cs3-wbs estimating - scheduling

7/31/2019 Cs3-WBS Estimating - Scheduling

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Project Management

Class Meeting 3

Sessions 5&6THE PLAN WBS &

Estimating - Scheduling


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Documents Delivered any questions?

Creating the WBS

Scheduling what comes FIRST?

Case Discussion - Canada Games

Estimating EffortTeam Meetings

Agenda

7/25/2012Hult Project Management 2


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You can con a sucker into committing to an impossibledeadline, but you cannot con him into meeting it.

Quantitative project management is for predictingcost and schedule overruns well in advance.

There's never enough time to do it right first time butthere's always enough time to go back and do it again.

http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/


A Little British PM Humor
http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/http://www.project-training-uk.freeserve.co.uk/


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Hult Project Management

Work Breakdown Structure

WBS the REAL detailed definition

of the projectHierarchy of Goals & Tasks, organized

into work packages or

sub-projects where appropriateTo Plan & Estimate any project, you

need to do a WBS


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Small, meaningful, manageableunits of work

Meaningful = results with a clearlydefined deliverable

Manageable = units can be assignedto specific people for clearresponsibility & accountability


Work Packages


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WBS Work Package Criteria

1. Status/completion is measurable2. Start/end events are clearly defined

3. Each activity has a deliverable

4. Time/Costis easily estimated Resource requirements

5. Durationis within acceptable limits1. 1 day to 2 week maximum (8-80)

6. Work assignments are independent aim for 1-2 week units, unless short/small project

If these

6 criteria cannot be identified,decompose the activity further.


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Who would YOU involve in themeeting that was going to break a

project definition down into itsWBS?

What do you think will be thetoughest part of building YOURproject WBS?


Creating the WBS


8/42Hult Project Management

THE Work Breakdown StructureDefines for the Project: What

Who

When How

WBS is used during project: Thought Process Support

Design Tool

Planning Tool

Project Status Reporting Tool


9/42Hult Project Management

Creating the WBS

Project/Functional Decomposition Top-Down MOST COMMON

Bottoms-Up -

start with end result and work backwards Keep in mind: Workable bits

Who does what, when for WBS details?

Depends Size & Complexity of Project

Organizational Reach

Vendor vs. Internal


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High Level WBS Working WBS

Define major deliverables FIRST House example site, foundation, walls, etc Software upgrade needs/features, key users, all users,

upgrade vs. replace, functional deliverables, data conversion,

testing, training Break each deliverable down into its major TASK

groupings House example: FOR WALLS: framing, electrical, plumbing,

sheetrock, baseboard

Software example: FOR FUNCTIONAL DELIVERABLES: screens,files, control program(s), action program(s), etc.

Break each TASK group into lowest level tasks thatmake sense for assignment, estimation, costing


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WBS Breakdown Example

We have been assigned to plan an office moveinvolving 12 people (2 offices/10 cubicles)from the 4th floor to the 8th floor with aminimum of disruption, using only one

moving day, if possible.IN YOUR TEAMS, briefly discuss:

1. WHAT are the TOP LEVEL tasks involved?

2. For each top level activity, what are the tasks thatare needed to accomplish the activity?

3. Are there any work packages that make sense tomonitor/accomplish together?


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Organizing WBS ActivitiesNoun Objectives Requirements - Deliverables

Verb

Action Phrases (Install, Design, Code, etc)Organizational Departmental Geographical Process

LOTS of ways to organize activities! Choose oneyou like or that fits the situation well. BE CONSISTENT


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WBS Considerations Status Roll-ups - MILESTONES Reporting who needs to see what when?

Milestones are Points to take a Breath and aregood to acknowledge a significant deliverable.

Task definition by category of resource NOT a specificperson!

What skills should be on the team, not just WHO?

Who/How & Authorizations

WBS reviewed/approved?

By Whom??


