CPC Role in the Regional Climate Services Partnership

Dr. Wayne Higgins, DirectorClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

February, 2011

Background

– CPC Within NCEP

– Ongoing CPC Activities

– Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances

– CPC Forecast Operations

– NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

Outline

CPC within NCEP

CPC MissionCPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankingsrankings

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. (i.e. short term climateshort term climate))

• Forecasts in collaboration with other Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs agencies and labs

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of ProductsProducts

We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment

products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and

the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

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Seasonal Predictions

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency

Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation,

Health organizations (CDC…)

NCEP

Feedback

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

CentralGuidanceCentral

GuidanceLocal

OfficesLocal

Offices

Ongoing CPC Activities

Climate Prediction Products

• Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual

6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)

Monthly ENSO Prediction

* Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System• Global Forecast System• ECMWF

Tools used to develop prediction products• Dynamical Models• Statistical Models• Historical Analogs• Historical Composites

Outlook Verification

• CPC provides real-time gridded verification of its official outlooks

- downloadable archive

- observations

- performance metrics

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php

NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Climate Monitoring Products

• Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions– Primary modes of climate variability

(ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)

– Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Storm Tracks and Blocking

– Monsoons

– Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)

– Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US)

– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Monitor:

Atmospheric, oceanic & land surface conditions across time scales

Assess:

Hazards (droughts and floods)

Seasonal Intensity

Variability (linkages to ENSO, MJO, etc)

Predict:

Week-1, week-2, monthly and seasonal rainfall

Lifecycle: onset, maintenance and demise

Monsoon indices

Monitoring & Prediction of Monsoon Systems Worldwide

Climate Assessment Products

• Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis

– Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web)

– ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD)

– Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web)

– Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)

– Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)

– Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)

– Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

Selected Other Climate Services at CPC

• Joint Agriculture Weather Facility• USDA – DOC partnership

– Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

– Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions

• CPC International Desks• Professional development training to African

Meteorologists

• WMO partnership for regional and global activities

• Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan

• Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring

• International Monsoon Forecaster Training

Training Coverage in Africa

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Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

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Linking Weather and ClimateLinking Weather and Climate

Extreme EventsTropical StormsDroughts/Floods

Change in weather event amplitude and

frequency

Global change Trends

Change in climate event amplitude and

frequency

Tropics - El Niño, La NiñaExtratropics - Jet Patterns

Blocking

Teleconnections

Climate Change

Climate Change

WeatherWeather Climate Variability

Climate Variability

Motivation:Climate Change is manifested as changes in the number and intensity of weather extremes that have significant human impacts, thus posing a serious challenge to society.

How do climate variations and climate change affect weather events and vice-versa?

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances

Climate Modeling and Prediction Advances at NCEP

Climate Forecast System - NOAA’s first dynamic, fully-coupled operational climate forecast model Version 1 operational since Aug 2004

Version 2 operational in Mar 2011

CFSv2 Reanalysis & Reforecasts (1979-present)

Climate Test Bed – Accelerate the transition of Research to Operations (R2O) CFSv3 improvements

Multi Model Ensemble Prediction Systems

Linking SI & Decadal Modeling & Prediction

CPC-CTB-RISA Program; Regional Climate Information

Model Test Facility - Provide CFS and related datasets to community (O2R)

CFS (v1) Implemented

Climate Test Bed spin up

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Attribute CFSv1 (Operational ) CFSv2 (Upgrade)

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Upgrade (Mar 11)

CFSv2 Reanalysis

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CFSv2 Capability to Recreate Decadal Temperature Trend

OBS

Observed temperature trend

CTRL

Coupled atmosphere-ocean 50 year run with constant CO2

CO2

Observed CO2 and aerosols in both troposphere and stratosphere

Comparison of Predictive Skill for CFSv2 vs CFSv1For MJO Principle Components 1 and 2

CFSv1 & CFSv2 PC1 & PC2

Impending Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems

• Climate: Climate Multi-Model Ensemble– NCEP Climate Forecast System +

GFDL Climate Model

• Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts– WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM

• Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)– GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS

Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks

Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS

Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period

(7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)

SummarySummary

CPC• Delivers a suite of “operational” climate prediction,

monitoring, and assessment products

• Accelerates advances in climate prediction and fills gaps in the “seamless suite” of climate products

• Works across NOAA and with other organizations on expanded responsibilities for climate; interdisciplinary approaches are the key to success

• Plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services

NCEP Contributions to NOAA Climate Services

Dr. Wayne Higgins, DirectorClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

CSPM F2F Meeting February 11, 2010

NCEP Contributions to Implement The Climate Service

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• FY11 Priority Areas– Science– Predictions and Projections– Observations– Data– Monitoring– Science and Services– Partnerships– Regional– Communication– Assessments– Attribution

• Focus on Execution– NCEP FY11 AOP activities– Integration/ Redirection

• NCEP FY11 Headlines– Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2 and CFSRR)– Multi Model Ensemble (CSF+EUROSIP)– Climate Monitoring & Climate Portal

• Predictions and Projections – Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations

• Monitoring – NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit

• Science and Services– “Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate” needs

assessment

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Actions Planned• Improve statistical and dynamical forecast models,

tools and techniques• Issue operational climate outlooksMilestones• FY11Q4: Develop & test a seasonal MME

forecast tool that combines CFS & EUROSIP• FY11Q3: Evaluate prediction of sea-ice in CFSv2 • FY11Q3: Assess prediction skill for week2 to

week4 in the CFSv2• FY11Q3: Issue and update the 2011 Atlantic and

Pacific Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks • FY11Q4: Develop new metric based on extended

range and seasonal forecasts• FY11Q3: Establish International Monsoon

Forecaster Training Desk

Predictions and ProjectionsDRAFT EXAMPLE

Task: Sustain and Enhance Climate Operations

Objective: Improve scientific understanding

Performance Measures: US Seasonal Temperature Forecasts

Core Capability : Understanding and Modeling

Societal Challenge: Climate Impacts on Water Resources; Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate

Target: 21.0Actual: 21.4

Target: 21.0Actual: 21.4

Risk:

• Implement MOA, CONOPS and AOP milestones between NWS and CS for CFS development, execution, archive and (real-time) delivery

Mitigating Risk:

• MOA, CONOPS currently under development

Actions Planned• Enhance coordination of climate monitoring

activities across NOAA, including overlaps and gaps, key indices, users and outreach

Milestones• FY11Q1: Lead Climate Monitoring Summit • FY11Q2: Complete CMS Report, including

inventory, and monitoring definition • FY11Q1-Q4:Provide support for the expansion of

the NOAA Climate Portal • FY11Q3: Complete satellite-gauge merged

precipitation analysis • FY11Q4: Update A-O-L climatologies from 1971-

2000 to 1981-2010 base period

Monitoring DRAFT EXAMPLE

Objective: Improve scientific understanding

Performance Measures: Number of monitoring products incorporated into the ECV-based analysis tool

Task: NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit Report, including inventory, definition and recommendations

Core Capability : Observing Systems, Data Stewardship and Climate Monitoring

Societal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate; Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Target: X productsActual: Y products

Target: X productsActual: Y products

Risk

• Stand up Climate Monitoring Working Group to implement CMS recommendations

Mitigating Risk

• Briefs to CS Corporate Board, NOSC and NEP/NEC to request help in standing up CMWG

Name of Product US Precipitation Anomalies & AccumulationDeliverer ESRL Physical Sciences DivisionAssessment / Presentation method Online Maps Data sets drawn upon GTS, SHEF, HADS, SNOTELUser access to deeper archive Not apparent (real-time only)Observing systems utilizedUpdate Frequency DailyLatency 1 dayGeographic Scope CONUSIn Existence SincePeriod of Record 1995-2009Normal / Baseline average period UnknownTime resolutionSpatial resolutionUnits Percent of NormalVariance / Uncertainty Not apparentIntended or Apparent user base Agriculture, Water ManagementUniqueness within this ECV / CategoryScope of scientific vetting Internal assessment

