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Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) )

Junichi Fujino

The 8th AIM International Workshop; 13-15, March 2003National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

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• AIM/Trend: econometric method– Regression methods– AP 42 countries, year of 2032– Grasp overview of country (regional)-level

economic, energy, environmental indicators for development of AIM/CGE(Asia)

• AIM/CGE(Asia): top-down economy model– Computer general equilibrium model– AP 17 countries, year of 2100– Develop socio-economic scenarios based on

economic theory for AIM/Trend, AIM/Enduse, AIM/Material

Role of AIM/Trend and Role of AIM/Trend and AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia))

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• AIM/Trend(world)– Global 14 regions, year of 2050

• AIM/Trend/Biomass– biomass demand

Topics of AIM/TrendTopics of AIM/Trend

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AIM/Trend (world)AIM/Trend (world)JPN JapanOCN Australia and New ZealandCHN ChinaIND IndiaEAA East AsiaSEA South East Asia and OceaniaSOA Other South AsiaUSA USACAN CanadaEUR OECD Europe

Transition Economies EEU CIS and Eastern EuropeMEA Middle EastLAM Latin AmericaAFR Africa

Asia

Other Developing

Other OECD

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GDP scenarioGDP scenario

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GD

P (B

il.U

S$)

AFRLAMMEAEEUEURCANUSASOASEAEAAINDCHNOCNJPN

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COCO22 emissionsemissions

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issi

ons (

Mt-C

)

AFRLAMMEAEEUEURCANUSASOASEAEAAINDCHNOCNJPN

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AIM/Trend/Biomass –Food-

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Vegetable food demand trajectory

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

GDP per capita (1000US$/cap)

Veg

etab

le fo

od (c

al/c

ap/d

ay) AUS

JPNNZLCHNPRKVNMBGDIDNINDKORLKAMMRMYSNPLPAKPHLTHA

AUS,NZL

JPN

KOR

MYSTHAPHL

CHN,IDNIND

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Meat demand trajectory

0200400600800

1000120014001600

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

GDP per capita (1000US$/cap)

Mea

t with

out f

ish

(cal

/cap

/day

)

AUSJPNNZLCHNPRKVNMBGDIDNINDKORLKAMMRMYSNPLPAKPHLTHA

JPN

AUSNZL

KOR

MYSCHN

THA

IDN

IND

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AIM/CGE(ASIA)AIM/CGE(ASIA)• Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive• Program：GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE• Database：GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA and so

on…• Target Year: 2030/2100• Target Region: 26 regions(17 AP countries)• Target Sector: 24 sectors

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Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)

AUS,NZL,CHN,HKG,JPN,KOR,TWN,IDN,MYS,PHL,SGP,THA,VNMBGD,IND,LKA,

Region(26)

CAN,USA,WEU,EEU,FSU,MEA,LAM,AFR,

Sector(24)* EnergyOILCOLGASP_C: Oil productsELY: Electricity

* AgricultureFPR: FoodLUM: WoodAGR: Agricultural

* Energy IntensiveI_S: Iron and steelCRP: ChemicalPPP: Pulp and paperNMM: Non-metalOMN: Mining

* Other industryNFM, TRN, OME,LUM, CNS, TWL, OMF* Other sectorATP, T_TSER, DWECGD

Factor(5)CapitalLaborSkilled LaborResourceLand

ASI,

NPL, PAK, BTN, MDV

ROW

Include other Asia-Pacific countries

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Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia)

production and service

sector

householdgovernment

abroad

market

producedgoods and service

capitallabor

intermediate,energy,

capital, labor

importexportfinal

demand

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Modification of energy supply

• Fossil fuel resource• Renewable energy• Energy conversion (electricity)• Monetary balance and physical balance

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Fossil fuel productioncrude oil, natural gas, coal production

Intermediateproducts

capital labor resource

05 0

1 0 01 5 02 0 02 5 03 0 03 5 04 0 0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0

c ru d e o i l r e s o u rc e (M to e )

pro

duc

tion

cost

($/to

e)

C h in a In d ia M a la y s ia In d o n e s ia A u s t r a l ia

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Bioenergy productionplantation bioenergy

Intermediateproducts

capital labor land

residue bioenergy

Intermediateproducts

capital labor

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Electricity generation (hydro power)electricity

Intermediateproducts

capital labor resource

012345678

0 5 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 2 ,0 0 0 2 ,5 0 0

re s o u rc e (T W h / y r )

cost

(cent/

kWh)

C h in a In d ia M a la y s ia N e p a l

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Reconciliation Module for Reconciliation Module for AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) model) model

Database

IEA; energy balanceprice

ReconciledDatasetfor CGE

GTAP ver.5

ReconciliationModule

Data ProcessModule

AIM/CGE(Asia)

ReconciledDatasetfor CGE

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Comparison between GTAP and IEA(Japan, Gas)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

GA

SELY

OIL

P_C I_S

CR

PN

FM

NM

TR

NO

ME

OM

NFP

RP

PP

LU

MC

NS

TW

LA

GR

ATP

T_T

SER

CG

D

GTA

P(1

0bi

l$)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

IEA

(EJ)

GTAP IEA

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Comparison between GTAP and IEA(Japan, Electricity)

0.01

0.1

1

10

GA

SELY

CO

LI_S

CR

PN

FM

NM

MTR

NO

ME

OM

NFP

RP

PP

LU

MC

NS

TW

LA

GR

ATP

T_T

SER

GTA

P(1

0bi

l$)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

IEA

(TW

h)

GTAP IEA

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AIM(China)

AIM(ASEAN)

AIM(Other Asia)

AIM(India)

AIM/CGE/ASIA（Asia17 regions ）

AIM(Rest of the World)

AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) and ) and AIM(countryAIM(country))

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Next stepsNext steps• AIM/Trend

– Development of biomass part, non-CO2 gas part– More user-friendly interface

• AIM/CGE(Asia)Develop 1st version– Collecting and modifying energy data– Monetary balance and physical balance– Including economic characteristics (ex. failure of

market, unemployment)– Technology description (ex. induced technology)