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Creating the WBS

Lets Do a Few Quick WBS Examples:

House Example

Installing a new Firewall System

New expense report processing (bottom-up)

Modifying an existing report program

(either)

Defining more Details drilling down

Test environment task list in Excel
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch9926/cs3-test%20environment-activity%20ordering.xlsxhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch9926/cs3-test%20environment-activity%20ordering.xlsxhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch9926/cs3-test%20environment-activity%20ordering.xlsxhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch9926/cs3-test%20environment-activity%20ordering.xlsx


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HOW did the Games management team set-upthe oversight/management of the army ofvolunteers? Why do you think it worked?

BRAINSTORM IN YOUR TEAMS:

The 2013 games are coming up. With the estimated 4400participants, 18 sports, and related services during thegames, determine the following:

IDENTIFY the major tasks/deliverables needed for the

OPENING EVENT (pre-show, athlete parade, multi-media show, with TV & radio coverage) Select ONE of your task groupings, and decompose it (as per

our readings) to the major work packages that might beassigned to a specific volunteer or volunteer team.


Canadian Games Case Discussion


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Well look at scheduling &estimating when we get back..


BREAK


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Defining Inter-Task Relationships

For each activity/task on the WBS, while youare organizing the tasks, ask yourself & the

planning team: Is there ANYTHING that must be done BEFORE this

task can start? (aka predecessors)

Is there ANYTHING that depends on the successfulcompletion of THIS task? (aka successors)

Make a note of these in the task list as you identifythem.


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All tasks, except START & FINISH,

have a predecessor and a successor START has NO predecessor

FINISH only has a predecessor

Tasks can have the same predecessor


Creating THE SCHEDULE


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1. Define SCOPE2. Prepare Statement of Work

3. Build a WBS4. Identify Task Relationships5. Estimate Work Packages

6. Calculate Initial Schedule7. Assign & Level ResourcesText - Pg 153+


Planning Steps (to date)


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The Math of Estimating

Cost = work effort * resource cost + materials In construction: plumbing installation =

Number of hours plumber, assistant Number of hours finisher, painter PLUS Cost of materials to be installed

In system development: activity cost =

Number of direct labor hours programmer (level),screen designer, systems programmer Direct costs: labor, software licenses, training, etc Indirect costs: system access, telecom, tools, etc


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The Art of Estimating

How much time will it take staff level x tocomplete the defined task? Previous experience

What did we estimate last time?

Historical data How close is this to previous projects?

Expert advice Depend on those who know

Delphi Technique Alternative to Expert Advice 3 passes averaged

3-Point Technique optimistic, pessimistic, most likely

Wide-band Delphi Technique = Delphi + 3-point

SWAG = Scientific (silly?) Wild Ass Guess


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Effort vs. Duration

EFFORT = How many hours will it take tocomplete activity?

DURATION = Based on available resources,when can the activity start and how long will ittake to accomplish the hours needed?

What is the REAL WORK TIME per day? Ex: 25 hours effort, at 6 hours effective time per

day, will take minimum of 4 and 1/6 days.


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Estimating Planned Work

Estimate at the lowest possible task/activity level wheredistinct resources are identifiable. Collect your data (experience, expert, delphi) for each task

identify any constraints or assumptions such as skill level for

resource REVIEW initial task list estimate with the project

team and subject matter experts (SME) Adjust per their input

Multiply by some factor (1.5 2.0 or more) for all activitiesover 5-8 days or with ANY degree of uncertainty Different estimators will do this factoring differently

ENTER reviewed task list with factored effort andresource requirements into the PM system.


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Graph the Schedule =The Network Diagram

Take Task List from the WBS Consider Predecessors & Successors

Lay out the scheduleWhite Board approach using yellow

stickiesSwath approach define & describe it

and then do a group review forchanges/adjustments.

Goal get it visual and then review itleft & right, backwards & forwards


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Activity Representations

Copyright 2003 by Robert K. Wysocki, Rudd McGary. All rights reserved.

