current us consumer and housing landscape

Current US consumer and

housing landscape

3

On average, households are on solid footing

Sources: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Moody’s Investors Service

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

$100,000,000

$110,000,000

$120,000,000

$130,000,000

$140,000,000

$150,000,000

2014Q

1

2014Q

2

2014Q

3

2014Q

4

2015Q

1

2015Q

2

2015Q

3

2015Q

4

2016Q

1

2016Q

2

2016Q

3

2016Q

4

2017Q

1

2017Q

2

2017Q

3

2017Q

4

2018Q

1

2018Q

2

2018Q

3

2018Q

4

2019Q

1

2019Q

2

2019Q

3

2019Q

4

2020Q

1

2020Q

2

2020Q

3

2020Q

4

2021Q

1

2021Q

2

Mill

ions

Rise in Household Net Worth

11.00

11.50

12.00

12.50

13.00

13.50

14.00

14.50

15.00

15.50

Household Financial Obligations Ratio

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun

-15

Se

p-1

5

Dec-1

5

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

Dec-1

6

Mar-

17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

Dec-1

7

Mar-

18

Jun

-18

Se

p-1

8

Dec-1

8

Mar-

19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9

Dec-1

9

Mar-

20

Jun

-20

Se

p-2

0

Dec-2

0

Mar-

21

Jun

-21

Se

p-2

1

ECI wage growth - All workers: QoQ Ann.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000Personal saving Savings Rate

Personal Savings $ (Mil) and %

4

Since the start of the pandemic, all households have experienced solid

increases in net worthChange in net worth by distribution

Index 2019 Q4 = 100

Sources: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Moody's Investors Service Sources: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Moody's Investors Service

Year-over-year change in net worth by distribution

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2

80 - 99 percentile 60 - 80 percentile 40 - 60 percentile20 40 percentile 0 - 20 percentile

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

80 - 99 percentile 60 - 80 percentile 40 - 60 percentile20 40 percentile 0 - 20 percentile

5

Job growth accelerated in October; however, labor supply issues are

holding back job growth

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); The Conference Board; Moody’s Investors Service

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1/0

7

6/0

7

11/0

7

4/0

8

9/0

8

2/0

9

7/0

9

12/0

9

5/1

0

10/1

0

3/1

1

8/1

1

1/1

2

6/1

2

11/1

2

4/1

3

9/1

3

2/1

4

7/1

4

12/1

4

5/1

5

10/1

5

3/1

6

8/1

6

1/1

7

6/1

7

11/1

7

4/1

8

9/1

8

2/1

9

7/1

9

12/1

9

5/2

0

10/2

0

3/2

1

8/2

1

Job openings rate - Total nonfarm, (%, SA) Quits rate - Total nonfarm, (%, SA)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1/0

7

6/0

7

11/0

7

4/0

8

9/0

8

2/0

9

7/0

9

12/0

9

5/1

0

10/1

0

3/1

1

8/1

1

1/1

2

6/1

2

11/1

2

4/1

3

9/1

3

2/1

4

7/1

4

12/1

4

5/1

5

10/1

5

3/1

6

8/1

6

1/1

7

6/1

7

11/1

7

4/1

8

9/1

8

2/1

9

7/1

9

12/1

9

5/2

0

10/2

0

3/2

1

8/2

1

Number of job openings to number of unemployed

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1/19 3/19 5/19 7/19 9/19 11/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21

Labor market differential: jobs plentiful - jobs hard to get

% of respondents who reported jobs were plentiful minus the number

who reported jobs were hard to get

The ratio of job openings to unemployed declined very slightly and

remains above pre-pandemic highs

Job openings rate versus quits rateMonthly change in employment by sector - (Thousands #, SA)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Total Nonfarm [100.0%] Total private [85.0%] Goods Producing [13.9%] Private Service Providing [71.2%]

7/31/2021 8/31/2021 9/30/2021 10/31/2021

6

While moderating, home price appreciate continues to be very high

Sources: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Moody's Investors Service Sources: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Moody's Investors Service

0

5

10

15

20

25

1/17 3/17 5/17 7/17 9/17 11/17 1/18 3/18 5/18 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/19 3/19 5/19 7/19 9/19 11/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21

Case-Shiller® 20-metro home price index, SA)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1/17 3/17 5/17 7/17 9/17 11/17 1/18 3/18 5/18 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/19 3/19 5/19 7/19 9/19 11/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21

