current market & implications for property...
TRANSCRIPT
Currentmarket&implicationsforpropertylitigators
JasonButlerFPFSCFPCMCharteredFCSI@jbthewealthmanhttps://
uk.linkedin.com/in/jasonfbutler@=money
ValueofUKrealestate
Residen>al£6.17tn
Non-residen>al£683bn
Source:BritishPropertyFederation
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Stampdutylandtax(SDLT)
Residen>al Non-residen>al
Pre12/14 Post12/14 NonPPRrate04/16
Pre03/16 Post03/16
£500,000 15,000 15,000 30,000 15,000 14,500
£1M 40,000 43,750 73,500 40,000 39,500
£2.5M 175,000 213,750 288,750 100,000 114,500
£5M 350,000 513,750 663,750 200,000 239,500
£10M 700,000 1,113,750
1,413,750
400,000 489,500
Annualtaxonenvelopeddwellings(ATED)
Property value Annual charge
More than £500,000 but not more than £1 million £3,500
More than £1 million but not more than £2 million £7,000
More than £2 million but not more than £5 million £23,350
More than £5 million but not more than £10 million £54,450
More than £10 million but not more than £20 million £109,050
More than £20 million £218,200
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“Asacapitalintensiveindustry,realestateisgoingtobereallybadlyhitbytheseproposals.”
MelanieLeechCEOBritishPropertyFedera^on
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Non-residentUKpropertydevelopmenttaskforce:HMRCtarge^ng100‘offshorestructuresusedtoavoidtaxon
profitsandrentalincomefrompropertydevelopmentintheUK.’
FinanceAct2016–Non-residentcompaniespayUKcorpora^ononprofitsarisingfromUKpropertydevelopment
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UK house prices, 2015
210k
...
.
205k
Q) u � c.
200k
"�Q') ><!
195k
190k
Mar '15 May '15 Jul '15 Sep '15 Nov '15
+ House prices
Halifax house prices index
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Luxury property in a spin ' "·
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--� London -rfy rr...sacions ht.-. falltn drlffllncallv ovt< 5 v-a,s as �u ,_. l>ave 1t1, 1_,. P<OQe<•tt1 1or we a, ths 1tve1
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NineElms
“Challengingconditionsasaresultofincreasingsupply.”
CAPCO
LillieSquare
NumberofCentralLondon£1M+unitssoldin2014
3,900(highestever)
NumberofCentralLondon£1M+unitsunderconstruc>onorgrantedplanningpermission
54,000
“Ifwehaveamodestdeclineof10-20%thenIdon’tthinkwewillseewholesaleadministra^onsorbankruptcies,butifpricesfallbeyondthat,thereiscertainlyarisk.”
HemantKotakGreenStreetAdvisors
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“TheLondonpropertymarkethasbeenskewedbylaunderedmoney.Pricesarebeingar^ficiallydrivenupbyoverseascriminalswhowanttosequestertheirassetshereintheUK.”
DonaldToonHeadofNationalCrimeAgency
“It’sanaccidentwai^ngtohappen.WehavealotofcashinRonsonCapitalandIthinktherewillbeveryinteres^ngopportuni^estopickupresiden^alproper^esoverthenexttwotothreeyears.I’mfillingupthewarchest.”
GeraldRonson–SundayTimes3.04.16
Growth of Generation Rent Tenure of 25 ro 29-year-olds (%)
70
• Private Rentals 60 Mortgagor Households 50
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1977
Source. ONS
40
30
20
10
0
87 98 2007 14
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Source:Henderson
{
Directglobalpropertyinvestment
2007$758bn
2015$700bn
Ins^tu^ons‘…remainsignificantlyunder-invested’by110bpscomparedtotheirowntargets.
CornellUniversity&HodesWeillresearch
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30%Increaseinstaffcostsby2020
“Subdued”Savills
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a general election
Data source - Jefferies
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House price growth before and after a general election Data: Jefferies
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Scottish house prices fall after strong growth
217.5
215
x "C c: .c: ,:: 0 �
212.5
"' 210
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202.5 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
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“HSBCcouldswitch1,000bankingjobstoFranceafteraBrexitvote.”Guardian15/02/16
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“I’m very British and I believe in Britain and I like to buy British. But 50pc of our 14,000 subbies [subcontractors] are from Eastern Europe. [Brexit] would make a massive difference.”
Tony Pidgley Chairman Berkeley Group
Highcharts.com
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FTpollof100economistsinJan2016
ThreequartersthoughtBREXITwouldadverselyaffectUKmediumterm
economicprospects
Highcharts.com
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KPMGpollof25globalrealestateinvestorswith$400bnundermanagement
TwothirdsbelievethatBREXITwillresultinlessinwardinvestmentinUK
propertyandpropertycompanies
Highcharts.com
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Agoldenageforpropertyli^gators
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ThankyouPleasefeelfreetoconnectwithme:
! @jbthewealthman
! https://uk.linkedin.com/in/jasonfbutler
@=money