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ClimateThailandChange

Climateand

CRISIS OR OPPORTUNITY:

ThailandChange

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................3

1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................61.1 CLIMATE CHANGE .................................................................. 61.2 CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS............... 61.3 PURPOSE OF REPORT ............................................................ 7

2. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THAILAND.......................8BOX 1 – THAILAND’S RECENT PROLONGED DROUGHT............. 11

3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND ......................133.1 WATER RESOURCES AND FRESH WATER ECOSYSTEMS .. 133.2 FOREST RESOURCES .......................................................... 153.3 BIODIVERSITY ..................................................................... 15BOX 2 – CLIMATE CHANGE HOTSPOTS IN THAILAND ............... 14BOX 3 – THAILAND’S CORAL BLEACHING EPISODES ............... 163.4 COASTAL RESOURCES, OCEAN AND FISHERIES .............. 173.5 FOOD SECURITY .................................................................. 173.6 HEALTH................................................................................ 193.7 SETTLEMENTS ..................................................................... 193.8 INSURANCE ......................................................................... 20

4. THAILAND AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONVENTION .........21

5. CALL TO ACTION .....................................................................22

REFERENCES ................................................. BACK COVER INSIDE

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................. BACK COVER INSIDE

CONTENTS

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Climate change, global warming and the greenhouse effect refer

to the same global environmental problem. It will have significant

impacts on every nation on the planet. Increasing climate-related

catastrophes such as drought, floods, storm surges, heat waves and

wild fires were frequently experienced by many countries during the

past few decades. These events may be largely attributed to climate

change and could possibly lead to irreversible changes in the Earth’s

ecosystems. It is thus important to understand several aspects of cli-

mate change in order to minimize its causes and effects and cope

with its impacts. Sustainable development and a self-sufficient

economy can be achieved. This report gathers the information from

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment

together with studies conducted in Thailand in order to enhance the

understanding and awareness of climate change impacts of which is

not as high among the local people.

ExecutiveSummary

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CAUSES OF CLIMATECHANGE

Increasing greenhouse gases in theatmosphere is the main cause of climatechange. Greenhouse gases include carbondioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Thecombustion of fossi l fuels along withdeforestation emit massive amounts ofcarbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Ricecultivation, live stock production and wastetreatment release methane. Using nitrogenfertilizer emits nitrous oxide. In addition, fewhydrocarbons that substitute ozone depletingsubstances such as CFC are also potentgreenhouse gases. These gases absorb solarheat energy and cause the warming of theatmosphere and the Earth’s surface. It isestimated that greenhouse gases will bedouble its present concentration by the endof this century.

CLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) assessment reveals that meanglobal temperatures will increase about 1.4 -5.8 oC and that sea level would rise by 0.09-0.88 meters by the end of this century. Thehigher magnitude of change reflects theresult of business-as-usual policies concerningintensive use of fossil fuels along with the lackof concerted global cooperation.

Few General Circulation Models (GCM) haveshown that the average temperature inThailand may increase from 21.5-27.5 to 25-32 oC, while the amount of rain fall changesspatially. A single Regional Climate Model wasused to construct climate change scenariosof the Mekong river basin, which includesThailand and neighboring countries.

EVIDENCES OF CLIMATECHANGE

Instrumental records show that the globalmean surface temperature has increased by0.6 oC during the past century. Thinnermountainous glaciers and the breaking ofpolar sea-ice have been observed. Inaddition, poleward shifts and upward shift inthe elevation of plants, insects, birds and fishhave been observed. Earlier plant flowering,bird migration, breeding season changes andthe emergence of insects has occurred in theNorthern Hemisphere.

IMPACT OF CLIMATECHANGE

The IPCC has stated clearly thatdeveloping countries will be affected hardestby climate change. Climate change willhave tremendous impacts on naturalresources and the environment by whichdevelopment depends upon. The IPCCreveals that climate related catastrophesduring the past four decades (1950-1992)have increased about five fold from the firstto the last decade, and damages toeconomies increased 10 fold during the sameperiod. These changes include:

Water resources:Thailand has twenty five watersheds which

store and supply water for domestic,agricultural and industrial use as well as forregeneration of wildlife in natural ecosystems.Changes in rainfall patterns and thefrequency and intensity of rainfall due toclimate change can affect the quantity andquality of water resources from the watershedareas down to the estuaries. Prolongeddroughts and intense floods have frequentlyoccurred, damaging vast tracts of agricultureareas and the commercial sector. During theperiod 1991-2000, damage to agriculturalareas caused by drought, floods and stormscost up to fifty billion Thai Baht. During 2004-2005, the industrial estates of the easternseaboard experienced severe shortage ofwater due to unprecedented prolongeddrought.

Food SecurityThailand exports food to the world market.

The country is the top global rice exporter.Rice is not only a main product of Thailandbut is also central to the culture of the Thaipeople. Rain-fed agriculture is a commonpractice among the rural Thai. Floods, heatwaves and shortage of water as a result ofclimate change greatly diminishesagricultural production, which consequentlyaffects social practices and economic well-being of the majority of the people.

Coastal areas, oceans and fisheriesThailand’s coastl ine is about 2,600

kilometers, which is economically importantin terms of commerce, recreation andtourism. More importantly, it provides habitatsfor numerous coastal flora and marine faunathat live in mangrove and other coastalecosystems. Coastal areas are presentlyunder threat due to severe erosion and sea-water encroachment in several areas. Sea-

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level rise may cause the extinction of coastalspecies and ecosystems that are unable toshift upland due to human infrastructures. Inaddition, more intense storm surges maydamage commercial and recreational areas.Ocean currents and the chemicalcomposition of sea water are also expectedto change and affect marine ecosystems andfisheries. Coral bleaching world wideincluding Thailand is largely related to thewarming of sea water.

Forest and biodiversityIt is expected that climate change may

cause irreversible changes amongecosystems along with the extinction of manyspecies. Thai forests consist of tropical rainforests and deciduous forests. The latter areunder the influence of wet and dry cycles ofa monsoon climate. The areas are habitatsof numerous diverse species. Preliminary Thaistudies on spatial distribution of forestecosystems under climate change, based onone GCM, show that about thirty-two nationalparks and wild life sanctuaries are at risk dueto climate change. Forests in these areas maychange from one type to another and canconsequently create changes in speciescomposition.

HealthIncreased average temperatures,

precipitation patterns, storms, floods,droughts and more hot days and heat waveshave direct and indirect impacts on health.

