Current S&T policy in JapanCurrent S&T policy in Japanand related issueand related issue最近の科学技術政策について最近の科学技術政策について

Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.DKuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. . 浦島邦子浦島邦子S&T Foresight CenterS&T Foresight Center 科学技術動向研究センターNational Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEPNational Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP))科学技術・学術政策研究所Ministry of Education,Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT)Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT)JapanJapan 文部科学省

Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of JapanJapan 客員教授 名古屋大学、岩手大学、放送大学

Contents 本日の話題

2. Foresight of S&T 科学技術予測調査

•• Japan Revitalization strategy Japan Revitalization strategy 日本の再生日本の再生•• Policy and administration Policy and administration 政策と組織政策と組織•• S&T basic plan S&T basic plan 科学技術基本計画科学技術基本計画

•• Foresight survey Foresight survey 予測調査予測調査

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1. Current Policy 政策

3. How should we make a sustainable society 持続可能な社会

•• Design of future Design of future 将来の設計将来の設計•• Design Design of future society of future society 将来社会将来社会

4.Education 教育

•• rank of education rank of education 教育教育ランクランク•• interesting of science interesting of science 科学科学へのへの興味興味

•• Japan Revitalization strategy Japan Revitalization strategy 日本の再生日本の再生•• Policy and administration Policy and administration 政策と組織政策と組織•• S&T basic plan S&T basic plan 科学技術基本計画科学技術基本計画

3

1. Current Policy 政策

Source: cabinet

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Policy and government’s administration(related S&T) 科学技術政策体制

6http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/about/administration.html

S & T Administration

4th S&T basic Plan

1. Aggressive monetary policy2.Flexible fiscal policy3.New growth strategy

日本再興戦略

第4期科学技術基本計画

33 arrowsarrows

Japan Revitalization StrategyJapan Revitalization Strategy

NISTEP

JSPS, JST

NIER国立教育政策研究所

科学技術・学術政策研究所 CSTP総合科学技術会議

NEDO

7

Integration with innovation policy

Background of S&T

Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues.• climate change, aging population, etc. are top concerning of near future

• S&T is the key of potential to make innovation and solving a problem

•Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making

•Link between S&T policy and foresight

2001

1971 -2001 The Technology Foresight

2005 The 8th S&T ForesightMulti methods

Delphi

2010 The 9th S&T ForesightMission-oriented & interdisciplinary

Global and national changes

2010

1995S&T Basic Law

1996-2000The 1st S&T

Basic Plan

2001-2005The 2nd S&T

Basic Plan

2006-2010The 3rd S&T Basic Plan

Innovation 25Innovation 252011-2015

The 4th S&T Basic PlanGreat Disaster 2016-2020

The 5th S&T ???

8

科学・技術、イノベーションで未来を切り拓く！

The 4th S&T Basic Plan

Promote integration of S&T Promote integration of S&T and innovation performanceand innovation performance

Major Features of the 4th S&T Basic Plan

9

The 3rd S&T Basic Planü R&D promoted in the important 8 fields

Prioritized 4 areas: Life Science, ICT, Environment, Nanotech/MaterialsPromoted 4 areas: Energy, Manufacturing technology,

Social Infrastructure, Frontier

ü Grand challenges remain unresolved through discipline-oriented approach.

From discipline-oriented to issue-driven approach

Drastic enhancement of basic research

44thth S&T Basic planS&T Basic plan

10

ØThe advanced country for sustainable environment and energy that live together with nature

Green InnovationGreen Innovation

Revival, reproduction, Revival, reproduction, and improvement in and improvement in safety from a disastersafety from a disaster

ØThe revival and reproduction from an East Japan great earthquake are accomplished, and a local resident aims at realization of the society which can live more safely. Ø Revival reproduction of the Tohoku district is carried out

aiming at the country which realizes the better life and high quality.

Life innovationLife innovationØMind and body aim at realization of healthy and vigorous

society. ØRealization of the society where elderly people and a

disabled person can become independent

4 4 priority topicspriority topics

ØA subject common to the world is conquered and the rich life of the people is realized. ØTechnology is cherished as culture and the training

reservation of the various talented people is carried out.

