National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly

Winter Storm Saturday afternoon into Sunday

February 21-22, 2015

• Briefing #4, prepared 430 PM EST Friday, February 20, 2015 by Meteorologists at NWS - WFO Mount Holly, NJ

• To promote situational awareness for the emergency management community and for other partners.

• To provide guidance for planning efforts.

• The briefing applies to the WFO Mount Holly service area which is shaded in green on the map.

National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly

• Very cold temperatures are expected again tonight, with lows ranging from 5

degrees below zero in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey to around 5 degrees

elsewhere. However, there won’t be much wind, so it won’t feel quite as bad as last

night.

• Then another storm will approach from the west on Saturday. Very cold

temperatures in the morning will slowly warm through the day, but precipitation is

expected to begin as snow Saturday afternoon across our entire County Warning

Area (CWA). Then, as warmer air moves north, snow will change briefly to sleet,

then rain, from south to north. By evening, rain or rain/snow/sleet mixture is

expected in Philadelphia and points south, but with so much entrenched cold air,

the transition will take longer further north. For instance, the Lehigh Valley and

central New Jersey may not transition to rain until Sunday morning. Please see

attached maps for snowfall forecasts.

• Where rain makes contact with very cold surfaces, ice buildup could occur.

However, right now we don’t see this as a widespread problem.

• Precipitation will end from west to east on Sunday as another arctic cold front

moves in, bringing below normal temperatures to the region for the beginning of the

new week.

• Northwest winds will bring low-water conditions on the ocean front, as well as both

the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays (including tidal Delaware River), at the time of

low tide tonight, and perhaps again at the time of low tide on Saturday.

Executive Summary

National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly

Snow Potential Saturday Afternoon into Sunday (February 21-22)

Expect at least this much Potential for this much Official NWS Forecast

Minimum Most Likely

Maximum

Snowfall maps available at weather.gov/phi/winter/

National Weather Service

Philadelphia/Mt. Holly

Questions? • For the latest information, visit our website at:

– www.weather.gov/phi

• Our latest briefing package is available from our website at:

– http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

• If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice.

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• You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly

• Please contact us if you have any questions.

• Gary.Szatkowski@noaa.gov – Office 609-261-6602 x222

• Joseph.Miketta@noaa.gov – Office 609-261-6602 x223