culinary tides, inc. - chicago ift chicago ct 4.19.pdf · how to use strategic thinking to navigate...
TRANSCRIPT
How to Use Strategic Thinking to Navigate 2019 Consumer, Beverage, Food & Flavor Trends
Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco, President Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian
What We Do … We help food industry partners
navigate trends by revealing relevant patterns so they can create meaningful products that connect
with customers
Who We Work With: All food industry segments
including Food Service, Retail, Commodity Boards, & Ingredient
Suppliers
• Our team looks for patterns in Chaos to aid strategy • We specialize in foretelling a trend’s birth and
forecasting its trajectory, personality , & longevity • Our forecast results are used to create
– Entrance – Navigation – Exit strategies
Where We Fit … With your Forecasting Department: Strategy, Marketing, Consumer Insights
We work with the team responsible for pushing trend information out to other groups
Forecasting Analytics: Linear vs. AI vs. Chaos
Linear • Research: Quantitative data • Business Intelligence: Statistical models • Sources: Survey, Sales research • Limits: Linear can’t
⁻ Forecast new birth ⁻ Explain trend origin ⁻ Cross analyze unrelated topics ⁻ Foresee upcoming changes ⁻ Consider influencers
• Forecast: Static: Can’t consider future influencers
• Use: Tracking, not forecasting
AI • Research: Quantitative data • Business Intelligence:
Statistical models • Sources: Statistics, Programmed • Limits: AI can’t:
– Search natural language – Analyze new situations – Cross analyze unrelated topics – Investigate abstract reasoning – Search unclassified data – Reason, no common sense
• Forecast: Static: Can’t consider future influencers
• Use: Tracking, not forecasting
Chaos • Research: Quantitative data • Military Intelligence: Chaos models • Sources: Unlimited: Survey, Sales,
Government, Technology, Competitor, Adversary, Ally, Health, Behavioral, Food, Beverage Research, AI
• Limits: – Analysts = “natural pattern
recognizers”, 4% of population – Time Consuming
• Forecast: Variable: Considers future influencers
• Use: Tracking & Forecasting
Consumers
Emotion Stall
Stall Action Reaction
Clanning
Dark Travel
Sustainable
Healing Control
Post War / Apocalyptic
Distrust Safety
Story / History
Authentic
Grounded
Safe
Local
Fair Trade
Organic Regionalism
Sharables
Seek Alliances, Safety, Familiarity
Food & Beverage
Comfort returns
Safe experimentation Mindful choices
Solo dining
Clockless eating Clanning Brand agnostic
BEHAVIOR
Consumer Forecast 2019
Animal welfare Food waste
Repurposing Seasonal
Organic Conscious consumption
SUSTAINABILITY
CONSUMERS
Portion options
Allergens
History, legacy, roots
Transparency Familiar ingredients
Authentic
Customization
CONTROL, SAFETY, SECURITY
Traceability
Protein
Balance
Fermented
Invisibly healthy
Guilt free + Benefits
Clean eating
Self care
Meatless
Whole Foods
Functional
HEALTH
FOODS Comfort
History, inspired stories
Insta-worthy
Escapism
Transparency
Convenience
Food origins Kids
Value, not price
Multi-sensory
Customized/personalized
Authenticity
MOTIVATION
Brand activism
Health Horizons
Health
Prevention
Food as Medicine
CVD
Supplements
Vision
Obesity
Inflammation
Joint / Bone Muscle
Immunity Control
Portion control Diabetes
Kids
Clean labels Organic
Satiety
Calories
Salt, Sugar, Fat
Apps
Seasonal / Local
Snacking
Cognitive Function Energy
Development / Decline Depression
Memory
Focus Sleep
Stress
Relaxation
Obesity
Mindful eating
Satiety
Wt. Wellness Kids
Snacking
Drivers Health Trends
Trust Ethics
Sourcing
Health Claims Food Safety
Emotional connection
Organic
Simplify
Convenience Speed scratch
Recognizable ingredients
Unprocessed
Organic
Consumers Practice Mindful Eating, Seek Balance
• 54% of adults say they always try to eat a balanced diet
• Conventional snacking market declined 2% annually over the past three years, while health-and-wellness snacking grew 6% annually
• Only 28% strongly agree with the following statement: “I have access to all the information I want about where my food comes from, how it’s produced, and its safety”
• Up to 44% of respondents would be willing to pay 75% more for a dishes containing ingredients they knew and trusted