Promotion of basic Promotion of basic research, and research, and strengthening of strengthening of personnel training personnel training

2. Foresight of S&T 科学技術予測調査

•• The 9The 9thth Foresight resultsForesight results 第第99回予測調査結果回予測調査結果•• Design of 10Design of 10thth Foresight Foresight 第第1010回予測調査の設計回予測調査の設計

11

12

Creativity/Subjective

Consensus/Interaction

Evidence/Objective

Experts/Specialty

SWOTSWOT

Road-mappingRoad-mapping

DelphiDelphi

Scenario PlanningScenario Planning

BenchmarkingBenchmarking

IndicatorIndicator

WorkshopWorkshop

Methods Categorization

13

Long--

Objective &Extrapolative

Socio-economic

Needs Analysis

Technology(Application)

Society(Impact)

Science(Basic research)

Subjective &Normative

DelphiSurvey

BibliometricAnalysisDatabase analysis

to find rapidlydeveloping areas

Scenario Analysis

Scenario writing in individual view

Improvement with new approaches

Needs list through participatory process

8th Foresight survey Multi-methodology Foresight

Change the future design

Innovation 25

15

Coupling and mixing of two types of interdisciplinary subcommittees extending beyond existing fields

Discussion by 4 Targets 12 Interdisciplinary Subcommittees D

iscu

ssio

n by

targ

et

Inte

rdis

cipl

inar

y di

scus

sion

in

clud

ing

mem

bers

of

hum

aniti

es a

nd s

ocia

l sci

ence

s

Security

Safety

(Int’l) cooperation

(Int’l) competition

Cross-field discussion of science and technology Interdisciplinary discussion

across the fields

topics Region

＋

the the 9th foresight 9th foresight

Delphi survey, Scenario writing, and local WS

Discussion for grand challenges in Japan and in other developed countries

16

What do we want to know?

Questions

Topics Realization time

Importance Promotion policies

(ICT) Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and feeling fatigue in homes.

2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….

highmoderatelownone

HRDfundingR&D system…….

(Medical care) Methods to prevent and treat human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza found in poultry.

2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….

highmoderatelownone

HRDfundingR&D system…….

(Environment) Streamflow measurement and flood forecasts to prevent unexpected disasters by using satellite observation.

2011-20152016-20202021-2025……….

highmoderatelownone

HRDfundingR&D system…….

� Prospective output� Possible future of technology/society based on experts’ intuition

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技術実現：指数 人材育成 連携強化 基盤整備 資金拡充 国際展開

5.4 24.0 46.3 31.8 77.0 4.2

社会的適用： 指数 人材育成 連携強化 起業環境 税制調達 規制緩和

4.9 24.0 46.5 12.9 58.0 33.5

Surveys: more about realization period

Human Resource

University LinkageResearch Founding

Technological Realization

Market/Social Realization

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Challenges

Questions to topics ◆ Realization time v Forecast the path from R&D to practical use

s When will a topic be feasible technologically?s When will a topic have a impact to socio-economic?

present future

Technological realization time

Social realization time

Time lag

R&D Policy

Innovation policy, etc.

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Delphi Questionnaire Sheet

QuestionnaireEmerging/Key Technology

1st Round of Survey(Realization Period)

2st Round of Survey(Realization Period)

Time scale of technological and social realization for energy issue by Delphi Survey in 2010 (The 9th Delphi survey by NISTEP)

Technological realization time

Social realization time

Time lag

R&D Policy, Innovation policy, etc.

The Delphi is interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

Is this subject important in Japan or where?Is this subject important in Japan or where?

How should we enhance R&D? How should we enhance R&D?

Should we strengthen the relation with which country?Should we strengthen the relation with which country?

