Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and BeyondD1: The NMC MethodologyBrian KellyIndependent researcher/consultant at

UK Web Focus Ltd.Tony HirstSenior lecturer at The Open UniversityContact DetailsBrian Kelly Tony HirstEmail: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.comTwitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemediaBlog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/Slides and further information available at

http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/

UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut

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D: NMC Methodology

Contents • Can we trust the experts?• Collaboration and crowd-sourcing• Systematising: Delphi process• Using the process

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D: NMC Methodology

Listening to Experts

You: • Go to a conference and listen to an

expert• Read a report written to expert in sector • Organise an event with input from

expertsThe experts identify relevant solutions But does this always work?• SGML for sharing computer

documentation• METS metadata standard

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D: NMC Methodology

Should ACOCG Use SGML?2-day SGML workshop organised by ACOCG in March 1990Context:

ACOCG wish to distribute viewgraphs; teaching material and manual across HE sector so they can be updated for local use

Questions for workshop delegates:• Is SGML the right protocol to use?• If so, are DAPHNE DTDs good starting point?• If so, what changes are used?• …

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Should ACOCG Use SGML?Audience

• 13 speakers and additional 15 delegates• Included SGML experts

Main Recommendations• SGML should be adopted for document distribution• A set of DTDs should be established • Experiences should be shared across sector

Reality• Documentation probably produced using MS Word!

Observations• SGML was too heavyweight• Sector was gaining expertise in DTP and WYSIWYG

word processors• In 1998 XML standard released, a lightweight update

to SGML

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D: NMC Methodology

We commission reports from experts in a field

Should we be surprised that they highlight the importance of the area they are experts in?!

The expertise is important, but we need to have counter-balances

… is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.

In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

D: NMC Methodology

A Collaborative ApproachWe could use Twitter

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Tweet your ideas with event hashtag

I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #ilifut2015 58

Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from visiting when it’s raining! #ilifut2015 22

and implications for libraries

We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the library #ilifut2015 41

Discuss alternative implications …

So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library building? #ilifut2015 48

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& issues such as legal implications, business models, …

What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use? Importing banned book? … #ilifut2015 27

Feel free to add implications for users …

Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)

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D: NMC Methodology

NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Library Edition

NMC Horizon Report, 2015: Library edition:• Published in Aug

2015• Based on ideas

from panel of experts

• Ideas refined using Delphi process

• Report available under Creative Commons licence

PDF

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D: NMC Methodology

Delphi ProcessFrom Wikipedia:

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds.

This approach is used by the panel of experts which provide input into NMC Horizon reports

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D: NMC MethodologyShort-Term Technology

DriversWhat trends driving technology adoption in the short term (1-2 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify?

Trends are sorted into three movement-related categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within (2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years.

After summarising technologies important in short-term, lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption

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D: NMC MethodologyShort-Term Technology

DriversTwo areas of importance in the short-term (1-2 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

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“Overview According to a study from eConsultancy, 88% of online customers are unlikely to return to a website after a negative initial experience. A first impression is critical in the digital world ...”

“The rise of mobile technology is changing the nature of discovery and research workflows, leading many libraries to adapt their strategies for the delivery of content and services. Responsive web design (RWD) is one way that libraries are accommodating their increasingly mobile patrons”.

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What’s Missing?Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):• What significant technology drivers do you

feel will have an impact in the short term (1-2 years)

• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!• Facilitators will record ideas

This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of expertsVote on two ideas which you feel are most important:

• Area 1• Area 2

This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined and prioritised

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Medium-Term Technology Developments

Two technological developments in medium term (2-3 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised:

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“Information visualization is the graphical representation of technical, often complex data, designed to be understood quickly and easily. Popularly called “infographics,” this type of media is highly valuable in the age of ubiquitous knowledge …”

“The semantic web infers the meaning, or semantics, of information on the Internet using metadata to make connections and display related information that would otherwise be elusive or altogether invisible”

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What’s Missing?Let’s use the Delphi process:• What significant technological

developments do you feel will have an impact in the medium term (3-5 years)

• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!• Facilitators will record ideas

This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of expertsVote on two ideas which you feel are most important:• Area 1• Area 2

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined based on your experiences

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D: NMC Methodology

The ChallengesWhat challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify?These were classed as:• Solvable Challenges: those

that we understand and know how to solve

• Difficult Challenges: Those that we understand but for which solutions are elusive

• Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address

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D: NMC Methodology

The ChallengesTwo difficult challenges were identified:

“Before the rise of the Internet, libraries were widely perceived as the ultimate gateways to knowledge. … Emerging technologies are fostering changes in patron behavior, challenging libraries to either adapt to the new expectations defined by current discovery practices or risk becoming obsolete”

“The influx of data and digital resources involved in learning and research is challenging the capabilities of libraries. It is no longer enough for librarians to manage the flow and organization of print materials.”

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D: NMC Methodology

What’s Missing?Let’s use the Delphi process:• What:

Solvable Difficult Wickedchallenges are missing?• Document (or tweet or shout) your ideas!• Facilitators will record ideas

Choose one idea per category:• Solvable• Difficult• Wicked

This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context

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Questions?