Cyd SzymanskiCyd SzymanskiEliza SmithEliza SmithCaitlin SheaCaitlin Shea

November 5, 2008November 5, 2008Professor SuttonProfessor Sutton

In this chapter, Lester Brown discusses many In this chapter, Lester Brown discusses many signs that show a population moving towards signs that show a population moving towards a collapse:a collapse:

Income DisparityIncome Disparity Gaps in Education and HealthcareGaps in Education and Healthcare DesertificationDesertification Population GrowthPopulation Growth Conflict over Land and WaterConflict over Land and Water And, as infrastructure collapses – Failing And, as infrastructure collapses – Failing

StatesStates

862 million are undernourished.862 million are undernourished. 1.6 billion are over nourished and overweight.1.6 billion are over nourished and overweight.

What does this say about the world today??What does this say about the world today??

Infectious DiseaseInfectious Disease• Malaria- 1 million deaths annually, 89% Malaria- 1 million deaths annually, 89%

in Africain Africa• TuberculosisTuberculosis• DysenteryDysentery• MeaslesMeasles• Respiratory InfectionsRespiratory Infections

AIDS- 86 million infected, 40 million AIDS- 86 million infected, 40 million deaths, 18 million orphans by 2010deaths, 18 million orphans by 2010• Now a development problem, Now a development problem,

undermining food, security, educational undermining food, security, educational system, foreign investment, leading to system, foreign investment, leading to failing states and social breakdown.failing states and social breakdown.

• http://http://www.girleffect.orgwww.girleffect.org//

Cardiovascular DiseaseCardiovascular Disease ObesityObesity High fat dietsHigh fat diets SmokingSmoking Exercise deprivationExercise deprivation

  

1 billion live in countries with stable 1 billion live in countries with stable populationspopulations

1 billion live in countries with 1 billion live in countries with doubling populations by 2050doubling populations by 2050

  

72 million don’t go to school at all72 million don’t go to school at all 781 million adults are illiterate781 million adults are illiterate

• Illiterate women have larger familiesIlliterate women have larger families• Each year of schooling raises earning Each year of schooling raises earning

power 10-20%power 10-20%

1.1 billion people lack safe water1.1 billion people lack safe water• Waterborne diseases claim more than 3 million Waterborne diseases claim more than 3 million

lives/yearlives/year• Infant mortality is 12 times higher in poorest countries Infant mortality is 12 times higher in poorest countries

than affluent (95/1000 vs. 8/1000 live births)than affluent (95/1000 vs. 8/1000 live births) The Nile – Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia use the waterThe Nile – Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia use the water

• Egypt growing from 75 million to 121 million in 2050Egypt growing from 75 million to 121 million in 2050• Sudan- from 39 million to 73 million in 2050Sudan- from 39 million to 73 million in 2050• Ethiopia, controlling 85% of headwaters- 83 million to Ethiopia, controlling 85% of headwaters- 83 million to

183 million!183 million!

  

200 human diseases linked to pollutants200 human diseases linked to pollutants• 37 kinds of cancer37 kinds of cancer• Heart diseaseHeart disease• Kidney diseaseKidney disease• High blood pressureHigh blood pressure• DiabetesDiabetes• BronchitisBronchitis• Sperm damageSperm damage• Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’sAlzheimer’s and Parkinson’s

In England and Wales over an 18-year period, death rates In England and Wales over an 18-year period, death rates more than tripled for men and nearly doubled for womenmore than tripled for men and nearly doubled for women

Long-term, low-level exposure to pesticides raised the Long-term, low-level exposure to pesticides raised the risk of developing Parkinson’s by 70%risk of developing Parkinson’s by 70%

World Health Organization (WHO) World Health Organization (WHO) estimates 3 million deaths worldwide estimates 3 million deaths worldwide each year from pollutantseach year from pollutants• Three times the number of traffic Three times the number of traffic

fatalitiesfatalities• In US, air pollution claims 70,000 lives In US, air pollution claims 70,000 lives

compared with 45,000 traffic deathscompared with 45,000 traffic deaths

Running out of landfill room near citiesRunning out of landfill room near cities Running out of natural resources:Running out of natural resources:

• 17 years of reserves for lead17 years of reserves for lead• 19 years of reserves for tin19 years of reserves for tin• 25 years of reserves for copper25 years of reserves for copper• 54 years of reserves for iron ore54 years of reserves for iron ore• 68 years of reserves for bauxite68 years of reserves for bauxite

Cost of hauling garbage: 600 tractor Cost of hauling garbage: 600 tractor trailers/day in NYCtrailers/day in NYC

  

Competition for Land and Water leads Competition for Land and Water leads to unmanageable social tensionsto unmanageable social tensions• From 1950 to 2007, grainland per person From 1950 to 2007, grainland per person

has been cut in half, from 0.23 hectares to has been cut in half, from 0.23 hectares to 0.10 hectares, shrinking below that needed 0.10 hectares, shrinking below that needed for survivalfor survival

Population and Resource Conflict Population and Resource Conflict continued…continued…

