townhomes IP/LMS Not built until2012-2015
Prairie Grove TownCenter
Not in Crystal Lake 28 Single Family; 72Multi Family
Husmann/HBMS Not built until2015-2020
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BUILDING LEVEL EFFECTS
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Anticipated Building Level
Enrollment Decline Through 2015-2016
School10-11
Enrollment15-16
EnrollmentStudent
DecreasePercentage
Decrease
Canterbury 511 480 -31 6.4%
Coventry 521 487 -34 7%
Glacier Ridge 665(540) 594(468) -71(-72) 12%(15.4%)
Husmann 631 594 -54 9.4%Indian Prairie 599 519 -80 15.4%
North 678 608 -70 11.5%
South 440 394 -46 11.7%
West 695 649 -46 7.1%
Woods Creek 644 586 -58 9.9%
HBMS 972 954 -18 1.8%
RBMS 1004 905 -99 10.9%
LMS 999 881 -118 13.4%
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Potential Impact
and Considerations Additional information for the BOE
Educational programming (i.e., special
education, dual language, kindergarten, etc) Philosophy on school size
School boundaries
Building usage Staffing levels and placement
Community reaction
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DISCUSSION