covid-19, airlines, society
TRANSCRIPT
Covid-19, Airlines, SocietyFlying in the COVID‐19 Era‐‐Science‐based Risk Assessments and Mitigation Strategies on the Ground and in the Air: A Workshop
Pinar Keskinocak, Ph.D.William W. George Chair and Professor,
School of Industrial and Systems EngineeringDirector, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems
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UncertaintyVariability
DisruptionsComplexity
Data, analytics, systems engineering in decision-making
Fleet planning, Maintenance, Ground operations, Flight & Crew scheduling, Price and revenue management, Disruption management, …
By formulanone from Huntsville, United States - Atlanta Airport Aerial Angle, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=61801195
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Num
ber o
f pas
seng
ers
(in B
illion
s)Bi
llions
Years
Global Air Passenger Traffic (1989 - 2019)
9/11
SARS Outbreak
Avian Flu Outbreak
Global Financial Crisis
Swine Flu
Eyjafjallajökull eruption
Avian Flu Outbreak MERS
Outbreak
Source: World Bank Data
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4.5M
illion
s
Comparison of number of flights operated between 2019 and 2020
2019 2020
Source: International Civil Aviation Organization data
Snapshot of Aug 2020 air-passenger volume compared to Aug 2019: Global travel ↓64% Domestic travel ↓51%; International travel ↓81% Connecting flights ↓81%; Non-stop flights ↓61%
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https://scmwiki2012.wordpress.com/b/belly-cargo/
https://www.ajc.com/business/with-few-passengers-delta-gets-faa-approval-carry-cargo-cabin/txiJbJJV3srGFc0c1mkU8H/
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Infectious Disease Modeling Disease progression
in an individual –Natural history
Disease spreadEnvironmentInterventionsBehaviors
Model the spread of the disease Project spread & metrics/outcomes of interest Evaluate the impact of interventions on outcomes Estimate resource needs Resource planning and allocation
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Data: Various data sources, including• Household statistics, workflow data, classroom sizes, age statistics
Modeling: Agent-based simulation
S: SusceptibleE: ExposedIP: PresymptomaticIA: AsymptomaticIS: SymptomaticR: RecoveredIH: HospitalizedD: Dead
pD
1-pD
pH
1-pH1-pA
pA
S E IP R
IA
DIS IH
School
Household 1 Household 2
Household 3
Workplace
Community 1
Community 2
Household 4
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Scenarios for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
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A few takeaways from our research Shelter-in place effects are temporary School closures buy time, but disruptive;
alternating school day schedules are effective Voluntary quarantine at high compliance levels
significantly reduces infections, while limiting ‘homebound days’
Predictions about resource (hospital bed, ICU bed,ventilator) needs and shortages in variousgeographic regions
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Significance of SARS‐CoV‐2 Specific Antibody Testing during COVID‐19 Vaccine Allocation | medRxivResource Allocation for Different Types of Vaccines against COVID‐19: Tradeoffs and Synergies between Efficacy and Reach | medRxivHigh‐Quality Masks Reduce COVID‐19 Infections and Deaths in the US | medRxivEvaluating Scenarios for School Reopening under COVID19 | medRxivHomebound by COVID19: The Benefits and Consequences of Non‐Pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies | medRxivThe Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread: State of Georgia Case Study | medRxiv
Number of contacts Frequency of contacts Proximity of contacts Duration of contacts
11The Joint Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: An Agent-Based Simulation | medRxiv
Back to “normal”?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Source: NBC and CDC12
What is on the horizon?
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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/2020/08/how-clean-is-the-air-on-your-airplane-coronavirus-cvd/