• Topping the list of components considered to be healthful is fiber (87%), whole grains (84%), protein from plant sources (72%)
Packaged Facts Spins Center for Food Integrity
Ingredient Communications, Surveygoo IFIC
Health Ally: Protein (Animal / Plant Infighting)
• Research: • Mintel - Americans seeking healthy products - 63% look for protein, 61% fiber, 57% whole grains, 36% organic • HealthFocus International - 52% of consumers claim to be eating more plant-based foods, 63 percent say they are
increasing their use of plant-based foods
Health (red meat)
Satiety
Cholesterol
BP
Mortality
Kidney Failure
Fatigue
Cognitive function Colon, prostate cancer
Behavioral Flexitarians
Meatless Mondays
Vegetarian / vegan choices
Plant proteins desire
Red meat consumption
Protein desire
Technology
Lentil
Algae
Chickpea flour
Pea protein
Lentein
Profi-One Stop
Oat
Alga Via Easy Flav
Hemp
Birth Pattern: Courier Diet Industry Parents
Plant Protein Posterchild - Beans Jump Categories
Hartman Mintel Johns Hopkins Nielsen
• 54% of consumers would like to eat more plant-based foods/beverages • • 50% of Americans agree plant-based proteins are better for you than
animal-based, 75% believe plant-based foods are healthy
• 55% reported reducing consumption of processed meat, 41% are reducing the amount of red meat
• Retail sales of plant-based food grew 17% in 2018, plant-based meat sales increased 23%, 12% of US households purchase plant-based meat
Beans Ricochet
Side dishes
Salads
Bowls / Wraps Chips
Bars
Cereal Flour
Beverage Packaging Materials
Health Ally: Fermented Foods
Parents
Travel
Health & Wellness
Cross Ties
Cognitive function
Invisibly healthy
Digestive health
Flavor extremes Flexitarian
Global cuisines
Mindful eating Immune system
Innova - 18% average annual growth of food and beverage launches with fermented claim from 2013-2017 SPINS - US retail sales of refrigerated kombucha and other fermented beverages rose 37.4% to $556m in 2017 Nielsen - Double-digit sales growth came from kombucha, up 42% to $412 million in 2018 Upserve - Consumption of fermented foods and drinks increased 149% during 2018
Birth Pattern: Fusion
Fermented Foods: Clinical Health Research Im
mun
e Fu
nctio
n • Yogurt
• Sauerkraut • Kimchi • Kefir • Tempeh • Kombucha • Natto
Dige
stio
n
• Sauerkraut • Kimchi • Kefir • Kombucha • Miso • Tempeh • Yogurt
Cogn
itive
Fun
ctio
n
• Garlic • Tempeh • Yogurt • Kefir • Soymilk • Natto • Kimchi
Consumers Insights
New Nutrition Business
• 18% of respondents said kefir is good for digestive health 2018 • 16% said sauerkraut/fermented vegetables are good for digestive health
Hartman • 38% of consumers say they are consciously adding probiotics to their diet
Upserve • Consumption of fermented foods and drinks increased 149% during 2018
• Web searches for “improving gut health” increased 250% - yr ending 6/18 • Interest in “anxiety and gut health” rose 200%
Fermented Foods: Time Link 1980’s-2019
BIRTH*
Kimchi (Korea)
Natto (Japan)
Greek Yogurt (Mediterranean)
Sourdough Bread (USA)
Pickles (Global) Miso (Japan)
Lassi (India)
Kombucha (Japanese)
Kefir (Russia)
Flavor Horizons
Flavor Evolution: Morph *Morph - cousin steals the spotlight
Fusion Comfort Foods Hybrids, Stuffed Molecular Gastronomy
Recession Mid Recovery Full Recovery
Fusion Molecular Gastronomy Fringe
Defin
ition
Tr
ansla
tion
Fusion to Fringe
• Insects • Algae
• Lethals (Fugu, Sannakji, Casu Marzu)
• Invasivors (weeds, lionfish)
• Lab Grown • Cannabis Cuisine
• Tex Mex • Pan Asian • Yōshoku
(Western influence Japanese) • Korean/Mexican
(Kogi food truck) • Deep South / Japanese
(The Peached Tortilla)
Flavors and foods from two cultures come together in
unique ways
Blends physics and chemistry to transform the tastes and textures
of food
Not part of the mainstream;
unconventional, peripheral, or extreme
• Liquid nitrogen • Immersion blender
(Foams) • Spherification
(Caviar) • Fermentation • Edible paper • 3-D printing
• Syringe
Food Forecast 2019
Food / Flavor
Cuisines / Factions Food / Flavor
Sustainability
Ethical
Zero waste Seasonal
Hydroponics Organic
Local
Invasivors
Meal Types / Settings
Meal Types Setting
Seasonal, LTO
Snacks Heritage
