crafting great hypotheses - droidcon 2016

UX TRACK

HOANG HUYNH @aetheros

CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES

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WHAT IF Quantum Break - courtesy of Remedy

ABOUT

THIS IS ME

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HI! My name is HOANG

I AM A DESIGNER

Experience Strategist, partner PRSD CSPO®, Advisor and Consultant

Lecturer, University of Bologna (FAM) Country Manager IDF

@aetheros

CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES4

courtesy of someone on Ebay5

HI! WE ARE

A DESIGNER

courtesy of LADYBEARD6

HI! WE ARE

A DESIGNER


MEANWHILE…‣ Fact: Observations about the world around us. Example: “It’s bright

outside.”

‣ Hypothesis: A proposed explanation for a phenomenon made as a starting point for further investigation. Example: “It’s bright outside because the sun is probably out.”

‣ Theory: A well-substantiated explanation acquired through the scientific method and repeatedly tested and confirmed through observation and experimentation. Example: “When the sun is out, it tends to make it bright outside.”

‣ Law: A statement based on repeated experimental observations that describes some phenomenon of nature. Proof that something happens and how it happens, but not why it happens. Example: Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation.


IT’S NOT ABOUT


A STORY


A STORY

1880 Otto Frederick Rohwedder


‣ 1912 Otto invented the bread slicer machine

‣ He sold everything to fund his new venture

‣ 1916 He created a prototype

‣ 1917 A fire destroyed everything

‣ 1927 He tried again

A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!


‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again…

‣ Once more, with feelings

‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread

‣ The rest is history…

A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!


‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again…

‣ Once more, with feelings

‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread

‣ The rest is history…

A STORY SAD, OTTO

14 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES

THE REAL HERO

CHARLES IN CHARGE !

Charles Strite

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DO NOT RELY ON LUCKCRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES

THE BOTTOM LINE


‣ We track everything on the client (app) and server side.

‣ We track every action, every intent, with their result.

‣ We track the elapsed time

‣ We track the errors and the rebounded actions and all the give ups.

0"

5"

10"

15"

20"

25"

30"

35"

1"285"

569"

853"

1137"

1421"

1705"

1989"

2273"

2557"

2841"

3125"

3409"

3693"

3977"

4261"

4545"

4829"

Number'of'Errors'

Number"of"Errors"

0,00%"

50,00%"

100,00%"

150,00%"

200,00%"

250,00%"

300,00%"

350,00%"

1"285"

569"

853"

1137"

1421"

1705"

1989"

2273"

2557"

2841"

3125"

3409"

3693"

3977"

4261"

4545"

4829"

%'of'Errors'

%"of"Errors"

0"

0,2"

0,4"

0,6"

0,8"

1"

1,2"

1,4"

1"270"

539"

808"

1077"

1346"

1615"

1884"

2153"

2422"

2691"

2960"

3229"

3498"

3767"

4036"

4305"

4574"

4843"

Average'Time'

Average"Time"

courtesy from ADOBE17

A NOT SO FICTIONAL EXAMPLE

Crafting Great Hypotheses18

DEVISE A PLAN


‣ What is the problem?

‣ Will it be considered?

‣ Will it sell? How?

‣ Will it be used? HOW?

‣ Will it be appreciated?

‣ Will it be loved?

ABOUT THE BUSINESS

LOVE MARKS

AWARENESS

FAMILIARITY

CONSIDERATION

PURCHASE

LOYALTY

LOVE

WORSHIP


LEANING LEAN…

BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros21

THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE

HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS




WE ARE WRONG ’TIL “reasonably” PROVEN RIGHT

WE ARE RIGHT UNTIL PROVEN WRONG




WILL BE TESTED (for sure)

WE ARE ALREADY RIGHT (who cares?)

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If we believe there is even a one percent chance that he is our enemy, we have to take it as an absolute certainty. ~ Daredevil”

ASSUMPTIONS

BY SHEER WILL

BvS - courtesy of Warner Bros

Breaking Bad - courtesy of AMC25

DING.

ASSUMPTIONS

BY MEMORY OR EXPERIENCE

FOOTNOTE or SECTION TITLE26

ASSUMPTIONS

BY CONTEXT

SHERLOCK - courtesy of BBC127

‣ DEDUCTION:using general rules to m a k e a p r e d i c t i o n about a future event or action.

‣ INDUCTION: drawing new (hopefully) conclus ions or ru les based on observations or patterns of behavior.

HYPOTHESES

THE SMARTEST WAY


‣ 1. Systems Analysis analyzing the parts of a system and how they interact; simulations

‣ 2. Problem Solving overcoming constraints or limiting conditions to achieve a goal

‣ 3. Experimental Inquiry generating and testing explanations of observed phenomena

‣ 4. Investigationidentifying and resolving issues regarding past events that have confusions or contradictions

THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

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BIAS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND

THE CORNER


NASSIM TALEB’S

BLACK SWAN

30 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES

BIASES

FINAL DESTINATION, courtesy of New Line31

‣ The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It c a u s e s p e o p l e t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e b o t h t h e possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the p o p u l a c e i n i t s d i s a s t e r preparations.

BIASES - BEFORE

Dr. WHO’s Perception Filter - courtesy of BBC132

‣ Somebody / Someone else's problem (also known as SEP) i s a psychological effect where people choose to dissociate themselves from an issue that may be in critical need of recognition.

BIASES - BEFORE

From TUMBLR33

‣ Dunning-Kruger effectT h e t e n d e n c y f o r unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency f o r e x p e r t s t o underestimate their own ability

BIASES - DURING A TEST

courtesy of James Clear34

‣ Confirmation bias The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.

‣ Congruence bias T h e t e n d e n c y t o t e s t h y p o t h e s e s e x c l u s i v e l y th rough d i rec t te s t i ng , instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses

BIASES - DURING A TEST


‣ H i n d s i g h t b i a s , a l s o known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping d e t e r m i n i s m , i s t h e inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been pred ictab le , desp i te there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it

BIASES - AFTER

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GAMES, SIMULATION,

INQUIRYCRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES

WITH YOUR COMPANY / CLIENTS

THE RIGHT WAY


‣ SIMPLE, CLEAR, CONCISE

‣ TESTABLE

‣ FALSIFIABLE (the opposite exists)

‣ CANNOT BE PROVEN(It’s philosophical)

HYPOTHESES’

FEATURES


‣ FORMULATE THE NULL HYPOTHESES (H0)

‣ CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE ALTERNATIVES

‣ DEFINING VARIABLES

‣ SPECIFY THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE ( THRESHOLD )

‣ VALIDATE LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW

CRAFTING HYPOTHESES

BACK IN THE MATH CLASS

from DAVID SHERWIN39

‣ Attitude-related hypothesis “TV watchers who use social networks like to hear about their friends’ favorite TV shows.”

‣ Behavior-related hypothesis“TV watchers only want to share clips from shows they watch most frequently.”

‣ Feature-related hypothesis “TV watchers are more likely to share a highlight from a show if it’s popular with other viewers as well.”

IF WE DO [THIS] , [VARIABLE] of CUSTOMERS WILL [BEHAVIOUR]

CRAFTING HYPOTHESES

DOMAINS

ONE CLICK CUSTOMER CARE


THE SCENARIO

‣ One action bluetooth button

Hoang Huynh @aetheros


THANK YOU

crafting great hypotheses - droidcon 2016

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