cricos #00212k department of defence canberra, june 28, 2013 professor colin butler arc future...
TRANSCRIPT
CRICOS #00212KDepartment of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013
Professor Colin ButlerARC Future Fellow
Climate change and security
CRICOS #00212K
Climate change is a geopolitical "threat multiplier," UK climate envoy says
Molly Peterson | March 5th, 2012
2
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti
CRICOS #00212K
A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century
Date: Thursday 22 - Friday 23 March, 2012Location: Lancaster House Hosted by the Foreign & CommonwealthOffice in partnership with Wilton Park
A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century focused on the emerging threat climate change poses to
global security and prosperity.
UN Security Council debate (07/11); Berlin conference Climate Diplomacy in Perspective (10/11).
Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions and fragilities in states vulnerable to climate and
resource stresses such as extreme weather. https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1167/
3
CRICOS #00212K
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon climate change and conflict
• "In coming decades, changes in our environment and the resulting upheavals from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable land are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict"
March 1, 2007
4
CRICOS #00212K
Waterscarcity
Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
5
CRICOS #00212K
World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security RiskGerman Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007
6
CRICOS #00212K7
“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be
discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
CRICOS #00212K
8
CRICOS #00212K
“If the country faces famine and widespread hunger … which loss of crops will almost
certainly generate”.. “resultant situation could lead to a nuclear war at worst, and
conversion of this part of the world into a centre for terror activities at best.”
Fateh Ullah Khan Gandapur, former chair of Indus River System Authority (editorial April 2009) in Pakistan’s largest circulation daily newspaper.
Bagla, P. 2010. Along the Indus River, Saber Rattling Over Water Security. Science, 328, 1226-1227.
9
CRICOS #00212K10
“extremely important”
“very important”
Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science (2010)
CRICOS #00212K
The counterview
Water conflicts avoided .. Scarcity increases
pressure for peace e.g. De Stefano et al (2012). Climate change and the
institutional resilience of international river basins. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 193-209.
“The constant struggle for the waters of the Jordan .., and other
life-giving Middle East rivers, little under-stood outside the
region, was a principal cause of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and
could help spark a new all-out conflict.” e.g. Cooley (1984). The War over
Water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3-26.
11
CRICOS #00212K
Hung Liang-chi 1744-1809
Honda Toschiaki 1744-1821
Thomas Malthus 1766-1834
Population/resources: an old debate
12
CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K
Non-human carrying capacity
13
CRICOS #00212K14
CRICOS #00212K
Human Carrying Capacity
population supportable, in good health, into the foreseeable future
• Non-human species: CC = fn [natural capital]• Human CC = fn [Natural, social, human, built and
financial “capitals”]
– Inter-convertibility of types of “capital” (partial)– Ability to expand HCC via culture/technology– But: need to conserve the essential natural capital– And, as capital/person declines, so can co-operation
(social capital) – risk of conflict15
CRICOS #00212K
Material
Cultural
Political
Security
Environmental(e.g. food , water, energy)
Freedom (e.g. speech, travel, employment), policies Tolerance
Police, militarylaw, other determinantse.g. distributionnow and in future
16
e.g. Attitude to women, treatment of dying, tolerance
Health determinants Research, technology,
co-operation , eg vaccines, hospitals, health care systems
Scientific, Technical
Health
CRICOS #00212K
Material
Cultural
Political
Behav-iour
Environmental(e.g. food , water, energy)
Freedom and responsibility
Law, local, national, international
17
e.g. tolerance, sense of identity, anticipation
Securitydeterminants
Military personnel and hardware
Military
Security
CRICOS #00212K18