crime and violence in times of demographic change abuse of the old? and what about the young?

Crime and violence in times of demographic change

Abuse of the old? And what about the young?

Prof. Thomas Görgen, PhD

German Police University

- Criminology and Crime Prevention -

Demography ….

.... and why it matters

Victimization in old age

A closer look at some risks in later life

Juvenile crime in times of shrinking youth cohorts

Expert recommendations on the future of juvenile crime prevention and control

Some conclusions

Overview

Source: German Federal Statistics Office

Germany: Change in age structure of population

Population ageing in Germany, 1960-2050: % of population < 20 y. and 80 y.+

28 27

21 2018

16 15

2 34 5 5

8

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

< 20 y.

80 y.+

Source: Federal Statistics Office, 2008

Germany: dependency ratios 1950-2060

Source: German Federal Statistics Office

Data on nursing care /care dependency in Germany

31.12.2009: 2.38 mil. care recipients (drawing benefits from LTC insurance)

69% in-home care; home care mostly provided by relatives; trend towards more professional care

12/2009: ca. 12.000 home care services nationwide; ca. 11.600 residential care institutions

estimates:

3.27 mil. care recipients in 2030

4.36 mil. care recipients in 2050

Sources: Federal Statistics Office / Federal Department of Health

Age and criminal behaviour

• Across societies and throughout history, criminal behaviour peaks in adolescence and early adulthood ( „Age Crime Curve“)

Source: Mastrigt & Farrington (2009); police registered offences in a region in Northern England, March 2005-Februayr 2008

Our forefathers knew about that …

"I would there were no age betweene ten and three and twenty, or that youth would sleep out the rest: for there is nothing in the betweene but getting wenches with childe,

wronging the Auncientry, stealing, fighting."

(William Shakespeare, The Winter’s Tale)

Generally no: Victimization risks in age group 60+ are lower than in all other phases of adulthood

Lower victimization risks in later life to be found …

In police crime statistics

In data from population-based victimization surveys

Older age – a risk factor for victimization?

Police recorded victims of completed violent offendes per 100.000 of respective age group, Germany 1994-2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Vic

tim

s p

er 1

00.0

00 i

nh

ab.

< 14 J 14 - 17 J. 18 - 20 J. 21 - 59 J. 60 +

Age and police-recorded risk of violent victimization

Source: Police Crime Statistics, Federal Republic of Germany

Victimization survey, Germany 2005: 5-year prevalence of victimization by victim’s gender + age (%; 3.030 subjects aged 40-85; 16 violent, sexual + property offences )

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

women

men

Study funded by German Federal Ministry of Family, Seniors, Women, and Youth

Victimization survey, Germany 2005: 12-month prevalence of psych. aggression/ phys. assault by family/household members

(%)

24,9

54,6

26,3

49,1

1,64,5

1,33,4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40-59 y. 60 y.+

women - psych.

men - psych.

women - phys.

men - phys.


The picture seems fairly clear ….

Adults aged 60-85 years are victimized less often than younger adults.

This applies to

Police recorded as well as unrecorded (self-reported) experiences of crime

"crime in the streets" / stranger-perpetrated offences as well as domestic violence

But, we have consider a few more aspects ….

Continuously rising life expectancy Frailty, care dependency, functional restrictions occur at higher ages

Gerontology: „third age“ – „fourth age“ distinction (Baltes)

(1) Old age ≠ old age

Limitations of 4th age simultaneously affect

Ability to participate in large-scale social science surveys

Ability to report victimizations to police

Vulnerability with regard toCommitting offenses against older personConcealing offences committed against older personSeverity and persistence of consequences of victimization

(2) We know little about victimization in 4th age

(3) There are specific danger zones in old age

Focus on:

Property offences targeted at the very old

Abuse and neglect in caregiving

Danger zones in the fourth age (1):Property crimes targeted at the very old

Deception burglary / larceny-by-trick / fraudulent offences ("it's me scam")

Offenders select victims because of characteristics associated with very old age (weak, slow, easy to deceive, lives alone…..)

Perpetrators pretend trust relationships by posing as relatives (via telephone), craftsmen etc.

Targeted at "fourth agers" in private households and with control over their possessions

Victims of deception burglary / larceny-by-trick per 1.000 inhabitants of resp. age group per

year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

total

female

male

Based on police data; German federal state of Bremen, Jan 2004 – May 2006

- the very old

- especially women (living alone)

Danger zones in the fourth age (2):Abuse and neglect of older care recipients

Being a family caregiver or occupying a work role that permits close contact opens opportunities for crime / abuse.

Caregiving creates multiple potential for conflicts from which abuse and neglect may arise.

Care in domestic settings represents “perfect opportunity structures" for motivated offenders (very low formal and informal social control).

