covering first quarter 2014 volume 14, number 2 san diego ... … · toyota share of non luxury car...

102,624

77,707 87,621

99,255

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139,593 147,500

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast

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Covering First Quarter 2014 Volume 14, Number 2

San Diego Auto OutlookComprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market

Market Summary

YTD '13 YTD '14 % Chg. Mkt. Sharethru Mar thru Mar* '13 to '14 YTD '14*

TOTAL 31,807 33,952 6.7%

Car 19,644 20,123 2.4% 59.3%Light Truck 12,163 13,829 13.7% 40.7%

Detroit Three 8,160 8,661 6.1% 25.5%European 4,992 5,246 5.1% 15.5%Japanese 15,994 17,525 9.6% 51.6%Korean 2,661 2,520 -5.3% 7.4%

FORECAST

County New Vehicle Market Up 6.7% in First Quarter of 2014 Registrations predicted to approach 150,000 units for entire year

Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market:

1. San Diego County new retail light vehicle registrations increased 6.7% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, above the estimated 1.6% improvement in the Nation. (Note: March figures were estimated).

2. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2014 new retail light vehicle registrations: 147,500 units, up 5.7% from 2013.

3. Light truck market share increased from 38.2% in the First Quar-ter of 2013 to 40.7% this year.

4. Registrations for Japanese brands were up 9.6% so far this year, above the 6.7% overall industry increase.

5. The new vehicle market has come a long way from the depths of the recession. Registrations in the First Quarter of this year were an estimated 33,952 units, up more than 14,000 compared to the First Quarter of 2010.

6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric) market share was 9% thru February of this year, up slightly from last year.

7. Three biggest segments in the county are Sub Compact Car, Standard Mid Size Car, and Compact SUV.

8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations dur-ing the first three months of this year: Ram, Jeep, Jaguar, Lexus, and Mitsubishi. Top five in market share were Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Chevrolet.

9. The county unemployment rate has declined from a high of 11% in January of 2010 to 7% in February of this year.

10. Top five selling cars in county market: Toyota Prius, Toyota Co-rolla, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. Top five light trucks: Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape.

Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk.

Annual Trend in County Market

The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2008 thru 2013, and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2014.Historical data source: Polk.

General Market Outlook for next two years:Sales likely to move higher;

but market is approaching it’s cyclical peak

Gradually improving economic conditions, the easing of the household debt burden, and most significantly, pent up demand have provided the boost to new vehicle sales during the past four years. Although sales are likely to in-crease during the next year or two, the pace of the recovery is almost certain to ease.

San Diego Auto Outlook

Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Q1 '14*

Regs. 19512 24388 28856 31807 33952

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Covering First Quarter 2014

Published by:Auto Outlook, Inc.

PO Box 390Exton, PA 19341

Phone: 800-206-0102EMail: [email protected]

Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz

Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to San Diego Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: Polk.” Unforeseen events affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of San Diego Auto Outlook.

QUARTERLY TREND

Percent Change in New Vehicle MarketCounty and U.S.

MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS

County Market Increased 6.7% in 1st Quarter 2014 vs. 1.6% in U.S.

QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE

Five Years of First Quarter Resultsin County Market

* Figures for First Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February.

Data Source: Polk.

* Figures for First Quarter 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February.

Data Source: Polk.

The county market increased at a faster pace in the First Quarter of 2014.

The market was up by more than 14,000 units in the First Quarter of 2014 vs. 2010.


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Q1 '13

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Trendline

-1.0

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-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

Korean

Detroit Three

European

Japanese

Change in market share

MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS

Sub Compact Car Segment Leads County Market

The table above shows San Diego county market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first two months of 2013 and 2014, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2014 share. Most popular segment in the county is Sub Compact Car. Compact SUV had the largest gain. Data Source: Polk.

Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share(includes hybrid and electric vehicles)

Change in County Market ShareYTD 2014 thru March* vs. YTD 2013

The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: Polk.

The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the county. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *First Quarter 2014 includes January and February. Source: Polk.

MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE

Japanese Brands Gain

MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Green Vehicle Share Slips

Japanese brand share increased 1.3 points.

