+

Creating an Operations-Based Travel Forecast Tool for Small Oregon Communities

TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

May 20, 2009

Chris Maciejewski, P.E. – DKS Associates

5

10

+Presentation Outline

Traditional Planning Issues / Shortcomings

Methodology Overview

Outcomes

Applications in Transportation Plans

Conclusions

+Transportation Planning Issues in Small Communities

Capacity needs dominate system More lanes Couplet Bypass

Reduced state funding capacity [how is this unique to small cities?]

Highway congestion 20-30 days per year

Limited matching funds for highways

Looking for solutions to protect community livability

State Highways Local Perspective

+Limitations of Traditional Methods for Travel Forecasts

Travel Demand Model Not Available

Manual Methods Exist… Trend-line Cumulative (TIS-style)

But They Cannot: Consider operations React to congestion Evaluate multiple

scenarios

Unconstrained Trend-line?

Congested Corridor?

Year

Volu

me

+An Integrated Tool Needed to Meet All Study Requirements

Assess Corridor Management

Local Circulation Enhancement

Relief Valves For Seasonal Congestion

Balance Of Community Livability with Highway Capacity

+New Elements Needed to Strengthen Forecast Process

Cannot dynamically assess route changes

Does not consider effects of congestion

Cost effective scenario testing

Weakness of Current Process Tool Features

Develops trip tables to test circulation patterns

Uses node delays for assignments

Rapid Evaluation Of Alternatives

+Key Methods Applied

Parcel Level Land Use

Use Of NAVTEQ Network Files

ITE Trip Rates

Simple Gravity Model

HCM Node Delays

Export Network/Volumes To Synchro/SimTraffic

Forecast Process

+It Looks a Model and Talks Like a Model, but it is a Forecast Tool

+Quality Review Process

Calibration Exceeded Expectations R2 = 0.98, slope =

1.03 Reasonable turn-

movements Local circulation

patterns captured

Simple Gravity Model Reasonable For Small Communities

+Volume to Capacity Results for Links and Nodes

+Other Useful Results

Volume Difference Plots Quickly summarize alternative effects Useful to communicate changes in traffic flows

Conversion of VISUM file to Synchro/Simtraffic

+Sample Application – Sisters, OR Forecasts Responded to Corridor Congestion

Detailed Evaluation of Corridor Management Options Visual tools facilitated participation from all interested

parties Led to City and ODOT consensus (first time in 20 years) Corridor solution with seasonal ITS, City arterial corridor

+Key Findings & Recommendations

Ability to rapidly/accurately test network changes

Graphic display tools help build consensus

Corridor Management = Fewer Unfunded Highway Projects

Most appropriate application for: Small urban areas (less than 15,000 pop.) Significant growth forecasts Multiple scenarios need to be evaluated and tweaked for

consensus building

+What About Larger Urban Areas? Integrate Operations

Into a Travel Demand Model? Sub-area plans Corridor plans Circulation studies

Utilize Travel Demand Model Trip Tables

Take Advantage of Operations-Based Assignments

Quasi-MesoscopicSub-Area Model

Forecast Process

+Next Steps

Can travel times in the forecast tool (including the HCM node delays) be utilized for greenhouse gas estimations? VMT (by speed bin) x Emissions Rate = Greenhouse

Gas? Valid for relative comparison of alternatives?

+Acknowledgements

DKS Associates Staff Carl Springer Garth Appanaitis Mat Dolata Brad Coy

Oregon Department of Transportation Transportation Planning Analysis Unit (TPAU)