Cumulative effects and interactions

in human-environmental systemsAn interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral

perspective

Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat

IIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer

Professor Earth System Science

Wageningen, Netherlands

OostEen parachutisctische durfaldook vlak bij het wad op een veestal.Hij zei: Ik weet best: het vliegveld is west, Ik snap niet waaroom ik op Oost val.

Jan Heemskerk (2006)

53 Texelse Limericks

THE EARLY 1970s

Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA

International, independent,

interdisciplinary

Research on major global

problems

Solution oriented, integrated

systems analysis

24 MEMBER COUNTRIES (NMOs)

24 MEMBER COUNTRIES

Representing:

71% of the world’s economy US$54,797,000 million from World GDP of US$77,302,000 million

(including 8 of the world’s 10 largest economies)

63% of the world’s population4,599.7 million people from World population of 7,247.9 million

Sources: GDP figures from IMF (2014); population figures from IIASA (2015)

IIASA TRULY INTERNATIONAL

Today’s

IIASA

• 1,445 visitors & collaborators in 2014

• Plus ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,505 people worldwide)

remain actively involved in IIASA research

• Plus ~600 partner institutions

• In sum, ~2500 researchers from some 65 countries

involved in IIASA’s research network (external faculty)

• And it is not just research networks: IIASA researchers

took part in 112 advisory boards and steering

committees in 2014

INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENTISTS

30%

41%

29%Natural Scientists &Engineers

Economists & otherSocial Scientists

Mathematicians andothers

IIASA’s Systems Science Approach

• Integrated

• Interdisciplinary

• International

• Independent

• Solution-oriented

• Long term

• Trade offs

=Systems

Analysis

EXAMPLES OF EARLY RESEARCH

1978 1981 1986 19901983

Food

&

Water

Poverty

&

Equity

IIASA RESEARCH STRATEGY

Energy

&

Climate

Change

IIASA HIGHLIGHTS 2011-2015

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/achievements/Highlights.html

NEW IIASA RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

Integrated

Solutions for

Sustainability

Transformations

Natural

Systems

Technology &

Infrastructure

Systems Human & Social

Systems

Integrated Systems

Analysis

Science, Policy, Society

Partnerships

Systems Approaches for Global

Transformations

IIASA Research Plan 2016 – 2020

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/leadership/strategicplan/IIASA-

Research-Plan2015-2020.pdf

Example of the Benefits of Systems Thinking:

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT

16Source: GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press and IIASA

• Launched in 2012 at Rio +20 Summit

• Outcomes include defining the aspirational yet

feasible objectives for the UN Secretary-

General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative:

1. Ensure universal access to modern

energy services by 2030

2. Double the global rate of improvements in

energy efficiency by 2030

3. Double the share of renewable energy in

the global energy mix by 2030

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mikrochip

Kommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

Vakuumröhre

Ottomotor

Elektrischer

MotorDampf-

maschine

Nuklear-

energie

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS

Coal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,

and behavior)

~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal

Po

licy

Co

sts

(20

10

-20

30)

Added costs of ES and

PH are comparatively

low when CC is taken as

an entry point

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

Cumulative and Complex Adaptive Systems in

Marine and Coastal Environments( examples/vignettes after & in collaboration with Dr.Ulf Dieckmann,

Director IIASA Evolution and Ecology (EEP) Programme

Rapid adaptation

Interdependent agents

Emergent phenomena

Tipping points

Self-organized criticality

Social dilemmas

Stakeholder diversity

Rapid

Adaptation

Two Types of Adaptation

• Biological evolution

operates through genetic change (slower)

• Cultural evolution

operates through social learning (faster)

Two Common Misperceptions

• Biological evolution is always slow

On the contrary, rapid contemporary evolution is

widespread, in particular in response to

anthropogenic environmental change

• Biological evolution is always optimizing

On the contrary, selection operates at the individual

level, implying that population-level features will rarely

get optimized by evolution

• Evolutionary responses of stocks to modern

fishing pressures are inevitable

• Significant evolution can occur within just a

few generations

• Evolutionary changes are not necessarily

beneficial

• Evolutionary changes will often be difficult to

reverse

Example: Modern Fisheries

Which Traits Are at Risk?

• Age and size at maturation

Reproducing late is impossible

• Reproductive effort

Saving for future seasons is futile

• Growth rate

Staying below mesh size prolongs life

• Morphology and behavior

Avoiding fishing gear is advantageous

© Google Earth

Feeding groundsBarents Sea,mature & juvenile fish

Spawning groundsNorwegian coast,only mature fish

With a catch of 400,000 tonnes per year, Northeast Arctic cod is

one of the most important European fish stocks

Northeast Arctic Cod: Stock

Structure

Len

gth

at

50%

mat

ura

tio

n

pro

bab

ility

at

age

7 (c

m)

1930 1970 2005

70

100

90

80

This shift in maturation schedule contributes to a drop in maturation age from 9-10 years to 6-7 years and reduces initial egg production by about 50%

Until about 1970

Today

Northeast Arctic Cod: Evolutionary Change

0 100Time (years)