Alternative powertrain market share has trended higher over the past three years, but declined slightly in the First Quarter of this year.

San Diego County Segment Market Share Review

SegmentMarket Share

YTD ‘13 thru FebruaryMarket Share

YTD ‘14 thru FebruaryChange in shareYTD ‘13 to ‘14

Best selling modelin segment

Sub Compact Car 25.3 24.0 -1.3 Toyota Prius

Standard Mid Size Car 16.1 15.0 -1.1 Toyota Camry

Compact SUV 10.9 12.9 2.0 Toyota RAV4

Full Size Pickup 5.5 5.9 0.4 Ford F Series

Near Luxury Car 5.8 5.9 0.1 BMW 3-Series

Entry Car 6.0 5.2 -0.8 Kia Soul

Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 5.8 5.0 -0.8 Toyota Highlander

Luxury and Sports Cars 4.2 4.2 0.0 BMW 5-Series

Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 3.4 4.2 0.8 Subaru Forester

Mid Size Luxury SUV 3.6 3.8 0.2 Lexus RX

Compact Pickup 3.0 2.8 -0.2 Toyota Tacoma

Mini Van 2.4 2.4 0.0 Honda Odyssey

Compact Luxury SUV 2.2 2.2 0.0 Audi Q5

Sport Compact Car 1.6 1.8 0.2 Ford Mustang

Entry Luxury Car 0.9 1.4 0.5 Mercedes CLA-Class

Large Mid Size Car 1.2 1.1 -0.1 Toyota Avalon

Full Size SUV 0.9 0.9 0.0 Ford Flex

Full Size Van 0.8 0.8 0.0 Ford Transit Connect Van

Full Size Luxury SUV 0.4 0.4 0.0 Land Rover Range Rover


-6.7%

-3.9%

-3.4%

0.7%

7.1%

10.7%

13.8%

18.9%

25.8%

33.3%

35.1%

-13.1%

-11.4%

-0.7%

1.2%

3.8%

5.8%

12.8%

13.7%

27.0%

54.2%

-25.9%

-6.9%

-4.6%

-2.8%

-1.0%

-0.4%

4.4%

21.6%

60.7%

68.3%

-40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

Hyundai

Kia

Infiniti

Honda

Toyota

Nissan

Acura

Mazda

Subaru

Mitsubishi

Lexus

MINI

Volvo

Volkswagen

BMW

Audi

Land Rover

Porsche

Mercedes

FIAT

Jaguar

Tesla

Cadillac

Dodge

Buick

GMC

Ford

Chevrolet

Lincoln

Jeep

Ram

Domestic Brands

European Brands

Japanese Brands

Korean Brands

*Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk.

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE

Ram and Jeep Post Large Percentage GainsJaguar, Lexus, and Mitsubishi are also up sharply

Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle RegistrationsYTD 2014 thru March* vs. YTD 2013

The graphs below provide a comparative evaluation of brand sales performance in the county market. They show the year-to-date percent change in registrations for each brand, organized by category (i.e., Domestic, European, Japanese, and Korean).

Ram and Jeep had the biggest increases. Lexus had the largest increase among Japanese brands.


2.2

3.4

3.7

5.7

6.6

10.8

11.9

15.7

18.9

21.1

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Lincoln

Porsche

Volvo

Cadillac

Infiniti

Audi

Land Rover

Acura

Mercedes

BMW

Share of luxury truck market (%)

2.1

2.3

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4.0

4.2

5.2

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22.2

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Lincoln

Tesla

Porsche

Cadillac

Acura

Infiniti

Audi

Mercedes

Lexus

BMW

Share of luxury car market (%)

3.1

3.2

3.2

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6.4

8.1

9.7

11.2

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Ram

Mazda

GMC

Subaru

Chevrolet

Nissan

Jeep

Honda

Ford

Toyota

Share of non luxury truck market (%)

3.1

3.8

5.6

5.9

6.8

8.0

11.0

11.1

14.7

24.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Subaru

Mazda

Kia

Chevrolet

Hyundai

Volkswagen

Nissan

Ford

Honda

Toyota

Share of non luxury car market (%)

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO

Toyota is Non-Luxury Car Brand Leader; Ford #2 for Trucks BMW is best selling luxury car and light truck brand

Top 10 Non Luxury Car Brands in County MarketOctober 2013 thru March 2014

The four graphs below show market share leaders in San Diego County during the past six months for four primary segments. (Note: figures for March, 2014 were estimated.) Toyota/Scion was the best-selling Non Luxury Car brand, with a sizeable 9.4 point lead over second place Hon-

da. Toyota was also the top ranked Non Luxury Light Truck brand, ahead of Ford and Honda. BMW was the best-selling Luxury Car brand, while Lexus was second.Data Source: Polk.