NOAA Climate Services Portal

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• One-stop access for NOAA’s climate information

• Multiple audiences so multiple avenues to access information– ClimateWatch Magazine– Data and Services– Understanding Climate – Education– Climate Dashboard

www.climate.gov

Actions Planned• Identify FY11 deliverables (for AOP)• Coordinate the team of people & execution• Needs Assessment process focused initially on CFSv2 user needs • Develop storyline for needs assessment and societal challenge for the FY2011 initial focus within a

broader perspective of information needs

Milestones• FY11 Q2: Establish small team for WxCx Societal Challenge• FY11Q2: Administer Changes in Extremes of Wx and Cx Needs Assessment data collection for users of

CFS (Data Collection)• FY11Q2: Hold CFSv2 Needs Assessment Workshop with focus group of representative internal and

external users (Data Collection)• FY11Q3: CFS “White Paper” with findings and interpretation, including defining needs and proposed

means to fill gaps (Data Analysis)• FY11Q4: Incorporate Requirements for CFSv2 into CS and NWS FY12 AOP

Science and Services DRAFT EXAMPLE

Objective: Science and Services

Task: Complete an initial Needs Assessment for Changes in Extremes of Weather and ClimateCore Capability : Integrated Service Development and Decision SupportSocietal Challenge: Changes in Extremes of Weather and Climate

Target: X Actual: Y

Target: X Actual: Y

Risk

• How to tap NOAA's close partners such as the RISAs, RCCs and state climatologists?

Mitigating Risk

CPC Top Priorities1. Climate Outlooks

Objectives: Provide extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks over the US; Provide seasonal outlooks for hurricane activity, droughts, & ENSO

2. Climate MonitoringObjectives: Monitor atmospheric, oceanic and land surface climate variability

3. Climate AssessmentsObjectives: Provide assessments & attribution of weather & climate anomalies on ISI timescales

4. Interagency and International CommitmentsObjectives: Enhance partnership with USDA for Joint Agriculture Weather Facility; Sustain and enhance CPC International Desks (Africa Desk, Monsoon Desk)

5. Climate Test Bed Objectives: Accelerate transition of climate research advances to operations (CFS improvements; MME prediction systems; climate products)

6. Data Base ManagementObjectives: Maintain, develop, and backup, data bases critical to CPC prediction and monitoring activities

7. Computer Systems, Information Technology, and Operational ReliabilityObjectives: Maintain CPC computing and IT infrastructure and provide support for CPC’s operational products

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National Weather Service:Collaborating on Climate Services

Goals/Objective

Support CS vision/mission Key challenges:

Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions

Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs

User engagement User requirements and service delivery Preparedness vs Adaptation

Training/education of workforce

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Climate Responsibilities of NWS and CS

Societal Action DominatesPersonal Action DominatesLow Freq of InformationLong Lifetime of Product

High Freq of InformationShort Lifetime of Product

NWS Climate Responsibilities

Deliver climate prediction, monitoring , and assessment products and services to support response and preparedness , including related applied research and modeling to improve capabilities

Understand and predict the influences of climate on weather events to deliver seamless prediction

Mission: More short-term response and preparedness (i.e. non permanent actions to respond to and prepare for infrequent threats such as, floods, hurricanes, El Niño).

Early warning; more accurate information; less uncertainty

Shared Strategic Challenges

Improved understanding and ability to simulate and predict the relationship between climate variation and extreme events

NWS monitoring and assessment of variability will provide information to CS assessments of decadal climate change

CS assessments of climate change forcing of variability will provide information to NWS predictions

CS

Provide assessment services and projections, and research to improve predictions and projections

Mission: More long term adaptation and mitigation related (e.g. Are floods affecting a community more frequently? Are they more intense? What actions can be taken?)

CS also addresses mitigation of climate change, a distinct difference between NCS and NWS