Breakfast anytime
Street food
Regional ethnic Plant based
Tactile Kids meals
Airport lounges
Open kitchens
Fine casual Upscale C-Stores
Grocerants
Food Trucks
Solo
Preparation Meal kits
Live fire
Roasted
Sheet pan Speed scratch
Dry / Air frying
Pickled, Sour, Fermented
Hot pot
Nose to tail +
Foil pkt
Puffed
Health
Flexitarian Fiber
Beans, Pulses Grains
Protein Free From Nutrient dense
Kids Meals
Fermented
Food Forecast 2019
Food / Flavor
Dairy
Feta, Raclette, Halloumi
Butter-Ghee, Schmaltz
NutButter Labneh, Skyr Cottage, Ricotta
Seasonings / Sauces
Alcohol
Charcoal
Charred, smoke
Coffee / Tea Honey
Pickled, sour, fermented
Sweet browns Rosemary Sumac
Sour
Turmeric
Pandan
Grains / Seeds
Dumplings
Chia Sprouted
Freekah
Sorghum Traditional breads
Spelt
Buckwheat
Teff Hemp
Farro Kamut
Protein
Insects
Game meats Beans, Pulses
Invasivors
Octopus
Seacuterie Jerky
Offal
Trash fish Plant
Egg based
Cauliflower
Vegetables
Fruit Super
Jackfruit Tart cherry
Passion
Persimmon
Hybrids
Varietal apple, pear
Avocado
Roots Chicory
Beets
Beans, Pulses
Sea
Celtuce Mushrooms
Desserts / Snacks Pies- regional
Middle East booza, kanafeh
Thai rolled ice cream
Alcohol / Herb infused
Extreme milkshakes
French pastry Pulse based
Ruby Chocolate
High protein
Cuisines & Clusters
Cuisines
Clusters
Deep South / Appalachian / Low Country
Korean, Filipino
African – Moroccan, Ethiopian
Peruvian, Brazilian
Eastern Bloc EU – Russian, Georgian
Cuban, Puerto Rican
Central American
Middle Eastern – Israel, Jordan
Peasant Food
Global Breakfast
Street Food
Handheld Fusion
Indulgent Vegan
Florals
Flatbreads
Alternative Pasta, Flours
Sheet pan / One dish meals
Tacos 3.0 Cultured / Fermented
Beverage Forecast 2019
Beverage
Styles / Varietals
Economics By the glass
Happy Hour
Health
Better for you cocktails
Tea Protein
Kombucha / Kefir Ayurvedic
Adaptogen
Plant milks / waters
Grains
Low sugar
Sustainability
Seasonal Local
Farm to shaker
Organic
Fair Trade
Bespoke bars
Settings / Experiences
Settings Experiences
Airport bars Draft houses
Escape rooms
Flights
Beer, food pairing
Tea houses
Vintage menus
Bar chefs Adult-ing
Health bars
Beverage Forecast 2019
Styles / Varietals
Cocktails
Shrubs Tiki
Sotol
Infused spirits
Rum
Beertails “Session”
Culinary
Aquavit
Artisan whiskey
Wine
Mezcal
Tea, coffee based
Beer / Cider
Varietal hard cider Global cider
Ginger beer
Craft lagers
Sour beer
Nitro hard soda Milkshake IPA
Rose
Wine Bordeaux
Rioja Pet-Nat
Chardonnay Chianti
Cabernet Franc
Tannat Barrel aged
Orange
Rose
Beverage Forecast 2019
Styles / Varietals
Non-Alcohol Switchels, drinking vinegars
Mocktails
Plant milks- barley, flax, oat, hemp
Nitro Gourmet lemonade
Frozen
Craft sodas
Horchata
Lassi, Kefir
Plant waters- aloe, cactus, maple
Cold pressed
Butterfly pea Cold brew
Nitro coffee
Coffee / Tea
Kombucha
Cascara
Mushroom
Cold brew House roasted
Cheese Tea Rooibos tea
Instagram worthy
Add Ins / Preps
Fermented
Florals
Sumac
Chilies
Bitters
Nitro
Tamarind
Global grains Barrel aged
Smoke
Sparkling
Yuzu
Mushrooms
Infused, smoked, branded ice
Batched Infused syrups
Beverage Trends *Pathway Analysis - Gap analysis used to determine entrance strategy
Health Cocktail “Cool”
Control Benefit
Story / Voice
Insp
iratio
n Tr
ansla
tion
Path
Comfort
Travel
Regional
“Secret”
Ancient Health Kids
Global / Regional
Teas
Kefir, Kombucha
Vegetable / Grains Unblended Smoothies
Cold pressed /raw
Healing Grounded
Story / Voice
Kids Obesity
Wt. Control
*Plant waters (coconut, aloe, cactus, cucumber, etc.) fit in all 3 categories
Barrel aged Infused, smoked ice
Culinary Nitro coffee
Bubbles Smoke
Spicy, Bitter
Hard Cider, Soda
Bubbles
Gin, Whisky
Infused spirits
Savory
Freedom Escape
Exclusivity
Cuisine Close-Up
Middle East / No. Africa: Support Matrix
ME / NA
Factions
Breakfast Vegetarian
Street Food
Head to Tail Consumer
Experimental Healing
Hope
History
Adventure Exotic
Control
Travel
Syria
Jordan
Beirut
Oman
Israel Morocco
Egypt
Dubai
Iran
Morocco Israel
Lebanon Liberia
Gaza
Iraq
Dubai
Iran
Regional Cuisine
H&W
Whole Grains
Beans
Spice, Salt
Florals
Almonds Fermented
*Birth
Wine Ind. Suppliers Food Mnft./RCA/IFT/ASTA
Hi-End Restaurant/ Celebrity Chef
Governments
Hollywood
Book Publishers
Consumer
Consumer Mags
Travel Ind.