Top 10 Luxury Car Brands in County MarketOctober 2013 thru March 2014

Top 10 Non Luxury Light Truck Brands in CountyOctober 2013 thru March 2014

Top 10 Luxury Light Truck Brands in County MarketOctober 2013 thru March 2014


2.9%

0.9%

2.7%

1.2%

1.1%

3.2%

2.1%

2.0%

3.5%

4.4%

2.2%

4.3%

2.1%

3.7%

2.3%

10.3%

7.9%

9.7%

13.1%

13.1%

0.9%

0.9%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.6%

2.7%

2.9%

2.9%

3.5%

3.6%

3.7%

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

4.7%

8.8%

10.6%

11.4%

19.9%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

GMC

Infiniti

Ram

Acura

Audi

Dodge

Mercedes

Mazda

Subaru

Jeep

BMW

Hyundai

Lexus

Kia

Volkswagen

Chevrolet

Nissan

Honda

Ford

Toyota

Market Share

County U.S.

The graph below provides a comparison of San Diego County and U.S. new retail market share during the first three months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the county. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on county market share. Toyota was the county leader, accounting for 19.9% of the market, well above its 19.9% share in the Nation.

BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE

Toyota Has Big Market Share Lead in County Market Toyota’s share of county market exceeds U.S. by 6.8 points

County and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2014 thru March*

*Figures for March, 2014 were estimated. Source: Polk.

Toyota, Volkswagen, Lexus, and BMW county market shares are well above U.S. levels.


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Toyota Tacoma

Ford F Series Toyota RAV4 Honda CR-V Ford Escape Nissan Rogue Toyota Highlander

Honda Odyssey

Ram Chevrolet Silverado

Mar

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hare

2013 YTD

2014 YTD

Market shares for Rogue, Highlander, and RAV4 improved.

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Toyota Prius Toyota Corolla Honda Civic Toyota Camry Honda Accord Nissan Altima Ford Focus Volkswagen Jetta

Ford Fusion Nissan Sentra

Mar

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hare

2013 YTD

2014 YTD

Altima, Jetta, and Fusion market shares were up.

MODEL SCOREBOARD

Rogue and Highlander Post Big Market Share GainsPrius and Corolla lead the car sales chart

The two graphs below show market shares in the county car and light truck markets during the first two months of 2013 and 2014. Includes the top ten selling car and light truck models.

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Cars - YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013

Change in Market Share for Top 10 Selling Light Trucks - YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013

Source: Polk.



Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc.

PO Box 390, Exton, PA 19341

Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: [email protected]

San Diego Auto Outlook is distributed free of charge to members of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County. The publi-cation is sponsored and supported by the Association. San Diego Auto Outlook is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an in-dependent automotive market analysis firm. Opinions expressed are solely those of Auto Outlook, Inc., and are not necessarily shared by the Association.

Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., April, 2014

Brand Registrations ReportSan Diego County New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

First Quarter* Annual TotalsRegistrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%)

1Q 2013 1Q 2014 % change 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 Change 2012 2013 % change 2012 2013 ChangeTOTAL 31,807 33,952 6.7 126,570 139,593 10.3

Cars 19,644 20,123 2.4 61.8 59.3 -2.5 78,922 85,630 8.5 62.4 61.3 -1.1Light Trucks 12,163 13,829 13.7 38.2 40.7 2.5 47,648 53,963 13.3 37.6 38.7 1.1

