cts presentation tpm asia 2013 conference - joc.com · 2013-10-10 · tpm asia 2013 conference 486...
TRANSCRIPT
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011 1,308,400 845,600 1,177,600 1,181,300 1,237,900 1,194,700 1,343,200 1,316,400 1,135,300 1,141,700 1,069,400 1,260,000
2012 1,265,900 911,700 1,162,200 1,156,800 1,196,700 1,134,000 1,171,600 1,154,900 1,103,900 1,035,100 999,900 1,229,200
2013 1,299,700 919,700 1,081,500 1,161,000 1,199,100 1,220,800 1,280,800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Th
ou
sa
nd
s (
TE
U)
Asia - Europe Imports Jan 2011- Jul 2013
Asia – Europe Imports totalled 14,211,500 TEU in 2011
Asia – Europe Imports totalled 13,521,900 TEU in 2012 – a drop of 5%
Asia – Europe Imports in 1H 2013 are up 1% vs. 1H 2012
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar-
11
Ap
r-11
May-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar-
12
Ap
r-12
May-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Au
g-1
2
Sep
-12
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar-
13
Ap
r-13
May-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Mo
nth
ly G
row
th (
%)
Th
ou
san
ds (
TE
U)
Asia - Europe Imports Jan 2011 - Jul 2013
Asia to East Med/Black Sea Asia to West Med/N. Africa
Asia to N. Europe Asia to N. Europe Monthly Growth (%)
Asia to West Med/N. Africa Monthly Growth (%) Asia to East Med/Black Sea Monthly Growth (%)
Asia-N. Europe exports dropped 1% y-o-y (2012 vs. 2011)
Asia-East Med/Black Sea exports dropped 6% y-o-y
Asia-West Med/N. Africa exports dropped 17% y-o-y
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
2,182
2,406
2,584
2,355
2,321
2,405 2,412
2,258 2,262
2,416
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Th
ou
san
ds (
TE
U)
Asia-Northern Europe: Q1 2011- Q2 2013
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
486
523
559
495
521
541 547
504 515
546
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Germany
403 426 485
430 410 431 470
422 398 446
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
United Kingdom
389
410
442
387 380
412 410
383 393
415
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440 450
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Netherlands
271 298 302 298
254 281
254 245 260 270
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
France
Top 4 Import Countries: TEU Imports vs. Real GDP Growth
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
555
630
644
602
561
598
565
572
596
665
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Th
ou
san
ds (
TE
U)
Asia-East Med & Black Sea: Q1 2011- Q2 2013
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
154 176
158 148 150 156 141 145
166 192
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Turkey
39 39 42
34 32
38 41 43
38 42
-2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Greece
58 64 64
49 51 59
63 59
65 71
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Israel
60
70 79 71
64 68
63
75 67
73
-0.5
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Ukraine
Top 4 Import Countries: TEU Imports vs. Real GDP Growth
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
666
732 722
644
578
611
561 539
561
628
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Th
ou
san
ds (
TE
U)
Asia-West Med & North Africa: Q1 2011- Q2 2013
271 292
278
239 221 227
215 211 221 235
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Italy
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
184 196
207
171 163 163 167 156 150
172
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Spain
26 27 28
23 21 22
20 20 22 21
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2 1
2
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Portugal
12
1
4
13
10 11
9 9 10
13
0
5
10
15
Q1 1
1
Q2 1
1
Q3 1
1
Q4 1
1
Q1 1
2
Q2
12
Q3 1
2
Q4 1
2
Q1 1
3
Q2 1
3
Libya
Top 4 Import Countries: TEU Imports vs. Real GDP Growth
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
GDP Growth Forecasts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
France 0.3 1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Germany 0.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5
Greece -4.6 -1 1.3 2 1.9
Italy -1.8 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.4
Netherlands -1.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5
Portugal -2.1 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
Spain -1.5 0.4 1.1 1.4 2.0
Turkey 3.4 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5
UK 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.3
Source: IMF, British Chambers, Intelligence News, EY
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
GD
P P
roje
cte
d G
row
th (
%)
TPM Asia 2013 Conference 1
,16
6 1
,19
5
1,1
34
1,2
21
1,2
19
1,3
43
1,1
72
1,2
83
1,2
42
1,3
16
1,1
55
1,2
81
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
san
ds (
TE
U)
Asia-Europe "Peak Season" Annual Comparison
Jun Jul Aug
+8%
+9%
+11%
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
CONCLUSION
Looking only at “Asia – Europe” is too simplistic.
Volume declines into the Mediterranean are the major cause of the decline in overall volumes.
With the exception of France the major North
European economies are seeing volumes returning
Even in the Med. volumes are improving with the
exception of Ukraine
Most sources show growth in 2014, with the exception of Greece.
We are already seeing a “Peak Season”, and the outlook for 2014 is positive.
TPM Asia 2013 Conference
THANK YOU
Rod Riseborough – Chief Executive Officer , CTS