CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR SERVICE PARTNERSHIP CHINA - IMPROVING THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

CSSP CHINA

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A CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR SERVICE PARTNERSHIP CHINA - IMPROVING THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

Why predict tropical cyclones?

Coastal regions of China are impacted by tropical cyclones in the western North Pacifi c, which can cause signifi cant damage to life and property. Hundreds of millions of people are a� ected in China every year with almost half of all societal and economic losses resulting from tropical cyclones. The heavily populated south China coast, which includes the Pearl River Delta (PRD) - now the largest megacity cluster in the world with a population exceeding 50 million - is particularly a� ected. Cities around the Yangtze River Delta including Shanghai are also a� ected, and the combination of typhoons, rainfall and river fl ooding can be catastrophic. There have therefore been considerable e� orts over recent decades to try and improve seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacifi c. The ability to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones in a particular region, during a season or period of years, could help provide hazard information to support decision-making on those timescales, and has the potential to minimise loss and damage, thus bringing great societal benefi t.

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What CSSP China is doing

CSSP China has been developing seasonal forecasts to help predict tropical cyclone landfall risk along the coasts of Eastern and Southern China. At the Met O� ce, the seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5, has shown high skill for predictions of tropical cyclone landfall risk in East Asia. This skill comes from the ability of the forecast model to successfully predict year-to-year variations in the western Pacifi c subtropical high (WPSH), an atmospheric process which is strongly linked to tropical cyclone landfall activity in the western North Pacifi c1.

Work is now underway to develop this science into a climate service and CSSP China is working with decision-makers in China to understand and respond to specifi c user requirements. In May 2019 the fi rst trial forecast of Summer (June-August) tropical cyclone landfall risk for East Asia was issued to Chinese partners (see fi gure above). The forecast provides an indication of whether the number of tropical cyclones that would make landfall along the eastern coast of China is above or below average for the upcoming summer season.

CSSP China is also developing a forecast technique which aims to provide predictions on even longer timescales. This forecast would use both information from the climate model (GloSea5), as well as statistical methods, to forecast landfall risk for both the Eastern and Southern China coasts, including the PRD. Once fully developed, these could be issued in the winter for the following year’s tropical cyclone season (June-November)2.

Predictions of the WPSH index using the Met O� ce seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) for June-August 1993-2019 (red). Black line: WPSH index from reanalysis data (ERA-Interim).

1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacifi c subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met O� ce GloSea5 system. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2019; 145: 105–116.2 Sparks, N., and Toumi, R., (2019). A Statistical Model of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Activity at Shanghai and Hong Kong. Under Review.

2019 tropical cyclone landfall risk forecast for East Asia. Issued 1 May 2019

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What’s next?

CSSP China will continue the pull-through of the latest climate science relating to tropical cyclones for developing prototype climate services in China, with a strong focus on user engagement. User engagement activities will bring these scientists and users together to foster the take up of seasonal forecasts. Discussions will focus on:

• identifi cation of business decisions relevant to typhoon events;• assessment of existing typhoon information used in business decisions;• identifi cation of potential actionable climate information; and• co-development and delivery of climate information.

The project will also analyse the risk of northward landfalling tropical cyclones under a changing climate and will assess trends in drivers of typhoon activity. Northward landfalling typhoons are rare in China, but when they do occur, they can result in severe impacts. Engaging with users in cities, and in water, agriculture and energy sectors who are a� ected by northward landfalling typhoons will help scientists to understand information requirements and to inform future climate service development.

CSSP China is building strong UK-China science partnerships

CSSP China supports collaboration between the UK and China. It aims to develop capability to inform decision makers in climate mitigation and adaptation strategy and to underpin services to support climate and weather resilient economic development and social welfare.

CSSP China is building strong, sustainable partnerships between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) and the Met O� ce, the UK’s national meteorological service, and other key Chinese and UK scientifi c institutes.

The Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership Programme – of which CSSP China is a part - is funded by the UK Government’s Newton Fund, and is also known as the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund in China. For further information visit the Newton Fund website (www.newtonfund.ac.uk) and follow via Twitter: @NewtonFund

For more information on CSSP China visit the Met O� ce website https://www.meto� ce.gov.uk/research/collaboration/newton/cssp-china/index

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下一步行动

CSSP 中国项目将继续努力研究与热带气旋有关的最新气候科学，进而开发出中国气候服务原型，同时也会十分重视用户的参与。用户参与的活动能将科学家与用户联系在一起，从而提供符合用户需求的预测。讨论将重点关注：• 确定与台风事件相关的决策制定；• 评估当前在决策制定中使用的台风信息；• 确定可利用的潜在气候信息；以及• 共同开发和提供气候信息。

该项目还将分析在气候发生变化的情况下，热带气旋较通常情况在更北部地区登陆的风险。这类台风很少在中国登陆，但一旦登陆就会造成严重影响。与受北上台风影响的各个部门（例如水利、农业和能源部门）的用户多多接触，这能够帮助科学家们了解信息需求，从而推动今后的气候服务研发工作。

CSSP 中国项目支持中英合作。该项目旨在提高能力，为决策者提供气候缓解和适应战略的相关信息，并为支持气候和天气适应性经济发展及社会福利的服务提供基础。

CSSP 中国项目正在中国气象局 (CMA)、大气物理研究所 (IAP)、英国气象局、英国国家气象部门等中英重点科研机构之间建立坚实且可持续的伙伴关系。

天气气候科学支持服务伙伴关系计划（CSSP 中国项目是其中之一）由英国政府牛顿基金资助，也被称为“中英联合科学创新基金”。 如需更多信息，请访问牛顿基金网站 (www.newtonfund.ac.uk)，并通过 Twitter 关注 @NewtonFund

如需有关 CSSP 中国项目的更多信息，请访问英国气象局网站：https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/newton/cssp-china/index

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CSSP 中国项目正在开展的工作

CSSP 中国项目开展了季节性预测，以帮助预测热带气旋沿中国东部和南部沿海登陆的风险。在英国气象局，季节性预测系统 GloSea5 已经展现出了预测东亚热带气旋登陆风险的高超本领。西太平洋副热带高压 (WPSH) 是一种大气过程，与热带气旋在西北太平洋的登陆活动紧密相关，而该预测系统可成功预测 WPSH 的年际变化。1。

人们正在开展相关工作，旨在使这项科技能为气候服务，同时 CSSP 中国项目正在同中国决策者合作，以了解和回应特定的用户需求。2019 年 5 月，首个预测夏季（6 月至 8 月）东亚热带气旋登陆风险的试用版产品向中国合作伙伴发布（见上图）。该预测针对即将到来的夏季，就可能沿中国东部海岸登陆的热带气旋数量是高于还是低于平均水平提供指示。

CSSP 中国项目也正在开发预测技术，旨在更长时间范围内提供预测。该预测将使用从气候模型 (GloSea5) 获取的信息并运用多种统计方法来预测中国东部沿海和南部沿海（包括珠江三角洲）的热带气旋登陆风险。开发完成后，预测结果将在冬季发布，从而为来年的热带气旋季（6 月至 11 月）做好准备2。

使用英国气象局季节性预测系统 (GloSea5) 对 1993-2019 年 6 月至 8 月的 WPSH 指数进行的预测（红色）。黑线：从再分析数据得出的 WPSH 指数 (ERA-Interim)。

1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacifi c subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met O� ce GloSea5 system. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2019; 145: 105–116.2 Sparks, N., and Toumi, R., (2019). A Statistical Model of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Activity at Shanghai and Hong Kong. Under Review.

1 Camp et al (2019). The western Pacifi c subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met O� ce GloSea5 system.Q J R Meteorol Soc.2019; 145: 105–116.

WPSH 指数（标准

化）

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加强对东亚热带气旋的预测

为什么要预测台风？

西北太平洋热带气旋会影响中国的沿海地区，从而给生命和财产带来巨大损害。每年，热带气旋会波及数以百万计的中国人口，并且会给其中的一半造成社会和经济损失。包括珠江三角洲 (PRD) 在内的人口密集的华南沿海地区已成为全球最大的超大城市群，这里的人口超过了 5 千万，而受到的影响也最大。包括上海在内的长江三角洲周边城市都受到了影响，而且台风、降雨和洪水的组合通常是灾难性的。近几十年来，人们付出了相当大的努力来试图对西北太平洋上的热带气旋进行季节性预测和提升预测精确度。通过预测在一个季节或数年中于特定区域登陆的热带气旋的数量，能够帮助提供灾害信息，在这些时段内辅助决策制定，尽可能减少损失和损害，进而带来巨大的社会效益。

气候科学支持服务伙伴关系中国项目 - 热带气旋

CSSP CHINA