Domestic Brands 8,160 8,661 6.1 25.7 25.5 -0.2 29,798 35,180 18.1 23.5 25.2 1.7European Brands 4,992 5,246 5.1 15.7 15.5 -0.2 21,636 22,842 5.6 17.1 16.4 -0.7Japanese Brands 15,994 17,525 9.6 50.3 51.6 1.3 62,888 70,683 12.4 49.7 50.6 0.9Korean Brands 2,661 2,520 -5.3 8.4 7.4 -1.0 12,248 10,888 -11.1 9.7 7.8 -1.9

Acura 399 454 13.8 1.3 1.3 0.0 1,581 1,863 17.8 1.2 1.3 0.1Audi 470 488 3.8 1.5 1.4 -0.1 2,015 2,106 4.5 1.6 1.5 -0.1BMW 1,201 1,216 1.2 3.8 3.6 -0.2 4,551 5,426 19.2 3.6 3.9 0.3Buick 142 138 -2.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 560 597 6.6 0.4 0.4 0.0Cadillac 274 255 -6.9 0.9 0.8 -0.1 825 1,090 32.1 0.7 0.8 0.1Chevrolet 1,539 1,606 4.4 4.8 4.7 -0.1 6,414 6,973 8.7 5.1 5.0 -0.1Chrysler 149 54 -63.8 0.5 0.2 -0.3 756 609 -19.4 0.6 0.4 -0.2Dodge 587 560 -4.6 1.8 1.6 -0.2 1,661 2,373 42.9 1.3 1.7 0.4FIAT 230 292 27.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 1,041 1,050 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0Ford 3,892 3,878 -0.4 12.2 11.4 -0.8 13,579 15,944 17.4 10.7 11.4 0.7GMC 303 300 -1.0 1.0 0.9 -0.1 1,178 1,419 20.5 0.9 1.0 0.1Honda 3,576 3,602 0.7 11.2 10.6 -0.6 14,070 15,930 13.2 11.1 11.4 0.3Hyundai 1,334 1,244 -6.7 4.2 3.7 -0.5 6,444 5,457 -15.3 5.1 3.9 -1.2Infiniti 325 314 -3.4 1.0 0.9 -0.1 1,408 1,407 -0.1 1.1 1.0 -0.1Jaguar 48 74 54.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 170 226 32.9 0.1 0.2 0.1Jeep 738 1,186 60.7 2.3 3.5 1.2 3,391 3,777 11.4 2.7 2.7 0.0Kia 1,327 1,275 -3.9 4.2 3.8 -0.4 5,804 5,431 -6.4 4.6 3.9 -0.7Land Rover 240 254 5.8 0.8 0.7 -0.1 662 851 28.5 0.5 0.6 0.1Lexus 924 1,248 35.1 2.9 3.7 0.8 4,222 4,888 15.8 3.3 3.5 0.2Lincoln 125 152 21.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 462 532 15.2 0.4 0.4 0.0Mazda 827 983 18.9 2.6 2.9 0.3 3,122 3,962 26.9 2.5 2.8 0.3Mercedes 820 932 13.7 2.6 2.7 0.1 3,861 4,190 8.5 3.1 3.0 -0.1MINI 259 225 -13.1 0.8 0.7 -0.1 1,247 1,146 -8.1 1.0 0.8 -0.2Mitsubishi 117 156 33.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 526 483 -8.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1Nissan 2,701 2,990 10.7 8.5 8.8 0.3 9,820 11,195 14.0 7.8 8.0 0.2Other 96 147 53.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 445 447 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1Porsche 148 167 12.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 586 720 22.9 0.5 0.5 0.0Ram 240 404 68.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 878 1,171 33.4 0.7 0.8 0.1Subaru 796 1,001 25.8 2.5 2.9 0.4 2,247 3,610 60.7 1.8 2.6 0.8Tesla 158 117 -25.9 0.5 0.3 -0.2 86 653 659.3 0.1 0.5 0.4Toyota 6,324 6,770 7.1 19.9 19.9 0.0 25,876 27,339 5.7 20.4 19.6 -0.8Volkswagen 1,340 1,330 -0.7 4.2 3.9 -0.3 6,367 6,030 -5.3 5.0 4.3 -0.7Volvo 158 140 -11.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 715 698 -2.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1*March 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk


