covid-19: q&a update - moody's analytics...april 2020 11 …that is intensifying 2020q1...

COVID-19 QampA Update

April 2020Mark Zandi Chief EconomistCris deRitis Deputy Chief EconomistRyan Sweet Senior Director

April 2020 2

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April 2020 3

0102030405060708090

03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

InvestingHiring

of respondents to Moodyrsquos Analytics business survey that are hellip

Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

Businesses Batten Down the Hatches

April 2020 4

-25

-15

-5

5March April May June July August Sep-Dec

Enter Accom Transp Wholesale

Manufact Misc Real Est Energy

Constr Educ Finance Public admin

Prof Other service Info Healthcare

Total

Business Lockdowns Hit HardDeviation from typical US GDP ann ppts by industry 2020


April 2020 5

010002000300040005000600070008000

67 70 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17

267 million cumulativelysince crisis began theweek of March 14th

Unemployment insurance claims ths

Sources Employment amp Training Administration Moodyrsquos Analytics

Unemployment Surges

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs

Sources Wilshire 5000 Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

Wilshire 5000

Value of publicly trade stocks $ tril

April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1

Global balance (L)Global demand (R)Global supply (R)

Global Oil GlutMil barrels per day

Sources International Energy Agency Moodyrsquos Analytics

April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20

Start ups with high propensity to hire chg yr ago

Sources Census Department Moodyrsquos Analytics

Business Start Ups Plunge

Global Recession2

April 2020 10

Unprecedented Global Economic DownturnhellipEconomies in red are expected to suffer a recession in 2020


April 2020 11

hellipThat Is Intensifying

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020January base 27 29 27 26 25 26March base 07 16 35 28 24 19April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42January base 15 22 15 12 23 18March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58January base 72 66 55 58 61 62March base -09 51 114 58 61 44April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01January base 20 24 25 26 11 22March base 13 20 25 26 11 20April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61January base 12 11 11 11 13 10March base 06 05 12 11 14 07April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56January base 14 15 18 14 12 13March base 07 08 12 13 12 08April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China

Real GDP growth annualized change


final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020

A Swoosh Recovery Real GDP change since beginning of recessionhellip

Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

X-axis is qtrs since beginning of recession

13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)S0 (4ile)S4 (96ile)

Output to Collapse With Gradual RecoveryInflation adjusted GDP annualized quarterly growth


April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20

Financial crisisFed slays inflation

1930s Depression

WW II

COVID crisis April 2020

Not Since the Great DepressionUS unemployment rate

Sources Federal Reserve BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)

Unemployment to SpikeU-3 unemployment rate quarterly average


April 2020 16

Job Market Will Struggle to Recover

Sources BLS Moodyrsquos Analytics

05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22

Employment Change (Mil R)Unemployment Rate (L)

April 2020 17

Regional Risk Factors for COVID-19

Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics

Global Interconnectedness (TradeTravel)

Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18

Large Coastal Urban Areas Are Hit HardestWeighted avg Z-score across rankings 0 = metro area average

gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19

Active Listings Collapse Across Major Metros

Sources Realtorcom Moodyrsquos Analytics

-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

PhoenixMilwaukeeSan DiegoSan JosePhiladelphiaCincinnatiDenverRiversideProvidenceSeattle

Active listing count yr ago

April 2020 20

US Real Estate Prices Slump

Sources FHFA Moodyrsquos Analytics

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI

Moodyrsquos Analytics CPPI

Index 2019Q4 = 100 April baseline

April 2020 21

Home Prices Could Fall Fasthellip


FHFA all-transactions index forecasts from March 2020 V2 vintage year ago

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

BaselineScenario 1Scenario 3Scenario 4

April 2020 22

hellipAs Commercial Properties Are Hit From All Sides

Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

Commercial property price index yr ago

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23

House Prices SlumphellipForeclosures Increase

Sources FHFA MBA Moodyrsquos Analytics

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25

FHFA HPI Index 2020Q1 = 100 (L)

Foreclosures startedths SA (R)

April baseline forecast

April 2020 24

Price Declines Vary Throughout the CountryBaseline forecast FHFA purchase-only index for 2021Q1 year ago


Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr

Daily Cases (L) Cumulative Cases (R )

US New Daily Cases Hovering Around 30000Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases

Sources Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Data Repository Moodyrsquos Analytics

April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

Italy S Korea EU USDay 1 DatesItaly Feb 23S Korea Feb 20US March 3 EU Feb 23

Growth Rate of COVID Cases FallingDaily growth of COVID-19 cases days since 100 confirmed cases 3-day MA


April 2020 28

Epidemiological Assumptions

S1 Scenario

bull lt1 mil confirmed US infectionsbull New infections peak in Aprilbull 5-6 case fatality ratebull 8 hospitalization ratebull Infections abate by Junebull Surplus of hospital bedsbull Surplus of ICU bedsbull Surplus of ventilators

Baseline Forecast

bull 1-3 mil confirmed US infectionsbull New infections peak in Maybull 7-11 case fatality ratebull 10 hospitalization ratebull Infections abate by Julybull Surplus of hospital bedsbull Small surplus of ICU bedsbull Small surplus of ventilators

S3 Scenario

bull 5-6 mil confirmed US infectionsbull New infections peak in Junebull 12-16 case fatality ratebull 15 hospitalization ratebull Infections abate by Septemberbull Small deficit of hospital bedsbull Large deficit of ICU bedsbull Large deficit of ventilators

April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa

Federal Reserve Must Shore Up the Firewall

Sources Moodyrsquos Investor Service Moodyrsquos Analytics

Corporate debt outstanding by rating $ bil

April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Up Up and AwayAssets held outright on the Fedrsquos balance sheet $ tril


