cropclimate | using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers
TRANSCRIPT
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Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria [email protected]
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
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CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
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CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
We can not control:
Climate Main cause for interannual variability
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CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can not control:
But we can forecast it
and used it for decision making
Climate
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Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
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Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
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Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Risk Taker vs Risk Averse
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CropClimate.org
CropClimate is a non-funded platform that
translates categorical seasonal climate information
into crop management decisions
to
take advantage and reduce impacts of climate on agriculture
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CropClimate.org
CropClimate will support Users in making decisions such as:
- Selecting cultivar
- Selecting planting date
- Selecting plant density
- Selecting crop insurance
and it will provide Users with information about
- Nationwide county level crop yield forecasts (prices?)
- Climate risk forecasts
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Categorical Seasonal Climate monitoring & forecasts (teleconnection indices)
Categorical Discrete (e.g. El Niño, Neutral, La Niña)
Seasonal Climate
1 to 9 months in advance
CropClimate.org
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Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
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Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño Neutral La Niña
CropClimate.org
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Worldwide effects of ENSO
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
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CropClimate.org
Worldwide effects of ENSO
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Source: https://www2.ucar.edu/
Teleconnections Map
CropClimate.org
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Yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
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Technology de-trended yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
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So we know the effects, now
What can we do?
CropClimate.org
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Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria [email protected]
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
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• Because climate is non-stationary, global and regional climate driver trends are no longer important
Source: The University of Alabama in Huntsville