1. 1. by Arifin Abdul LatifArifin Abdul Latif Founder&SeniorConsultant/EconomistFounder&SeniorConsultant/Economist ArifinLatif ConsultingArifinLatif Consulting Current Global &Current Global & Malaysian EconomicMalaysian Economic & Market Outlook:& Market Outlook: an Economican Economic Chartist's ViewpointsChartist's Viewpoints 6 May 20156 May 2015 RHBTechnical Analysis Day 6 May SeminarRHBTechnical Analysis Day 6 May Seminar @ DoubleTreebyHilton, KualaLumpur@ DoubleTreebyHilton, KualaLumpur
2. 2. ** I'll be using my own technical analysis softwares (Advanced GETand MetaStock 11) for the purpose of charting (I shall run through using latest updated data on my lappy during TA Day) Listofchartsrequested foranalyses** q Equities - Dow, NASDAQ, Dax, SENSEX, SHCOMP, HSI, STI, KLCI, JCI and SET q Currencymarket - Dollar Index, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Ringgit and Sing Dollar q Commodities - WTI and Brent Crude oil, Soybean and CPO q SafeHaveninstruments- US Treasury, German Bund and Gold q
3. 3. Otheranalyses** Cyclical analysis to cover the long term forecasting part/ megatrend forecasts which I have done before in my crude oil forecasts for my The EDGE's published articles. Ill fall upon my Masters Degree (MADE) thesis from ANUCanberra - specialising in 'stock market economics for specific deliberations. Postcript: Thanksforlendingyourears~ mayyouhavegainsameextra insightsfrompersonal experienceswehaveshared amongusforthebettermentof ourprofessionalcareer. Worktogether,worksmartto succeed!Keepintouch..allof you!
4. 4. Talkingpointstocover In Malaysiacontext How low Ringgitor How strong dollar can go? Sub topic If Greece leave European Monetary Union, EMU, where would Euro go? Money is flowing out of China. Can China keep strong CNY? JPY is Japan done with its QE or more to come going forward? CNY and JPY, if they remain weak Ringgit will stay weak right? Crude has we bottom?, and how high can it go from here?. CPO now stuckwithin 2000/2100 to 2400/2500. When will we break this range? To the upside or downside?
5. 5. Talkingpointstocover In Globalcontext 4. Howlong will the world see lowyield? If US raise interest rate, how high US Yield (US 10 year yield) can go? 5. Other issues ShanghaiComposite at 4400, now what? 6. Nasdaq close new high how high can it go?
6. 6. Questionspostedforanalysesare currentlyhotintheNEWS Keep abreast with the LATEST!
7. 7. Chartist (30Apr15) Daily Trademaps forFBM KLCITurtle tradesignalemerges~ withthe comingof MichaelCovel?
8. 8. Chartist (30Apr15) myContactwith MichaelCovel viaFacebook
9. 9. Charts& EWA (27Apr15) TheOriginaltextofElliot Wave Principle
10. 10. Charts& EWA (27Apr15)Technical AnalysisusingAdvanced GET-with AndyBushak (Nov13-14,1993)
11. 11. Charts&EWA (27Apr15)Myoldmanuscriptjottings... TrekkingtheKLCI'smegatrendWave3is nevertheshortest!...andthatWave3 insofarasKLCIisconcerned
12. 12. Crudeoil (27Apr15) Mixedviews onreport aboutoil hittingUS$100bySeptember
13. 13. Someofmyprevious articlesonCrudeoilforecastspublished inThe EDGE Malaysia
14. 14. Currencies (2 May 15) Hedging the Ringgit
15. 15. Currencies (30 Apr 15) Ringgit strengthens
16. 16. QE (30 Apr 15) Abenomics & Obama
17. 17. Charts & ETP (4 May 15) My megatrend chart, from cyclical analysis and time clusters, for FBM KLCI points towards the realisation for GTP+ETP & Vision 2020
18. 18. Charts & ETP (4 May 15) Transformation Unplugged Staying the course by IDRIS JALA
19. 19. Transformation -Transformation - SomeSome definitions,definitions, directions...?directions...? q Transformation towards what end? Transforming Traditional/ Agrarian Societies e.g. Cambodia - From killing fields to economic transformation. Transformation to Transition Economies e.g. Turkmenistan From USSR republic to CIS nation. Transformation to NICs ~ Tigers/Lions? e.g. Malaysia/ Nigeria. Transformation to High Income Nation ~ 1Malaysia towards Realising Vision 2020. Capacity building training in Ashgabad (1998) & Lagos (2000). q Transformation is a fashionable, buzzword today!
20. 20. q Transformation with political will/ agenda Government Transformation Program (GTP) Najibnomics Economic Transformation Program (ETP) NKEAs; 10th Malaysia Plan; Economic Corridors (NCER, ECER, Iskandar, SCORE) Budget 2013 & 2014 Najib: nobody is left out!