These involve, for example, heat stress,contagious diseases due to lack of cleanwater, poor hygiene during and after thecatastrophes, which increase the spread ofcases of food and water-borne diseases.Moreover, changes in habitats of insects andpests, which carry diseases such asmosquitoes, increase the risk of outbreaks ofmalaria and dengue fever. In urban areas,higher temperatures due to global warmingmay impose additional impacts on the healthof city dwellers who are already exposed toair pollution.

Time to take ActionEvidence of climate change is becoming

more and more clear. Millions of human livesand the economic development ofdeveloping countries such as Thailand areincreasingly threatened by climate-relatedcatastrophes, heat waves, more intensedroughts, floods and storm surges. These areonly the warning signals of Mother Nature asshe responds to human interference withclimatic systems. Because of the complexityof the climate system and the size of theconsequent impacts, the action required tosolve the problem needs the continuouscooperation of all sectors, especially amongdeveloping countries which lag far behind inknowledge, technology and the adaptationcapabilities of their institutions. The contextof climate change is less known in Thailand. Itis necessary to increase the informationavailable to the public regarding the impactsof climate change. Action that can andshould be taken for adaptation andmitigation of climate change cannot bedelayed.

It is strategic for Thailand to prepare foradaptation and to undertake mitigationmeasures that work hand in hand with thecountry’s development goals. Developingcountries are more vulnerable to changingclimates.

Adaptation requires long term studies ofclimate change impacts on natural resourcessuch as water, forests, biodiversity coastalareas, health as well as food production andsocioeconomic activities. It is a win-winstrategy. Action taken to reduce the causeof climate change benefits the world.Reducing greenhouse gas emissions mustprioritize mitigation measures in the energysector, which includes less dependence onfossil fuels and moving increasingly towardsrenewable energy alternatives as well asmore efficient energy utilization.

Evidence ofclimate changeis becomingmore and moreclear. Millions ofhuman lives andthe economicdevelopment ofdevelopingcountries such asThailand areincreasinglythreatened byclimate-relatedcatastrophes,heat waves,more intensedroughts, floodsand storm surges.These are onlythe warningsignals of MotherNature as sheresponds tohuman interfer-ence with cli-matic systems.

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1INTRODUCTION

1.1 Climate Change, Global warmingand the Greenhouse effect

Climate change, also known as globalwarming and the greenhouse effect, iscaused by man-made or anthropogenicemissions of greenhouse gases. Increasinggreenhouse gases in the atmosphere leadsto an increase in the mean globaltemperature with consequent changes inweather patterns and climate elements suchas precipitation, and wind circulation,atmospheric pressure and ocean circulation.

1.2 Greenhouse gases, Climate Changeand its impacts

Greenhouses gases include carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide. They are naturallyoccurring in the atmosphere in smallquantities, absorbing and preventing heatenergy from radiating out. They keep theEarth warm and habitable. The burning offossil fuels and deforestation releases massiveamounts of carbon dioxide, the maingreenhouse gas. Rice cultivation andlivestock production release methane andthe intensive use of nitrogen fertilizer causesincreasing nitrous oxide levels in theatmosphere. Consequently, more heat istrapped which causes the warming of theworld.

Figure 1.

Greenhouse effect

Figure 2.

Increasingconcentration ofgreen house gases inthe atmosphere(from IPCC 2001)

It is estimated that the concentration ofgreenhouse gases will be double from itspresent concentration by the end of thiscentury (Figure 2). The Earth’s atmospherenever reached this amount during the past400,000 years (Figure 3) (IPCC 2001).

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Figure 3.

Atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentration frompast to present andfuture scenario(IPCC 2001)

More hot days & heat waves Increasing* Serious illness and death* Heat stress in livestock & wildlife* Crop damages

More intense precipitation events Increasing* Flood, landslide, mudslide damage* Soil erosion* Disaster relief

Increased tropical cyclones Increasing:* Risk to human life* Infectious disease epidemics* Damage to coastal ecosystems

Intensified droughts and floods associated Decreasing:with El Ninio events * Agriculture and range productivity

* Hydro-power potentialIncreased Asian summer monsoon * Increased flood and drought magnitude andprecipitation variability damages in Asia & temperate lands

EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM PROJECTED CHANGES INEXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS RELATED TO CLIMATECHANGE (IPCC, 2001)

Projected changes during 21st century Examples of impact

1.3 Purpose of Report

This report aims to present the causes andeffects of climate change in a simple way bygathering information from IPCC ThirdAssessment Report (IPCC, 2001) andincorporating this with available local studies.The enhancement of the understanding ofThais and people in the Southeast Asianregion regarding climate change issues is ofprimary consideration..

From IPCC 2001

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2CLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS FOR

THAILAND

2.1 Climate Change scenarios

Knowing future climate change is necessaryto understand its impacts and to prepare fornecessary adaptation.

GCMsGeneral Circulation Models (GCMs) have

been used to construct future climatechange scenarios. GCMs are mathematicalmodels based on physical laws that simulateheat exchange among the maincomponents of the Earth’s climatic systems.The model is complicated and requires sub-models of extensive information of the Earth’sclimates. Some institutes in developedcountries possess GCMs. Climate changescenarios from these models vary dependingon the input data, the hypotheses, and theassumptions used. Therefore, it is important toutilize a number of GCMs to explore andevaluate the trends in future climate changesand to study the impacts and the adaptationsthat need to be made.

It is estimated that average globaltemperatures will increase between 1.4 and5.8 oC, and sea levels will rise at least 0.09meters and up to 0.88 meters because of themelting of polar ice and the thermalexpansion of ocean waters (IPCC, 2001). Theconsequences of these changes aretremendous and affect precipitationpatterns, increasing maximum and minimumtemperatures as well as causing droughts and

floods. These in turn will impact upon theequilibrium of natural ecosystems, foodproduction, health and other systems, whichfinally have a negative effect on thesocioeconomic development of the country.

RCMsGCMs are global models, which work on

a large spatial scale. Downscaling the outputto a smaller country’s area may not captureenough information to carry on impactstudies. Regional Climate Models (RCMs)have been developed to construct climaticchange scenarios for smaller areas of theregions, which are more appropriate forimpact studies. However, developingcountries have limited access to GCMs andRCMs because of inadequate technicalexperts and funding.

In 1997 Thailand selected three GCMs todevelop climate change scenarios to studythe impact of climate change on forestdistribution. One RCM was used to constructa climate change scenario for the MaeKhong river basin. It is necessary to use at leastthree more RCMs to construct climatechange scenarios for studying the effects offuture climate change and the adaptationsneeded.

