critical thinking a to lin presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Jackson NickersonFrahm Family Professor of Organization and Strategy
Brookings Senior Scholar in Governance Studies
Associate Dean and Director of Brookings Executive Education
Welcome to the
GO!Program:
Critical Thinkingand
Impactful
Communications
GO!Program Agenda
Your expectations and my goalsFreemark Abby WineryWhy isnt critical thinking easy?Improving critical thinking
I2 process and informal processes for formulation Elements of inquiry Four categories of intellectual standards Disposition
Professors Argyres and Dunkin will continue with the restof the course.
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Your expectations and my goals
What expectations do you have about Critical Thinkingand Impactful Communications?
What are the indicators for a successful course?My goals are
for you to learn more from Olins MBA program than studentslearn in other programs.
for you to out think MBAs from other programs. for you to out perform job applicants from other programs. for you to develop out of the box thinking skills that will allow
you to excel in your career.
I dare you to take full responsibility to transform yourthinking and change your life for ever.
Freemark Abbey
What is the situation?What decision does Mr. Jaeger have to make?How would you advise him?Vote!How do you know that you did a good job advising him?Take a few moments to talk with a partner next to you
discover and evaluate their thinking process.
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Why critical thinking?
Modern management practices revolve around makingdecisions, often collectively.
What makes for a good business decision? How do you make decisions now? How do you think you should be making decisions?
At the Olin Business School we believe that criticalthinking underpins great decision-making.
Great critical thinking is sufficiently rare that you can differentiateyourselves IF you invest in continuously improving your thinking.
Why critical thinking?
It is a focal skill desired by the best employers. Procter & Gamble: Features of our Problem Solving Test include three
types of questions which require critical thinking and analytical skills
Goldman Sachs: they foster creativity, critical thinking and self-reliance
Deloitte: proven analytical and critical thinking skills. Citigroup MBAs with concentration inMarketing, Analytics, or
General Mgt; 3 to 5 years of relevant work experience; Demonstrated
leadership; Critical thinking.
J&J: competencies required forHuman resources leadership,including: Strategic Contribution Business acumen, Critical thinking,
Drive for results.
Bank of America: proficiencies in critical thinking, leadership, businessacumen, and relationship building.
Dell as critical thinking...
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Why critical thinking?
Top skill gap in todays workforce is critical thinking Recent skill gap study by UMSL of 320 St. Louis employers
President Obamas Council of Economic Advisorsconcluded the top worker need is
critical thinking and problem solving.Olin Business School advanced from the middle to top of
the pack in employment statistics 90-days after
graduation for the top 50 MBA programs.
Why isnt critical thinking easy?
You will face different kinds of change challenges:
Easy
Moderate(need management)
Hard
Moderate(need creativity)
Complexity of
challenge
Simple(few moving parts)
Complex(Many moving parts)
Structuredness
of challengeStructured(routine, done before)
Ill-structured(Novel, first time)
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Why isnt critical thinking easy?
Ill-defined, ill-structured, messy complex problems aredifficult to solve.
As MBAs, these are the problems you are hired to solve.Solving such problems involves cognitive, social, and
emotional elements.
These elements conspire to: limit the search for problem formulations, which can lead to
solving the wrong problem.
limit the search for solutions, which can lead to inferior decisions. block out disconfirming evidence that could help you overcome
these limitations. generate poor decision-making.
Branches of critical thinking
Logical reasoning
Comprehensively
formulating andovercoming
thinking traps
LaunchInquiry
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Common thinking traps
Information trap Information sampling (usually found in teams)
Focusing only on information held in common limits andnarrows alternatives
Knowledge traps Framing bias
Accepting and using a narrow approach or description of thesituation or issue narrows alternatives
Drawing conclusions based on how data or questions arepresented limits alternatives
Anchoring Relying heavily on a past reference or on one trait or piece ofinformation when making decisions narrows alternatives
More common thinking traps
Motivation traps Propensity to jump to solutions
Economizing on thinking time reduces exploration ofalternative problem formulations and solutions
Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions Confirmation bias
Searching for, criticizing, distorting, or dismissing informationto maintain or strengthen existing beliefs narrows alternatives
Not seeking for evidence to disconfirm an hypothesis orbelief locks in previously stated solutions
Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions
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More common thinking traps
Motivation trap (continued) Self-serving and self-justification biases
Evaluating ambiguous information in a way beneficial to yourinterests locks in previously stated solutions
Believing our own perceptions are accurate, realistic, andunbiased locks in previously stated solutions
Increases with self-confidence narrowing alternatives Ego locks individuals into solutions
Note the role of ego in triggering motivational traps.