CS- Atl (NSA) CS- Dal (NSA) CS- LA (NSA) CS- Mia (NSA) CS- NY (NSA) CS- SF (NSA)

Annualized monthly over month change in home prices

Path forward from

unprecedented forbearance

8

Mid

-2021

9

Mid

-2021

10

Mid

-2021

11

Mid

-2021

RMBS credit implications

21

Proportion of

Non-cash

flowing loans in

Prime/GSE

CRT deals

continue to

trend down as

forbearance

plans expire0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

CP

R

GSE CRT performance

60+ Delinquency Non-Cash Flow % CPR

0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%


CP

R

Prime jumbo 2.0 performance


Sources: Moody’s Investors Service and Moody's Analytics Structured Finance Data Portal

22

Improvement in NCF

levels much less

pronounced in RPL

and Legacy RMBS

reflective of weaker

collateral quality

Borrowers enrolled in

forbearance plans for an

extended periods will likely

need a modification to

payment terms increasing

risk of interest shortfalls and

modification losses

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%


CP

R

RPL performance


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


CP

R

Legacy RMBS performance


Sources: Moody’s Investors Service and Moody's Analytics Structured Finance Data Portal

23

Deferrals and modifications expose RMBS to risks

Risk Legacy Prime jumbo 2.0 RPL GSE CRT

Realized losses from

deferrals or modifications

Transaction documents

silent on the treatment of

deferred balances

Immediately recognizing

deferrals as realized losses

can benefit senior bonds

Documents typically require

immediate loss recognition

for deferred balances


deferrals as realized losses

can benefit senior bonds

Treatment of deferred balances

varies by deal


deferrals as realized losses can

benefit senior bonds

Actual loss deals: Principal and

interest modifications cause

modification losses, but not

deferrals

Fixed severity deals: No losses

from modifications or deferrals

Risk of interest shortfalls

(ISF)

Recoupment of servicer

advances can result in:

➢ Alt-A/Subprime:

Permanent ISF in deals

with separate waterfalls

for P&I and weak

reimbursement structures.

➢ Prime Jumbo:

Subordinate write-downs

and temporary ISF in

deals with combined P&I

waterfall

Recoupment of servicer

advances can result in:

➢ Subordinate write-downs

and temporary ISF in deals

with combined P&I

waterfall

➢ Most deals have no servicer

advancing so risk of ISF has

been receding as level of

NCF loans decline

➢ In deals with servicer

advancing, risk of

subordinate write-downs and

temporary ISF as servicers

recoup advances following a

modification.

➢ GSEs pay bond interest; no

risk of interest shortfalls related

to advance recoupment

Overall effective at mitigating defaults, deferral and modifications pose other risks

Financial institution impacts

25

Note: The YoY change in charge-offs for Q2 and Q3 2021 are versus Q2 and Q3 2019Sources: Company disclosures, Moody’s Investors Service

Charge-offs averages

large bank lenders

-0.50%

-0.30%

-0.10%

0.10%

0.30%

0.50%

-0.50%

-0.30%

-0.10%

0.10%

0.30%

0.50%

Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021

Averages - YoY Change (LHS) Averages Actual (RHS)

Banks’ residential mortgage asset quality will deteriorate very modestly;

banks continue to lose market share to non-bank mortgage companies

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

3-yrCAGR -2Q21 vs.

2Q18

4Q20 YoY 1Q21 YoY 2Q21 YoY 3Q21 YoY

Year-over-year change in balances

averages large lenders

Additional material

27

Forbearance stock not standalone threat to housing

Payment relief was widespread, but overhang alone not risk for prices/credit

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics, and Moody’s Investors Service

30

© 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All

rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT

RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND

INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES

CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY

ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND

DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S

CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET

VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN

MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE

QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S

ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT

CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND

PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S

CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR

ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS

PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND

EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS

AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER

OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER

PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH

INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED,

REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR

MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A

BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM

BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or

mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all

necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable

including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or

validate information received in the rating process or in preparing its Publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any

person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information

contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives,

licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective

profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any

direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful

misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the

control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the

information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY

PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY

FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.

have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees

ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. MCO and Moody’s Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence

of Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO

and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership

interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and

Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S

affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL

383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act

2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a

representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to

“retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt

obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is

wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating

agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ

are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not

qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and

their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and

commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or

MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

http://www.moodys.com/