COVID-19 Modeling December 1, 2020

Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov

2Sources: State Health Departments & CTV National News (Quebec)

Regional Case Growth

Positive Cases Nov. 24th to Nov. 30th

3.59% Increase in New Confirmed Cases

Positive Cases Nov. 17th to Nov. 23rd

89,149 92,348

3

Northeast Case Growth By Week Since October 12, 2020

Sources: State Health Departments & CTV National News (Quebec)

12.68%+10,027

5.73%+1,374

5.78%+1,467

21.65%+5,809

23.29%+7,600

34.04%+13,696

46.60%+25,134

3.59%+3,199

4

91,132Northeast Case Growth By Week

Since March 16, 202092,348

Sources: State Health Departments & CTV National News (Quebec)

5

Forecasted 29% increase in new cases over the next four weeks

Source: Johns Hopkins University Data & Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 30, 2020 (New England & New York) 5

Thanksgiving data issues

Home & Workplace Mobility

6

20%Decrease

27%Increase

7

Mitigation measures announced

8Source: Vermont Department of Health (week calculated as Tuesday to Monday)

Vermonters Diagnosed with COVID-19 by Week

9

Day 10 Day 14New Mitigation

Measures

Day 1

Source: Vermont Department of Health

Thanksgiving 2020 vs 2019 Out-of-State Travel into Vermont

10

Source: US Transportation Safety Administration; Burlington International Airport (measured Sunday to Saturday of Thanksgiving Week) 11

TSA Screening Nationwide

BTV International Airport Passengers

60% Reduction 77% Reduction

U.S. and Vermont Air TravelThanksgiving Week 2020 & 2019

12Source: Vermont Department of Health, December 1, 2020

8.60%+359

12.61%+526

2.44%+102

5.80%+242

4.70%+196

4.79%+200

3.45%+144

10.79%+450

46.81%+1953

Over 46% of all Vermont Covid-19 Cases Have Been Reported in November

13Source: Oliver Wyman Active Case Estimate - November 29, 2020

14

13 Million+ U.S. CasesDecember 1, 2020

Source: Johns Hopkins University, December 1, 2020

15Source: Johns Hopkins University, December 1, 2020

Over 30% of all US Covid-19 Cases Have Been Reported in November

1.42%+192,152

6.54%+884,047 5.31%

+718,241

6.17%+834,359

14.22%+1,922,730 10.83%

+1,464,676 8.89%+1,201,822

14.16%+1,914,993

32.46%+4,389,178

Source: Covid Tracking Project, November 30, 2020

U.S. Case Growth

U.S. Hospitalization Growth

17Source: Covid Tracking Project, November 30, 2020

U.S. Covid-19 Deaths

18Source: Covid Tracking Project, November 30, 2020

19

Regional Heat Map

20

Active Cases per Million

0 31,8255,000

Regional Map as of November 30th

1) Providence (RI): 15,071

2) Kent (RI): 13,125

3) Chemung (NY): 12,327

4) Allegany (NY): 11,428

5) Erie (NY): 11,034

6) Essex (MA): 10,282

7) Genesee (NY): 10,098

8) Bristol (RI): 9,445

9) Putnam (NY): 9,377

10) Richmond (NY): 9,316

New York & New England Ranking by Active Case Per Million

1

234

5

6

7

8

9

10

22

RESTART VERMONT

1. Syndromic Surveillance2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity

Reopening Metrics

23

Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance● Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis● Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days

Source: Vermont Department of Health—December 1, 2020 *Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed24

Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates ● Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)● Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to <30% open ICU beds

Source: Vermont Department of Health—December 1, 202025

Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests● Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case● Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results

Source: Vermont Department of Health—December 1, 202026

Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%

Source: Vermont Department of Health—December 1, 2020

27

Source: Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 30, 2020 28

Source: Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 30, 2020 29

Vermont Testing

Source: Vermont Department of Health—December 1, 2020; results reported to VDH daily

*Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed30

Drop following Thanksgiving holiday and campus closures

Vermont Flu Vaccine Data

31

32Source: Vermont Department of Health & ADS; Immunization Registry; Measured from July 1 to November 22, 2019 & 2020

211,528Year to Date

217,299*Year to Date

2019 Actual

2020 Goal

Note: Due to delays in data reporting flu vaccination data is underreported*

66.86%* to 2020 goal

*Data from UVMHN incomplete or delayed; underreported by 25-33%

33

K-12 & Higher Education Update

33

34

Covid-19 Cases in K-12 Public Schools Across Northern New England

Vermont128 Cases (+18)

84 Schools (+10)

New Hampshire680 Cases (+106)283 Schools (+35)

Maine348 Cases (+35)133 Schools (+7)

Source: VT and NH K-12 Dashboards; ME public reporting

35

Vermont Higher Education Restart Weekly Covid-19 Testing Among Students

Source: Vermont Colleges and Universities (presentation switched to Tuesday on September 22, 2020)

220,792 Total Tests

35

36

Vermont Higher Education Restart Weekly Covid-19 Positives Among Students

Source: Vermont Colleges and Universities (presentation switched to Tuesday on September 22, 2020)

238 Total Cases

36

37

Total Tests Positives Positivity RateNew

Hampshire*

Maine*

Vermont

150,089+5,576

220,792+8,089

238+10

269+51

776+70

0.18%

0.18%

0.11%

Northern New England Higher Education Update

* Includes NH & ME colleges & universities that publicly provide COVID-19 testing data.

435,153+13,798

37

38

Vermont Higher Education Restart Institution Data as of December 1, 2020

38

39Source: Vermont Department of Health - November 30, 2020 (reporting Monday through previous Sunday); ‘Active’ defined as less than 28 days since most recent case’s specimen collection date or illness start date (whichever is later)

Facility NameTotal COVID-19

CasesChange from Prior Week

Rutland Health & Rehab, Rutland 54 +13

Four Seasons Care Home, Northfield 39 +1

Elderwood at Burlington, Burlington 25 new

Saint Albans Healthcare & Rehab Center, Saint Albans 14 new

Berlin Health & Rehab, Berlin 13 +6

Valley Vista, Bradford 8 +1

Residence at Quarry Hill, South Burlington 8 +5

Averill Place, Barre 5 +1

Total 166 +66

Active Outbreaks in Long Term Care Facilities

39