creating the context for attainable home building ...€¦ · under 1,400 1,400 to 1,799 1,800 to...
TRANSCRIPT
CREATING THE CONTEXT
FOR ATTAINABLE HOME
BUILDING: COMMUNITY
DEVELOPER
PERSPECTIVE
2
For-sale For-rent Both for-sale andfor-rent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
New For-Saleproduct orClass Arentals
Resaleproduct orClass Brentals
No product isserving this
market
Other (pleasespecify)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE HOUSING BROADLY; WE ARE FOCUSED ON NEW FOR-SALE
Source: ULI
Defining Attainable Housing Product Type Product Serving Attainable Housing
N =
3
For-sale For-rent Both for-sale andfor-rent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
New For-Saleproduct orClass Arentals
Resaleproduct orClass Brentals
No product isserving this
market
Other (pleasespecify)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE HOUSING BROADLY; WE ARE FOCUSED ON NEW FOR-SALE
Source: ULI
Defining Attainable Housing Product Type Product Serving Attainable Housing
N =
4
WHAT’S HAPPENED TO HOUSING?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Median home price
Median household income
Median Home Price and Median Household Income
(1975 = 100)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
New Starts (left axis) %SF (right axis)
Homebuilding – Starts in the United States (,000s)
5
THE PROBLEM IN ONE SLIDE. . .
Note: Prices not adjusted for inflation; Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Under $200,000
$200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
$750,000 and Over
New Home Sales by Price Band Relative to Pre-Recession Levels (2003-2006 Average = 100%, United States)
6
HOUSEHOLD SIZES DECLINE. . . BEDROOM COUNT GROWS
Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCO
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
Household Types
1-2 persons 3 person 4+ persons
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
New Construction By Bedroom Count
1-2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms
7
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SHRINKING FOOTPRINT?
Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCOI
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% o
f Hom
es U
nder 1
,400 S
FD
istr
ibution o
f N
ew
Hom
es b
y S
ize
Under 1,400 1,400 to 1,799 1,800 to 2,399 2,400 to 2,999 3,000 or more Percent of Homes Under 1,400 SF
Average Size of New For-Sale Homes Delivered 1999-2017, United States
8
THE STRANGE DISAPPEARANCE OF MEDIUM DENSITY FOR-SALE
NOTE: Incomes are represented in 2017 dollars; Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCOI
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
197
4
197
7
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
200
4
200
7
201
0
201
3
201
6
Detached SF Attached % Attached
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
197
4
197
7
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
200
1
200
4
200
7
201
0
201
3
201
6
For-Sale For-Rent % For-Sale
MF Permits as % of Total Permits MF Permits by Intention: For-Rent vs. For-Sale
9
ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE: 80% - 120% OF AMI
Source: ULI
Housingattainable to60% - 80% of
AMI (Areamedianincome)
Housingattainable to60% - 100%
of AMI
Housingattainable to80% - 120%
of AMI
Other (pleasespecify)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Housing providedwithout subsidy tomeet this market
segment
Housing providedwith subsidies
Subsidies have noimpact on thisproduct type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Members Definition -- Income Definition Members Definition Attainable = No Subsidies
N =
10
UNEVEN INCOME GROWTH
Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCO
11
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-100%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
ATTAINABLE HOUSING MARKET SHARE
Source: ULI
What Share of the Total Demand for Housing is in the
“Attainable Band” (80% to 120%)
Share Of Attainable Housing That Member Respondents are
Delivering in the “Attainable Band”
N =
12
CHALLENGES TO DELIVERING ATTAINABLE HOUSING
Source: ULI
1.6 1.671.8
2.08 2.14
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.53 2.6 2.64
33.24
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Challenges To Delivering Attainable Housing
N =
13
SUCCESS FACTORS IN DELIVERING ATTAINABLE HOUSING
Source: ULI
2.26
2.5
2.67
3 3
3.56
BuildingEfficiencies/Design
FinancialIncentives/Subsidies
Other (Please SpecifyBelow)
Local CommunitySupport
Relief from localrequirements
Increased Density
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Factors Contributing to Success in Contributing Attainable Housing
N =
14
ATTAINABLE HOUSING SOLUTIONS: WHO AND HOW
Source: ULI
87.80%82.93% 85.37%
78.05%70.73%
7.32%
First-timehomebuyer
Prospective buyerwith limited down
payment
Families(households with
children)
Singles andCouples
Retirees on FixedIncome
Other (pleasespecify)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1.71 1.71 1.71
2.462.85
3.23.38
Limitedcommunityamenities
Less desirablelocation
Lower qualityfinishes
Attached vsdetachedproduct
Smaller lot size Other (PleaseSpecify Below)
Smaller homesize
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Acceptable
Consumer
Solutions
for
Attainable
Housing
Based on
Industry’s
Opinion
Attainable
Housing
Solutions
are for
Everyone,
Not just
Millennials.
