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CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
Society of Thoracic Surgeons
in the21st Century
Keith S. Naunheim, M.D.
President, Society of Thoracic Surgeons
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYFinancial Disclosure
I only wish
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSurgeon Demographics
Ikonomides JS
Ann Thorac Surg 2016; 102:2118
4343 active STS members
29% response rate
Median age 54 yrs
Academic 37%
Hospital employed 40%
Private practice 18%
Govt employed 2%
Other 3%Over 7300 members
in 95 countries
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Mission
Enhance the ability of
cardiothoracic surgeons to
provide the highest quality
patient care through education,
research, and advocacy
How the hell do we do that?
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Fiscal year 2017-18, the TSF
Raised $1.5 million dollars for charitable use
Gave almost $900,000 in awards to surgeons
Since 1998 as the TSFRE
$16 million for CT surgery research/education
200 research and fellowship grants awarded
Basic, applied & health policy research
Residents, early & mid career attendings
Funding Research
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Databases
TVT
Registry
570 sites
100% of cases
140,000
General
Thoracic
288 sites
35% of cases
560,000
Congenital
Cardiac
117 sites
95% of cases
475,000
Adult
Cardiac
1080 sites
95% of cases
6.5 million51 papers 31 papers 19 papers
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Databases
TVT
Registry
570 sites
100% of cases
140,000
General
Thoracic
288 sites
35% of cases
560,000
Adult
Cardiac
1080 sites
95% of cases
6.5 million
STS
Intermacs
163 sites
99% of cases
>19,000
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CABG
MVR
AVR
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CABG
MVR
AVR
US population All + 7.7%
> 65 + 24%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CABG
MVR
AVR
CABG Off Pump 12%
IMA 99%, BIMA 5%, Radial 5%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CABG
MVR
MVR Repair/Replace 60/40
AVR
CABG Off Pump 12%
IMA 99%, BIMA 5%, Radial 5%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CABG
AVR Declining volumes
MVR
MVR Repair/Replace 60/40
AVR
CABG Off Pump 12%
IMA 99%, BIMA 5%, Radial 5%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Databases
TVT
Registry
570 sites
100% of cases
140,000
General
Thoracic
288 sites
35% of cases
560,000
Adult
Cardiac
1080 sites
95% of cases
6.5 million
STS
Intermacs
163 sites
99% of cases
>190,000
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCardiac Surgery Trends
SAVR vs TAVR
29829 3026528493
25580
18384 1809017507
1591017544
28857
43548
47779
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2014 2015 2016 2017
AVR
AVR & CABG
TAVR
STS/ACC TVT Registry March 2018
65,757 89,269
Low risk
High risk
Intermediate
SAPIEN 3
PARTNER 2SURTAVI
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMoral of the Story
TAVR is absolutely here to stay
TMVR is probably here to stay
If you a. Are under the age of 55
b. Want to implant valves
It’s time to get some wire skills
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Databases
TVT
Registry
570 sites
100% of cases
140,000
General
Thoracic
288 sites
35% of cases
560,000
Adult
Cardiac
1080 sites
95% of cases
6.5 million
STS
Intermacs
163 sites
99% of cases
>19,000
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Intermacs Database
LVAD Intermacs
Over 160 programs
Over 19000 patients
Continued growth
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYLVAD Trends
AxialCentrifugal
Intermacs Annual Report 2017MOMENTUM 3
HeartMate II vs III
Centrifugal flow in III
Fewer strokes
Fewer reoperations
NEJM 2018; 378:1386
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYECMO Trends
McCarthy et al Sem Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2015; 27:81
2015: 61: 31-6
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYEvolving Your Practice
LVAD
ECMO
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Databases
TVT
Registry
570 sites
100% of cases
140,000
General
Thoracic
288 sites
35% of cases
560,000
Adult
Cardiac
1080 sites
95% of cases
6.5 million
STS
Intermacs
163 sites
99% of cases
>190,000
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThoracic Surgery Trends
National Lung Screening trial NEJM 2011
Cohort Person Lung ca Mortality Mortality
Years Deaths per 10,000 Reduction
LDCT 144,103 356 247
CXR 143,368 443 309
20%p = 0.004
“Screening with low dose chest CT
conclusively reduces mortality from lung
cancer in high risk patients.”
Medicare & USPSTF cover for screening
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThoracic Surgery Trends
Screening will lead to smaller, early stage lesions
Suppositions
Americans want less invasive treatment methods
Increased usage of minimally invasive surgery
Increased usage of sub lobar resections
Increased usage of non surgical therapy (SBRT)
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThoracic Surgery Trends
Limited to the STS General Thoracic Database
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThoracic Surgery Trends
VATS and Robotic Surgery
Open
VATS
Robotic
Unpublished quarterly analysis of the Premier Database
2009 2012 2014 20162010
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThoracic Surgery Trends
SEER Data
2000-2010
Stage I
NSCLC
Resections
Kapadia et al Ann Thorac Surg 2017; 104:1881
Pneumo
4 2%
Lobe
83 80%
Sublobar
13 18%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
National Cancer Database (70% of all cancer pts)
2008 to 2013 107,233 pts stage IA NSCLC
Demographics, comorbidity, treatment type & year
Trends in SBRT
JNCI Ca Spect 2017; 1:1-6
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Surgery
12% relative decline
Trends in SBRTHolmes et al JNCI Ca Spect 2017; 1:1-6
49.5%43.7%
Lobe/Pneum
SBRT
6.7%
16.3% SBRT
240% relative rise
Are patients getting
adequate treatment?
