Critical Issues in Transportation

2011

“The Future Ain’t What it Use to Be”

February 17, 2011

The UVM Transportation Research Center (TRC) is a hub for:•Innovative and interdisciplinary research•Education and outreach on sustainable transportation system solutions.

Since our founding in 2006, the TRC has: •attracted over $3.5 million to UVM in new external grants; •funded 67 graduate students with $28K stipends; •hosted over 3,200 people at its events;

•created seven new courses.

Four Key Factors Shaping our Future

• Demographics• Energy Costs• Climate Change• Funding

Which Sector uses the most Energy in the United States?

A.ResidentialB. CommercialC. IndustrialD.Transportation

Energy Costs

U.S. Oil Use By Sector

Transportation69%

Industrial23%

Residential7%

Electricity1%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005Data are for 2005

U.S. Vehicle miles traveled (1925-2009)

U.S. Motorization: Cars per 1,000 People

Source: David Jones, Mass Motorization and Mass Transit, 2008.

Vehicle Occupancy by Trip Purpose

Distance home to school (miles)

Driving Kids to School Increases

Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2009. http://nhts.ornl.gov/

Vermonters’ Trip Length

• 75% of trips taken by car are less than 1 mile

Trends In Personal Mobility

• People who walk to work dropped by 26% between 1990 and 2000.

• The average American driver spends 443 hours per year, or 55 8-hour working days behind the wheel

• Only 1 American in 200 rides a bicycle to work.

Demographics

Source: NIH

DEMOGRAPHICS

Which State has the highest median age:

A.FloridaB.MaineC.VermontD.New Hampshire

Rank Geographic area Median United States 36.6

1 Maine 41.62 Vermont 40.83 West Virginia 40.44 Florida 39.95 New Hampshire 39.86 Pennsylvania 39.7

Data Set: 2007 Population Estimates

Demographics

•2000-2006: New England’s population up 347,000

•Increase 407,000 in minority population•Decrease of 60,000 in white population

•Gain of 2.5 % is less than half that of the nation as a whole.

Carsey Institute – UNH 2008

Demographics

Why should transportation professionals care about public health?

Obesity and public health concernsDemographics

Obesity and public health concernsDemographics

How much does obesity cost our three states annually?

A.$300 millionB.$500 millionC.$750 millionD.$1 billion

State (Millions $)Maine $357 New Hampshire $302 Vermont $141 TOTAL $800

Estimated Adult Obesity-Attributable Percentages and Expenditures, by State (BRFSS 1998–2000)

•Transportation is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gases in the United States, accounting for 28% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.

•Transportation is also the largest end-use source of carbon dioxide (CO2)—the most prevalent greenhouse gas.

•28% of the energy we use in the US goes to transporting people and goods from one place to another.

Climate Change

How is climate change affecting our transportation system?

A. Increased freeze thaw cycle reduces structural life expectancy B. Increased temperatures leads to pavement and rail bucklingC. Increased rainfall/intensity leads to more flooding and associated bridge, culvert and roadway washoutsD. Increased wind force increase scour impact on bridgesE. All of the above and more

Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha.

US GHG Emissions by SectorClimate Change

Funding

•8,420,589 lane miles•46,630 miles of interstate•3,014,116 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) •599 million train miles traveled •599,766 road bridges •5,202 public use airports •360 commercial sea and river ports •7,700 public transit agencies• 53,353 million passenger miles on public transit •29,627 miles of inland waterways

In 2006, federal, state and local expenditures on transportation totaled $199.4 billion, including:

•$99.8 billion Highway •$44.1 billion Transit•$1.5 billion Rail •$41.2 billion Air •$10.9 billion Water •$91 million Pipeline

ARRA added an additional $48 billion in transportation spending

Should we raise revenue to maintain our current infrastructure?

A. YesB. No

How would you raise these funds?

The Future?

What are potential energy savings in transportation?

Increased Electrical Need to Electrify Current Fleet with Current Travel Behavior

Burning the last street car in downtown Burlington, Main St. Aug 4, 1929, Courtesy of Special Collections, Bailey Howe Library

“The Future Ain’t What it Use to Be”