Figure 4

Temperaturescenarios(IPCC 2001

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2.2 Current climate

Measuring and recording climaticparameters in real time is necessary forweather forecasting of natural disasters andclimate related catastrophes. It is also asource of input data needed to simulateclimate change scenarios. The climate is alarge continuous system; changes in oneplace affect others. The World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO) recommends a distanceof 150 km between each climate station forefficient data uses. Thailand has 90 climatestations that meet WMO standards. Thecountry needs to establish a network ofclimate stations to strengthen weatherforecasting capabilities and to use forassessing climate change scenarios.

2.3 Paleoclimate

Paleoclimate is the study of ancient climaticpatterns, which can be traced by tree rings,the pollen deposited in sediments and the airbubbles trapped in glaciers that have notmelted for several thousand years as in theAntarctic. Paleoclimatic data providesinformation about the Earth’s climate bycenturies and millennia before the present.This information is necessary for the validationof climate models used to construct scenariosof future climatic change. Climate modelsthat accurately simulate past climates wouldbe used to construct climate changescenarios that are close to real events.

Figure 5

Sea level risescenarios(IPCC 2001)

It is estimatedthat averageglobal tem-peratures willincrease be-tween 1.4 and5.8 oC, andsea levels willrise at least0.09 metersand up to 0.88meters be-cause of themelting ofpolar ice andthe thermalexpansion ofocean waters(IPCC, 2001).

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2.4 Thailand’s Climate change scenarios

Three GCMs were chosen to constructprecipitation and temperature scenarios overThailand (TEI, 1999). The three GCMs used inthe study were UK 89, UKMO and GISS asshown in Figure 6-9. Every model shows theincrease in average temperature from 21.5-27.5oC to 25-32oC approximately (Figure 6).The temperature increases by 2.5oC in thenortheast region and by 3-3.5oC in the central,north, and west regions (Figure 8). The amountof rainfall is dispersed differently from the baseyear, as shown in Figure 7. The amount ofrainfall in the northeast is constant while itincreases by 40% in the south. The amount ofrainfall in other parts of the country increasesby 20% (Figure 9).

Figure 7

The results from 3GCMs: UK 89,UKMO and GISScomparing patternsof rainfalls annually.

Source: TEI, 1999

Figure 8

Showing the increasein temperature inThailand. The resultsfrom UK89

Source: TEI, 1999

Figure 6

The results from 3GCMs: UK 89,UKMO and GISSshowing an increasein temperatureSource: TEI, 1999

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From 2004 to 2005, Thailand was caught inthe grip of a catastrophic drought.

Thailand’s rice yield in 2005 “is expected tofall below 11 percent to 14 percent fromlast year’s harvests while sugar caneproduction is also expected to dropdrastically.”

One of the main causes of the currentprolonged drought in Thailand can beattributed to global warming

During the same period the EasternSeaboard of Thailand, which is primeindustrial estates that include the largestpetrochemical industry in the country,faced severe water shortage. Water levelsin the main reservoirs dropped belowminimum storage levels. Industries andresidences in the region were requested totake long-term measures to cope withwater shortages and reduce waterconsumption. According to the IrrigationDepartment, the region has experiencedtwo consecutive dry years and droughts

instead of alternating with a wet yearthat usually refills the reservoirs withenough supply of water to meet thedemand of the following year.

Despite a massive government effort todivert water to replenish the main sourcesof water supplies in the region inparticular in the Map Ta Phut area,several manufacturers have adjustedtheir production plans in order to survivethe dry spell. It is the first time in over 20years that the industrial estate has beenfaced with such a serious water crisis.

To help ease the water shortage, the Thaicabinet approved a large budget forprojects, including water diversionbetween existing reservoirs and fromrivers in the area to the reservoirs. Thegovernment plan has placed localcommunities and farmers in a fightingmood to stop the government from“stealing” their water to feed the region’swater-starved industrial sector.

Recent Prolonged drought in Thailand

Figure 9

Altered rainfallpatterns, the resultsfrom UK89

Source: TEI, 1999

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Average temperature and amount ofrainfall recorded in Thailand

According to the MeteorologicalDepartment of Thailand, there has been adecrease in rainfall trends in Thailand and anincrease in maximum and minimumtemperature during 1951-2002 (B.E. 2494-2545), as shown in Figure 10, 11 and 12.

Figure 10

A decreasing trend inamount of annualrainfall in Thailandduring 2494-2545B.E.

Source: ChamnongKeawchada ,B.E. 2546

Figure 11

Increasing trend inThailandís averageannual maximumtemperature during2494-2545 B.E.

Source: ChamnongKeawchada, B.E. 2546

Figure 12

Increasing trend inThailand’s averageannual minimumtemperature during2494-2545 B.E.

Source: ChamnongKeawchada, B.E. 2546

Rainfall annual trend in Thailand

Am

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Average annual maximum temperature trendin Thailand

B.E.

B.E.

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Average annual minimum temperature trendin Thailand

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IMPACTS OFCLIMATE CHANGE IN

THAILAND

3.1 Water Resources and fresh waterecosystems

The increase in solar radiation and meanglobal surface temperatures could alter theamount of precipitation andevapotranspiration, leading to changes inriver flows, ground water recharge,catchments, soil moisture, water temperature,and water quality. Alteration in waterresources and water ecosystem could resultin changes in land uses and vice versa. All ofthese prospects would eventually changewater balance in regional watershed areas.Annual stream flow, for instance, coulddecrease as much as 21-31% in some areasof the world (Moore, M.V. et al., 1997).

Most importantly, there would be changes inprecipitation patterns. Despite the sameamount of rain measured, the precipitationpatterns, rainfall frequency and intensity, aswell as the situation could be widely distinctin two places, as shown in Figure 13.

Thailand is an agricultural country thatdepends largely on natural water resourcesand unfortunately global climate change hasserious implications upon these waterresources. This could cause prolongeddroughts, intense flooding and storm surgesto occur more frequently. The supplies fromfresh water reservoirs, rivers and streams areexpected to change.

Thailand has 25 watersheds, which store rainwater and supply fresh water. A study onclimate change in the Mekong river basin,which included the Chee watershed area in

Figure 13

Change in

precipitation pattern

Source: Trenberth,

2003

3 northeastern Thailand, was performed usingone Regional Climate Scenario. There is anurgent need to study changes in the rainfallpattern in all the watershed areas by usingmore than three climate change scenarios.The results from these studies will be useful toincorporate in the government’s watermanagement plans to maximize theirefficiency, and to ensure future wateravailability.