Desertification – The SahelDesertification – The Sahel• Sudan had a fourfold pop. increase from Sudan had a fourfold pop. increase from

1950-20071950-2007• Cattle pop. had a sixfold increase/sheep & Cattle pop. had a sixfold increase/sheep &

goats, eightfoldgoats, eightfold• 2 million dead, 4 million displaced2 million dead, 4 million displaced

(1) Darfur- camel herders vs. subsistence (1) Darfur- camel herders vs. subsistence farmers 200,000 killed/250,000 dead from farmers 200,000 killed/250,000 dead from hunger/diseasehunger/disease

Competition for land is amplified by Competition for land is amplified by religious differencesreligious differences

Environmental refugees migrate due to Environmental refugees migrate due to desertificationdesertification

• Population in 1950 was 2.4 million, Population in 1950 was 2.4 million, Population in 1993 tripled to 7.5 million Population in 1993 tripled to 7.5 million making it the most densely populated making it the most densely populated country in Africacountry in Africa

• Firewood and fuel for cooking deforested Firewood and fuel for cooking deforested and deteriorated the soil: land fertility and deteriorated the soil: land fertility declined and hunger set indeclined and hunger set in

• Death of president led to an organized Death of president led to an organized attack over land by Hutus, leading to ~ attack over land by Hutus, leading to ~ 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu deaths in 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu deaths in 100 days 100 days

RwandaRwanda

Others on the same pathOthers on the same path• Tanzania: 40 million in 2007 increasing to Tanzania: 40 million in 2007 increasing to

85 million by 205085 million by 2050• Eritrea: 5 million in 2007 increasing to 11 Eritrea: 5 million in 2007 increasing to 11

million by 2050million by 2050• Dem. Rep. of Congo: 63 million to 187 Dem. Rep. of Congo: 63 million to 187

million by 2050million by 2050• India: 1.2 billion in 2007 to 1.7 billion by India: 1.2 billion in 2007 to 1.7 billion by

20502050

“…“…the relationship between the relationship between population and natural systems is a population and natural systems is a national security issue, one than can national security issue, one than can spawn conflicts along geographic, spawn conflicts along geographic, tribal, ethnic, or religious lines.” (p tribal, ethnic, or religious lines.” (p 120)120)

Foreign PolicyForeign Policy rank according to “vulnerability to rank according to “vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration” violent internal conflict and societal deterioration” based on 12 social, economic, political and military based on 12 social, economic, political and military indicators. Key are:indicators. Key are:• Uneven development – small segment accumulates Uneven development – small segment accumulates

wealth while most suffer a declinewealth while most suffer a decline• Loss of governmental legitimacy- shifting allegiances to Loss of governmental legitimacy- shifting allegiances to

warlords, tribal chieftains or religious leaderswarlords, tribal chieftains or religious leaders• Demographic pressure/fatigue- unable to cope with Demographic pressure/fatigue- unable to cope with

steady shrinkage in cropland and fresh water per person steady shrinkage in cropland and fresh water per person or to build schools fast enoughor to build schools fast enough

• Lack of foreign investmentLack of foreign investment• Rise in unemploymentRise in unemployment• Deterioration of the physical infrastructureDeterioration of the physical infrastructure• Breakdown of law and order and loss of personal Breakdown of law and order and loss of personal

securitysecurity

“… “…one of the key indicators of political one of the key indicators of political instability in a society is the number of instability in a society is the number of unemployed young men, a number that is high unemployed young men, a number that is high in countries at the top of the in countries at the top of the Foreign Policy Foreign Policy list.” (125)list.” (125)

Failing states are a source of terrorist, drugs, Failing states are a source of terrorist, drugs, weapons, and refugees – Iraq is #2 on failing weapons, and refugees – Iraq is #2 on failing states, #1 in terrorist trainingstates, #1 in terrorist training

Failing states cannot:Failing states cannot:• collect taxes and pay debtscollect taxes and pay debts• control international terrorismcontrol international terrorism• protect endangered speciesprotect endangered species• control the spread of infectious disease, such as control the spread of infectious disease, such as

SARS, Avian Influenza, polio SARS, Avian Influenza, polio

Failing states cannot:Failing states cannot:• collect taxes and pay debtscollect taxes and pay debts• control international terrorismcontrol international terrorism• protect endangered speciesprotect endangered species• control the spread of infectious disease, control the spread of infectious disease,

such as SARS, Avian Influenza, polio such as SARS, Avian Influenza, polio

Stressors take many forms:Stressors take many forms: Widening income gap between rich and poorWidening income gap between rich and poor Widening gap in education and healthcareWidening gap in education and healthcare Refugees swell as land turns to desert and Refugees swell as land turns to desert and

wells go dry, which lead towells go dry, which lead to Societies in conflict over resources, which Societies in conflict over resources, which

lead tolead to Failing states, which lead to terrorism.Failing states, which lead to terrorism.

This problem belongs to all of us. This problem belongs to all of us.

This problem This problem belongs to all belongs to all

of us. of us.