custer charts august 2010 column
DESCRIPTION
Charts to accompany the Walt Custer & Jon Custer-Topai column that appears in Global SMT & Packaging magazine #10.8, August 2010.TRANSCRIPT
Electronic Equipment OEM Composite vs. Custer Global Equipment Model
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 201 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
-10.0
-20.0
% Growth (quarter vs same quarter in prior year)
70 Company Elec Equip CompositeCCG World El Eq Model
20100712
Composite of 70 Electronic Equipment Suppliers; Custer Consulting Group World Model
CCG estimate 7/14/10 based upon partial data
World Semiconductor Shipments Monthly US$
SIA
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 183 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
5
10
15
20
25US$ Billions (3-month average)
20100703
2009 recession much sharper but shorter than 2001
Record high
Global "Purchasing Managers" Index
JPMorgan
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 707 08 09 10
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58DIFFUSION INDEX
EXPANSIONCONTRACTION
20100703
U.S. Stock Index - S&P 500
Conference Boardwww.globalindicators.org/
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 789 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CALENDAR YEAR
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600S&P 500
20100719
World Electronic Equipment, PCB & Semiconductor Shipments
Converted @ Constant 2008 Exchange Rates
3 6 9 123 6 9 123 6 9 123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 600 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CALENDAR YEAR
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
3/12 rate of change
PCB "0" Growth SIAEl Equip
Source: Custer Consulting Group
20100718
Global "Electronic Foodchain" Outlook 2010 vs 2009
4
11
28
29
84
Combined GDP
Electronic Equipment
Rigid & Flex PCBs
Semiconductors
Semi Capital Spending
0 20 40 60 80 100% Change
20100718
Henderson Ventures
Gartner
Henderson Ventures
Custer Consulting Group
WSTS