Why are cognitive biases important?
Can you identify any traps in your partners thinking?
Propensity to jump to solutionsFraming biasAnchoring biasConfirmation biasSelf-serving biasSelf-justification bias
Prevalence Impact
Code with: None, Some, Alotbe prepared to explain your coding
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How did your partner do? Did you perceive any biases?How prevalent are these biases in business and society?Biases trap us. We all suffer from them.Biases erode the quality of decision-making.Likelihood of biases increases with complexity and
messiness of problem or question posed.
Unfortunately, simply knowing about cognitive biases isinsufficient for us to overcome them.
Bias (and hence traps) are more severe with educationand confidence.
What would Blinkby Malcolm Gladwell have to say?
Why are cognitive biases important?
What might you be thinking?
I dont suffer from these biases. When was the last time that you jumped to a solution before
spending time to formulate an issue problem?
Have you ever blamed others without first blaming yourself?I got into Olin. Isnt my critical thinking good enough?I thought all I needed to know was the content of Olin
courses to get a good job.
I thought all I needed for a good job is good grades.How will employers know that I am good at critical
thinking?
How will faculty improve my critical thinking?
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Critical Thinking@Olin
Diving into the specifics
Intelligent thinkers
Sternberg et al. (1981) synthesized researchcharacterizing people who are believed to be intelligent
thinkers. Intelligent thinkers:
Reason systematically Solve problems well Think in a logical way Deploy a good vocabulary Make use of a rich stock of information Remain focused on their goals Display intelligence in practical as well as academic ways
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In contrast
Perkins (1995) summarized research on individuals whoare not considered to be intelligent thinkers. These
attributes are:
Hasty impulsive, little deep processing in examining alternatives
Narrow assumptions not challenged, points of view not examined
Fuzzy careless, imprecise, full of complications
Sprawlinggeneral disorganization, fail to advance or conclude
What is critical thinking?
Typical definition: Critical thinking is thinking explicitly aimed at asking and
answering questions with well-founded judgment, utilizing
appropriate evaluation standards.
Now for a more complicated definition
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What is critical thinking?
An exceptional critical thinker: Probes from multiple points of view, understanding the purpose of each
perspective, to comprehensively formulate a problem clearly andprecisely with appropriate relevance, depth, breadth, and significance.
Identifies concepts to help formulate problems as well as solve themand uses concepts to identify, gather, assess, and interpret relevantinformation.
Is evenhanded and ethical in approaching problems and developingsolutions, recognizing assumptions, implications, and practicalconsequences.
Draws conclusions or creates solutions to fully address the complexityof the situation and evaluates long-run consequences looking for waysto mitigate negative effects.
Is attuned to the possibilities of individual and group biases and takessteps to avoid or mitigate them.
Communicates clearly, precisely, accurately, and logically with others infiguring out solutions to complex problems.
Critical thinking is self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, andself-corrective thinking.
What is Critical Thinking@Olin?
Critical Thinking@Olin is comprised of four components Processes
are necessary to avoid biases that undermine thinking andproblem formulation and represent the vital ingredient that
often is missing in critical thinking.
Elements span categories of consideration for critical thinking.
Standards help you evaluate the quality of your thinking.
Disposition and Reflection explains that you are solely responsible for your thinking and
suggests how you can continuously improve your thinking.
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Processes for inquiry for
Critical Thinking@Olin
Comprehensively formulate before solving
Overcoming bias and ego
Some of the greatest sources of biases come fromjumping to a solution and ego.
Individuals often jump to a solution/decision and by doing somake a mental commitment.
This commitment creates a powerful force that leads to many ofthe biases that contaminate thinking and lead to politics.
What can you think of to remove this bias?Einstein once noted with respect to science, although it
is likely true for business endeavors as well, that,
the formulation of a problem is often more essential than itssolution
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Processes ofCritical Thinking@Olin
Processes can be mechanisms for overcoming biases. Only a few basic processes will be discussed in the course. We will focus in a basic individual inquiry (I2) process. It is important to note that process-based outcomes are sensitive
to even minor variations in:
LanguageAttitude/atmosphere Process steps sequence
Facilitation skills are especially important when implementing acollective thinking process.
