covid-19: lockdown exit and recovery · 2020. 5. 16. · wk5. wk6. wk7. wk8. wk9. wk10. wk11. wk12....

COVID-19: lockdown exit and recovery

Discussion Materials| 12 May 2020

Global economies are experiencing significant strains on both Supply and Demand as a result of government efforts to suppress the spread of COVID-19 and minimise deaths as a result

Health and economic outlooks for countries are linked by Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI)

The disease Non Pharmaceutical Interventions

Impact of NPI measures on supply, which tests corporate resilience but are mitigated by fiscal and monetary measures

Impact of NPI measures on consumer and corporate demand, with confidence being key, and mitigated by fiscal and monetary measures

The COVID-19 economic-cycle

The COVID-19 health-cycle

How the disease has and will progress if unchecked

Actions governments have taken to suppress the spread of the disease

The NPI measures and their potential relaxation/alteration are the critical transmission mechanics between the health and economic cycles

Supply Demand

• Since COVID-19 spread from Asia to Europe it has brought countries to a near standstill as Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) measures were put in place to slow its spread.

• NPI measures are causing significant damage to many sectors of the economy as many enterprises either have to go into hibernation or operate in severely constrained ways.

• Most governments have introduced similar NPI measures and sought to offset their impact through monetary and fiscal stimuli.

• Increasingly the focus is shifting from the health cycle to the economic and social impact and how governments start to mitigate that impact.

COVID-19: lockdown exit and recovery

COVID-19: lockdown exit and recovery 3

Until a vaccine is available, NPIs may need to continue with periodic easing and tightening to manage cases within ICU capacity, so focus is shifting to how to relax the most economically damaging measures

The NPIs imposed in Europe have been economically damaging…

• Epidemiological modelling of the outbreak has suggested that in an unconstrained world deaths would be very significant and ICUs overwhelmed. The NPIs reduce the scale of the outbreak but prolong its impact.

• These models are very sensitive to assumptions. The health cycle modelling did not consider the economic impact of NPIschosen.

• Workplace and economic restrictions have been very damaging to the economy. Certain Asian markets have managed to implement more sophisticated and less damaging measures through larger testing programmes and track and trace, which is now in force in Germany and UK is trialling this approach.

• The health modelling indicates that when NPIs are relaxed there is a significant risk that they would need to be re-introduced when there are secondary surges.

Case

s

2-3 months “lockdown” Potentially 9+ months of “adaptive triggering of suppression tactics”

Social distancing measures

Periodic/triggered application of social distancing for general population and school/university closure in response to ICU numbers

Econ

omic

seve

rity

Low

Med

ium

High

Low Medium HighHealth impact (reduction in deaths and Reproduction rate “R0”)

Voluntary quarantine

Case Isolation

WFH if possible

School closure

Social distancing

WFH unless essential

Lockdown

Triggering of suppression strategies – stylised illustration

China

IT, ES

FR

UKUS

Isolate >70

Antigen testing

Antigen,track & trace

Antigen, T&T, Antibody


Strategies are now being developed to exit lockdown and “reboot” economies through a phased reopening of sectors over several months

Generic timeline

Need to see testing ramped up and pressure reduce on health services (PPE available and deaths down)

Government needs to start planning the return to work and giving companies clear signals as it will take time to work through details of the workforce return (especially if pre-school return). Government also needs to start focusing on the next supply requirements e.g. temperature testing

Indicative Measures

3 week review

Manufacturing Construction and supply

Non essential retail

(or earlier)

Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12

2 week Extension

Nursery & Schools back

(could be earlier)

Services and offices

(phased)

• There is a pattern beginning to emerge from European countries actions and statements, that forms a generic timeline. Governments will learn from other’s experience and shape their strategy to events.

• Relaxing the current measures will take political courage. To contemplate relaxing NPIs the epidemic will need to have passed its peak and health services be under control with spare ICU capacity.

• Key will be to remove the most economically damaging NPIs, and leave in place or introduce new measures which achieve similar/significant health results.

• Early actions will probably focus on high productivity and employment sectors and those with lower workplace contact and transmission risk.

• Ideally relaxation of lock down would be coupled with a combination of greater antigen testing, antibody testing and technology for track and trace. The role of technology will introduce significant debates about privacy.

