LTP 1 W chng

53.6850 1.31

71.5527 -0.24

59.4400 0.34

84.9896 1.06

1M 3M 6M 12M

53.90 54.46 55.31 56.8

USD EUR GBP JPY

53.8515 71.7210 85.2550 60.3000

India US EU

Int. Rate 8.00% 0.25% 0.75%

CPI (YoY) 9.55% 1.70% 2.20%

LTP 1 W chng.

6019 0.17

13649 1.89

2317 -1.11

2723 1.19

LTP 1 W chng.

1668 -1.53

95.56 0.24

367.65 -0.01

EURO STOXX

GOLD ($/Oz)

CRUDE OIL ($/barrel)

COPPER ($/MT)

USD INR

EUR INR

JPY INR

GBP INR

Indices

NIFTY

DOW JONES

SHANGHAI

CURRENCY RESEARCH Currency Weekly

25th January 2013

research@bmastock.com

033 40110252

Economic News

FII against INR

USD INR Forwards

RBI Reference Rate

Interest Rates & Inflation

Indices

Commodity

Currency

• The dollar briefly pared gains against the yen on Friday after U.S. new home sales last month came in lower than expected. Sales of new U.S. single family homes fell 7.3 percent to 369,000-unit annual rate in December, below the 385,000-unit consensus forecast.

• Canada's annual inflation rate in December remained at a three-year low of 0.8 percent, emphasizing how little pressure there is on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, Statistics Canada data indicated on Friday.

• The euro climbed to an 11-month peak against the dollar and a 21-month high versus the yen on Friday after the European Central Bank said banks will repay 137 billion Euros in loans, reinforcing the view that the region's banking system is on the mend.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s unprecedented bond buying pushed the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3 trillion as he shows no sign of softening his effort to bring down 7.8 percent unemployment.

• Asian currencies fell this week by the most since July as a slide in the yen fanned concern regional central banks will intervene to prevent gains that may hurt exports.

50.00

52.00

54.00

56.00

58.00

60.00

0

200

400

600

800

1000

10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan

FII vs. USDINR

FII (LHS) USDINR (RHS)

28th Jan,2013 29th Jan 2013 30th Jan 2013

S1 S2 R1 R2

53.4400 53.0300 54.6500 55.4400

India's central bank relaxed some of the rules for foreign institutional investors (FIIs) buying into domestic debt as part of the government's long-

expected $10 billion increase in corporate and government debt limits. The increase in FII limits will bring in more dollar inflows and help the

rupee, prompting some exporters to liquidate their dollar holdings at current levels. Demand from oil firms also stronger due to the approaching

month-end, when firms need to pay for their imports.

The rupee is expected to trade in a range until the Reserve

Bank of India's critical policy review on Tuesday, when the

central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25

basis points. Overall the trend is negative below 54.20 (spot)

closing basis. Weekly sup: 53.40-52.90; Res: 54.24-54.57.

31st Jan 2013 01st Feb 2013

Data Releases

Technical Check

Outlook

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• US Non-farm Employment Change

• US Unemployment Rate

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI

• USD Unemployment Claims

• US Chalengers Job Cuts

• US Personal Spending

• US CB Consumer Confidence

• US Core Durable Goods Orders

• US Pending Home Sales

• US ADp Non Farm Employment Change

• US Adavance GDP q/q