Grocery
TV/News Mags
Industry Mags
Diet Ind.
Universities
Family / Quick Serve Restaurants
Packaging
Pharmaceutical
Cosmetics / Beauty
Biotech
Bars/Cocktails
Infant: Middle East/No. Africa: Birth Path 2/01- 2/19
Fusion Birth: Nordic Cuisine
• Other Traits: – Cross ties Arctic & EU – Antarctica, Nepal, Lapland, Iceland, Norway, Scandinavia, Finland, Netherlands,
Greenland, Alaska, N. Canada – Travel here signals solitude, bravery, $$, fearlessness, curiosity, exploration – The World Health Organization (WHO) found that both the Mediterranean and Nordic diets reduce the
risk of cancer, type 2 diabetes, and heart disease
* Fusion Birth: Multiple Birth Parents
Parents
Travel
Economic Recovery
Cross Ties
Foraging
Superfruits - berries
Local
Seasonal
Bakery
Heritage
Smoke
Cured, Pickled
Dairy
Seafood Health
Nordic Birth Pattern (Infant): 1/11-1/19
Wine Ind. Bakery Food Mnft./RCA/IFT/ASTA
Hi-End Restaurant/ Celebrity Chef
Governments
Hollywood
Book Publishers
Consumer
Consumer Mags
Travel Ind.
Grocery
TV/News Mags
Industry Mags
Diet Ind.
Universities
Family / Quick Serve Restaurants
Packaging
Pharmaceutical
Cosmetics / Beauty
Biotech
Bars/Cocktails
*Birth
• Convenience – Convenience will wax and wane with economic conditions, consumer confidence
• Economic indicators & consumer confidence , demand for convenience • Snacking
– Snacking acts as a competitor to other day parts – Snacking recognized as a contributor to obesity
• Breakfast – Breakfast is mealtime to watch for signals of economic recovery – Breakfast traffic = sign that economy
• Protein – Vegetarian / Flexitarian interest will be linked directly to consumer sustainability & obesity concerns
• Sustainability & Obesity concerns = Veg / Flex interest – Vegetable protein technologies will surpass animal protein options for functional range – Animal protein regains footing -offers nutrients unmatched in vegetable protein – calcium, zinc, vit D, B12
• Flavors – Flavors / cuisines- more extreme, adventurous items as recovery unfolds – Beverages regionalize – Fruits/seasonings demonstrate consumer experimentation vs. caution – Beverage, meat, dessert categories act as barometers for consumer mood – Cocktails, craft beer, wine $ , desserts , insect eating = recovery behavior – Cheap domestic beer, wine $ , cocktails , desserts , meatloaf = recession behavior
Industry Forecast: 2019
Know the birth and lifecycle of a trend prior to deciding to enter so you can foretell how to navigate it
Neither love nor hate a trend – emotions will fog the trend’s true
pattern and you may be blindsided when it shifts
Spend more time researching a trend’s personality and trajectory than worrying about what your competitors are doing – after all, they may be idiots
Final Thoughts
Thank You! Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy Badaracco President
www.culinarytides.com [email protected]
https://www.facebook.com/culinarytides/ https://twitter.com/sbadaracco
https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzy-badaracco-7443144 (503) 880-4682