Climate change would also affect thebalance of fresh water ecosystems, causingchanges in biogeochemical andhydrological cycles. The impacts will bedifferent depending on previous settings ofthe watershed areas. Thailand has yet toinvestigate its regional areas to be able toindicate the impacts likely to occur in variouslocalities.

The impacts of climate change on fresh waterecosystem are likely to be more pronouncedin the littoral zones of lakes than the pelagiczones. Emergent vegetation such as aquaticmacrophytes will benefit from higher CO2

concentration while high temperatures andrich nutrients in littoral sediments result in lushgrowth. (Kankaala et al., 1996).

Small lakes and reservoirs could fluctuaterapidly in response to changes in precipitationand evapotranspiration. Where water levelsdecline, particularly in shallow lakes andreservoirs, surrounding wetlands woulddecrease in area causing the absence ofsome aquatic vegetation. As a result, thiscauses changed habitats for aquatic biota,reduction of productivity, and even extinctionof fish and invertebrate species that aredependent on these types of habitats.

Decreasing lake volumes and areas couldalso result in increased loading of nutrients(nitrogen, phosphorus, and others) fromcatchments per unit lake area or volume. Thiscould correspond to increasedeutrophication, the phenomenon that resultsin high production of aquatic biomass,decreasing species diversity, deterioration ofoxygen conditions, and adverse effects onwater quality. In regions where most drinkingwater comes from sur face sources,decreasing lake volumes and lower waterquality may cause serious problems forhuman use.

Presently, there are few studies in Thailandwhich use mathematical models to assessphysical property of water resource: water

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National parks and wildlife sanctu-aries expected to be affected byclimate change (from UK 89 Model)

1. Doi Suthep - Pui2. Doi Khun Tan3. Mai Yom4. Srisatchanalai5. Phu Rua6. Ramkumhaeng7. Phu Kardueng8. Phu Kao - Phu Pankum9. Phu Jong - Nayor10. Kaeng Tana11. Chalermrattanagosin12. Kitchagoot13. Laem Son14. Kao Sok15. Kao Luang16. Kao Panombenja17. Chieng Dao18. Doi Pameung19. Doi Leung20. Phu Mieng - Phu Tong21. Phu Leung22. Phu Wa23. Oom Pang24. Tung Yai Naraesuan25. Panom Dong Rak26. Yod Dome27. Kao Keaw - Kao Chomphu28. Kao Soidao29. Krommaleuang Choomporn30. Klong Nak31. Klong Saeng32. Klong Phaya

National parks and wildlife sanctuaries that are situated in climate change hot spots

Source: Boonpragob, Unpublished

Figure 14

Climate change hotspots in Thailandaccording to UK 89showing nationalparks and wildlifesanctuaries at risk

Source:Boonpragob,unpublished

Climate Change Hot Spots in ThailandClimate change hot spots are the areas thatwill be severely impacted from climatechange due to the extreme altering of tem-peratures and amount of rainfall. The ecosys-tems within the areas may change their types.Even as information related to climatechange hot spot was identified. The impact,vulnerability and adaptation to climatechange will be focused in these areas.

Impacts of climate change on nationalparks and wildlife sanctuaries

The preservation of natural habitat playsa crucial role in species conservation. In frag-mented habitats due to roads and urban ex-pansions, species in stress would be incapableof moving into new habitats, cooler areas upnorth will be affected by global warming. Thespecies that cannot adapt to the new con-ditions may be threatened with extinction.

Of the national parks and wildlife sanctuariesdistributed all over Thailand, 32 are situatedin climate change hotspots.

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flow conditions, element dispersion, sedimenttransfer and accumulation, for instance, toplan for water resource management.However, studies on biological diversity andthe impacts of climate change on waterresources and fresh water ecosystems usingmathematical models need to be included.

3.2 Forest Resources

Plant communities are highly sensitive tochanges in climate conditions, increase inCO2 concentration, amount of rainfall, lightintensity and exposure period; all impact theirgrowth and development. Climate change,preceding forest fires, disease and pestoutbreaks, could tremendously affect timberproduction and the existence of forests. Forinstance, after a severe drought in Panamain 1983, the loss of plant life in a 50 hectareecological permanent plot in Barro ColoradoIsland (BCI) was as high as 50%, compared tonormal years. (Condit et al. 1996, Hubbell andFoster 1983 cited from SarayutBunyavetcheewin B.E. 2545). It is expectedthat unrestrained climate change will causeirreversible changes in forest ecosystems

Furthermore, changes in vegetation cover willhave a major feedback on the climate systemthrough evapotranspiration, which affects thewater and carbon cycles. The interaction ofthe terrestrial carbon cycle and the climaticprocesses has been simulated by DynamicGlobal Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Thesemathematical models incorporate intensivevegetation data into the climate changescenarios generated by GCMs. Thus, theimpact of climate change on forestproduction and wild life can be assessed. It isimportant to note that the existing modelshave been developed for temperate regions,whereas the environment in tropical regionsis different. Climate-vegetation models thatare appropriate for local conditions of thetropical regions need to be developed.

3.3 Biodiversity

The Indo-Burma region, including Thailand, isidentified as a biological hot spot as it is richin biodiversity while the management requiresmore attention (Myers et.al, 2000). Given thesynergistic threats of climate change,however, deforestation, forest encroachmentand habitat fragmentation would intensify theproblem.

There are rich and diverse flora and fauna intropical rain forests, such as the forests in

Thailand, compared to other forest types. Tensquare kilometers could contain up to 750species of trees and 1500 species of higherplants, numbers higher than the total tree andplant diversity of North America (RaintreeNutrition, Inc., 1996). These plants haveprospect novel products especially forpharmaceutical uses . For example, 70% ofthe plants that could fight against cancergrow in tropical rain forests, and yet less than1% of this figure has been systematicallystudied. Deforestation is also limiting humanchances in fighting against diseases. Some ofthe plants that could have been usedbecame extinct before research and studieswere performed.

Ecosystems tend to migrate up in elevationor northward in response to global warming.This phenomenon is already observed on thesummits of a few mountainous areas. Plantsand animals that are unable to move upwardand are incapable of adapting to the warmerclimates are threatened with extinction. Theimpact and adaptation of biologicalresources can be observed by: 1) fieldobservations of species distribution on long-term permanent plots along altitudinal andlatitudinal gradients. 2) Studies of speciesresponse in controlled environments underclimate change conditions. 3) Modelecosystems changes under climate changescenarios to predict the spatial distribution ofecosystems.

