crowdsourcing predictors of behavioral outcomes
TRANSCRIPT
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Crowdsourcing Predictors of Behavioral Outcomes
Presented by
Alekya.Yermal(Lead) (10NJ1A0502)
I.Aiysha Sham (10NJ1A0514)S.M.V.N.Sowndarya(10NJ1A0537)V.Padmavathi (10NJ1A0542)
Under the guidance of Mrs.D.Usha Rajeswari
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CROWD SOURCING PREDICTORS OF
BEHAVIORAL OUTCOMES
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Retrieving bulk of data from crowd
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Introduction
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• Generating models from large data sets—and determining which subsets of data to
mine —is becoming increasingly automated.
• This was accomplished by building a Web platform in which human groups interact to both respond to questions likely to help predict a behavioral outcome
and pose new questions to their peers.
• Result- dynamically growing online survey, this behavior also leads to models that can predict the user’s outcomes based on their responses to the user-generated
survey questions.
• Example: 1) Predict users’ monthly electric energy consumption. 2) Predict users’ body mass index.
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Existing System
• Statistical tools such as multiple regression or neural networks provide mature methods for computing model parameters when the set of predictive covariates and the model structure are pre-specified.
• The task of choosing which potentially predictive variables to study is largely a qualitative task that requires substantial domain expertise.
• Example:1) A survey designer must have domain expertise to choose questions that will identify predictive covariates.
2) An engineer must develop substantial familiarity with a design in order to determine which variables can be systematically adjusted in order to optimize performance.
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Disadvantages of existing system
• There are many problems in which one seeks to develop predictive models to map between a set of predictor variables and an outcome.
• One aspect of the scientific method that has not yet yielded to automation is the selection of variables for which data should be collected to evaluate hypotheses.
• In the case of a prediction problem, machine science is not yet able to select the independent variables that might predict an outcome of interest, and for which data collection is required.
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Proposed System
TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT
• The goal of this research is to test an alternative approach to model in which the wisdom of crowds is harnessed to both propose which potentially predictive variables to study by asking questions and to respond to those questions, in order to develop a predictive model.
• This paper introduces, for the first time, a method by which non-domain experts can be motivated to formulate independent variables as well as populate enough of these variables for successful modeling.
• Users arrive at a Web site in which a behavioral outcome is to be modeled. Users provide their own outcome and then answer questions that may be predictive of that outcome .
• Periodically, models are constructed against the growing data set that predict each user’s behavioral outcome. Users may also pose their own questions that, when answered by other users, become new independent variables in the modeling process.
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Advantages of proposed system
• Participants successfully uncovered at least one statistically significant predictor of the outcome variable.
• For the BMI outcome, the participants successfully formulated many of the correlates known to predict BMI and provided sufficiently honest values for those correlates to become predictive during the experiment.
• While, our instantiations focus on energy and BMI, the proposed method is general and might, as the method improves, be useful to answer many difficult questions regarding why some outcomes are different than others.
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SOFTWARE CONFIGURATION
Operating System : Windows 7, 8.Coding Language: JAVA/JSP Front End design: HTML, CSS, JavaScriptDatabase : MYSQLDatabase Connectivity: JDBCServer: Apache Tomcat V.7
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Hardware requirements
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Processor - Pentium –IVSpeed - 1.1 GHzRAM - 256 MB(min)Hard Disk - 20 GBKey Board - Standard Windows KeyboardMonitor - SVGA
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Main Modules:-
1. Investigator Behavior
2. User Behavior
3. Model Behavior
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Investigator Behavior
The investigator is responsible for initially creating the web platform, and seeding it with a starting question. Then, as the experiment runs they filter new survey questions generated by the users.
However, once posed, the question was filtered by the investigator as to its suitability . A question was deemed unsuitable if any of the following conditions were met:
(1) the question revealed the identity of its author (e.g. “Hi, I am John Doe. I would like to know if...”) thereby contravening the Institutional Review Board approval for these experiments;
(2) the question contained profanity or hateful text; (3) the question was inappropriately correlated with the outcome (e.g.
“What is your BMI?”).
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User Behavior
Users who visit the site first provide their individual value for the outcome of interest. Users may then respond to questions found on the site .
Their answers are stored in a common data set and made available to the modeling engine.
At any time a user may elect to pose a question of their own devising. Users could pose questions that required a yes/no response, a five-level Liker rating, or a number. Users were not constrained in what kinds of questions to pose.
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Model Behavior
• The modeling engine continually generates predictive models using the survey questions as candidate predictors of the outcome and users’ responses as the training data.
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Architecture
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System Design
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Admin
Check
unauthorized user
Yes No
Take Survey
Discard Question
End Process
Add Question
Admin Login
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User
Check
unauthorized user
Yes No
Pose Question
Poll
End Process
Play Quiz
UserB Login
Rate It
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Use Case Diagram
Take Survey
Admin User
Pose Question
Add Question
Discard Question
Vote for Poll
Rate It
Play Quiz
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Class Diagram
Login()_
User namePassword
check valid()unvalid()
UserA Login()
Take SurveyAdd QuestionDiscard Question
UserA process()
UserB Login()
Pose QuestionPlay QuizPollRate It
UserB process()
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Activity Diagram
Pose Question
Play Quiz
Poll
Take Survey
Discard Question
UserB Login UserA Login
Start
End Process
Add Question
Rate It
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Sequence Diagram
Admin UserB
System Database
Take SurveyPose Question
Play Quiz
Add Question
Poll
Rate It
Discard Question
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Sample screens of implementation
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•Creating user profile
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•User login page
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•Home Page
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User creates quiz question
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User creates poll question
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Select quiz
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Add question to quiz
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User playing quiz
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User selects poll
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Poll question-user
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User submits poll question
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Rate quiz
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Rating
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Admin login
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Add question - pool
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Conclusion
This paper introduced a new approach to social science modeling in which the participants themselves are motivated to uncover the correlates of some human behavior outcome, such as homeowner electricity usage or body mass index.
In both cases participants successfully uncovered at least one statistically significant predictor of the outcome variable.
The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate a system that enables non domain experts to collectively formulate many of the known (and possibly unknown) predictors of a behavioral outcome, and that this system is independent of the outcome of interest.