Activity on Node Diagrams ^

Activity on Arrow Diagrams >



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Task Relationships

FS Task B starts when A finishes(A then B most common activityrelationship ex. code then test)

SS Task B starts when A starts(ex: data entry & data collection)

SF Task B cannot finish earlier than Asstart (ex: discontinue legacy B after systemA is installed)

FF Task B cannot finish before A finishes(data entry & data collection)


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Identify Constraints

Technical Constraints Discretionary force a particular relationship because of specific

conditions (new hires, controlling risk, etc) Best Practices complete design then complete build vs agile

cycles of design/build Logical project managers approach to sequencing (another

form of discretionary) Unique specific to a project resource or situation (test

equipment availability)

Management Constraints often based on outside forces orstrategic planning decisions

Inter-projectesp. for partitioned projects or connected sub-projects

Datefor a specific date or no earlier/no later than a date


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Sequencing Tasks

CONSIDER:1. What has to come first?

2. When can a specific task start?Ex. Is it after activity X finishes or anytime after activity

Y starts?

3. Use F-S (Finish Start) to begin with (simplestrelationship)

1. What sub-projects can run simultaneously?4. Include Lag variable (waiting for delivery) and

Management Float (overall padding)


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Calculating THE SCHEDULE

Follow all paths through the arrowdiagram, calculating the starts & finishes:

EF = ES+duration - 1 time unit ES = EF of predecessor + 1 time unit

LS = LF-duration + 1 time unit

LF = LS (next activity) 1 time unit

Slack = LF-EF

PM software tools will do this calculation for you,but it is good to know how to do it manually


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Types of Diagrams

Gantt Charts (bar chart) useful during on-going project reviews (whats up next, howlong, etc)

Network (arrow) Diagrams esp for the initialproject analysis & review better way to viewdependencies & task connections

Example: http://www.uyea.btinternet.co.uk/jaon.html
http://www.uyea.btinternet.co.uk/jaon.htmlhttp://www.uyea.btinternet.co.uk/jaon.htmlhttp://www.uyea.btinternet.co.uk/jaon.html


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Critical Path

Longest path or sequence of activities(in terms of duration) from START to

FINISHSlack or Float: difference between

duration and the LF-EF Free slack Total slack

If on critical path, slack/float will be 0


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See handout for the MX project

Diagram the sequence of tasks withyour team and calculation the

Critical Path


Hands On Schedule Calculation


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Compressing the Schedule

GOAL: Fit more activities into shorterperiods of time (concurrent, sub-divide

and run concurrently, etc)Change FS to SS to run groups of

activities concurrently

Partition or break down activity intosmaller parts that will more easily runconcurrently


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Analyze the Diagram & Schedule

Does it achieve the desired finish date?

Have all the concurrent processes beenidentified and changed?

If still significantly off the finish date,

you may need to identify scopereductions to accommodate thedesired finish.


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Schedule Compression Resource Leveling

Utilize available slack Adjust starts/finishes to use up slack where it exists

to allow for staff availability

Shift project finish date where resources are the primary constraint

Smoothing or outside resources scheduled overtime to meet a specific deadline

STREEETCHING activities across a longertimeframe (less % resource per day)

LIKELY to IMPACT PROJECT SCHEDULE!


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Resource Management

What would you expect the initialresource plan to look like after

compressing the schedule?Why does resource leveling make

sense

What role would you plan foroutside or contract resources?


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Other issues to consider

How to include time for Projectmeetings, administrative reporting time

Project Manager deliverables reports,status updates

TO WHAT LEVEL OF DETAIL should theProject Manager manage?


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Process to date

1. IDENTIFYgoals & requirements2. BREAKDOWNrequirements into activities

that together will achieve the goals

3. ANALYZEeach activity for duration,required resources, predecessors &successors

4. CREATEnetwork diagram & compressschedule

5. ASSIGNresources & level


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Creating the WBS

Case Canadian GamesScheduling the work

Estimating the work effort

DUE NEXT CLASS (Thursday):

WBS, Initial Schedule, & Budget


Content Re-Cap


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Use this time to discussWBS for your project

Order tasks for schedule

Estimate work packages = budget

This is all the deliverables until afterthe mid-term!!!

Team Meeting