Most existing studies on biodiversity coverinventories of species without incorporatingclimatic factors. A few long-term permanentplots with species inventories are ongoing.Long-term permanent plots alongenvironmental gradients like mountain slopes,to monitor changes in climatic factors andspecies migration are necessary for theapplication of appropriate measures toconserve biodiversity.

Permanent plots are used to study forestdynamics in Thailand (SarayutBunyavetcheewin B.E. 2545). The examplesare the dry evergreen forest at Huay KhaKhaeng Wildlife Sanctuary (50 hectares), aLower Montane forest founded at DoiIndranon National Park (15 hectares), andmixed deciduous and dry dipterocarp forestsat Huay Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary (100hectares each) (Sarayut BunyavetcheewinB.E. 2545). Furthermore, in 1998-2001, In-situConservation of Forest Genetics Resources inThailand was founded under the responsibilityof the Royal Forest Department (prior to the

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Coral bleaching occurred in Thailand forthe first time in 1979 but all the

affected corals recovered. As reported byDr. Suraphol Sudara, a well-respectedmarine scientist from ChulalongkornUniversity in Thailand and his team, warmwater temperatures in April 1998 causedwidespread coral bleaching in the Gulf ofThailand from Narathivat province (South)and Trat province (far east), up to Chonburiprovince (the inner part of the Gulf). Butthere was no bleaching on the other side inthe Andaman Sea. Water temperatures inthe Gulf increased from the normal of 28-29oC to above 32oC, such that on Ko Samuiwas 35oC.

It was first noticed in the tourist centres ofChumphon and Surat Thani. Then bleachingspread north to reefs in the inner part of theGulf (Koh Samet, off Samaesan) and offPattaya. In some places, bleaching hasaffected 100% of Acropora, 80% ofPocillopora damicornis, and about 60 to70% of massive Porites, especially in shallowwater. Around Chumphon (Ko Kai, KoSamet and Ko Tao), 30-50 % of coral isbleached. Around Sichang Island (innerpart of the Gulf) and Mun Islands (Rayong),the impact was 50-60% of coral beingbleached, with mortality of about half thoseaffected. This is the first report ofwidespread bleaching in the Gulf ofThailand. (Australian Institute of MarineScience : Status of Coral Reef of the World1998)

The severe bleaching in the Andaman Seawas reported off Phuket, Phangnga andKrabi in the summer of 1991. Coralbleaching can occur when the watertemperature rises by as little as 1oC abovethe average temperature of the warmestmonth of the year for several weeks, but in1991 the water temperature was 1 to 3oChigher than normal and remained so fortwo-and-a-half months.

In fact 1998 proved to be a disastrous yearfor coral reefs all over the world. Apart fromThailand, some 32 countries in the Pacificand Indian oceans, the Mediterranean and

Thailland’sCoral BleachingEpisodes

the Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Mexicoand the Red Sea suffered the mostextensive and severe bleaching andsubsequent loss of coral in modern times.

In 2005 Anchalee Chankong, a researcherfrom the Marine and Coastal Resourcesresearch centre in Chumphon, reportedthat many shallow water reefs on the Gulfof Thailand, such as those in the waters offSurat Thani and Chumphon provinces, arealso suffering from bleaching.

Professors Richard P. Dunne and Barbara E.Brown, visiting researchers from theDepartment of Marine Science and CoastalManagement at the University ofNewcastle-upon-Tyne in England, predictedbleaching of coral in Phuket’s waters in2005, having witnessed weather conditionsin Phuket that contribute to coralbleaching. Both scientists have beenmonitoring coral reefs in the Andaman Seaover the last 26 years, and their studiesshowed that coral bleaching directlycorresponds to a rise in water temperatureand solar irradiance. (quoted from NalineeThongtham, Phuket Marine BiologicalCentre)

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Figure 15

Comparing pollenfertility of differentrice varieties inhigh temperature

Source: Sheehy,2002

production as well as ruin the protection ofthe coastal zones from waves and stormsurges.

It is expected that there will be an increase incoastal erosion, deterioration in naturalresources and a reduction in the number oftourists. Changes in ocean currents salinity,temperatures, wind directions, as well as thevertical circulation of ocean water will allaffect nutrients, the species composition andthe population dynamics of the oceanecosystems and fish production. Because ofits importance to the economy of the country,the impact of climate change on foodharvested from the ocean should receivemore attention.

Modeling sea-level rise to identify hot spotsalong Thailand’s coastline needs to beaccomplished by incorporating currentregional climate models to enhance theaccuracy and trends of the changes. Fromthese, adaptation measures to protectparticularly threatened ecosystem could bedeveloped.

3.5 Food security

Agricultural products share major incomeamong those exports from Thailand. However,crop productions are mostly from rain fedagriculture, which would become fluctuateddue to the influence of climate change.During 1991-2000 loss of crop yields relatedto climatic events such as droughts, floodsand storms amounted to over 50 billion Baht.It is predicted that climate relatedcatastrophes will increase and intensify underclimate change. This will cause reductions inagricultural production, and consequentlyretarded economic development andincreasing social problems.

reorganization of governmentaldepartments). The program selects the zonesthat are rich in biodiversity from conservationareas of all forest types nationwide, beingable to plan systematic studies on 15 forestzones-1-4 zones from each type of forest, of100-6.25 rai (16-1 ha) (Boonchum BoontaweeB.E. 2545).

Thailand’s forest distribution expected tochange from the impacts of climatechange

According to the first and the only studyon the impact of climate change on forestdistribution, a few GCMs, UK 89, UKMO andGISS, and Holdridge Life Zone Classificationof forest distribution based on climate wereemployed. The study revealed that, the forestsin Thailand will be changed under climatechange scenarios of doubling carbon dioxideconcentration of the atmosphere. Most ofthem will become increasingly arid(Boonpragob and Santisirisomboon, 1997).