Individual Inquiry (I2) Process
Forestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoa
decisionorsolu6on
DivergentThinking
LaunchInquiry
Problem finding, framing, formulating Problem solving
DivergentThinking
ConvergentThinking
Reflec6on
Decision
ChooseProblem
set ofquestions
chosento be
addressed
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A few definitions
Inquiry is a process of (hopefully critical) thinking.Finding is the search for, discovery of, awareness of, or
choosing of something to be addressed.
Framing is the set of indicators, symptoms, data, etc.that indicate or are considered part of a problem.
Formulation is the set of root causes or the core issueto be addressed.
Divergent thinking expands alternatives, perspectives,and possibilities.
Convergent thinking reduces alternatives, perspectives,and possibilities often with respect to criteria.
Lets return to Freemark Abbey
Compare and contrast your experiences To what extent did you and your partner explore alternative
formulations of the problem?
Did you formulate the situation comprehensively? How much time did you and your partner spend formulating the
problem compared to solving the problem?
When attempting to solve the problem, did you explorealternative solution approaches?
When you arrived at a solution, to what extent did you reflect onthe formulation, solution approach, and your decision?
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Divergent thinking
Informal ways to expand framing What data, indicators, symptoms etc. are relevant or correlated
to the symptom that launched the inquiry?
What else is happening at the same time/situation?Informal ways to expand formulation
Set aside the existing formulation and find another one. Before I get to a solution, what problem am I trying to solve. How can the conversation be expanded to consider other
perspectives or alternatives for formulating the problem?
Is there an overarching formulation that encapsulates others?Are short-run as well as long-run issues considered? Have I formulated the situation comprehensively?
Informal formulation process
YouSet aside
Find another
All symptomsAll causes
Expand theConversation
What problem are we solving?
OverarchingFormulation
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Individual Inquiry with
Informal Problem Formulation
Forestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoa
decisionorsolu6on
DivergentThinking
LaunchInquiry
Problem finding, framing, formulating Problem solving
DivergentThinking
ConvergentThinking
Reflec6on
Decision
All symptomsAll causes
OverarchingFormulation
Expand theConversation
Set asideFind another
Problem formulation in business
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Key insights from I2 process
Finding, framing, and formulating problems Forestall jumping to a decision, inference, or conclusion Probe and ask questions to comprehensively formulate Spend about half the time available to you formulatingIt is better to have an incomplete or approximate answer/
decision to the right problem than to solve completely and
precisely the wrong problem.
What makes for a good problem formulation?A good formulation will be defined tomorrow after a several
more concepts are reviewed.
What more formal approaches to problem formulation(and critical thinking more generally) are available?
Eight elements of
Critical Thinking@Olin
PPPICACC
A more formal approach to formulation
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Eight elements of critical thinking
Each point of view can see challenges differently.Each actor or constituency can differ in their purposes.Problems and challenges can be formulated many ways.All reasoning is based on data, information, & evidence.All reasoning is expressed through, and shaped by,
concepts and ideas.
All reasoning is based on assumptions.All reasoning contains inferences or interpretations by
which we draw conclusions and give meaning to data.
All reasoning leads somewhere or has implications andconsequences.
Points of view
Point of view describes how people perceives a situationbased on their information and knowledge.
Seek out and identify all relevant and significant points ofview for the situation being considered.
Be comprehensive in identifying all points of view. Seek other points of view and identify their, as well as your own,
strengths as well as weaknesses.
Clearly and precisely identify your own point of view and how itdiffers from others.
Strive to be evenhanded in evaluating all points of view.
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Purposes
A purpose reflects goals, objectives, and preferences(i.e., motivations) of individuals and organizations.
For each point of view understand what you and otherswant to accomplish.
What are the various actors purposes and objectives inaddressing the situation?
Can you state their purposes clearly and precisely?Are some purposes significant and primary while others are
secondary?
How do purposes and objectives shape both point of view andtheir formulation of the challenge?
Are you evenhanded and ethical as you consider the full rangeof purposes?
Problems
A problem is the formulation of a challenge to be solved.Formulate the challenge comprehensively.
How can you develop multiple formulations by considering the issue from
multiple points of view?
express issue in several ways to clarify meaning and scope? distinguish questions with definitive answers from those that
require opinion?