…Different geographies are testing various ‘exit strategies’ to mitigate this economic impact

Production and services


The relaxation of NPI will increase R(T), even a small increase above 1.0 results in a significant surge in demand for Respiratory ICU capacity

These exit strategies are linked closely to the sensitivity of ICU capacity to the infection rate R(T)

Parameter Assumption

Incubation period 5.1 days

Infection period 9.0 days

Date of first infection 10/01/2020

R0 (basic infection rate prior to government intervention) 4.4 people

R(T) (effective infection rate post government intervention) Various

Asymptomatic proportion 33.0%

Parameter Assumption

Hospitalised proportion 4.4%

Hospitalised to critical proportion 30.0%

Critical to fatality ratio 50.0%

Length of stay (acute bed) not critical 8.0 days

Length of stay (acute bed) becomes critical 6.0 days

Length of stay in ICU bed 9.6 days

Epidemiology model parameters and assumptions

• When NPI restrictions are relaxed R(T) islikely to increase from the current estimateof 0.6-1.0 back towards an unconstrained 4.4.

• The LHS chart shows expected ICU respiratory admissions in England under certain R(T) assumptions.

• The chart illustrates that even an increase to 1.5 results in demand nearly twice current enhanced “surge” capacity. The peak illustrates that “herd immunity” would constrain the spread in late 2020.

• The first issue is that there are not robust assumptions linking different NPI to their R(T) impact.

• The second issue is that there are key unknowns including the asymptomatic proportion, those who have the virus but show no signs.

• Uncertainty on the value of key parameters leads to a large confidence interval on the model predictions.

• The RHS illustrates the impact of a 50% rather than 33% asymptomatic proportion. There is still a significant surge in respiratory ICU admissions but it remains within surge capacity.

Source: Deloitte research


The UK is behind most other countries as it is later in the cycle and has no announced plans for re-openingUK Focus

Topic Current Status

Virus ProgressionDeaths in hospital showing signs of falling but reports of significant deaths in care homes. With testing being ramped up the number of reported cases shows signs of rising. Real worries about relaxation when number of cases remains high. Official estimates of R0 are between 0.6-1.0.

Health Status Additional “Nightingale” hospitals have been opened so ICU capacity available (c, 15,000 beds) and now some being mothballed. Significant PPE challenges in hospitals causing concern.

Testing Status Achieved antigen testing target of 100,000 tests a day on April 30 and May 1 but not subsequently. No anti-viral testing programme in place. Track and trace apps being trialled on the Isle of Wight from May 6.

Restrictions Essential retail and some manufacturing / construction remains open. Airports remain open with no health restrictions but very limited flights. Proposal to impose two weeks quarantine on arrivals (except from France).

Regional variations England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland have local control so some variations in restrictions. For example Scotland closed all construction but England did not. Now evidence of division on stay at home message.

Relaxation statusPrime Minister announced plans on May 10 (timeline below) which emphases R0 and the number of infections as the factors upon which further relaxation will be decided. Lack of clear detail, with limited initial relaxation of current guidelines but more expected on May 11.

Key Stat May 7

Current lock down score 8

Max lock down score 8

Date of Max imposition March 16

Deaths in past 5 days 2,656

Current doubling days of deaths 21

Weekly Antigen Tests ~385,000

Illustrative Timeline (May 10 Announcement)

May

Construction and production being encouraged back to work (“go back to work if you cannot WFH”) with limited easing of

movement restrictions (avoid public transport)

June

Partial schools re-open (primary early years and 2021 key exam years), retail starts to open

July

Some hospitality resumes with controls in place.

No clarity on WFH restrictions

Source: Our World in Data


There is a very wide range of economic forecasts given current uncertainty so we have defined downside and upside cases around our base

The Deloitte analysis has linked economic forecasts to predictions around NPIs/exit strategies…

• Our economic forecasts consider the level of NPIs and the impact that they impose on the economy (see RHS).

• The impact of the restrictions is non-linearwith significantly greater damage caused at 8-10.

• As a base case forecast we assume that the economic damage of the NPIs are relaxed in May.

• We expect the economy will recover in 2021 as it bounces back from the disastrous 2020 performance.

• In the high case the economy recovers to its previous size in just over a year where as in the low case it takes over 3 years.