3.4 Coastal Resources, Ocean andFisheries

Rising sea levels, high waves and severe stormsurges are the expected result of changingclimates. Thailand has about 2600 km ofcoastline. The economic value of thesenatural resources varies geographically.Coastal ecosystems would be expected toadapt naturally to rising sea levels bymigrating landward, but humandevelopment with its infrastructures, e.g.roads, are major obstacles for migration.Therefore, the deterioration of the naturalcoastal resources may occur. For example,mangroves, which are the nursery groundsand refuge of juvenile sea animals, areexpected to deteriorate. This would affect fish

RiceSatake & Yoshida (1978)

and Horie (1993)

Temperature

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Pollen is among the most sensitive plant partto changes in temperature. Increasingtemperatures for a short period during theflowering and pollination process greatlyreduces fertility of pollen, Different plantspecies react to temperature differently, forexample pollen of some rice species lost itsfertility in a temperature higher than 34 oC,whilst others can tolerate to heat up to 38oC(Figure 15). Exposed to high temperatures,even for short periods, sensitive rice would losetheir productivity by failing to fill the grain,while the plant still grow.

Extreme rainfall variability leads to decliningrice, corn and sugar cane productions(Teerasak B.E.2541,  ∂“∫—π«‘®—¬æ◊™‰√à, 2539).Furthermore, inundation in some areas couldlead to plant diseases and insect infestation(Benchaphun et al., 2002).

Crop yield responds to growing temperature,by which high production generally occur atthe optimum temperature range of 22-27 oC.Exceeding this range causes decline in plantproduction This has crucial implications ontropical crops, which normally grow at thehigh end of the optimum temperature,whereas temperate crops could benefit fromincreasing global temperatures. Tropical cropyields might decrease, and temperate yieldsmay increase (Figure 16).

The fact that different species have a uniquecapacity to endure heat means that it isessential to study individual species to findthose that can best accommodatethemselves to a changing climate.Furthermore, it is most important to conservegenes of wild species as they possesscharacteristics that can overcome stress andenemies.

On-going studies in Thailand on the impactof climate change on the Mekong river basinutil ize one regional climate modelincorporated with CERES crop model topredict the yields of a single variety ofeconomically important crops such as rice,corn, sugar cane and cassava. Other climatechange scenarios are necessary for suchstudies in order to apply appropriateadaptation strategies to minimize the impactof climate change.

Animal production in Thailand primarilydepends on grazing systems and mixedfarming systems, which depend on climaticconditions, precipitation, natural pasture, andleft overs from agriculture. Climate change

could have crucial impact on livestockproduction. Drought and flooding wouldeventually lead to shortage in food and newdisease outbreak. More importantly, most ofthe farmers in Thailand are small holders wholack understanding in the prospect of climatechange and would be very much affectedfrom the events.

Temperature and humidity are associatedwith livestock production. Different types ofanimals have varied Thermo Neutral Zone(TNZ), which is the range of temperatureconsidered comfortable for the animal(McDowell, 1972). For example, if the bovinehave to be in a temperature warmer thantheir TNZ, they would be under stress, leadingto changes in physiological processes thatimpede growth and reproductive system(Charnwit, 2539, Yousef, 1985).

In addition, high temperatures could alsoaffect the microbe in a bovine’s stomach andcause mutation. Epidemic diseases carried byflies, might increase in number with changesin climatic condition, and that weakens theanimals and their products, as well as theefficiency of vaccines.

In conclusion, livestock production coulddecline in changing climates due to heatstress, poorer food quality or diseaseoutbreaks related to climatic conditions. Theability of livestock producers to adapt theirherds to the physiological stresses associatedwith climate change is less known.Management to enhance understandingand to predict the future production of meatand dairy products under climate changeconditions are needed.

Figure 16

Influence oftemperature on cropyield.

Source: modifiedfrom Nobel, 2002

19

3.6 Health

Extreme temperature and heat waves havenegative effect on human health, especiallyin young and senior citizens and those whosuffer from respiration and cardiovasculardiseases. In the past, there have been manydeath caused by heat wave in urban areas.For example, the heat wave that struckChicago in June 1995 killed more than athousand people. Latest incidence of heatwaves in 2003 in Europe took a lot of lives,especially in France in which the temperaturewas as high as 40oC and had the death tollup to 12,000.

The harmful effects from heat waves areintensified by humidity, which is the case ofThailand as it is situated in a tropical zone.Perspiration could dissipate body heat.However, in highly humid conditionsorganisms will perspire less as the sweat cannot evaporate.

High temperature in urban areas canenhance the reaction rates of air pollutant,which are already detrimental. The pollutedgases irritate respiration systems and opticaltissues. In the long run, it causes chronicsymptoms on respiration system and allergies.

Vector-born diseases such as malaria anddengue fever may shift their outbreak zones.High temperature accelerates the life cyclein insects which are intermediate hosts andshortens the parasite incubation period. Theoutbreak would therefore occur morefrequently. Furthermore, the life style of Thaipeople increases the chance that peoplewould come in contact with the diseases.Despite its controllable situation, malaria hasbeen reported more frequently around Thaiborders.

Climate change could increase the risk offood and water-born diseases such asSalmonellosis, the disease that causesdiarrhea, if the amount of rainfalls increasesand leads to inundation of surface water andfloods. This case could be serious for areaswhere sanitation is below acceptablestandards.

Psychological stress could also be affectedby increasing incidences of natural disasters,changes in surroundings and settlements, andinsufficient natural sources such as fresh water.This could eventually lead to social problems,changes in social structure, and insecureliving.

Most of the operations concerningenvironmental health in Thailand emphasizeon disease density, epidemic conditions,protection and prevention. An understandingof epidemics in relation to climate change,and climate related factors receive lessattention. Management strategies should beprimarily performed using mathematicalmodels to predict disease outbreak, andother factors relating to climate so thatwarning systems and adaptation to climatechange could be established .

3.7 Settlements

The direct effects of climate change onhuman settlements are floods and landslidescaused by increases in rainfall intensity, risesin sea levels and coastal storm surges.Settlements along rivers and coastal zones areparticularly at risk. Damage to infrastructures,transportation systems, water supply systemsand public services are expected results fromchanging climate. Increased energydemands for infrastructure cooling anddamage repairs are also expected.

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Flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan areawas infrequent during the last ten yearsbecause flood prevention programs wereimplemented. However, floods in other urbanand rural areas have tended to increaseduring the past thirty years.

3.8 Insurance

Global economic losses related to extremeweather events have increased about tenfold during the past decades, from 3.9 billionUS$ in the 1950s to 40 billion US$ in the 1990s(all in 1999 US$, unadjusted for purchasingpower parity) (Figure 17), with approximatelyone-quarter of the losses occurring indeveloping countries. Between 1989 and 2002the economic losses related to floods, stormsand droughts in Thailand amounted to over70 billion Baht. In developed countries,weather related losses are insured by financialservice sectors. This minimizes the burden ongovernments as it reduces theircompensation payments, whilst the economyand the livelihood of the farmers remainintact. In developing countries, includingThailand, such programs rarely exist.Governments may subsidize part of theweather related losses.