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Government Supports (Ex. Hydrogen Energy)

0

50

100

0

50

100

6.56.9

6.36.9

Coordinated strengthening Coordinated

strengthening

Restriction strengthening

Restriction strengthening

Deregulation

Deregulation

International development

The Fund expansion

Infrastructure

Tax procurement

Establishment environment

Personnel training Personnel training This area

All area

This area

All area

Technical achievement Social application

Technical achievement Social application

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How realized? How realized? -- 40 years experiments in foresight40 years experiments in foresightRealization rate of past Delphi surveys conduced between 1971-1992

0 50 100

Energy

Environment

Life science

Medical care

ration of topic numbers (%)

technical problems Social problems

cost problems alternatives emerged

insuf f icient needs

Preventive reasons

0 50 100

EnergyEnvironm

ent

Life scienceMedical

care

ration of topic numbers (%)

realized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010unrealized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010topics that were predicted to realized until 2009

*"realized " means "realized at full" and "realized partially".

0 20 40 60 80 100

st survey (1971)

2nd survey (1977)

3rd survey (1982)

4th survey (1987)

5th survey (1992) realized at full

partially realized

Ratio of Topics with accelerated realization

Around 70% of the topics in past Delphi surveys are realized at fully or partially.

Green Innovation - Workshop in Local Region

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8 locations, attendee Total 129 (15-20 each)

1-AOMORIPeople are gathered peacefully and harmonizing with nature2- IWATE"Nothing" is strong point for development of our town3-YAMAGATAWe are No.1 of healthy and long life in Japan4-TSUKUBA

Research city where international sensibility was made use of to low carbon social type lifestyle

5-NAGOYASociety where harmonizing with convenient environment and cozy life style6-FUKUITown that overflows with rich amount of power generation energetically7-MIYAZAKIIt is an independence symbiosis doing, and a society in each other that can richly spend it 8-OKINAWAHappy society that is given to the rich sun and vast sea area and provided in new energy

2010 to 2050• Desirable society• Priority• service and business• contribute of S&T

etc.

The 1010thth foresight:Scenario planning to address challenges in the future

Combination of user-oriented discussion (backcast) and technology-oriented discussion (forecast).u Developing credible scenarios.u Providing policy options: S&T fields to invest for accelerated R&D toward

target years; technological options to remove bottleneck.

User-oriented discussion (back cast)

Technology-oriented discussion (forecast)

Policy options are derived from both backcast and forecast.

Only technology-oriented discussion doesn’t suit increased uncertainty of society in the future.- Increasing interaction between society and technology- Uncertain shifts in lifestyle and demand structure derived from coming

changes in society, environment and technology system

EvidenceEvidencebasebase

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3. How should we make a sustainable society 持続可能な社会

•• Design of future Design of future 将来の設計将来の設計•• Design Design of future society of future society 将来社会将来社会

Eco systemEco systemClimate Climate change, resourcechange, resource, energy, energy

Social systemSocial systemPolicy, economy, Policy, economy, business, business, technologiestechnologies

Human systemHuman systemLife style, culture, Life style, culture, family, health, safetyfamily, health, safety

PovertyPoverty, food, , food, water,water, wastewaste

Disaster, infection,Disaster, infection,bio diversitybio diversity

Global Global warmingwarming

Consideration of Sustainable Development

The Economist 2010.11.20A special report on Japan:

“ Into the unknown ”

海外も注目

Prediction of POPULATION in Japan 2005 and 2055

２００５年２００５年

２０５５年２０５５年

31

Prediction of world’s water usage and populationpopulationWater usage Million people

20 century

33

Water treatment requires energy• To process of tap water requires energy

• Delivering water from treatment facility to home require energy

• Polluted water needs to treatment with energy before discharge to river/ocean

*東京都のデータより計算これは水使用に関するエネルギーです。実際には昇温のためのエネルギーが必要です。

Are you happy?Comparison of Happiness 幸福度の比較

Survey by Cabinet in Japan, and EU in 2010

HungaryUkraineUKDenmarkJapan

unhappy Very happy

Vision AVision A Vision BVision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production

/recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume

locallyComfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

As for LCS As for LCS visions prepared visions prepared two two different typedifferent type

by Akemi ImagawaSource: http://2050.nies.go.jp

Our future life - Smart houseSmart grid

EV as energy storage (battery)