April 2020 31

Lawmakers Act But Need to Do More

Sources CRFB Moodyrsquos Analytics

Cost of Coronavirus Aid Relief amp Economic Security (CARES) Act

$510 BilLoans amp Loan

Guarantees for Large Firms amp Governments

$377 BilSmall Business Loans amp Grants

$290 BilOne-time Checks

$180 BilHealth

$150 BilAid to States

$72 BilTransp Grants

$280 BilBusiness Tax Cuts

$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets

$32 BilEducation$260 Bil

Unemployment Insurance

$25 BilOther

April 2020 32

Running Out of Fiscal Space


Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields projected output growth and primary balance

-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250

Circle size=Real GDP US$Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratioAs of 2020Q1 (ex COVID-19 policies)

China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany

Turkey S Africa Egypt

Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp

AnswersQuestions Contact us at helpeconomycom

April 2020 35

Coronavirus Liveeventsmoodysiocoronavirus coronavirusmoodyscom

Full webinars schedule eventsmoodysioeventsemeamoodyscom

MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36

Please complete our surveyWe Want to Hear From You

A survey will appear on your screen at the end of our presentation Please take a few moments to complete it

and let us know how we can continue to improve

moodyscom

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Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

April 2020 38

copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC ANDOR ITS CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MATERIALS PRODUCTS SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS (COLLECTIVELY ldquoPUBLICATIONSrdquo) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS MOODYrsquoS INVESTORS SERVICE DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS INVESTORS SERVICE CREDIT RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (ldquoASSESSMENTSrdquo) AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC ANDOR ITS AFFILIATES MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS ASSESSMENTS OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS ASSESSMENTS OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS ASSESSMENTS OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS ASSESSMENTS OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing its Publications

To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING ASSESSMENT OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any credit rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and Moodyrsquos investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moodyrsquos Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moodyrsquos Investors Service and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any credit rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements




Business Lockdowns Hit Hard

Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2

Unprecedented Global Economic Downturnhellip


A Swoosh Recovery

Output to Collapse With Gradual Recovery

Not Since the Great Depression

Unemployment to Spike



Large Coastal Urban Areas Are Hit Hardest






Price Declines Vary Throughout the Country

3

US New Daily Cases Hovering Around 30000

Growth Rate of COVID Cases Falling



Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35

We Want to Hear From You

Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IEUZN

Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local

2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 1004457845 32074829495 31264533681 27331374943 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 21709930613

Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 09921251807 08275731969 18283102998 20834052245 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 15414354913

Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central -00439644998 10125815712 08666505872 06663085528 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central -07102897285

Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central 08490892284 18025324464 14194129347 18384431899 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central 08324283964

Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 04515958007

Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 06602394397 09321922665 12477941124 09915534109 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 07953949612

Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 16040993663 23481470825 29204265431 26058164488 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 21497054247

Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020



Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 05810706316





2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020

blFGDP$_IWRLD Current 1004457845 32074829495 31264533681 27331374943 21709930613

January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769

blFGDP$_US Current 09921251807 08275731969 18283102998 20834052245 15414354913

January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498

blFGDP$_IJPN Current -00439644998 10125815712 08666505872 06663085528 -07102897285

January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316

blFGDP$_IMEX Current 08490892284 18025324464 14194129347 18384431899 08324283964

January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248

blFGDP$_IDEU Current 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 04515958007

January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849

blFGDP$_IGBR Current 06602394397 09321922665 12477941124 09915534109 07953949612

January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734

blFGDP$_IBRA Current 16040993663 23481470825 29204265431 26058164488 21497054247

January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth 2019 2020 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IEUZN Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 24351159023 21709930613 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 30284213704 23417301002 23990821589 16664397734 1004457845 32074829495 31264533681 27331374943

Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Local 24351159023 21709969799 Local 30284213704 23417301002 23990821589 16664397734 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841

2019 24351159023 24351159023 23313535291 23313535291 07546323236 07546323236 -005744748 -005744748 05986711898 05986711898 14029645318 14029645318 11023093516 11023093516 61225476607 61225476607 11735219155 11735219155 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 23313535291 15414354913 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731969 18283102998 20834052245

2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 07546323236 -07102897285 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 26108675557 1928453754 04856673069 -62909369088 -00439644998 10125815712 08666505872 06663085528

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Local 07546323236 -07102894824 Local 26108675557 1928453754 04856673069 -62909369088 -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IEUZN Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central -005744748 08324283964 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006376933 08490892284 18025324464 14194129347 18384431898

Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Central Local Local -005744748 08324259976 Local -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006376933 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067

2019Q1 30284213704 30284213704 30961395462 30961395462 26108675557 26108675557 -03735112979 -03735112979 19164480743 19164480743 25893471992 25893471992 -00237677886 -00237677886 81649173964 81649173964 17986022234 17986022234 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 05986711898 04515958007 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316

2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316

2019Q3 23990821589 23990821589 21035065819 21035065819 04856673069 04856673069 00533779554 00533779554 07878544616 07878544616 19881876478 19881876478 24592196357 24592196357 52959086245 52959086245 10998947573 10998947573 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 14029645318 07953949612 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394397 09321922665 12477941124 09915534109

2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456

2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 -07976031984 -07976031984 13072031191 13072029534 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 11023093516 21497054247 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993663 23481470825 29204265431 26058164488

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796 8243216 8243216 13849193065 13849201636 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 61225476607 52185934247 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 11735219155 10459481224 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 023526783 13072031191 12804875265 13849193065 13600290043

