Contract N: IEE/12/833/SI2.645735

Project Acronym: DIA-CORE

Assessing the performance of renewable energy support policies with quantitative

indicators

D2.1: Assessing the performance of

renewable energy support policies with

quantitative indicators Update 2014

Project Coordinator: Fraunhofer ISI

Authors:

Anne Held, Mario Ragwitz, Inga Boie (Fraunhofer ISI)

Fabian Wigand, Luis Janeiro, Corinna Klessmann, Christian Nabe,

Charlotte Hussy (Ecofys)

Karsten Neuhoff, Thilo Grau, Sebastian Schwenen (DIW)

August 2014

The sole responsibility for the content of this [webpage, publication etc.] lies with

the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union.

Neither the EACI nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that

may be made of the information contained therein.

Performance of renewables support policies

Table of Contents

Page

1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1

2 Methodological aspects ................................................................................ 3

2.1 Effectiveness of renewables policies ...................................................... 4

2.1.1 Objective and rationale ........................................................................ 4

2.1.2 Definition ........................................................................................... 4

2.1.3 Normalisation of renewable electricity generation .................................... 6

2.1.4 Normalisation of renewable heat consumption ........................................ 7

2.2 Deployment Status Indicator ................................................................. 8

2.2.1 Definition ..........................................................................................10

2.2.2 Data used .........................................................................................13

2.3 Economic incentives and conversion costs ........................................... 14

2.3.1 Electricity and heat generation costs .....................................................15

2.3.2 Potential profit for investors ................................................................17

2.4 Electricity market preparedness for RES-E market integration ............. 18

2.4.1 Objective and rationale .......................................................................18

2.4.2 Description of indicators ......................................................................23

2.4.3 Aggregation of sub-indicators ..............................................................26

3 Current status of renewable energy use in the EU ...................................... 28

3.1 Electricity ............................................................................................. 28

3.2 Heating and Cooling ............................................................................. 30

3.3 Transport ............................................................................................. 31

4 Monitoring the success of renewable energy support in the EU (All,

depending on indicator) ................................................................................... 32

4.1 Electricity ............................................................................................. 32

4.1.1 Development of national support measures ...........................................32

4.1.2 Wind onshore ....................................................................................36

4.1.3 Wind offshore ....................................................................................39

4.1.4 Solar photovoltaics .............................................................................42

4.1.5 Solid & liquid biomass .........................................................................46

4.1.6 Biogas ..............................................................................................49

4.1.7 Small-scale hydropower ......................................................................53

4.1.8 Development of support level performance over time .............................55

4.1.9 Electricity Market Preparedness ............................................................58

4.2 Heat ..................................................................................................... 61

4.2.1 Biomass heating applications (centralised and decentralised) ...................61

4.2.2 Centralised biomass heating plants (District heating plants and CHP-plants)

62

4.2.3 Decentralised biomass heating plants ...................................................64

Performance of renewables support policies

4.2.4 Solar thermal heat .............................................................................67

4.2.5 Ground-source, aerothermal and hydrothermal heat pumps ....................70

4.2.6 Geothermal heat ................................................................................72

4.3 Transport ............................................................................................. 74

5 Key messages and policy recommendations ............................................... 77

5.1 Key messages ...................................................................................... 77

5.2 Policy recommendations ...................................................................... 79

6 Annex I: Potential additional indicators ..................................................... 82

7 Annex II: Data used for sub-indicators ...................................................... 84

8 References ................................................................................................. 86

Performance of renewables support policies

Figures

Figure 1: Example: The effectiveness indicator for biogas electricity generation

in the UK in 2003 (European Commission 2005) ...................................... 5

Figure 2: Composition of the Deployment Status Indicator .................................... 13

Figure 3: Aggregation of sub-indicators ............................................................... 27

Figure 4: Market development of RET according to final energy sector (EU28) ......... 28

Figure 5: Market development of RET in the electricity sector (EU-28) .................... 29

Figure 6: Market development of new RET in the electricity sector (EU-28) ............ 29

Figure 7: Market development of RET in the heating and cooling sector (EU-28)....... 30

Figure 8: Market development of RET in the transport sector (EU-28) ..................... 31

Figure 9: Evolution of the main support instruments in EU28 Member States ........... 34

Figure 10: Main support instruments applied in EU28 Member States at the end

of 2013 ............................................................................................. 35

Figure 11: Policy Effectiveness Indicator for wind onshore power plants in the

period 2011 2013. Countries are sorted according to deployment

status indicator................................................................................... 36

Figure 12: Deployment Status Indicator for wind onshore power plants in 2012 ......... 36

Figure 13: Remuneration ranges (average to maximum remuneration) for Wind

Onshore in the EU-28 MS in 2013 (average tariffs are indicative)

compared to the long-term marginal generation costs (minimum to

average costs).................................................................................... 37

Figure 14: Potential profit ranges (Average to maximum remuneration and

minimum to average generation costs) available for investors in 2013

and Policy Effectiveness Indicator for wind onshore in 2013 ..................... 37

Figure 15: Policy Effectiveness Indicator for wind offshore power plants in the

period 2011 2013............................................................................. 39

Figure 16: Deployment Status Indicator for wind offshore power plants in 2012 ......... 39

Figure 17: Remuneration ranges (average to maximum remuneration) for Wind

Offshore in the EU-28 MS in 2013 (average tariffs are indicative)

compared to the long-term marginal generation costs (minimum to

average costs).................................................................................... 40

Performance of renewables support policies

Figure 18: Potential profit ranges (Average to maximum remuneration and

minimum to average generation costs) available for investors in 2013

and Policy Effectiveness Indicator for wind offshore in 2013 ..................... 40

Figure 19: Policy Effectiveness Indicator for Solar PV power plants in the period

2011 2013 ...................................................................................... 42

Figure 20: Deployment Status Indicator for Solar PV power plants in 2012 ................ 43

Figure 21: Remuneration ranges (average to maximum remuneration) for Solar

PV in the EU-28 MS in 2013 (average tariffs are indicative) compared

to the long-term marginal generation costs (minimum to average

costs) ................................................................................................ 43

Figure 22