Currentfishing

Ag

e at

mat

ura

tio

n (

year

s)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Historicalfishing

Eco-genetic model of Northeast Arctic cod

Fast Pace of Evolutionary Decline

ca. 40 yearsTo

da

y

Ag

e at

mat

ura

tio

n (

year

s)

Historicalfishing

0 100Time (years)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Currentfishing

Eco-genetic model of Northeast Arctic cod

Slow Pace of Evolutionary Recovery

To

da

y

ca. 250 years

Inter-

dependent

Agents

A few rich cooperators suffice to enable cooperation under adverse conditions

With wealth inequality Without wealth inequality

Blue: cooperators, red: defectors, bright: rich sites, dark: poor sites

Social planners can maximize cooperation by managing wealth inequality

High temptation to defect Low temptation to defect

0% Fraction of rich sites 100%

Contr

ast

betw

een r

ich a

nd p

oor

sites

0% Fraction of rich sites 100%

Making just 10% of sites

3 times richer greatly

improves cooperation

Planners can move along

iso-wealth curves to

maximize cooperation

For low

temptation to

defect, as in

societies with

strong

institutional or

social control, the

situation

reverses: full

equity now

maximizes

cooperation

Social

Dilemmas

Global climateBeneficial

demography

Clean airPrudent

urbanization Social welfare

Internet Fish and game Communal land

Civil security

Common Goods and Social Dilemmas

Garrett Hardin

Open-access resources that are utilized unrestrictedly tend to suffer from overexploitation and will often collapse through a ‘tragedy of the commons’, in which the selfish actions of individuals jeopardize a common good

Framing the Social Dilemma

• Conventional (‘Tragedy of the Commons’)

– Foster cooperation despite selfish behavior

– Emergence of social institutions

– Insights from game theory

• Broadened framing

– Account for plural rationalities

– Emergence of socially inclusive institutions

– Insights from cultural theory

Inclusive Governance

• Recognizes stakeholder views, and therefore

accounts for their heterogeneity in terms of age,

sex, income, race, interests…

• According to cultural theory, it is critical to also

account for worldviews:

– Individualism (choice, markets)

– Egalitarianism (moral stance, communal)

– Hierarchism (control, regulation)

– Fatalism (life is a lottery)

Stakeholder

Diversity

Approaches for Social Planners

When agents are heterogeneous, social planners can

• Analyze stakeholder impacts

• Optimize for one stakeholder or objective

• Optimize across stakeholders or objectives

• Promote compromise across stakeholders

Integrated Bioeconomic Model

Northeast Arctic cod

Ca. 460,000 tonnes

Derived Harvest Control Rules

Adult biomass (1000 tonnes)

Harvest-control rules are politically

negotiated without support from

quantitative modeling

Our assessment is process-based,

couples an individual-based

biological model with an economic

model, and accounts for three

alternative objectives

Current rule maximizes profit,

while alternative objectives lead to

more aggressive exploitation

Yield-maximizing HCR

(Johannesburg World

Summit 2002)

Welfare-maximizing HCRCurrent HCRProfit-maximizing HCR

Hilborn 2007: “Zone of New Consensus”

0 Population crash

Yield

Fishing effort

Ben

efit

s (u

tilit

y)

EmploymentProfit

Ecosystem preservation

Zone of traditional

fisheries

management

Zone of

new

consensus

Integrated Assessment

1. Biological model

Northeast Arctic cod,

Barents Sea capelin

2. Socio-economic model

Fleet costs, revenues, and effort-employment

relationships estimated from profitability

surveys by the Norwegian Fisheries Directorate

3. Stakeholder model

Heterogenous preferences

Stakeholder Preferences

Yield Employ-

mentProfit

Preser-

vation

Industrial fishers 30% 70%

Artisanal fishers 50% 10% 10% 30%

Employment-oriented community 20% 50% 30%

Profit-oriented community 20% 60% 20%

Conservationists 10% 20% 20% 50%

Area of joint satisfaction: Consensus most likely

Stakeholder A Stakeholder B

Mapping the Zone of Consensus

Mapping the Zone of Consensus

Harvest proportion (%)

Min

imu

m s

ize

(cm

)

Capelin Cod

0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100

50

1

00

15

0

5

10

1

5

20

70%

90%Status quo

Status quo

A propos: The Anthropocene

• For the first time in the Earth’s history are the major

processes dominated by a single species:

• Homo (not-so much) -sapiens ?

• The current era is therefore so unique that is has been

labeled the ‘Anthropocene’

• What are the consequences and can we manage

this?

The UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Washington Post

30 March 2005

VISION…..

If one does not know

to which port one is

sailing, no wind is

favorable

Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65)

Photo: David McGrath

The Renaissance vision

Sir Isaac NewtonPrincipia

The Renaissance vision

Young

Wadden

Academy

here

Sir Isaac Newton

????

Principia

Terrestris Rationis PrincipiaThe Anthropocene vision

VuurtorenwachterEen vuurtorenwachter, die zei:“Mijn vak maakt me nietaltijd blij.Want soms staat mijn lichtop het naaktstrand gericht, maar dan flitst het er te snelvoorbij.”

Jan Heemskerk(2006)

53 Texelse Limericks

Thank you and welcome soon at

IIASA !!