The possibilities to develop insurance systems,or other appropriate strategies, tocompensate the loss of agriculture productscaused by extreme climate events should bedeveloped. Losses are expected to increaseas a result of changing climate.

Figure 17

Global cost ofextreme weatherevents

Global economiclosses related toextreme weatherevents have in-creased about tenfold during the pastdecades, from 3.9billion US$ in the1950s to 40 billion US$in the 1990s withapproximately one-quarter of the lossesoccurring in develop-ing countries. Be-tween 1989 and 2002the economic lossesrelated to floods,storms and droughtsin Thailandamounted to over 70billion Baht.

21

USA China India U.K. Canada Thailand

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4THAILAND AND THECLIMATE CHANGE

CONVENTION

Assessment of Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC)

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), supported by UNEP andWMO, consists of experts in areas of climatechange from every region. They areresponsible for assessing and distributingcurrent knowledge and appropriatetechnology in three areas including thescience of climate, impacts, adaptations andvulnerabil ity, and lastly mitigation ofgreenhouse gases. It also includes a TaskForce Group on greenhouse gas inventory.The IPCC philosophy is “Policy relevant, notpolicy descriptive”.

Political Framework and NegotiationUnited Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC), andConference of the Parties (COP)

The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) was initiatedduring the June 1992 Earth Summit in Rio deJaneiro, Brazil. It is a global commitment. Theultimate objective of the convention is tostabil ize GHG concentration in theatmosphere sufficient to allow ecosystem toadapt naturally, to ensure food production,and enable economic development toproceed in a sustainable manner. However,this commitment is obligated by Annex Ideveloped countries. Thailand belongs toNon- Annex countries, which includesdeveloping countries.

Thailand and climate change

Thailand ratified the UNFCCC without acommitment to reduce GHG emissions. Thecountry released only 0.6 % of the globalemission in 1990; per capita emission was alsobelow world average.

Figure 18

Comparingemission of carbondioxide (CO

2) in

Thailand and someother countries

Source: Thailand’sinformation fromTEI, 1997; Othercountriesinformation fromWorld ResourceInstitute - WRI,1994

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5CALL FOR ACTION

Evidence of climate change has becomemore and more obvious. Millions of lives areat risk and the economic development ofThailand is increasingly threatened byclimate-related catastrophes, heat waves,intense droughts, floods and storm surges.These are only the opening warning signalsof Mother Nature as she responds to humaninterference with the planet’s climate system.Because of the complexity of the climatesystem and the large consequential effectsof global warming, required actions to solveclimate change need the sustainedcooperation of all sectors of society,especially among developing countrieswhere awareness, knowledge, technologiesand institutional capacity is still lagging. Moreimportantly, the context of climate changeis less known in Thailand or perceived only asa portion of the story. It is important to raisethe awareness of the public regardingclimate change in order to impress theurgency of the issue. Mitigation andadaptation measures equal to the urgencyposed by climate change can not bedelayed.

Taking into account the globally agreedprinciple of common but differentiatedresponsibilities, Thailand must combine bothadaptation and mitigation efforts in order tominimize the impacts of and to cope with theconsequences of climate change.Developing countries are more vulnerable tochanging climate than those that areequipped with know-how, technology andinstitution. Adaptation requires the long- termstudy of the impacts of climate change onnatural resources such as water, forests,biodiversity, coastal and human health as wellas food production and socioeconomicactivities. This strategy is a win win option forThailand.

Actions taken to minimize the cause ofclimate change benefit the world. Reducinggreenhouse gas emissions must prioritizemitigation measures in the energy sector,which includes less dependence on fossil fuelsand moving increasingly towards renewableenergy alternatives as well as more efficientenergy utilization.

Actions taken to

minimize the cause

of climate change

benefit the world.

Reducing green-

house gas emis-

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mitigation mea-

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™“≠«‘∑¬å «—™√æÿ°°å. 2539.  √’√«‘∑¬“ ¿“æ·«¥≈âÕ¡¢Õß —µ«å‡≈’È¬ß„π‡¢µ√âÕπ. ¿“§«‘™“ —µ«∫“≈ §≥–‡°…µ√ ¡À“«‘∑¬“≈—¬‡°…µ√»“ µ√å °√ÿ߇∑æœ, 347.∏’√»—°¥‘Ï ¡“πÿæ’√æ—π∏å, ¥“«√ÿàß §ß‡∑’¬π, ®“√ÿ«√√≥ ¡—Ëπ§ß, ‰™¬¬» ‡æ™√∫Ÿ√≥‘π, ‡ “«√’ µ—ß °ÿ≈ ·≈–摇™…∞ °√ÿ¥≈Õ¬¡“. 2541. °“√‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫≈Ÿ°º ¡¢Õß

 “¬æ—π∏ÿå¢â“«‚æ¥∑π·≈âß°—∫æ—π∏ÿå∑¥ Õ∫. „π: √“¬ß“πº≈ß“π«‘®—¬ª√–®”ªï 2541. »Ÿπ¬å«‘®—¬æ◊™‰√àπ§√ «√√§å  ∂“∫—π«‘®—¬æ◊™‰√à °√¡«‘™“°“√‡°…µ√. 111-149.∫ÿ≠™ÿ¡ ∫ÿ≠∑«’. 2545. ·ª≈ß∑¥≈Õß∂“«√‡æ◊ËÕ°“√»÷°…“«‘®—¬¥â“π𑇫»«‘∑¬“ªÉ“‰¡â ¢Õß°√¡ªÉ“‰¡â. 51- 61, »Ÿπ¬å™’««‘∑¬“‡™‘ßÕπÿ√—°…å∏√√¡™“µ‘,

√“¬ß“π°“√ª√–™ÿ¡‡√◊ËÕß·ª≈ß»÷°…“√–∫∫𑇫»√–¬–¬“« (LTERS)  ”À√—∫µ‘¥µ“¡µ√«® Õ∫√–∫∫𑇫» (Long Term Ecological Research Sites (LTERS) forEcosystem Monitoring), 18 情¿“§¡ 2545, ¡À“«‘∑¬“≈—¬‡°…µ√»“ µ√å °√ÿ߇∑æ¡À“π§√.