'08 to '09 '09 to '10 '10 to '11 '11 to '12 '12 to '13 YTD '13 to YTD '14

New -24.3% 12.8% 13.3% 27.5% 10.3% 6.7%

Used 14.7% -5.0% 0.8% 2.8% -7.4% -2.6%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

-11.1% -22.9%

-45.8%

35.4%

17.3% 5.7%

-3%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or newer

Percent Change in San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations

USED VEHICLE MARKET REPORT

County Used Vehicle Market Declines Slightly in Early 2014Used vehicle registrations fell 2.6% thru February of this year

Below is a list of key trends in the San Diego County retail used vehicle market:

• Retail used registrations in the county declined 2.6% during the first two months of 2014 versus a year ear-lier.

• As shown on the graph below, the county new vehicle market has continued to post larger percentage gains than the used market. New vehicle registrations in-creased significantly from year-earlier levels between 2010 and 2013, while used registrations either de-clined, or increased slightly

• The sharp decline in new vehicle sales for 2009 has led to short supplies of five year old vehicles, leading to the 45.8% drop in five year old vehicle registrations.

• Used light truck registrations fell 3.9%, while cars were off 1.7%.

• Nissan Altima was the best-selling model in the county among 2 year old or newer vehicles. BMW 3-Series was the leader for 3 to 4 year old models.

• Among the top 15 selling brands, Lexus, Nissan, Hon-da, Chrysler, and BMW were the only brands to have an increase in used registrations so far this year.

Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations by Vehicle Age, YTD 2014 thru February vs. YTD 2013

San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle RegistrationsYTD thru February

Registrations % Change Market ShareYTD '13 YTD '14 '13 TO '14 YTD '13 YTD '14

TOTAL 52,235 50,890 -2.6%

Cars 31,306 30,779 -1.7% 59.9% 60.5%Light Trucks 20,929 20,111 -3.9% 40.1% 39.5%

Detroit Three 19,871 18,595 -6.4% 38.0% 36.5%European 8,057 8,019 -0.5% 15.4% 15.8%Japanese 22,236 22,349 0.5% 42.6% 43.9%Korean 2,071 1,927 -7.0% 4.0% 3.8%

Source: Polk.

Source: Polk.

Source: Polk.YTD used registrations are thru February. YTD new registrations are thru March. (March was estimated.)


6.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.2%

-0.6% -1.7% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -6.5% -6.9%

-8.4% -9.1% -12.3%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

USED VEHICLE BRAND SCOREBOARD

Used Lexus Registrations Increase 6.2%Registrations for four other brands move higher

The graph below shows the percent change in used registrations for the top 15 selling makes during the first 2 months of this year vs. year earlier.

Percent Change in Used Registrations (top 15 brands in county) - YTD ‘14 thru February vs. YTD ‘13

Source: Polk.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Toyota Scion Mercedes-Benz C-Class

Ford Edge Infiniti G

Mercedes-Benz E-Class Toyota RAV4

Hyundai Sonata Mazda 3

Ford Fusion Lexus RX

Honda CR-V Ford F Series Nissan Altima Honda Accord

Volkswagen Jetta Toyota Corolla

Honda Civic Toyota Camry Toyota Prius

BMW 3-Series

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Honda Accord Chevrolet Malibu

Kia Optima Dodge Caravan

Ford Escape Mazda 3

Ford F Series Nissan Rogue Toyota Prius

BMW 3-Series Mercedes-Benz C-Class

Ford Fusion Nissan Sentra

Volkswagen Jetta Ford Focus

Toyota Camry Nissan Versa Honda Civic

Toyota Corolla Nissan Altima

The graphs below show top selling models in two age categories: vehicles two years old or newer, and three and four year old vehicles. Source: Polk.

Top 20 Selling Models (Two years old or newer)Used retail registrations, YTD ‘14 thru February

Top 20 Selling Models (3 and 4 years old)Used retail registrations, YTD ‘14 thru February

TOP SELLING MODELS

Altima is Best Seller in 2 Year Old or Newer MarketBMW 3-Series is the 3 to 4 year old leader

covering first quarter 2014 volume 14, number 2 san diego ... … · toyota share of non luxury car...

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