Self-report survey among home-care nurses 12 month prevalence of problem behaviour

towards care recipients (% of nurses; n=427; 2005)

8,5

21,4

9,6

3,8

18,816,0

39,7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

phys. abuse psych. abuse illegit. mechan. restraint

illegit. chem. restraint neglect: care neglect: socioemotional

any


Survey of home-care nurses: Risk factors for problem behaviour towards care recipients

Higher risk for nurses who

• report frequent assaults by care recipients

• regularly care for a high number of care recipients suffering from dementia

• use alcohol to cope with work-related stress

• judge the overall quality of care provided by the home-care service they are employed by as poor


Self-report survey among family caregivers: 12 month prevalence of problem behaviour towards

care recipients (% caregivers; n=254; 2006/07)

19,4

47,6

1,24,4 6,3

13,5

53,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

phys. abuse verbal aggression/psych. abuse

illeg. mechan. restraint illeg. chem. restraint

neglect: care neglect: socioemotional

any


Qualitative interview study: Interviews with care recipients, family caregivers, nurses

(Germany 2005/2006)

Factors linked to abuse by family caregivers

• low quality of pre-caregiving relationship

• motivation to care mainly financially based

• stressed caregiver attributing care recipient‘s behaviour to „bad intentions“ (and not to illness)

• caregiver‘s bad physical and mental health

• caregiver‘s substance abuse

• caregiver‘s missing knowledge about illnesses

• poverty / lack of financial resources

• care recipient‘s challenging behaviour


Incident-based typology of elder abuse /neglect

4. intentionto harm,

intent existing across

situations

3. intentionto harm,

intent limited to situation

2. no intention to harm +

abuse / neglect across

situations

1. no intention to harm +

abuse / neglect limited to situation

+ -intention to harm?a

bu

se

tra

ns

-sit

ua

tio

na

l? +

-

Security in later life: the overall picture

Life in later adulthood (60+) is relatively safe in general.

However, there are specific risks for very old people and for those requiring care:

older people being selectively targeted by property offenders due to characteristics associated with very old age

specific risk factors and opportunity structures associated with care dependency / caregiving

Abuse of care-dependent older people:

caregiving burdensome; high potential for conflict

perfect opportunity structures for motivated offenders

And what about the young?

Study „YouthCrime2020“

Commissioned by Conference of the German Ministers of the Interior in 2009

Primary focus: forecast on possible trends in youth crime / youth violence up to 2020; implications for prevention and intervention

Multi method – multi perspective approach:

Combining qualitative-heuristic methods (Delphi survey; scenario method, qualitative interviews) with extrapolations of crime data

Integrating perspectives of researchers and of practitioners in different fields (police, judiciary, social work, crime prevention)

Demographic change: Shrinking population / declining numbers of juveniles

5,6 5,2 5,24,8 4,3 4,03,4 3,2 2,82,9 2,4 2,33,9 3,7 3,4

15,4 14,9 14,6

29,5 30,2 29,2

16,7 17,3 18,6

05

10152025303540455055606570758085

2008 2014 2020year

Inha

b. in

mil.

0-7 y. 8-13 y.

14-17 y. 18-20 y.

21-24 y. 25-39 y.

40-64 y. 65 y.+

Extrapolating trends in juvenile crime from police crime statistics

Source: Görgen et al. (2010). Report on YouthCrime2020 study

Extrapolating trends in juvenile crime by gender


Male juveniles

Female juveniles

YouthCrime2020: Synthesis of expert views on trends in youth crime

In the next decade, youth crime is expected to be mainly

widespread delinquency

of predominantly low severity

and in most cases a transitory developmental phenomenon.

But: specific problems to be expected

in marginalized social groups / communities / neighbourhoods

especially in metropolitan areas

In these „multi problem neighbourhoods“, experts expect

rising juvenile crime

higher percentage of repeat offenders


YouthCrime2020: Synthesis of expert views on trends in youth crime (2)

Increasing role of girls in juvenile offending

Increase of non-physical aggression (bullying, stalking, harassment etc.)

Trend towards violence committed by short-lived spontaneous groups

Technological development changes opportunity structures and phenomenology of youth crime / delinquency

Repeat offenders

from marginalized groups / neighbourhoods

mainly in urban / metropolitan areas

more offences committed by groups


Expert views on the future of tackling juvenile crime

Key features of strategy against youth crime /

Broad range of measures – ranging from early support for families at risk of violence, poverty, social disintegration to timely law enforcement response to severe forms of juvenile crime

Measures specifically targeted at certain groups and offences

Multi-agency work – especially connecting police, school, Youth welfare services


Expert recommendations (1)

Sceptical view on primarily punitive measures (e.g. raising maximum sentences in juvenile criminal law); exception: acceleration of criminal justice response / celerity of sanctions

Police work requires specialization on youth crime, cultural diversity training, increasing number of officers with migration background

Refining police concepts for persistent offenders and for young persons at risk of becoming career offenders

Needs cooperation with welfare, schools, courts, public prosecutors, probationary service etc.

Evaluation research on effectiveness of concepts needed


Expert recommendations (2)

Multi-agency case conferences targeted at repeat offenders

Conducting local analyses of crime and security problems (including surveys tackling unrecorded crime / fear of crime etc.)

Institutionalization of knowledge exchange between German police forces on problems of youth crime

Taking stock of programmes targeted at repeat offenders

Setting up and maintaining a German database on evaluated prevention programs


Crime in times of demographic change

Ageing societies present challenges and opportunities for crime control / crime prevention.

Age-crime curve Generally, demographic change will rather reduce than increase crime rates.

Specific risks of vulnerable 4th agers to be taken into consideration (“hard-to-reach population”).

Shrinking youth cohorts will probably decrease volume of crime; challenge of refining concepts directed at persistent offenders.

Inter-agency cooperation necessary and promising with regard to the young and the (very) old.

Ageing police forces – another side of demographic change. But that would be a whole new story….

Thank you for your attention!

Thomas GörgenGerman Police UniversityDepartment of Criminology and Crime [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

crime and violence in times of demographic change abuse of the old? and what about the young?

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