N =
15
CONSUMER PREFERENCE FOR LOCATION AND AMENITIES
Source: ULI
0% 5% 10% 15%20% 25% 30%35%
Resort area
Small town
Rural area
City in a mostly residentialneighborhood
City near a mix of offices,apartments, and shops
Suburban area with mostlyresidential uses
Suburban area with a mix ofhouses, shops, and
businesses
$100K+
$50-$100k
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Fitness centers
Gated entry
Trails
Package receiving
Resort pool (lounge)
Art and culture, such as…
Farmers market
Dog park
Sports courts
Pocket Parks
Virtual services, such as…
Lap pool
Children's pool
Maker spaces, providing…
Community garden
Golf
Very important Somewhat important Not important
RCLCO’s National Consumer Preference Survey
N =
16
HOMEBUILDING LANDSCAPE: STRATEGIES AND OBSERVATIONS
What builders are doing (Strategies):
1. Small Homes (Reducing Footage)
2. High Density Detached (Cluster);
3. Missing Middle (Attached);
4. Value Housing (Brand Segment).
What the committed are finding (Results)
1. Similar margins and greater price elasticity
2. Segmentation beyond density, size and price (space choices, finishes, exterior elevations, and
aesthetics)
3. Design within, between and around homes (walkability and gathering spaces)
4. What builders are doing (Strategies):
5. Lifestyle choice messaging: communicating the trade-offs (walkability, low maintenance, financial
flexibility)
6. Attainable orientation as an entitlement strategy: incomes mix easily
17
BUILDER STRATEGIES -- SMALL HOMES
Image source: Community websites
Boulder Creek Neighborhoods
Wee-Cottages; Stapleton, CO
Characteristics
DefinitionLess than 1,400 SF (Tier 1)
Less than 1,800 SF (Tier 2)
Unit Type 1-3 BD, 1-2BA
Unit Size 700 – 1,400 SF
Density 8-20 du/ac
Land PlanAll
Most effective with Density
The Cottage Company
Danielson Grove; Kirkland, WA
New Home Company
Azure at Escencia; Mission Viejo, CA
18
BUILDER STRATEGIES – VALUE HOMES
Image source: Community websites
Fresh Paint by Garman Homes
Briar Chapel; Chapel Hill, NC
Characteristics
Definition Streamlined structural and interior finish options
Unit Type All
Unit Size All
Density All
Landplan All
DR Horton Express
Windermere Townhomes; Shakopee,
MN
LGI
Mirror Lake; Lehigh Acres, FL
19
BUILDER STRATEGIES – MISSING MIDDLE
Image source: Community websites
Holmes Homes
Mews Collection; South Jordan, UT
CHARACTERISTICS
DefinitionDefined by Opticos Architects as typologies
between detached hand mid-rise buildings
Density 12-20 du/ac
Unit Type1-3 BD, 1-2BA
One-Two-three story
Unit Size 700 – 1,900 SF
Landplan
Options
Duplex to Multi-Plex (Stacked, Side/Side), Row
Townhome,, Bungalow Cluster, Combos
Onyx East
Switchyard at Onyx; Indianapolis, IN
Michael Harris Homes
The Copley at Crown; Gaithersburg,
MD
20
BUILDER STRATEGIES - CLUSTER
Image source: Community websites
Lennar
Olive Grove; Chino, CA
CHARACTERISTICS
Location Suburban, Rural
Unit Type1-3 BD, 1-2BA
Two-story
Unit Size 700 – 1,500 SF
Lot Dimensions Typical 6-Court Modules: 125’ x 150’
Lot Size 2,500 (50 x 50)
Density 8-20 du/ac
Landplan
Green Court
Motor Court
Alley Load
Lennar
Autumn Field; Chino, CA
Bela Flor Communities
Bella Rosa; Mesa, AZ
21
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO - DENSITY
o 5 Product Types
• Condominiums
• Townhomes
• Duplexes
• High-Density
Detached
o 23.9 Acres
o 535 Units
o 22.38 Averge
Density
o 740 s.f. – 1,760 s.f.
22
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO -ARCHITECTURAL APPROACH
o High-Density
Detached
o 16.4 du/ac
o 876 – 1,195 SF
23
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO - ADSALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS
o Modify planning criteria to increase densities
o 2 year process
o Revised ADS include:
• Relaxed parking standards in 55+ neighborhoods
• In MR neighborhoods increase guest parking from 200‘
to 300‘ for 75% of the units
• Planned Concept products (SFD Densities >8 du/ac)
decrease building separations to 6‘ on zero lot line
• Useable private open space for decks, roof decks and
balconies up to 75 S.F.
24
AMENITY SWIPES DATA
AUSTIN LA ORLANDO DC
221 W 6th St
Suite 2030
Austin, TX 78701
11601 Wilshire Blvd
Suite 1650
Los Angeles, CA
90025
964 Lake Baldwin Ln
Suite 100
Orlando, FL 32814
7200 Wisconsin Ave
Suite 1110
Bethesda, MD 20814
Report prepared by:
Adam Ducker
Senior Managing Director
P: (240) 644-0980
W: RCLCO.COM
Lorry Lynn
Principal
P: (714) 329-2118
W: RCLCO.COM