Electric Power generates with

development of health

Low energy consumption

Renewable energy

Power generation

No HFC

LED lights

Smart meter

Shifting to a Low-Carbon Society

+Refuse

GREENGREEN FLOATFLOAT

“Botanical city” will appear “Botanical city” will appear in the equatorial Pacific islandin the equatorial Pacific island

hight1000 m

1000 m

3000 m

Project Outline

City in the sky

Shop

2000 m500 m 500 m

Plant factory

Natural farmLagoon

Marine Forest・Coral reef・Mangrove

Terrestrial Forest・Natural Farm・Natural Amusement

Marine Forest・Aquafarming

Lagoon

Marine Forest・Beach Resort

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4.Education 教育

•• rank of education rank of education 教育ランク教育ランク•• interesting of science interesting of science 科学への興味科学への興味

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Comparison of ratio of Researcher’s number by performance sector

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The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) by OECD

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PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I)Student (15 years old) Performance in Mathematics, Reading and Science

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Reading 8 14 15 8 4Mathematics 1 6 10 9 7Science 2 2 6 5 4

123456789

101112131415

rank

65 countries in OECD in 2012 data

Japanese

In 2003

• 15 years old - No.2 within 25 countries

• Adult – No.22 within 25 countries

→ problem of education in University? Science literacy?

Comparison of knowledge for Adult and 15 years old

adult

15 years old high

Do you like science?

10 11 12 13 14 15

Years old

ScienceMathematicsScience news

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For more information, please visit http://www.nistep.go.jp

Contact meurashima@nistep.go.jp

Thank you so much for your kind attention

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1970

1980

199019931994

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Japan Similar Altered International

German DelphiⅠJapanese – German ComparisonFranceKorea〔1〕Japanese- German Mini-Delphi U.K.〔1〕

Australia New ZealandAustria

German Delphi Ⅱ South Africa ＡＰＥＣHungary ＥＵ

Korea〔2〕 SwedenU.K.〔2〕Germany Futur IU.K.〔3〕

Japanese 〔1〕Japanese 〔2〕Japanese 〔3〕Japanese 〔4〕

Japanese 〔5〕

Japanese-German Comparison

Japanese-GermanMini- Delphi

Japanese 〔6〕

Japanese 〔7〕

Japanese 〔8〕

1990German Unification1991USSR Collapse

National foresight applications

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Recent Major Events Related to S&T Policy

1994-95 Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ)1995 Science and Technology Basic Law1995-2009 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)1996 1996 Science and Technology Basic Plan Science and Technology Basic Plan （（19961996～～20002000））1998 Law to Promote Technology Transfer from Universities

(Japanese TLO Act)1999 Special Law to Revitalize Industry

(Japanese version of Bayh-Dole Act)2001 22001 2ndnd Science and Technology Basic Plan Science and Technology Basic Plan （（20012001～～2005)2005)

Reestablishment of the Reestablishment of the Gov. Gov. Structure :Structure : CSTP, MEXT etc.CSTP, MEXT etc.2002 Basic Law on Intellectual Property 2004 National 2004 National University University ➭➭ National University National University CorporationCorporation2006 32006 3rdrd Science and Technology Basic Plan (2006Science and Technology Basic Plan (2006～～20102010))2007 “Innovation 25”2009-12 The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)20112011 44th th Science and Technology Basic Plan (2011~2015) Science and Technology Basic Plan (2011~2015) 2012 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)20162016 55th th Science and Technology Basic Plan (Science and Technology Basic Plan (2016~2020) 2016~2020)

1995 1995 HanshinHanshin--Awaji Awaji EarthquakeEarthquake

2011 2011 Tohoku Tohoku EarthquakeEarthquake

Depiction of better life around Depiction of better life around 20252025

51

Various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail.

Individuals can use various types of energy selectively or comprehensively based on their own value judgment and feel that they are contributing to the prevention of global warming and environmental preservation.

A society has begun to respond to various disasters caused by changes in the environment.

Images derived from delphi topics which are predicted around 2025