czos & water security: western u.s. lessons & global implications
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CZOs & water security: Western U.S. lessons & global implications. Roger Bales Professor & Director Sierra Nevada Research Institute UC Merced. NASA-MODIS satellite image . Making a water-secure world – the three I’s. INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport & treat water. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CZOs & water security: Western U.S. lessons &
global implications
NASA-MODIS satellite image
Roger BalesProfessor & Director
Sierra Nevada Research Institute
UC Merced
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Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONSHARD SOFT
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Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONS
Water security: the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity & quality of water for health, livelihoods & production, coupled w/ an acceptable level of water-related risks
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Ecosystem services
Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONS
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Ecosystem services
Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONS
Water is fundamental to sustainable ecosystem services. Water management therefore translates into managing ecosystem services, and must be a fundamental goal of virtually all such efforts.
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Much of the water supply for the semi-arid Western U.S. derives from mountain snowpacks
Warming by +2 to +6oC drives significant changes:
– rain-vs-snow storms *– snowpack amounts *– snowmelt timing *– flood risk– streamflow timing *– low baseflows– growing seasons *– recharge?– drier soil in summer
Precipitation changes?
Already observed (*)
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Water security lies at the heart of adaptation to climate change
Includes both:̶8 ‘hard’ options to capture & control water̶8 ‘soft’ tools to manage demand as well as
increase supply, e.g. water allocation, conservation, efficiency & land-use planning
What California is doing:̶+ Planning for infrastructure̶+ Collaboration & integration in planning,
management̶+ More information-intensive decision support
General feeling in the water community that soft opportunities will be insufficient
Southern Sierra CZO is addressing knowledge gaps in all 3 areas
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Critical zone observations are a foundation for water security
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CZO
UCM
CZO location
Southern Sierra CZO is located at elevations 1750-2100 m, across the rain-snow transition, in a very productive mixed-conifer forest, with extended measurement nodes at elevations 400-2700 m
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lidar
A new generation of integrated measurements
eddy correlation
satellite snowcover
embedded sensor
networks
isotopes & ions
sap flow
low-cost sensors
sediment
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Southern Sierra CZO
CZO
N-S transect of research catchments
MODIS image
Main CZO site
6001200180024003000
Elev., m
San Joaquin Experimental
Range400 m
Shorthair Creek
2700 mCZO P301
2000 m
Soaproot Saddle1100 m
E-W transect of flux towers
NEON to follow same E-W transect as CZO
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Increase in water yield w/
elevation
Decreasing temperatureIncreasing snow fractionDecreasing LAICoarser soils
Implication for 2oC warmer climate:Reduce runoff by 10-40% in mixed conifer forest
0.1 increase per 350 m
95018001950
750
Year Precip, mm
Wet years
Dry years
3oC
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X
X
X Water-balance Et (2009-10)
Elevation, m
ET fl
ux, m
m y
r-1Evapotranspiration (ET) across an elevation transect
– Lower elevation is water limited– Higher elevation is cold limited– Highest current ET in rain to rain-snow-transition region of
mixed conifer forest – year-round growth
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Is ET really this high?
Modeled ET in Yosemite (Lutz et al., 2010) – Ecological & climate models often have ET values in the 200-500 mm range
– Deficit based in part on 1-m or 2-m soil depth
– CZO results suggest values in the 500-1200 mm per year range –deeper active storage of water
Precip = ET + Streamflow
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
015
030
045
060
075
090
010
5012
0013
5015
0016
5018
0019
5021
0022
5024
0025
5027
00
Num
ber o
f day
s
Elevation (m)
Days water limited
Days freeze limited
Growing season
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
400 1160 2060 2700
Num
ber o
f day
s
Elevation (m)
Days water limited
Days freeze limited
Growing season
water limit
cold limit
growing season
100
0
200
300
Days
100
0
200
300
Days
300 900 1500 2100 2700Elevation, m
water limitcold
growing season
Conventional wisdom: short growing seasons, small changes w/ elevation
Observations: – Water & cold limitation thresholds
that kick in at lower/higher elevations
– Sweet spot at mid elevation – only weak water/cold co-limitation
Implications– Warming alone could cause big
change in growing season length– Ecohydrologic & biogeochemical
processes may not be buffered against warming
Water & temperature limits
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Some implications of steep elevation gradients in ET & runoff for water resources
Forest management is important for water yield & the timing of snowmelt runoff
Downstream beneficiaries have a stake in upstream watershed management
Better measurement & process understanding are critical to realizing benefits of management actions
SS-CZO is addressing knowledge gaps & stimulating adaptive management
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Developing a new water-information system for California & beyond – American R. basin prototype
Strategically place low-cost sensors to get spatial estimates of snowcover, soil moisture & other water-balance componentsNetwork & integrate these sensors, w/
satellite data & modeling, into a single spatial instrument for water-cycle estimates in progress
Scaling CZO results for water, flood & drought management
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Southern Sierra CZO is a multi-campus program & a community resource
R. Bales, P. KirchnerM. Conklin, R. LucasS. Hart, J. BlankenshipA. Behre, E. Stacy
M. Goulden, A. Kelly
C. Tague, K. Son
J. Hopmans, P. HartsoughB. Houlton, S. EndersT. O’Geen
D. Johnson, C. Woodward
C. Riebe, B. Jessup
S. Glaser, B. Kerkz
C. Hunsaker
N. Molotch, K. Musselman