CROATIACROATIA

Risk Assessment ExerciseRisk Assessment Exercise

JRC Institute for EnergyEnlargement and Integration Workshop, 5-7 October 2011

Hotel Valamar Lacroma, Dubrovnik, Croatia

Robert Bošnjak, Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar

BASIC INDICATORSBASIC INDICATORS

- TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYo In TPES the structure of energy consumption is somewhat more unfavorable as

compared to the EU-27. Crude oil has a 2 times higher share than in EU-27, while the consumption of natural gas is 50 percent higher than in the EU-27. The EU Member States make up for the lower share of crude oil with higher shares of hydro, coal, comb. renewables and waste and nuclear .

CROATIA

Crude Oil

54%

Petroleum

Products

0%

Natural Gas

26%

Hydro

6%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

0%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

4%

Electricity

5%

Heat

0%Coal

5%

Nuclear

0%

EU-27

Crude Oil

26%

Petroleum

Products

0%

Natural Gas

17%

Hydro

23%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

1%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

12%

Coal

11%

Nuclear

10%

BASIC INDICATORSBASIC INDICATORS

- TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONo In TFEC energy shares are almost identical as to that of the EU-27

CROATIA

Petroleum

Products

48%

Gas

23%

Electricity

19%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

0%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

5%

Crude Oil

0%

Heat

3%Coal

2%

EU-27

Coal

3%

Petroleum

Products

44%

Gas

23%

Electricity

20%

Crude Oil

0%

Heat

4%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

6%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

0%

BASIC INDICATORSBASIC INDICATORS

- ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONo In the production of electricity there is no dominant energy source. Share of

petroleum product is high. An increase in the use of natural gas and coal can be expected in the future, and most probable in nuclear also, due to the need to reduce CO2 emissions.

CROATIA

Coal

18%Crude Oil

0%

Petroleum

Products

24%

Gas

30%

Nuclear

0%

Hydro

28%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

0%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

0%

EU-27

Coal

30%

Crude Oil

0%

Petroleum

Products

4%

Gas

20%

Nuclear

33%

Hydro

4%

Geoth. Solar

etc.

3%

Combust.Rene

w. Waste

6%

GDNE – Gas Dependency of National Economy

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

year

ITALY AUSTRIA

BULGARIA ROMANIA

CROATIA

SECURITY OF SUPPLYSECURITY OF SUPPLYGas dependence of national economy

= (gas imports/total gas use) × (total gas use/total energy use) × (total

energy use/GDP)

HHI – Hirschmann Herfindhal Index

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

year

ITALY AUSTRIA

BULGARIA ROMANIA

CROATIA

SECURITY OF SUPPLYSECURITY OF SUPPLYHerfindahl-Hirschman Index

measure of market concentration, 1,000 to be a competitive marketplace; a result of 1,000-1,800 to be a moderately concentrated marketplace; and a result of 1,800

or greater to be a highly concentrated marketplace

GAS CONSUMPTIONGAS CONSUMPTION

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

10

9 m

3

Net Production Imports Total Gas Supply

65

35

GAS GAS CONSCONS.. FORECASTFORECAST

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

10

9 m

3

Available (production and exist. import) Difference (new import)

- 5

GAS SYSTEMGAS SYSTEM

6,51,7

source: Plinacro

SECURITYSECURITY

Croatia = 184%

source: EC secretariat

GAS SYSTEMGAS SYSTEM

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

10

9 m

3

Production Slovenija - Rogatec

Hungary - D. Miholjac Exp. Bosnia and Herzegovina

Difference (-surplus +new capacity needed)

GAS SYSTEMGAS SYSTEM

6,51,7

+ ?

+ 5

+ 2

source: Plinacro

RISKSRISKS

source: ENTSOG

POLITICAL

Diversification of supplyLarger storageRisk mitigation measures

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

Nor

way

Den

mar

k

Net

herla

nds

Alban

ia

Uni

ted

Kingd

omR

oman

iaC

roat

ia

Azerb

aydz

han

Polan

dU

krai

neAus

tria

Hun

gary

Irish

Repu

blic

Ger

man

yIta

lyYug

osla

via

Bulga

riaTur

key

Franc

eSlo

vaki

a

Cze

ch R

epub

licG

reec

e

Byelo

russ

iaSpa

inG

eorg

iaSlo

veni

aArm

enia

Belgi

um

Bosni

a an

d H

erce

govi

naC

ypru

sEst

onia

Finla

ndIc

elan

dLa

tvia

Lith

uania

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mac

edon

iaM

alta

Mol

dova

Portu

gal

Swed

en

Switz

erla

nd1

09 m

3

Gas TPES

Storage working capacity

Producers - more

than 50 percent

from domestic

sources

Storage in gas

TPES

7 %

Producers - more

than 15-35 percent

from domestic

sources

Storage in gas

TPES

25 %

Importers - <15 percent from domestic sources

Storage in gas TPES

12 %

STORAGESTORAGE

Goal:

Reach >30 % in gas TPES

(strategic and

peak shaving)

CRISIS MITIGATIONCRISIS MITIGATION1. Decrease supply of gas heat and power to 62.000 m3/h , fertilizers to

60.000 m3/h, refinery to 10.000 m3/h

2. Decrease supply of fertilizers to 15.000 m3/h, refinery to technical minimum and others on transport to available capacity

3. Decrease supply of all costumers with replacements fuels

4. Decrease supply of gas heat and power to 32.000 m3/h , fertilizers and others on transport to technical minimum

5. Decrease supply to costumer on distribution level with replacements fuels

6. Supply interruption to non-producing costumer on distribution level to technical minimum

7. Decrease supply to producing costumer on distribution level to technical minimum

8. Supply interruption to all costumer on transport (not heat and power), and to costumers on distribution level

9. Supply interruption to all costumers except protected

10.Supply interruption to all to of the minimal functioning level of gas system