Have you formulated the question with the appropriaterelevance, depth, breadth, and significance?
Try formulating more broadly as well as more narrowly. Seek a deeper formulation. Seek significant and relevant aspects not yet formulated.
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P
P
P
PP
PPP
P
P
P
POV
POV
POV POV
POV
POVPOV
POV
POV
Information, data, & evidence
Definition: What information do you need to formulate the question? What information are you using in coming to your conclusion? What experience have you had to support your claims?
Guidelines: Restrict formulations/solutions to those supported by evidence. Search for information that supports and opposes your position. Make sure you have gathered necessary/sufficient information.
Evaluation: Do you cite relevant evidence, experiences, and/or information
essential to the issue?
Is the information accurate and precise? Do you address the complexities of the issue?
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Concepts and ideas
Definition: What is the main idea or concepts used to understand the
situation to make a decision?
Can you explain this idea clearly and precisely?Guidelines:
Identify key concepts and explain them clearly. Consider alternative concepts or alternative definitions of
concepts.
Make sure you are using concepts with care and precision.Evaluation:
Do you clearly identify the key concepts?
Are you presenting and using these concepts precisely? Is the main concept relevant? Are other concepts relevant?
Assumptions
Definition: What are you taking for granted? What assumptions have led you to your conclusion?
Guidelines: Clearly identify assumptions and justify them. Consider how your assumptions are shaping the various points
of view.
Evaluation: Do you show a sensitivity to what you are taking for granted or
assuming? Do you use questionable assumptions without addressing
problems which might be inherent in those assumptions?
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Conclusions
Definition: What decision or answer did you reach? Is your answer sufficiently deep, broad, and comprehensive?
Guidelines: Infer only what the evidence implies. Check inferences for their consistency with each other. Identify assumptions that lead you to your inferences. Insure that your conclusions are robust.
Evaluation: Do you develop a line of reasoning explaining well how you
arrived at your main conclusions?
Consequences
Definition: What are the potential long-run implications of your decision? What are the implications if you take your answer to its logical
conclusion?
Guidelines: Trace the implications and consequences that follow from your
reasoning.
Search for negative as well as positive implications. Consider all possible consequences.
Evaluation: Do you show a sensitivity to the implications and consequences
of the position you are taking?
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PPPICACC (pronouncedPickaxe)
Points of viewPurposesProblemsInformationConceptsAssumptionsConclusionsConsequences
. Use a PPPICACC for difficult problems!
Points of view Purposes Problem
Information Concept Assumption
Conclusions Consequences
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P
P
P
PP
PPP
P
P
P
Jaegher
Other
Owners
Cust.
Lead
Cust.
Suppliers
Whole-
salers
Retailers
Wine
Maker
Comp.
Max short-run profitability? Max long-term profits? Maximize long term growth? Get botrytis every year Position brand as distinctive,
differentiated, and high
prestige?
Insure availability? Insure quality?
Is their an overarching formulation?
YouSet aside
Find another
All symptomsAll causes
Expand theConversation
Rule of Three
OverarchingFormulation
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I2 Process with PPPICACC
Reflec6onForestallthinkingoformentallycommi3ngtoadecisionorsolu6on
Consequences
Conclusions
Informa6on
DecisionConcepts
Assump6ons
Purpose
ProblemPoint
ofView
Informa6on
Concepts
Assump6ons
ChooseProblem
set ofquestions
chosento be
addressed
Launch
Inquiry
Critical Thinking@Olin Monograph
Booklet and othercollateral
How can the bookletbe used?
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Homework reminder
Due tomorrow morning at the BEGINNING of class. Write a consulting letter to William Jaeger offering advice. 300 words or less (no more than 300) Keep your write-up anonymous. You will electronically submit
and assess your write-ups tomorrow in class.
Bring an electronic copy of your write-up to class.Bring your COMPUTER TO CLASS ON Thursday and
be sure you can connect wirelessly to the Blackboard.
Note, Blackboard supports only a few browsers.Use your Collaborative Case Preparation Time to
discuss what you learned about I2.
Summary
Why critical thinking?What is critical thinking?What are the central traps and biases that limit and
narrow thinking?
What is the basic process forCritical Thinking@Olin?What are the elements of critical thinking and why are
they useful?
What are the main resources for teaching CriticalThinking@Olin?
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IF you remember only on thing
Formulate comprehensively before solving