No RCT proves
SBRT is equivalent
No RCT proves
SBRT isn’t
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Highest quality clinical care
Research
Education
Advocacy
Mission
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMeetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
May 18-19, 2018 ● Chicago, IL
sts.org/roboticthoracic
New in 2018!
Thoracic Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
ASTRO ASCO STS
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
Shanghai Medical
Association
September 8-9,
2018
Shanghai, China
Thoracic Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
CT SURGERY
IN THE USACardiothoracic Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
November 8-9,
2018
Shenyang, China
Chinese Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
Cardiothoracic Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USACardiac Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USACardiac Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USACardiac Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USACardiac Meetings
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYSTS Annual Meeting
Tech
Con
Didactic
Sessions
STS
University
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYVideos Webinars Podcasts
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYAnnals of Thoracic Surgery
Monthly CME Articles in
General Thoracic Surgery
annalsthoracicsurgery.org
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Highest quality clinical care
Research
Education
Advocacy
Mission
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYPatient Safety & Education
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYctsurgerypatients.org
The Patient Guide to Heart, Lung, and Esophageal SurgeryA Website Presented by Cardiothoracic Surgeons Committed to Improving Patient Care
Available in English and Spanish
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYPatient Handouts
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYFuture Trends
Workforce
Technology
Transparency
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
CT Surgery Applications
The Age of Darkness
0
40
80
120
160
200
1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Number of Applicants
Active Positions Available
U.S. Medical School Graduate Applicants
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYCT Surgery Resurgence
0
25
50
75
100
125
Six YearIntegratedPositions
Two/ThreeYear Standard
Positions
36
92107
Six Year
Integrated
Applicants
125
Two/Three
Year Standard
Applicants
25
125
100
75
50
0
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYActive Physicians
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AAMC Data www.aamc.org/data/workforce/reports/458712/1-3chart.html
7%
All specialties 34%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYDemographics
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYActive Trainees
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
AAMC Data www.aamc.org/data/workforce/reports/458712/1-3chart.html
All specialties 46%
20%
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYFemale Participation
New Female Diplomates
Total Women Certified
20
17
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYFemale Surgeons
U Michigan St Louis U
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Women Surgeons
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYTechnology Trends
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Virtual Reality Preop planning
Education
Augmented Reality Preop planning
Intraop decisions
Artificial Intelligence All of the above PLUS
NLP EMR
Computer vision Imaging analysis
Neural networks Computer “judgment”
Machine learning Scary SkyNet Stuff
More Computer Stuff
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Mechanical Assist
VAD ECMO TAH
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Perc Valves
TMVRTAVR
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Robotic Surgery
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Robots
Transenterix
HapticFeedback
Eye sensingCamera control
ReusableInstrumentation
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Robots
Titan
ControlConsole
UniportalInstrumentation
RoboticArm
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
MedRobotics Flex
Robotic Trends
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Robots
MedRobotics Flex
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYRobotic Evolution
Gort
Master - Slave
Robocop ED-209
Semiautonomous
T 800
Independent
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Transparency
OR
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYPublic Reporting
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYQuality Improvement
Public reporting is the right thing to do and the Society
regards this as a professional responsibility
Adult Cardiac
CABG
AVR
AVR + CABG
MVR
MVR + CABG
Congenital Cardiac
VSD Glenn/HF
TOF Fontan
CAVC Truncus
AS Norwood
AS/VSD Coarct
General Thoracic
Lobectomy
Esophagectomy
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Quality reporting currently at program level
Individual procedures
Composite score
Next step - reporting at individual surgeon level
Individual procedures (summing the O/Es)
New composite score for five procedures
Confidential reporting to surgeons - or is it?
Surgeon Level Composite
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMore Pressure Than Ever
More difficult patients
More needless paperwork
More ongoing scrutiny
Regulatory agencies
Third Party payers
Media (social & others)
STS involvement maximizes your
opportunity for self determination
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThe Surgeon’s Century
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURY
Thank You
Questions?
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYTransplantation Trends
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Heart
Lung
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYAugmented Reality
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYAugmented Reality
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYMan vs Robot
CT SURGERY
IN THE USA
STS IN THE21st CENTURYThree Laws of Robotics
1. A robot may not injure a human being, or, through
inaction, allow a human being to come to harm
2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human
beings except where such orders would conflict with
the First Law
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as
such protection does not conflict with the First or
Second Laws