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Local 11735219155 10459483101 Local 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 023526783 13072029534 12804882285 13849201636 13600288501

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IEUZN

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central 2019 2020 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4

2019 24572687311 23378491108 12088413762 00063845975 05719546493 13152063114 11023093516 61482608188 12233338671 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 24572687311 26327068769 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539

2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574 61879167766 13174813176 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 23378491108 18444415498 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 21981110559 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 12088413762 05810706316 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Central 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central 00063845975 12256906248 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Central -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IEUZN Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 05719546493 10222414849 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Central 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 13152063114 10119832734 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643901326 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728

2019Q1 29451354542 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 78364853704 17754221786 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 11023093516 22038851574 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579

2019Q2 22599606628 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52562170871 07431449429 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 61482608188 61879167766 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 78364853704 52562170871 49639920827 60986346254 71996449976 66464447608 5516591118 57641098471

2019Q3 24139793469 21035065819 17999622217 00533779554 03371786209 16777739007 24592196357 49639920827 09419706317 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 12233338671 13174813176 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 17754221786 07431449429 09419706317 10559422143 13970624004 1533923729 18296441479 14318726638

2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217 5516591118 18296441479 blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_IWRLD March base 30284213704 23417301002 23990821589 16664397734 1004457845 32074829495 31264533681 27331374943 24351159023 21709930613

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371

blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_US March base 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731969 18283102998 20834052245 23313535291 15414354913

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth January base 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 21981110559 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 23378491108 18444415498

cvpFGDP$_IWRLD cvpFGDP$_US cvpFGDP$_IJPN cvpFGDP$_IMEX cvpFGDP$_IDEU cvpFGDP$_IGBR cvpFGDP$_IBRA cvpFGDP$_ICHN cvpFGDP$_IEUZN Pandemic 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20798192573 -07791884072 -28691380159 -19527497926 -02389473664 23303837447 -02321135313

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central blFGDP$_IJPN blFGDP$_IJPN March base 26108675557 1928453754 04856673069 -62909369088 -00439644998 10125815712 08666505872 06663085528 07546323236 -07102897285

2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629

2019Q3 24591371048 21035065819 17999622217 00533779554 03371786209 16777739007 24592196357 52959086245 10998947573 blFGDP$_IMEX blFGDP$_IMEX March base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006376933 08490892284 18025324464 14194129347 18384431898 -005744748 08324283964

2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769

2020Q2 -32466569486 -28691380159 -22605799716 -3940399 -26172511227 -07999236088 -68183843711 -87426651892 00496751219 blFGDP$_IDEU blFGDP$_IDEU March base 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 05986711898 04515958007

2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775

blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IGBR March base 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394397 09321922665 12477941124 09915534109 14029645318 07953949612

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth January base 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643901326 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 13152063114 10119832734

cvpFGDP$_IWRLD cvpFGDP$_US cvpFGDP$_IJPN cvpFGDP$_IMEX cvpFGDP$_IDEU cvpFGDP$_IGBR cvpFGDP$_IBRA cvpFGDP$_ICHN cvpFGDP$_IEUZN Pandemic 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643894657 06533113941 -07999236088 -02333238672 02507136905 13152062693 02846413002

Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IBRA March base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993663 23481470825 29204265431 26058164488 11023093516 21497054247

2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028

blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_ICHN March base 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471 61225476607 52185934247

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020 January base 78364853704 52562170871 49639920827 60986346254 71996449976 66464447608 5516591118 57641098471 61482608188 61879167766

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IWRLD Central 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IWRLD Central 2445594268 -00205231371 Pandemic 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -18145761976 -87426651892 -00254038564 6392235324 61225476607 01019172133

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20798192573 -07791884072 -28691380159 -19527497926 -02389473664 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_US Central 23303837447 -02321135313 blFGDP$_IEUZN blFGDP$_IEUZN March base 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 023526783 13072031191 12804875265 13849193065 13600290043 11735219155 10459481224

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IJPN Central 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IJPN Central 12079598883 -13007210629 January base 17754221786 07431449429 09419706317 10559422143 13970624004 1533923729 18296441479 14318726638 12233338671 13174813176

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IMEX Central -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IMEX Central -00574475466 -15669083769 Pandemic 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 03752442079 03759520935 00496751219 -03786332106 08103230917 11823671661 03531495954

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IDEU Central 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IDEU Central 05585261716 -06226209775

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IGBR Central 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643894657 06533113941 -07999236088 -02333238672 02507136905 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IGBR Central 13152062693 02846413002

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IBRA Central -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IBRA Central 11023091785 -21884237028

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_ICHN Central 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -18145761976 -87426651892 -00254038564 6392235324 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_ICHN Central 61225476607 01019172133

Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IEUZN Central 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 03752442079 03759520935 00496751219 -03786332106 08103230917 Transform Annual Growth cvpFGDP$_IEUZN Central 11823671661 03531495954

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Pandemic 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20798192573 -07791884072 -28691380159 -19527497926 -02389473664 23303837447 -02321135313

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IJPN Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IMEX Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IDEU Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Pandemic 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643894657 06533113941 -07999236088 -02333238672 02507136905 13152062693 02846413002

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Pandemic 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -18145761976 -87426651892 -00254038564 6392235324 61225476607 01019172133

Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Pandemic 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 03752442079 03759520935 00496751219 -03786332106 08103230917 11823671661 03531495954

January

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IEUZN Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 24572687311 26327068769

Central Central Central Central Central Central Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 21981110559 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 23378491108 18444415498

2019Q1 29451354542 30961395462 78364853704 -00237677886 24823649001 17754221786 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 78364853704 52562170871 49639920827 60986346254 71996449976 66464447608 5516591118 57641098471 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 61482608188 61879167766