 ∂“∫—π«‘®—¬æ◊™‰√à. 2539. °“√ª≈Ÿ°æ◊™‰√à.  ∂“∫—π«‘®—¬æ◊™‰√à °√¡«‘™“°“√‡°…µ√, 288. √“¬ÿ∑∏ ∫ÿ≥¬–‡«™™’«‘π. 2545. «—µ∂ÿª√– ß§å·≈–§«“¡°â“«Àπâ“ß“π«‘®—¬¢Õß·ª≈ßæ≈«—µ√ªÉ“‰¡â¢π“¥„À≠à (FDPs). 63›74. »Ÿπ¬å™’««‘∑¬“‡™‘ßÕπÿ√—°…å∏√√¡™“µ‘,

√“¬ß“π°“√ª√–™ÿ¡‡√◊ËÕß·ª≈ß»÷°…“√–∫∫𑇫»√–¬–¬“« (LTERS)  ”À√—∫µ‘¥µ“¡µ√«® Õ∫√–∫∫𑇫» (Long Term Ecological Research Sites (LTERS)for Ecosystem Monitoring), 18 情¿“§¡ 2545, ¡À“«‘∑¬“≈—¬‡°…µ√»“ µ√å °√ÿ߇∑æ¡À“π§√.

 √“¬ÿ∑∏ ∫ÿ≥¬–‡«™™’«‘π. 2545. «—µ∂ÿª√– ß§å·≈–§«“¡°â“«Àπâ“ß“π«‘®—¬¢Õß·ª≈ßæ≈«—µ√ªÉ“‰¡â¢π“¥„À≠à (FDPs). 63›74. »Ÿπ¬å™’««‘∑¬“‡™‘ßÕπÿ√—°…å∏√√¡™“µ‘,√“¬ß“π°“√ª√–™ÿ¡‡√◊ËÕß·ª≈ß»÷°…“√–∫∫𑇫»√–¬–¬“« (LTERS)  ”À√—∫µ‘¥µ“¡µ√«® Õ∫√–∫∫𑇫» (Long Term Ecological Research Sites (LTERS)for Ecosystem Monitoring), 18 情¿“§¡ 2545, ¡À“«‘∑¬“≈—¬‡°…µ√»“ µ√å °√ÿ߇∑æ¡À“π§√.

Benchaphun, S. E., P. Gypmantairi and K. Thong-Ngam. 2002. Prioritization of maize research and development in Thailand. Paper presentedin the Fifth Annual Workshop of the Asian Maize Social Science Working Group, held at the Rama Gardens Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand,August 1-4, 2002.

Boonprakob, K. and J. Santisirisomboon. 1996. Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change. Water, Air, andSoil Pollution 92: 107-117.

Condit, R., Hubbell S.P. and Foster R.B. 1996. Changes in a tropical forest with a shifting climate: results from a 50 ha permanent cencus plotin Panama. Journal of Tropical Ecology 12: 231-256.

Hubbell, S.P. and Foster, R.B. 1983. Diversity of canopy trees in neotropical forest and implications for conservation. In Sutton S.L., Whitmore T.C.and Chadwick A.C. (Eds.). Tropical Rain Forest Ecology and Management. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford, pp. 25-41.

IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Inter GovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, [R.T. Watson and Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 184 pp.

Kankaala, P., L. Arvola, T.Tulonen and A. Ojala. 1996. Carbon budget for the pelagic food web of the euphotic zone in a boreal lakeCan. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 53, 1663-1674.

McDowell, R. E. 1972. Improvement of Livestock Production in Warm Climate. W. H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco. NRC. 1988. NutrientRequirement of Beef Cattle. 6th ed., Nat. Acad. Sci., Washington, DC. 158 p.

Myers N., R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. da Fonseca G. A. B. Mittermeier and J. Kent. 2000. Biodiversity hotspot for conservation priorities. Nature, 403,853-858.

Nobel, I. 2002. Carbon Cycle. Presentation on Climate Change and Rural Prosperity. Nairubi. 24 April 2002.Raintree Nutrition, Inc. 1996. Rainforest Facts. Available from: http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htmSheehy, J. 2002. Rice and Climate Change. Presentation on Climate Change Rural Prosperity. Nairubi. 24 April 2002.Thailand Environment Institute. 1997. Thailandûs National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990. A Report submitted to the Ministry of Science

Technology and Environment, Thailand.Thailand Environment Institute. 1999. Thailandûs Country Study on Climate Change, 1990. A Report submitted to the Ministry of Science

Technology and Environment, Thailand.Trenberth, K. E. 2003. The Global Hydrological cycle: How Should Precipitation Change as Climate Changes?. A Presentation on Scoping

Meeting of IPCC, WGI, Forth Assessment Report (AR4). Potsdam. Germany. 1 August 2003.World Resource Institute. 1994. Publications. Dataset. Available at: http://www.wri.orgYousef, M. K. 1985. Stress Physiology in Livestock. Vol. 2. CRC Press Inc., Boca Raton, Florida, 217.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe authors wish to thank the invaluable support of Greenpeace Southeast Asia campaignersTara Buakamsri and Kittikun Kittiaram for making this project possible along with Ms. Ua-phanChamnan-ua for overseeing the lay-out and publication of this report.

Kansri Boonprakrob, Ph.D.Sattara HattiratApril 2006

REFERENCES

Climateand

CRISIS OR OPPORTUNITY:

ThailandChange

Front Cover Photo: Drought in Thailand © Greenpeace/Sataporn ThongmaFront Cover Photo(inside): Coral Bleaching near Phuket © Nalinee Thongtham

24Climate

and

CRISIS OR OPPORTUNITY:

ThailandChange

GREENPEACE SOUTHEAST ASIA

Greenpeace is aglobal organizationthat uses non-violentdirect action totackle the mostcrucial threats to ourplanet’s biodiversityand environment.

Greenpeace regional presence in

Southeast Asia was formally established

in 2000. Through its campaigns,

Greenpeace aim to protect the region

from further ecological ruin and serve as

beacon of awareness and action in the

interest of environmental protection

and sustainable development. To date,

its work in the region has include stop-

ping hazardous waste imports, opposing

radioactive shipments, campaigning

against destructive logging, stopping

dirty and polluting technologies like

waste incinerators and coal power

plants, halting the spread of GMOs,

promoting renewable energy and

sustainable solution to key environmen-

tal problems. Often working with local

groups, Greenpeace has been leading

successful campaign in Thailand, the

Philippines and Indonesia.

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