Crisis & Belief

The Political Economy of Care and Fear

Petrik Runst – UW Eau Claire

Government Spending in the 20th century

Robert Higgs (1988) Crisis & Leviathan, Oxford University Press

Supply Side Explanation

• Gordon Tullock

• James Buchanan

• Richard Wagner

• Niskanen

• Mancur Olson

• Vincent Ostrom

Public Choice

Demand Side Explanation?

• Do people actually want more government during a crisis?

Evolutionary Psychology

Coordination of tribal movementcooperation warfare

Van Vugt, 2006; Van Vugt, Hogan& Kaiser, in press

Economics

War

More Evidence

Common leadership characteristics across 61 societies that correspond to desirable characteristic of ‘Big Men’

DenHartog et al., 1999; see also Epitropaki & Martin, 2004; Hogan & Kaiser, 2005; Lord & Maher, 1993Boehm, 1999; Johnson & Earle, 2000; Sahlins, 1963

More Evidence

• When reminded of their mortality, people are more likely to demand a charismatic leader

Cohen, 2004

• Americans are more likely to vote for hawkish leaders at times of military crisis

McCann (1992)

• Approval ratings increase when under attackJohnson & Tierney (2006)

Modern Evidence

• Crisis & Government Growth – 19th and 20th century

Runst & Wagner (2011)Higgs (1988)Warren (1935)

Some Theory – Haidt (2012)

Liberals

Care/Harm

Fairness

liberty foundation

Economic Crisis More Government

Some Theory – Haidt (2012)

Conservatives

Loyalty/Betrayal

Authority/Subversion

Sanctity/Degradation

Military Crisis More Government

World Value Survey

Change in Attitudes =

Dependent Variable Recession Lag

Change in …

No lag 1 years 2 years

Government Responsibility Recession Coefficient 0.77 0.48 -0.27

1 – more individual responsibility p-value 0.08 0.349 0.6

10 – more government responsibility N=24

Strong Leader is Good or Bad Recession Coefficient -0.16 -0.43 -0.2

1 – Good p-value 0.33 0.013 0.23

10 – Bad N=22

Left Right Spectrum Recession Coefficient 0.03 -0.12 -0.34

1 – Left p-value 0.87 0.57 0.1

10 – Right N=22

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20091.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

Figure 1 - Swiss Household Panel - Tax Increase for the Rich(1 – favor increase; 3 – favor decrease)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

% UDC liberal-conservative % PSS social democrat% PLS liberal % PES green

Figure 2 - Swiss Household Panel - Party Preference

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201022.00%

24.00%

26.00%

28.00%

30.00%

32.00%

34.00%

36.00%

38.00%

DEMS REPS

Figure 3 - General Social Survey - Party Preferences

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

CDU/CSU conservative SPD social democratFDP liberal The Left

Figure 4 - ALLBUS - Party Preference

Experimental Set-Up

Control Treatment

No-Video Video Financial Crisis

N=60 N=60

Survey Survey

Free Trade

Minimum Wage

Redistribution

Etc.