current situation in turkish steel … steel committee meeting...current situation in turkish steel...
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CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKISH STEEL INDUSTRY & OUTLOOK
86th OECD Steel Committee Meeting
Dr. Veysel YayanSecretary General
Turkish Steel Producers Association
25-26 March 2019Paris
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Development of Turkish Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP 0,7 -4,7 9 8,8 2,2 4 2,9 6,1 2,9 7,4 2,6
Construction -8,1 -16,3 17,1 11,5 0,6 7,2 2,2 4,9 5,4 8,9 -1,9
Manufacturing -0,1 -7 13,3 10 1,9 3,8 3,7 5,9 3,8 8,8 1,1
Steel Industry 4,1 -5,6 15,2 17 5,2 -3,4 -1,8 -7,4 5,2 13,2 -0,6
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Construction Manufacturing Steel Industry
Steel Using Industries - Construction
3
17.1
11.5
0.6
7.2
2.2
4.95.4
9,0
-1.9
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Steel Using Industries - Manufacturing
4
13.3
10
1.9
3.8 3.7
5.9
3.8
9.1
1.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Production Index
5Source: TurkStat
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
GDP Growth Rate (%)
6
2.1
4,0
2.9
4,0
3.2
7.4
2.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Turkey’s Total Steel Trade (million tons)
7Source: TurkStat
17.618.5
20.319,0
18,016.7 16.9
18.3
22.1
11.1 10.711.9
14.913.8
19,017.5
16.3
14.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Export Import
Turkey’s Net Total Steel Export (milion tons)
8Source: TurkStat
6.5
7.88.4
4.1 4.2
-2.3
-0.6
2.0
7.6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Turkey’s Total Steel Export/Import Ratio ($), %
9
133.2
140.5
152.5
123.0126.5
95.399
108.1
138.0
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
145.0
155.0
165.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Steel Production of Turkey (Mt) & y-o-y Growth (%)
10
29.1 34.1 35.9 34.7 34.0 31.5 33.2 37.5 37.3 6.2 5.2
15.217,0
5.2
-3.4-1.8
-7.4
5.2
13.2
-0.6
-16.1
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-2m 2019-2m
Production Growth (%)
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production Capacity, Production (mt) & Capacity Utilisation (%)
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84.680.5 78.6
66.1 68.272.4 73.2
70.467.8
62.5 64.4
73.2 71.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Production Capacity CU %
Turkey’s Finished Steel Production (Mt)
12
26.3
31.934.3
36.4 36.1 36.9 36.939.1 38.6
4.6
21.5
7.3 6.2
-0.9
2.3-0.2
6.2
-1.1
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Production Change %
Turkey’s Finished Steel Consumption (Mt)
13
23.626.9
28.531.3 30.7
34.4 34.136.1
30.6
12.414.2
5.6
10,0
-1.8
11.8
-0.9
5.8
-14.9
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumption Change %
Conclusion
• Protectionist policies, high exchange rate volatilities and contraction indomestic demand, affected crude steel production negatively. In 2018,crude steel production decreased by 0.6%.
• Due to these developments, during the first 2 months of the year,production decreased by 16.1% and capacity utilization rate declinedfrom 71.9% to 60.2%.
• The contraction experienced in domestic consumption, led steelproducers to turn to export market. Thus, in 2018 Turkey's steel exportsincreased by 20.5%.
• Because of the protectionist measures that are being implementedworldwide, we are expecting that, starting from the second quarter ofthe year, export will decrease gradually.
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