Scenario Recovery GDP peak to

troughGDP 2020 vs

2019GDP 2021 vs

2020Time to recover to

peak

Economic severity of NPI: 0-10 Damage: capacity, scarring, balance

sheets*Apr May Jun Q3 Q4

Base H2 recovery -22% -11.6% +5.3% 10 quarters 9 8 8 7 6 Medium

Downside Delayed, restricted, weak -23% -14.6% +0.6% 14 quarters 9 8 9 9 8 High

Upside Convincing mid-year bounce -10% -3.9% +4.3% 5 quarters 9 7 6 4 3 Low

UK

* damage to the economic capacity and prospective demand: gauged by reference to insolvencies, redundancies, corporate and household balance sheet effects, financial stress, risk aversion

Re-opening illustratively in stages from right to left is likely to alongside operational restrictions to achieve social distancing and improved hygiene NPI modifiers, Governments will typically look to accompany unlocking of specific measures with introducing the following to contain R0• Antigen tests - tests whether you have the virus, enabling people to stay

in work or isolate to reduce infection• Track & trace – to enable testing and isolation of known contacts during

immune period• Antibody tests - tests whether you have had the virus and may be

immune, although immunity is not yet proven


…and the predicted decline is extreme

• The LH chart (economic forecast on both a quarter on quarter and year on year basis) shows an extreme impact in Q2 2020. The RHS chart (which plots the data over a longer time period) shows this impact dwarfs anything seen in 2008-2010.

• The extreme nature of the swings between quarter 2 and quarter 3 serves to amplify the very significant issues with rebooting supply chains and enterprises managing to reboot their productive systems almost as quickly as they closed them down in mid/late March.

• If the period of low economic activity continues through 2020 (low case) then the challenge of restarting the economy will be even greater. The level of damage in the economy would be extreme, the unproductiveness may have become sustained and it suggests that other parts of the world may be experiencing similar issues. There would be no guarantee that all would emerge simultaneously.

• The variation in timing and nature of restrictions for different countries will determine the growth profile for each economy.

Forecasts are provisional and subject to consultation

The comparison to 2008-2010 shows how deep, but short, this downturn is expected to be when growth is considered Q on Q

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

UK GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter

Year-on-year

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

UK GDP growth

Base High Low

Quarter-on-quarter

Year-on-year


Contrasting Base Case (V-shaped) and Low Case (U-shaped) scenariosThe outlook varies across the key macro indicators

Base Case (V-shaped) scenario Low Case (U-shaped) scenario

GDP growth Unprecedented drop in output in Q2, but similarly sharp recovery

More persistent GDP downturn more likely to translate into business failures – as in past recessions, but more severe?

Unemployment Large reduction in active employment in Q2, with some job protection through the furloughed scheme, protecting incomes, and much is short term.

Government measures are difficult to maintain in the longer term, as the additional debt results in significant damage to balance sheet strength. This results in greater degree of ‘real’ unemployment, and hence losses

Base Rates Likely to be at zero for a number of years given lack of inflationary pressure

Likely to be zero, but with a small risk of interest rates being forced up by loss of confidence in sterling / financial markets

Consumer price inflation

Likely to be low for quite some time, given low oil prices and general deflationary forces

Likely to be low, but there is a risk of high inflation if confidence in sterling is lost

House price inflation

Uncertain, but potential for only limited declines in prices if housing transactions are able to pick up again in late 2020

Decline in transactions and confidence would be likely to feed into sharp house price falls. Outlook much worse if the financial system weakens.


Detailed scenario analysis requires consideration of specific measures of lockdown and their respective impacts on the economy

Key assumptions in determining scenarios for the economic impact

Measure Impact Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Notes on dates

Closure of non-essential production Widespread loss of production, construction, where deemed non-essential and home-working is not possible Unwound from early May onwards

Closure of non-essential retail Loss of non-essential retail, and ‘contact services’, but online increases to compensate Unwound from late May onwards

Home-working Closure of offices Unwound from June onwards

Closure of education Closure of universities and schools. Impacts on the workforce Schools begin to open early June

Government furlough / loan scheme Government subsidies to employment and industries, to soften the blow of lockdown Runs until end of June at least

Closure of restaurants, bars, domestic tourism etc.