2019Q2 22599606628 20138186099 52562170871 19153104432 -0739135003 07431449429 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 11023093516 22038851574

2019Q3 24139793469 21035065819 49639920827 24592196357 16777739007 09419706317 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 24823649001 -0739135003 16777739007 06643901326 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 13152063114 10119832734

2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 60986346254 1884625331 06643901326 10559422143 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 17754221786 07431449429 09419706317 10559422143 13970624004 1533923729 18296441479 14318726638 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 12233338671 13174813176

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth 1

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IEUZN 1

Central Central Central Central Central Central 1

2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2



2019Q1 30161892099 30961395462 81649173964 -00237677886 24823649001 17986022234 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -01693269995 114621259414 8243216 57641098471 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 61225476607 53847938302




2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March



Central Central Central Central Central Central Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 10792377387 -03629441718 17452447165 24113300406 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 23313535291 13471543008

2019Q1 30435599871 30961395462 81649173964 0 25893471992 17986022234 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -0916830864 50939502296 114125001473 57641098471 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_ICHN Central 61225476607 44051562126

2019Q2 23558387781 20138186099 52832664449 21088484653 -04326963218 06358352459 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 0 21088484653 25309159859 20368839529 13204907937 19612066518 24768647224 25597150807 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 11327391421 19967072205



2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic


blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IEUZN Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 30435599871 23555223464 24368647931 16948755801 -64626256402 -01452879884 364230161 31919100165 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IWRLD Central 24487184631 -02913403409

Central Central Central Central Central Central Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 -12649625419 -3866587391 -05250627901 12952466239 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_US Central 23313535291 -02697321313


2019Q2 23555223464 20138186099 52832664449 21088484653 -04326963218 06358352459 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 0 21088484653 25309159859 20368839529 -49699609713 -59050479329 -14301609311 29311858824 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IBRA Central 11327391421 -15810356391

2019Q3 24368647931 21035065819 52959086245 25309159859 19881876478 10998947573 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 0 -38926164109 -50898073001 -24773578171 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IGBR Central 14029645318 -13025752939

2019Q4 16948755801 20951800832 5081292422 20368839529 00955519539 023526783 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 17986022234 06358352459 10998947573 023526783 -56773778158 -74279753282 -0805227426 16043293021 Transform Annual Growth blFGDP$_IEUZN Central 11735219155 -26504236812

2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021

Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth Transform Annual Growth

blFGDP$_IWRLD blFGDP$_US blFGDP$_ICHN blFGDP$_IBRA blFGDP$_IGBR blFGDP$_IEUZN

Central Central Central Central Central Central

2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020

World January base 29 23 24 25 27 29 27 26 25 26

March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00

United States January base 31 20 21 22 15 22 15 12 23 18

March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02

Japan January base 26 20 18 -11 05 10 08 05 12 06

March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13

Mexico January base -04 -02 01 10 10 21 21 22 00 12

March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16

Germany January base 19 -10 03 07 10 17 20 15 06 10

March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06

United Kingdom January base 25 -07 17 07 12 11 11 11 13 10

March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03

Brazil January base -00 19 25 19 20 24 25 26 11 22

March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22

China January base 78 53 50 61 72 66 55 58 61 62

March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01

Euro Zone January base 18 07 09 11 14 15 18 14 12 13

March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04

Virus Changes the Outlook

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020

World January base 27 29 27 26 25 26

February base 14 36 31 26 25 24

March prelim base 07 16 35 28 24 19

Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03

United States January base 15 22 15 12 23 18

February base 12 18 18 14 23 17

March prelim base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03

China January base 72 66 55 58 61 62

February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17

Brazil January base 20 24 25 26 11 22

February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16

United Kingdom January base 12 11 11 11 13 10

February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13

Euro Zone January base 14 15 18 14 12 13

February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27

Global Recession Under Pandemic Scenario

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 2


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Program Schedule

April 2020 3

0102030405060708090

03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

InvestingHiring




April 2020 4

-25

-15

-5






Total



April 2020 5

010002000300040005000600070008000

67 70 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17




Unemployment Surges

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs


Wilshire 5000


April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 3

0102030405060708090

03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

InvestingHiring




April 2020 4

-25

-15

-5






Total



April 2020 5

010002000300040005000600070008000

67 70 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17




Unemployment Surges

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs


Wilshire 5000


April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 4

-25

-15

-5






Total



April 2020 5

010002000300040005000600070008000

67 70 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17




Unemployment Surges

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs


Wilshire 5000


April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 5

010002000300040005000600070008000

67 70 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17




Unemployment Surges

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs


Wilshire 5000


April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 6

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Smaller Nest Eggs


Wilshire 5000


April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 7

85

90

95

100

105

110

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1




April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 8

-30-25-20-15-10-505

10





Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

Global Recession2

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 10



April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 11



Brazil

United Kingdom

Euro Zone

World

United States

China



final table (3-19)

final table

table

raw 3

raw 2

raw

mnemonics

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN




2020Q1 1004457845 10044578163 09921251807 09921251807 -00439644998 -00439645008 08490892284 08490892282 02987390528 02987390528 06602394397 06602394358 16040993663 16040993566 2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101

2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214

2020Q3 31264533681 3126453553 18283102998 18283103389 08666505872 08666514849 14194129347 14194048288 08334022824 08334022824 12477941124 12477943726 29204265431 29204266796

2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431899 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


