cs 149: understanding stascs using...
TRANSCRIPT
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CS 149: Understanding Sta2s2cs Using Baseball
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Outline for today
Introduc)onsGooversyllabusThehistoryofsta)s)csinbaseballBaseballsta)s)csandstructureddata
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Introduc2ons
Aboutyou:
• Name• Preferredgenderpronouns• YearatHampshire:DivI,II-firstyear,II-secondyear,III• Abitaboutyourbackground
• E.g.experiencewithbaseball,programmingandSta)s)cs
• Anythingelseyouwanttosay
Isthereanytopicyouarepar)cularlyinterestedin?i.e.,whyareyouinterestedinthisclass?
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General Informa2on
Mycontactinfo: Email:[email protected]
Phone:x5500 Office:ASH133Drop-inofficehours:
• Monday2:30-3:30pm• Tuesday12:30-1:30• Byappointment
Website:hVps://moodle.hampshire.edu/course/view.php?id=5532
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Course objec2ves
1.Tounderstandhowtousesta$s$calmethodsandthinkingtomakesenseofbaseballandothersystemsthatinvolverandomprocesses2.TobeabletousetheRprogramminglanguagetoanalyzedata
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Note: sta2s2cs vs. Sta2s2cs
sta$s$cs:arenumericalsummariesofdata
Sta$s$cs:isthemathema)csofcollec)ng,organizingandinterpre)ngdata
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Why use baseball to study Sta2s2cs?
Highdegreeofrandomness• Verygoodplayershitsafely3outof10)mes(ave=.300)• Badplayershitsafely2outof10)mes(ave=.200)
Containsarichstructurethatrepeats,whichmakesitpossibletoisolatecomponentsandanalyzethem
• Discreteeventsmakesitrela)velyeasytoanalyze:• Pitches->plateappearances->innings->games->seasons->$
Lotsofdataavailable• Datagoingbackto1871
Overall:Excellentsystemtoprac)ceusingdatatoanswerrealques)ons
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Background knowledge
Noprerequisites
Familiaritywiththebasicrulesofbaseballwillbeuseful• Wewillbrieflygoovertherulesandwatchaninningsofbaseballnextclass• Wecanalsoarrangeaddi)onal)meforstudentswhowant
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Required Textbooks
TeachingSta)s)csUsingBaseball(TSUB)BigDataBaseball(BDB)
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Highly recommended textbook
AnalyzingBaseballDatawithR• Availableasane-bookthroughHampshire
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Other recommended books MoneyballTheSabermetricrevolu)on
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Topics covered
Visualizingandexploringasinglebatchofdata
Comparingbatchesofdataandstandardiza)on
Rela)onshipsbetweenmeasuredvariables
Introduc)ontoprobability
Introduc)ontosta)s)calinference• Hypothesistestsandconfidenceintervals
Ifthereis)me:• Modelingbaseballgames• Othersabermetrictopics
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Types of ques2ons we will be trying to answer using sta2s2cs
Howmuchmorevaluableisahomeruncomparedtoasingle?
Whichsta)s)csbestcaptureabaseballplayersability• i.e.,isonbasepercentageabeVermeasurethanbaVeraverage?
WhoisthebestbaseballhiVerofall)me?ArecertainbaseballplayersstreakyorclutchhiVers?DidtheTigersmakeagooddecisionsigningMiguelCabrerafor$292millionoverthenext8years?
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Class assignments
1.WeeklyworksheetsthatinvolveRandotherproblems• AssignedonThursdaysandtheyareduethefollowingSundayatmidnight
• AlsoclassreadingsfromTeachingSta)s)csUsingBaseball
2.Weekly‘quoteandreac)ons’toBigDataBaseballchapter
3.One‘beVerknowaplayerpresenta)ons’(onMondays)• 5-10minutepresenta)onaboutabaseball/sokballplayer(oranothertopicrelatedtotheclass)
4.Afinalprojectwhereyouanalyzerelatedtobaseball(ortheclassmoregenerally)andwriteupa5-10pagepaperabouttheresults
5.Aclasspresenta)onaboutyourfinalproject
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Policies
Veryimportanttoturnyourworkinon)me!• Threestrikeslatepolicy• Ifyouturninthreeassignmentslateyoudon’tgetanevalua)on
AVendclass
Youcanusealaptopfornotes,butobviouslydonotuseitforanythingnotrelatedtotheclass
CheckyourHampshireemailand/orsetupmailforwarding.IwillsendannouncementstoyourHampshireemailaccount
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Policies
Incompleteswillonlybegivenoutinveryexcep)onalcircumstances
Specialneeds:pleaseletmeknowifyouhaveadisabilityorspecialneed.AlsoitwouldbeagoodtotalktoAaronFerguson–x5498
Academicdishonesty:youcanworkontheworksheetswithothersbuttheworkyouturninneedstobeyourown(i.e.,youneedtounderstandtheconcepts).