Loss of restaurants, bars, hotels etc. – although some can shift to takeaways Beginning opening end of June

General social distancing Reduced productivity, reduced access to shops, cafes etc. Impact on consumer confidence Gradual relaxation from July to end of year

Closure of large social events Loss of sports, live events etc. None until Q1 2021

Closure of overseas tourism Loss of tourism services Some in late 2020, fully in 2021

Quarantine rules for unwell Loss of staff Throughout 2020

Health activities related to COVID-19 Increase in health output Throughout 2020 and into 2021

The economic impact depends on the extent to which each lockdown measure is in place by Quarter (here showing Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 for the Base Case)

Full lockdown Partial lockdown Positive economic impact


Exposure to lockdown, the easement of lockdown measures and potential economic response varies considerably by sector

Different industry sectors face distinct trends

Our economic forecasts of the UK sector impacts suggests that the impact on the economy varies in different periods by sector: • Q2 2020, assumed to incur the full lockdown impact;• Q3-Q4 2020, lockdown easement, but with the potential for renewed

lockdown;• A potential recession would reduce activity in Q3-Q4 2020 in certain

sectors although may sectors demonstrate a similar response in both the Base Case (V-shaped) and Low Case (U-shaped scenario). This is a result of the restrictions on activity likely to be greater than any reduction in demand

The outlook depends on how long we are in lockdown, the steps taken to unwind lockdown, the effectiveness of public policy responses and the consequent impact on the economy.

Further variation is also expected within sectors:• The size of the organisation may impact the response, with SMEs being

more vulnerable than larger companies;• Employment income, depending on the extent of furlough,

unemployment or under-employment• Regional impact across the UK

Note: The data is not available to split public and private healthcare sectors

All figures are relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline of Q4 2019

Industry Sector SIC2 sectors% Cont'n

to GVA

Q2 2020 Base Case

Q3-Q4 2020 Base

Case

Q3-Q4 2020 Low

Case

Consumer

Automotive Auto 1.7% -30% -13% -13%

Services

Accommodation and food service activities 2.8% -81% -61% -61%Travel agents and tour operators 0.6% -42% -22% -27%Legal accounting, management consulting 6.6% -12% -5% -8%Employment activities 2.6% -27% -12% -24%Security, services to building and office administration 1.9% -11% -4% -7%

Auxiliary services to FS 1.3% -3% -1% -3%Postal and courier activities 1.9% 5% -5% -19%

Transport

Land transport and transport via pipelines 1.6% -16% -6% -11%Water transport 0.3% -12% -5% -11%Air transport 0.3% -58% -30% -30%Warehousing 1.3% -11% -5% -14%

CPG Wholesale Trade 3.5% -9% -4% -12%CPG Manufacture essential 1.6% -1% 0% -1%

Retail Grocery and convenience stores 2.1% 20% 10% 8%Retail Non Grocers and convenience 3.2% -40% -15% -16%

TMT

Telecoms Telecommunications 1.8% -3% -1% -1%

Media

Publishing activities 1.8% -12% -4% -14%Advertising and market research 1.0% -19% -8% -16%Creative Arts and Entertainment 1.3% -51% -42% -42%Sports Activities and recreation 1.7% -63% -57% -57%

Technology Technology 3.0% -5% -2% -8%

ER&I

Power & Utilities

Power and Utilities 2.8% -3% -1% -1%Mining and Metals 0.6% -3% -3% -13%

Industrial Products

Manufacture petroleum products + chemicals 0.1% -5% -2% -7%Manufacture basic material 3.0% -12% -6% -20%Manufacture non-essential 4.1% -15% -5% -5%Manufacture vehicles 1.5% -18% -9% -37%

Construction Construction 6.1% -16% -6% -16%

FSBanking Banking 4.2% -3% -2% -6%

Insurance Insurance 1.7% -3% -1% -4%Real Estate Real Estate 4.2% -30% -13% -15%

LSHC LS Scientific Research and Development 0.7% 2% -1% -5%

G&PS

Defence Public Administration and Defence 4.9% -3% 0% 0%

Healthcare Social work activities 2.4% 11% 9% 9%Public health 5.1% 23% 24% 24%

Education Education 5.8% -48% -11% -11%

1212

Key considerations for business leaders


Lockdown exit and recovery questions to consider (Page 1 of 3)

Customers• What has been the impact of lockdown on their operations/ confidence to

restart purchases?• What are their key products and are you prioritising them?• Do your plans for digital need to be accelerated?Pricing• How should you trade off price with volume?Volumes• How will demand ramp up immediately post lockdown? • How will your product mix/ order size change?• What can you offer to stimulate demand?• How (dynamically) are you forecasting demand?Channels• How will channels to market change?• How are you managing accelerated transition to digital?• What online platforms are you using?Financial robustness• How are you ensuring customers are financially robust?• Have you considered M&A/JVs/Alliances to support disrupted distribution?Contractual breaches• What is the impact of any contractual breaches?• How are you resolving them?