Local 10044578163 32074831252 3126453553 27331990841 Local 21709969799


Local 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228 Local 15414354614


Local -00439645008 1012581938 08666514849 06663096538 Local -07102894824


Local 08490892282 18025300718 14194048288 18384280067 Local 08324259976


Local 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316 Local 04515958007


Local 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456 Local 07953950128


Local 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097 Local 21497054504




2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 2020 26327068769 18444415498 05810706316 12256906248 10222414849 10119832734 22038851574

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 08024032016 20970805994 19893661165 10681874364 25048602217

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020








2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020


January 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 26327068769


January 14854478326 21637882274 15212644402 1240462 18444415498


January 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 05810706316


January 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 12256906248


January 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 10222414849


January 12466257645 11263116978 10681874364 10996765728 10119832734


January 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 22038851574





2020 21709930613 21709969799 15414354913 15414354614 -07102897285 -07102894824 08324283964 08324259976 04515958007 04515958007 07953949612 07953950128 21497054247 21497054504 52185934247 52185934247 10459481224 10459483101 Local 23313535291 15414354614 Local 30961395462 20138186099 21035065819 20951800832 09921251807 08275731787 18283103389 20834047228






2019Q2 23417301002 23417301002 20138186099 20138186099 1928453754 1928453754 -02398100266 -02398100266 -09667798486 -09667798486 -04326963218 -04326963218 19153104432 19153104432 52832664449 52832664449 06358352459 06358352459 Local 05986711898 04515958007 Local 19164480743 -09667798486 07878544616 01119058205 02987390528 07063814764 08334022824 13146543316


2019Q4 16664397734 16664397734 20951800832 20951800832 -62909369088 -62909369088 -00006376933 -00006376933 01119058205 01119058205 00955519539 00955519539 1884625331 1884625331 5081292422 5081292422 023526783 023526783 Local 14029645318 07953950128 Local 25893471992 -04326963218 19881876478 00955519539 06602394358 09321922955 12477943726 09915536456


2020Q2 32074829495 32074831252 08275731969 08275731787 10125815712 1012581938 18025324464 18025300718 07063814764 07063814764 09321922665 09321922955 23481470825 23481471214 114621259414 114621259414 12804875265 12804882285 Local 11023093516 21497054504 Local -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 16040993566 23481471214 29204266796 26058165097


2020Q4 27331374943 27331990841 20834052245 20834047228 06663085528 06663096538 18384431898 18384280067 13146543316 13146543316 09915534109 09915536456 26058164488 26058165097 57641098471 57641098471 13600290043 13600288501 Local 61225476607 52185934247 Local 81649173964 52832664449 52959086245 5081292422 -07976031984 114621259414 8243216 57641098471














2019Q4 24684818352 21981110559 -10982174064 10252658827 06979229504 06643901326 1884625331 60986346254 10559422143

2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 04765669035 10081169396 10172628117 12466257645 2035391119 71996449976 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 10099936598 20906101983 16794358524 11263116978 23545717496 66464447608 1533923729 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 04808646914 21918401913 14932062066 10996765728 25545421579 57641098471 14318726638 January base 29451354542 22599606628 24139793469 24684818352 272065679 29246961109 26772534017 2610698539 24572687311 26327068769

Pandemic 30159788147 22796482557 24591371048 20779599357 -0821068591 -32466569486 -09134483601 14536598724 2445594268 -00205231371





2019Q1 30159788147 30961395462 26155633695 -03735112979 18878382403 24823649001 -00237677886 81649173964 17986022234 January base 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -10982174064 04765669035 10099936598 08024032016 04808646914 12088413762 05810706316

2019Q2 22796482557 20138186099 20471054063 -02398100266 -09668474617 -0739135003 19153104432 52832664449 06358352459 Pandemic 26155633695 20471054063 17999622217 -11119794418 -25355286898 -22605799716 -28490450305 -02896175105 12079598883 -13007210629


2019Q4 20779599357 20798192573 -11119794418 -00006387604 0483210256 06643894657 18846225607 5081292422 03752442079 January base -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 10252658827 10081169396 20906101983 20970805994 21918401913 00063845975 12256906248

2020Q1 -0821068591 -07791884072 -25355286898 -19062201837 -0047198012 06533113941 -6057333778 -18145761976 03759520935 Pandemic -03735112979 -02398100266 00533779554 -00006387604 -19062201837 -3940399 -21819164585 -09962562461 -00574475466 -15669083769


2020Q3 -09134483601 -19527497926 -28490450305 -21819164585 -12905609117 -02333238672 -15904255744 -00254038564 -03786332106 January base 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 06979229504 10172628117 16794358524 19893661165 14932062066 05719546493 10222414849

2020Q4 14536598724 -02389473664 -02896175105 -09962562461 -04107398878 02507136905 16096256256 6392235324 08103230917 Pandemic 18878382403 -09668474617 03371786209 0483210256 -0047198012 -26172511227 -12905609117 -04107398878 05585261716 -06226209775





2019 2445594268 23303837447 12079598883 -00574475466 05585261716 13152062693 11023091785 61225476607 11823671661 January base -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 1884625331 2035391119 23545717496 25048602217 25545421579 11023093516 22038851574

2020 -00205231371 -02321135313 -13007210629 -15669083769 -06226209775 02846413002 -21884237028 01019172133 03531495954 Pandemic -00237677886 19153104432 24592196357 18846225607 -6057333778 -68183843711 -15904255744 16096256256 11023091785 -21884237028