21. 21. Biz Talk Live! (Bernama TV) ~Biz Talk Live! (Bernama TV) ~ ETP Is it onETP Is it on Track?Track?
22. 22. Live! interview on BERNAMA TV (15 Dec 2012 @9.30pm 1 hour) Live! interview invited at short notice, off-the-cuff interactions with audiences on-the-air/online (on twitter), etc.
23. 23. Live! interview invited at short notice, off-the-cuff interactions with audiences on-the-air/online (on twitter), etc. Latest Updates! PM Najib live! on Air! & PEMANDUs Scorecard (4 May 2015)
24. 24. Both strategies are dooBoth strategies are doomed to fail us so avoidmed to fail us so avoid them! So, how far shoulthem! So, how far should KLCI grow or climb?d KLCI grow or climb?
25. 25. Charting using Advanced GET, among the best charting software from the West! List of charts requested for analyses** q Equities - Dow, NASDAQ, Dax, SENSEX, SHCOMP, HSI, STI, KLCI, JCI and SET q Currency market - Dollar Index, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Ringgit and Sing Dollar q Commodities - WTI and Brent Crude oil, Soybean and CPO q Safe Haven instruments - US Treasury, German Bund and Gold q
26. 26. GTP/ETP: High Income EcoGTP/ETP: High Income Economy & 2020 achievanomy & 2020 achievableble with KLCI megatrendwith KLCI megatrend @@magical 2000 levelmagical 2000 level
27. 27. KLCI intermediate (weekly) trend analysis byKLCI intermediate (weekly) trend analysis by Elliot Wave Analysis (EWA) using Advanced GETElliot Wave Analysis (EWA) using Advanced GET
28. 28. KLCI minor (daily) trend analysis byKLCI minor (daily) trend analysis by Elliot Wave Analysis (EWA) using Advanced GETElliot Wave Analysis (EWA) using Advanced GET
29. 29. Charting using MetaStock 11 ~ applying Beyond Candlesticks (among the oldest charting techniques to have emerged from Japan/ Nippon! q Bermuda Triangle Analysis (BTA) - my personal technique adapted/developed, published in The EDGE Malaysia series of articles. q List of types of Beyond Candlesticks charts*** q q 3 Line Break chart*** q Renko chart*** q q Kagi chart***q
30. 30. KLCI minor (daily) trend analysis byKLCI minor (daily) trend analysis by Bermuda Triangle Analysis (BTA) using MetaStock 11Bermuda Triangle Analysis (BTA) using MetaStock 11
31. 31. KLCI minor (daily) trend analysis byKLCI minor (daily) trend analysis by 3 Line Break using MetaStock 113 Line Break using MetaStock 11
32. 32. KLCI minor (daily) trend analysis byKLCI minor (daily) trend analysis by 5 Pt Renko chart using MetaStock 115 Pt Renko chart using MetaStock 11
33. 33. KLCI minor (daily) trend analysis byKLCI minor (daily) trend analysis by 0.05% Kagi chart using MetaStock 110.05% Kagi chart using MetaStock 11
34. 34. Concepts/ChartingConcepts/Charting Techniques/ThemeTechniques/Theme ss published inpublished in TheThe EDGEEDGE MalaysiaMalaysia List of Concepts/ChartingConcepts/Charting Techniques/ThemesTechniques/Themes developed & writtendeveloped & written in The EDGE Malaysia series of articles. q In Search of the Three Buddhas q Bermuda Triangle/Rhu Muda Triangle Analyses (BTA) q Lord of the Rings (LOTR) trilogy journey of stock prices q In Search of the Da Vinci Code application to KLCI
35. 35. Arifin Abdul Latif PMP, AMN Honorary Fellow (MATA), MADE (ANU), BAgrSc (UPM), Unclassified Studies (UBC), BMITA (Cranfield), Privatisation (IDS Sussex), ICRET (UPLB), R&D Management (KOICA/KITA) ArifinLatif Consulting Founder & Chief Consultant/ Economist (since 1991) Freelance Consultant on Analysis & Forecasting of Economic & Stock Market Trends @Taman Tun Dr Ismail, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Postcript: Thanks for lending your ears ~ may you have gain same extra insights from personal experiences we have shared among us for the betterment of our professional career. Work together, work smart to succeed! Keep in touch.. all of you! Thank you & terima kasih, Wassalaaam
36. 36. My CV (top page) My Curriculum Vitae (top page)
37. 37. My Professional & Online Referrrals My Professional & Online Referrrals
38. 38. I was among the earliest Malaysias LinkedIn member Im an active nerd on LinkedIn..!!
39. 39. and was among the earliest Facebook member too! I was a pioneering FaceBook addict