Demand

Key suppliers• Who are your critical Tier 1 suppliers, and how important are you to them?• How much visibility do you have on further tiers of your supply chain and

constraints & risks which may impact your Tier 1?• What support will you need from them?• Have you activated secondary supply sources: secured alternative capacity &

inventory?Restart• How are you working with your suppliers on restart?• How are their operations impacted and what are their plans?• Have you considered offering financial support to accelerate restart?• Have you considered M&A/JVs/Alliances to restart disrupted supply chains?Financial robustness• How financially robust are they? • Could you financially support them if necessary? Contingency plans• What contingencies plans do you have for a failure in your supply chain? • Will you dual source and/or local source more in the future?• Are you party to Transitional Service Agreements and have you considered the

resilience of supply and whether the current T&Cs are fit for purpose?Contractual breaches• What is the impact of any contractual breaches?• How are you resolving them?

Supply



Strategy• What will the future role of the workplace be?• What work automation can be accelerated?Location• What works needs to be onsite / can be done remotely?• How will you phase return to work?• Have you undertaken any location/demographic analysis to support your

property decisions?• Is your property portfolio appropriate for new operating model – how will you

divest of surplus space or acquire new space?Furloughed staff• How are you communicating with them?• How will you bring them back in post-lockdown? Will you bring all back?Morale• What actions have you taken to maintain morale & support mental health?• Are you communicating openly/honestly?Social distancing / Quarantine risk• How are you redesigning the work place and working practices for social

distancing?• Are you separating teams in case one needs to be quarantined?Reputation• How will you mange messages if you need to make wider redundancies?

People

Lockdown exit plan• Given demand, supply & people dynamics, how will you phase exit from

lockdown?• What measures will you implement re social distancing post-exit?Strategy• How are you taking advantage of this opportunity to reshape your business?• Are you fundamentally reassessing your cost base & operating model to the next

normal and/or reduced demand?• Is this the time to focus on core and divest non-core?• What new opportunities does COVID-19 bring? Opportunistic acquisitions?Investment• How will you re-prioritise capex spend (e.g. investment in digital)?• How much catch-up capex will you have next year?Scenarios• What future scenarios are you considering?Operating model - flexibility / contingency• What actions have you taken to make/deliver products from more than one

location?• How easily can you ramp up/down production?Underperforming operations• Can they be turned around, or need to be cut off?Digital infrastructure• What systems changes do you need to make to support new ways of working?

Have you assessed the capacity and resilience of existing systems and support mechanisms?

• Have you reviewed your Cyber risks in line with the new ways of working?• What consideration has been given to technology cost and expense management

and the opportunity to reduce costs?

Operations



Liquidity / Short term cash-flow forecasts• How much liquidity do you need to restart?• How will you deal with deferred liabilities?• What further efficiencies/upsides can you deliver? • What contingency plans do you have?Business Plan Scenarios• What assumptions are you using in planning the ramp-up in demand and activity?• How will your operating model change and over what time horizon will you achieve the

new normal?• What scenarios will you use to underpin your financing discussions?• What is your liquidity and covenant headroom under different scenarios?• Building on the short term cash flow, what further efficiencies/upsides can you deliver? Capital structure • Can the current structure support the business in the short and longer term?• Do you need new money and can current stakeholders provide it (on what terms)?• If you need new money, what scenarios will you use to assess the quantum?• What options do you have to raise external finance (unencumbered assets, disposals,

sale-and-leaseback)?• If you need to restructure, have you considered approach & tools available?Lenders• What is your forecast covenant position?• Have reviewed your loan agreements for other triggers/ remedies?• How will your lenders react to any requests?• Can they provide new money (and on what terms)?• Which alternative lenders have you considered?• Is your debt trading? Who is buying it?

Shareholders• Is their support required, if so can they provide it?• What is your sequencing of approaching them vs lenders?• Do you need to consider external investment/alliances/JVs? M&A• How are you monitoring opportunities?• Are you prepared to act fast if required and what is your experience of buying stressed

assets?• Did you enter into an SPA pre COVID-19? Have you considered the impact on completion

accounts to be prepared or an earn-out to be considered?• Do you need to consider carve-outs or divest assets to raise funds?Government support• Have you used all available options?• Are you able to get a credit rating?• What are the pros and cons of using government schemes?Real Estate• What discussions are you having with landlords around restructuring rental payments

and support?• Do you have freehold assets that can be realised?Management incentives• Are your management team still motivated?• Do you need to reset the MIP? Audit sign-off• What advice is your auditor giving on Going Concern?