2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020










January








2020Q1 272065679 14854478326 71996449976 2035391119 12466257645 13970624004

2020Q2 29246961109 21637882274 66464447608 23545717496 11263116978 1533923729

2020Q3 26772534017 15212644402 5516591118 25048602217 10681874364 18296441479 1

2020Q4 2610698539 1240462 57641098471 25545421579 10996765728 14318726638 1

1




2019 24572687311 23378491108 61482608188 11023093516 13152063114 12233338671

2020 26327068769 18444415498 61879167766 22038851574 10119832734 13174813176

February








2020Q1 14267975445 11808986302 -01693269995 2035391119 10679572806 17050563006

2020Q2 35673397653 18383570453 114621259414 23545717496 1302977792 16351220412

2020Q3 3130360587 18399532081 8243216 25048602217 10712364192 16699656597 1

2020Q4 26477025015 14396669192 57641098471 25545421579 1131447151 14255519771 1

1




2019Q1 24535720549 23303837447 61225476607 11023093516 13152062849 11823671661

2019Q2 24438471492 1737510215 53847938302 22038851574 10028602649 1277684485

March








2020Q1 07134330493 10792377387 -0916830864 13204907937 06010071267 06533523093

2020Q2 16088352258 -03629441718 50939502296 19612066518 04808646914 07718419397

2020Q3 35025062659 17452447165 114125001473 24768647224 12479154327 12075824693 1

2020Q4 28314211454 24113300406 57641098471 25597150807 11215100886 13342808024 1

1




2019 24493075475 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 18629862191 13471543008 44051562126 19967072205 07039544518 0763453073

Pandemic








2020Q1 -64626256402 -12649625419 -271595817928 -49699609713 0 -56773778158

2020Q2 -01452879884 -3866587391 213939810451 -59050479329 -38926164109 -74279753282

2020Q3 364230161 -05250627901 288661390234 -14301609311 -50898073001 -0805227426

2020Q4 31919100165 12952466239 126527577187 29311858824 -24773578171 16043293021




2019 24487184631 23313535291 61225476607 11327391421 14029645318 11735219155

2020 -02913403409 -02697321313 16783204982 -15810356391 -13025752939 -26504236812

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 30 23 24 17 10 32 31 27 24 22

Pandemic 30 23 25 21 -08 -32 -09 15 24 -00


March base 31 20 21 21 10 08 18 21 23 15

Pandemic 31 20 21 21 -08 -29 -20 -02 23 -02


March base 26 19 05 -63 -00 10 09 07 08 -07

Pandemic 26 20 18 -11 -25 -23 -28 -03 12 -13


March base -04 -02 01 -00 08 18 14 18 -01 08

Pandemic -04 -02 01 -00 -19 -39 -22 -10 -01 -16


March base 19 -10 08 01 03 07 08 13 06 05

Pandemic 19 -10 03 05 -00 -26 -13 -04 06 -06


March base 26 -04 20 01 07 09 12 10 14 08

Pandemic 25 -07 17 07 07 -08 -02 03 13 03


March base -00 19 25 19 16 23 29 26 11 21

Pandemic -00 19 25 19 -61 -68 -16 16 11 -22


March base 82 53 53 51 -08 115 82 58 61 52

Pandemic 82 53 53 51 -18 -87 -00 64 61 01


March base 18 06 11 02 13 13 14 14 12 10

Pandemic 18 06 11 04 04 00 -04 08 12 04


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


February base 14 36 31 26 25 24


Pandemic -65 -01 36 32 24 -03


February base 12 18 18 14 23 17


Pandemic -13 -39 -05 13 23 -03


February base -02 115 82 58 61 54

March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

Pandemic -272 214 289 127 61 17


February base 20 24 25 26 11 22


Pandemic -50 -59 -14 29 11 -16


February base 11 13 11 11 13 10

March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

Pandemic 00 -39 -51 -25 14 -13


February base 17 16 17 14 12 13


Pandemic -57 -74 -08 16 12 -27


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2019 2020


March base 07 16 35 28 24 19

April base -109 -221 199 45 24 -42


March base 11 -04 17 24 23 13

April base -81 -302 166 04 23 -58


March base -09 51 114 58 61 44

April base -290 149 277 130 61 -01


March base 13 20 25 26 11 20

April base -88 -243 04 70 11 -61


March base 06 05 12 11 14 07

April base -30 -367 258 58 14 -56


March base 07 08 12 13 12 08

April base -148 -400 593 16 12 -70

April 2020 12

-10-8-6-4-202468

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1980 1990 20012007 2020




13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

13April 2020

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

19 20 21 22 23 24




April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20


1930s Depression

WW II




15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

15April 2020

02468

101214161820

19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile)

S0 (4ile)

S4 (96ile)



April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 16



05 04 06 06 04

-171

81

-06 -03

00 10 13 14 14 13 12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19 20 21 22


April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 17


Virus Exposure

Commodities

Demographics


Tourism

FinanceInvestment

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 18


gt025

-025 to lt0lt-025

0 to lt025


April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 19



-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0



April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 20



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

19 20 21 22

FHFA HPI



April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 21




-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 22




-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 23



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

05 10 15 20 25




April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 24



Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

Known Unknowns3

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 26

01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

01-M

ar

04-M

ar

07-M

ar

10-M

ar

13-M

ar

16-M

ar

19-M

ar

22-M

ar

25-M

ar

28-M

ar

31-M

ar

03-A

pr

06-A

pr

09-A

pr

12-A

pr

15-A

pr

18-A

pr

21-A

pr

24-A

pr




April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60




April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 28


S1 Scenario


Baseline Forecast


S3 Scenario


April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 29

010002000300040005000600070008000

95 00 05 10 15

C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa




April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 30

0123456789

10

03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25



April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 31








$180 BilHealth




$45 BilFEMA

$42 BilSafety Nets



$25 BilOther

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 32




-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250


China

US

Japan

ItalyFrance Greece

Russia

UK

Argentina

Germany


Spain

IndiaBrazil

Mexico

Canada

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 33

US Risk Matrix


April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 34

Questions amp


April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 35



MoodyrsquosWebinars

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 36




moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

moodyscom










April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

April 2020 38



















Unemployment Surges

Smaller Nest Eggs

Global Oil Glut


2



A Swoosh Recovery













3





Up Up and Away



US Risk Matrix

Slide Number 34

Slide Number 35


Slide Number 37

Slide Number 38

BLFGDP$_IWRLD

BLFGDP$_US

BLFGDP$_ICHN

BLFGDP$_IBRA

BLFGDP$_IGBR

BLFGDP$_IEUZN

	Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth													Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth			Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth

	blFGDP$_IWRLD			blFGDP$_US			blFGDP$_IJPN			blFGDP$_IMEX			blFGDP$_IDEU			blFGDP$_IGBR			blFGDP$_IBRA													blFGDP$_IWRLD			blFGDP$_US			blFGDP$_IJPN			blFGDP$_IMEX			blFGDP$_IDEU		blFGDP$_IGBR		blFGDP$_IBRA		blFGDP$_ICHN		blFGDP$_IEUZN

	Central		Local		Central		Local		Central		Local		Central		Local		Central		Local		Central		Local		Central		Local												Central		Local		Central		Local	Central	Local		Central	Local	Central		Local	Central	Local	Central	Local	Central	Local	Central	Local

2020Q1		1004457845		10044578163		09921251807		09921251807		-00439644998		-00439645008		08490892284		08490892282		02987390528		02987390528		06602394397		06602394358		16040993663		16040993566											2020		21709930613		21709969799		15414354913	15414354614	-07102897285		-07102894824	08324283964	08324259976		04515958007	04515958007	07953949612	07953950128	21497054247	21497054504	52185934247	52185934247	10459481224	10459483101

2020Q2		32074829495		32074831252		08275731969		08275731787		10125815712		1012581938		18025324464		18025300718		07063814764		07063814764		09321922665		09321922955		23481470825		23481471214

2020Q3		31264533681		3126453553		18283102998		18283103389		08666505872		08666514849		14194129347		14194048288		08334022824		08334022824		12477941124		12477943726		29204265431		29204266796

2020Q4		27331374943		27331990841		20834052245		20834047228		06663085528		06663096538		18384431899		18384280067		13146543316		13146543316		09915534109		09915536456		26058164488		26058165097

			2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4																						2020

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IWRLD		Central		1004457845		32074829495		31264533681		27331374943																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IWRLD		Central		21709930613

		Local		10044578163		32074831252		3126453553		27331990841																					Local		21709969799

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_US		Central		09921251807		08275731969		18283102998		20834052245																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_US		Central		15414354913

		Local		09921251807		08275731787		18283103389		20834047228																					Local		15414354614

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IJPN		Central		-00439644998		10125815712		08666505872		06663085528																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IJPN		Central		-07102897285

		Local		-00439645008		1012581938		08666514849		06663096538																					Local		-07102894824

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IMEX		Central		08490892284		18025324464		14194129347		18384431899																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IMEX		Central		08324283964

		Local		08490892282		18025300718		14194048288		18384280067																					Local		08324259976

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IDEU		Central		02987390528		07063814764		08334022824		13146543316																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IDEU		Central		04515958007

		Local		02987390528		07063814764		08334022824		13146543316																					Local		04515958007

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IGBR		Central		06602394397		09321922665		12477941124		09915534109																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IGBR		Central		07953949612

		Local		06602394358		09321922955		12477943726		09915536456																					Local		07953950128

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IBRA		Central		16040993663		23481470825		29204265431		26058164488																			Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IBRA		Central		21497054247

		Local		16040993566		23481471214		29204266796		26058165097																					Local		21497054504

	Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth																	Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth		Transform Annual Growth

	blFGDP$_IWRLD		blFGDP$_US		blFGDP$_IJPN		blFGDP$_IMEX		blFGDP$_IDEU		blFGDP$_IGBR		blFGDP$_IBRA																	blFGDP$_IWRLD		blFGDP$_US		blFGDP$_IJPN		blFGDP$_IMEX		blFGDP$_IDEU		blFGDP$_IGBR		blFGDP$_IBRA

	Central		Central		Central		Central		Central		Central		Central																	Central		Central		Central		Central		Central		Central		Central

2020Q1		272065679		14854478326		04765669035		10081169396		10172628117		12466257645		2035391119																2020		26327068769		18444415498		05810706316		12256906248		10222414849		10119832734		22038851574

2020Q2		29246961109		21637882274		10099936598		20906101983		16794358524		11263116978		23545717496

2020Q3		26772534017		15212644402		08024032016		20970805994		19893661165		10681874364		25048602217

2020Q4		2610698539		1240462		04808646914		21918401913		14932062066		10996765728		25545421579

			2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4																				2020

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IWRLD		Central		272065679		29246961109		26772534017		2610698539																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IWRLD		Central		26327068769

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_US		Central		14854478326		21637882274		15212644402		1240462																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_US		Central		18444415498

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IJPN		Central		04765669035		10099936598		08024032016		04808646914																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IJPN		Central		05810706316

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IMEX		Central		10081169396		20906101983		20970805994		21918401913																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IMEX		Central		12256906248

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IDEU		Central		10172628117		16794358524		19893661165		14932062066																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IDEU		Central		10222414849

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IGBR		Central		12466257645		11263116978		10681874364		10996765728																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IGBR		Central		10119832734

Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IBRA		Central		2035391119		23545717496		25048602217		25545421579																	Transform Annual Growth		blFGDP$_IBRA		Central		22038851574

		2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4		2020

blFGDP$_IWRLD		Current		1004457845		32074829495		31264533681		27331374943		21709930613

	January		272065679		29246961109		26772534017		2610698539		26327068769

blFGDP$_US		Current		09921251807		08275731969		18283102998		20834052245		15414354913

	January		14854478326		21637882274		15212644402		1240462		18444415498

blFGDP$_IJPN		Current		-00439644998		10125815712		08666505872		06663085528		-07102897285

	January		04765669035		10099936598		08024032016		04808646914		05810706316

blFGDP$_IMEX		Current		08490892284		18025324464		14194129347		18384431899		08324283964

	January		10081169396		20906101983		20970805994		21918401913		12256906248

blFGDP$_IDEU		Current		02987390528		07063814764		08334022824		13146543316		04515958007

	January		10172628117		16794358524		19893661165		14932062066		10222414849

blFGDP$_IGBR		Current		06602394397		09321922665		12477941124		09915534109		07953949612

	January		12466257645		11263116978		10681874364		10996765728		10119832734

blFGDP$_IBRA		Current		16040993663		23481470825		29204265431		26058164488		21497054247

	January		2035391119		23545717496		25048602217		25545421579		22038851574

		2019Q1		2019Q2		2019Q3		2019Q4		2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4		2019		2020

World		January base		29		23		24		25		27		29		27		26		25		26

	March base		30		23		24		17		10		32		31		27		24		22

	Pandemic		30		23		25		21		-08		-32		-09		15		24		-00

United States		January base		31		20		21		22		15		22		15		12		23		18

	March base		31		20		21		21		10		08		18		21		23		15

	Pandemic		31		20		21		21		-08		-29		-20		-02		23		-02

Japan		January base		26		20		18		-11		05		10		08		05		12		06

	March base		26		19		05		-63		-00		10		09		07		08		-07

	Pandemic		26		20		18		-11		-25		-23		-28		-03		12		-13

Mexico		January base		-04		-02		01		10		10		21		21		22		00		12

	March base		-04		-02		01		-00		08		18		14		18		-01		08

	Pandemic		-04		-02		01		-00		-19		-39		-22		-10		-01		-16

Germany		January base		19		-10		03		07		10		17		20		15		06		10

	March base		19		-10		08		01		03		07		08		13		06		05

	Pandemic		19		-10		03		05		-00		-26		-13		-04		06		-06

United Kingdom		January base		25		-07		17		07		12		11		11		11		13		10

	March base		26		-04		20		01		07		09		12		10		14		08

	Pandemic		25		-07		17		07		07		-08		-02		03		13		03

Brazil		January base		-00		19		25		19		20		24		25		26		11		22

	March base		-00		19		25		19		16		23		29		26		11		21

	Pandemic		-00		19		25		19		-61		-68		-16		16		11		-22

China		January base		78		53		50		61		72		66		55		58		61		62

	March base		82		53		53		51		-08		115		82		58		61		52

	Pandemic		82		53		53		51		-18		-87		-00		64		61		01

Euro Zone		January base		18		07		09		11		14		15		18		14		12		13

	March base		18		06		11		02		13		13		14		14		12		10

	Pandemic		18		06		11		04		04		00		-04		08		12		04

	Virus Changes the Outlook

		2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4		2019		2020

World		January base		27		29		27		26		25		26

	February base		14		36		31		26		25		24

	March prelim base		07		16		35		28		24		19

	Pandemic		-65		-01		36		32		24		-03

United States		January base		15		22		15		12		23		18

	February base		12		18		18		14		23		17

	March prelim base		11		-04		17		24		23		13

	Pandemic		-13		-39		-05		13		23		-03

China		January base		72		66		55		58		61		62

	February base		-02		115		82		58		61		54

	March base		-09		51		114		58		61		44

	Pandemic		-272		214		289		127		61		17

Brazil		January base		20		24		25		26		11		22

	February base		20		24		25		26		11		22

	March prelim base		13		20		25		26		11		20

	Pandemic		-50		-59		-14		29		11		-16

United Kingdom		January base		12		11		11		11		13		10

	February base		11		13		11		11		13		10

	March base		06		05		12		11		14		07

	Pandemic		00		-39		-51		-25		14		-13

Euro Zone		January base		14		15		18		14		12		13

	February base		17		16		17		14		12		13

	March prelim base		07		08		12		13		12		08

	Pandemic		-57		-74		-08		16		12		-27

Global Recession Under Pandemic Scenario


		2020Q1		2020Q2		2020Q3		2020Q4		2019		2020

World		January base		27		29		27		26		25		26

	March base		07		16		35		28		24		19

	April base		-109		-221		199		45		24		-42

United States		January base		15		22		15		12		23		18

	March base		11		-04		17		24		23		13

	April base		-81		-302		166		04		23		-58

China		January base		72		66		55		58		61		62

	March base		-09		51		114		58		61		44

	April base		-290		149		277		130		61		-01

Brazil		January base		20		24		25		26		11		22

	March base		13		20		25		26		11		20

	April base		-88		-243		04		70		11		-61

United Kingdom		January base		12		11		11		11		13		10

	March base		06		05		12		11		14		07

	April base		-30		-367		258		58		14		-56

Euro Zone		January base		14		15		18		14		12		13

	March base		07		08		12		13		12		08

	April base		-148		-400		593		16		12		-70

covid-19: q&a update - moody's analytics...april 2020 11 …that is intensifying 2020q1...

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