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To make this class a success…
Ac)velyengagedintheclass• Dothereadingsandjoininthediscussions
Communitylearningenvironment• Shareinteres)ngthingsyou’velearned• Iwanttolearnfromyoutoo
Followingyourinterests• Icanadapttheclasstopeople’sinterests
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Class survey
InorderformetogettoknowyouandtobeVeradjusttheclasstoyourinterests,pleasefilloutthesurvey
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The history of baseball sta2s2cs
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Early sta2s2cs HenryChadwick(1824-1908)createdthefirstboxescoreinthe1859issueofClipper.
• FirsttouseKforstrikeout,saidtohaveinventedbaqngaverageandearnedrunaverage
• DidnotrecordwalksbecausehedidnotfeeltheyreflectedabaVersskill
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Classic sta2s2cs
Mostprominenthiqngsta)s)cs:• Baqngaverage,RBIs,andhomeruns
Mostprominentpitchingsta)s)cs:• Wins,earnedrunaverage,strikeouts
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Sabermetrics
Ques)onedhowusefultradi)onalmeasuresofperformance,suchasbaqngaverageorpitcherwinsSabermetricsdefini)ons:
1.Theempiricalormathema)cal/Sta)s)calstudyofbaseball2."thesearchforobjec)veknowledgeaboutbaseball”
-BillJames
Namecomesfrom‘SocietyforAmericanBaseballResearch’(SABR),agroupstartedin1971
• Pre-computers,hadtocompileallinforma$onfromboxscoresbyhandsincetherewasnoencyclopediathathadgamebygamedata
Sabermetricsfirstwidelyintroducetothepublicin1982withthepublica)onofBillJamesBaseballAbstract
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Baseball data sets
LahmanDatabase:Season-by-seasondata
RetrosheetGame-by-Gamedata
RetrosheetPlay-by-Playdata
PITCHf/x:Pitch-by-Pitchdata(loca)on,pitchtype)
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A few prominent Sabermetric publica2ons/websites
SocietyforAmericanBaseballResearch
BillJamesOnline
BaseballAnalysts
BaseballProspectus
BeyondtheBoxScore
FanGraphs
TheHardballTimes
TangoTiger
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Moneyball
StoryabouthowtheBillyBean,thegeneralmanageroftheA’s,wasabletoputtogetheratoprankedteamin2002ona)ghtbudgetbyfindingundervaluedplayersusingadvancedsta)s)cs
Someoftheclaimsofthebookmightbeexaggeratedbythebookhadabitimpactontheexpansionofmajorleagueclubsdoingadvanceddataanalyses.
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Big Data Baseball
Morerecentsabermetricadvances• 2013PiVsburghPirates
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Increasing analy2cs to gain an edge
hVp://online.wsj.com/news/ar)cle_email/baseballs-science-experiment-1411135882-lMyQjAxMTA0NzE3OTIxNDkwWj
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Common baseball sta2s2cs
Let’slookatsomebaseballcards…
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Structured data
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Lahman Database – Individual player yearly baXng sta2s2cs
Cases
Variables
DatatakenfromtheLahmanBaqngdataset
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Example Dataset – Individual player yearly sta2s2cs
Cases
Variables
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Example Dataset – Individual player yearly sta2s2cs
Cases
Variables
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Categorical and Quan2ta2ve Variables Cases
CategoricalVariable Quan)ta)veVariable
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Explanatory and Response Variables
Some)mesweuseonevariable(theexplanatoryvariable)tounderstand/predictanothervariable(theresponsevariable)
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Another Dataset – 2014 Team sta2s2cs Cases
Variables
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Next class – examining a single batch of data
Filloutsurveyonline!(linkisonMoodle)Readchapter1ofBigDataBaseballandpostaquoteandreac)ontotheMoodleforumbymidnightonSundayReadchapter1ofTeachingSta)s)csUsingBaseball