Financing


Lockdown exit and recovery questions: Key solutions and contacts

People

Customer & Supplier Financial Robustness

Third Party Credit Risk – Fiona Kaufmann

Customer & Supplier Contractual Breaches

Forensic Disputes – Elizabeth Gutteridge

Supplier Contingency Plans

Third Party Resilience – Mark Bethell

Restart

Value Creation Services – Dave Sharman

Tax

Restructuring Tax – Marcus Rea

Underperforming operations

Accelerated M&A – Rob HardingManaged Exit – Claire Gambles

CP, CVA, Insolvency Ian Wormleighton, Dan Butters

Operating model

VCS Ops – Jason Caulfield, Dave Sharman

People

Human Capital – Will Gosling

Digital Infrastructure

Operations Technology - Mark Steele

Strategy

VCS – Dave Sharman

Post Merger Integration HR Support

PMI – Carol Mote

Mid-range forecasting

Economic Consulting – Sam Blackie, John RavenModelling – Tom WollastonTS Analytics – Paul Leather

VCS – Pete Callas

Lockdown exit plan

VCS Ops – Dave Sharman, Jason Caulfield

Key Customers – Pricing Support

UK MACS Pricing - Joe AbbotOperations – Jason Caulfield

Volumes

Economic Consulting – Sam BlackieModelling – Tom Wollaston

Key Suppliers - Commercial Support/TSAs

Operations – Jason Caulfield

Going Concern Sign-off

Toby Wright, Matt Ward

M&A and Channels (JV arrangements)

Accelerated M&A – Rob Harding, Dan RentonTS Assist Services (Accelerated M&A / Sell-side/ Buy-side) – TS Industry Leads (contact Paul Wiszniewski / Jodi Birkett)

Corporate Finance Advisory - Byron Griffin, Andy Westbrook, Mark Adams, Martyn Gregory and Jonathan Gold

Short term cash flow forecasting

VCS - Pete Callas

Capital Structure

Debt & Capital Advisory – Chris SkinnerEquity Capital Markets – Chris Nicholls, Matt Howell

Financial Restructuring – Jarek Golebiowski, Ben Davies

Contingency Planning, CVA, Insolvency -Ian Wormleighton / Dan Butters

Government Support

Overview – Jodi BirkettCCFF & CBILs – Henry Pearson

Business Rates – Richard JohnsonGrants – Alistair Davies

CJRS – James Warwick, Andrew LilleyTax (TTP/VAT) – Paul Evans, Daniel Barlow

OperationsSupply & Demand Financing

Real Estate

Real Estate – Nigel Shilton

Management Incentives

Tax - William Cohen, Liz Ballinger

Reputation

Risk Advisory – Tim Johnson

Scenarios

Economic Consulting – Sam BlackieModelling – Tom Wollaston

Risk Advisory - Rick Cudworth

Key Suppliers/Customers Analysis

TS Analytics – Paul LeatherCustomer Analytics - Mike Manby

SPA Support

SPA – Louise FarrerSPA Disputes – Claire Jolly

Credit Rating support

Phil Adam


Contacts

Sam BlackieEconomic Consulting LeadEmail: [email protected]

Jodi BirkettFinancial Advisory Clients & Industries LeadEmail: [email protected]

Jarek GolebiowskiNavigating Volatility & Distress LeadEmail: [email protected]

Henry NicholsonChief Strategy OfficerEmail: [email protected]

This publication has been written in general terms and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from action on any of the contents of this publication.

This document also includes certain statements, estimates and projections with respect to anticipated future performance. Such statements, estimates and projections reflect various assumptions and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such statements, estimates and projections will be realised. The actual results may vary from those projected, and those variations may be material. Where we have included scenario analysis, the results produced by our scenario analysis under different assumptions are dependent upon the information which is available in the public domain. Our scenarios are intended only to provide an illustrative analysis. Actual results are likely to be different from those projected due to unforeseen events and accordingly we can give no assurance as to whether or how closely the actual outcomes will correspond to the outcomes projected in the scenarios.

Deloitte LLP accepts no liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication.

Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registered office at 1 New Street Square, London EC4A 3HQ, United Kingdom.

Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom affiliate of Deloitte NSE LLP, a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ("DTTL"). DTTL and each of its

member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL and Deloitte NSE LLP do not provide services to clients. Please click here to learn more about our global network of member firms.

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