Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski4 miles s. Lamar, CO

Courtesy Dave Tzilkowski4 miles s. Lamar, CO

2010-2013 Persistent Drought

Setting the Stage•3 years of drought•Intensified ‘12 and ’13•Causation:

– La Nina (southern U.S.) partially

– 2011 predicted further south but not so extreme and long lasting

•With rapid intensification it was difficult to prepare and respond in a timely manner

Drought Response

• Many service-providing entities in the region– NOAA centers/offices (e.g., National Weather Service)– NOAA core partners (State Climate Office, Regional

Climate Centers, etc..)– Interagency partners (e.g., DOI, USDA)– State (e.g. KS Water Office), local, private, and NGO

organizations

• But, historically a lack of coordination in “real-time” response to evolving impacts of drought

• The onset of the drought created an opportunity to coordinate a multi-faceted, regional response among multiple partners

Setting the Stage: Purpose of the Meeting

• What are current conditions?

• What can we say about the drought continuing into the second half of 2013?

• What can we say about long-term trends?

• What are information needs going forward?

In Kansas, Crippling Drought Paralyzes Crops Amy Bickel, The Hutchinson News Published: Jun 9, 2013, 9:37 AM EDT Associated Press

Extended Forecast Not Favorable For Drought Improvement Across Western States July 18, 2013By: Julianne Johnston, Pro Farmer Digital Managing Editor

Outlook and Assessment ForumsShort- to Medium-

Range ForecastsCurrent Conditions

ENSO Impacts &Long-Term

Trends

Impacts&

Vulnerability&

Info Needs

• Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)– “Enable the Nation to

move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts”

– “better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

CO. Drought Assessment Group

Colorado •Water Availability Task Force•State Drought Plan: Impact Task Forces

Consensus recommendation to USDM author

Weekly Drought Assessments

Early Warning and Risk Management Relationship

Midwest and Great Plains Drought Information

Webinars• NOAA Regional Climate Services, Regional Climate

Centers & State Climatologists• Since July 2012 (monthly)• Webinars include various topics

• Outlooks, soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, etc…• Water Resources (big rivers)• Wildlife/Ecosystem impacts• Wildfire• Drought Monitor & Outlooks• USDA crop reports

• All past Webinars are posted here: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php

• To sign up go here: http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars

May 24th, 2013 – nr Lamar, CO

2012 Drought Assessment• A comprehensive review

of the 2012 drought situation, including:– Meteorological,

climatological, and hydrological features

– Socioeconomic and environmental impacts

– Regional services provided– Lessons learned, best

practices, and next steps for early warning

• Being drafted, to be released in fall 2013

What Caused the 2012 Drought?• 6 state study region (CO, WY,

NE, KS, MO, IA)• Driest May –August on

record• Immediate cause: lack of

Gulf of Mexico moisture• No lifting mechanisms in late

spring (May-June)• High pressure dominated• Dry begets dry at some point• No clear oceanic connections• Some correspondence since

the late 90’s of dry tendencies

• Not especially forecastable…

http://drought.gov/media/pgfiles/2012-Drought-Interpretation-final.web-041013_V4.0.pdf

Local Drought Monitoring

• National Weather Service: Drought Information Statements (1 or 2/month)– Reservoir & Streamflow– Precipitation & Temperatures– Impacts– Outlooks– Partner Information

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=DGTGLD

RESERVOIR PERCENT FULL CHANGEKEITH SEBELIUS LAKE (NORTON DAM) 39.1% -9.4%ENDERS DAM 33.7% -1.3%SWANSON LAKE 31.9% -3.9%HARRY STRUNK LAKE 54.3% -15.3%

July 22 nr Hays, KS

Discussion and Purpose of the Meeting

• How has the drought impacted your operations?

• What do you see as the greatest short-term challenges for you and the region?

• What do you see as the greatest long-term challenges for you and the region?

• What advice can we offer each other to help minimize the impacts from drought?

• Are there specific types of information that would help in decision making?

THANK YOU

First attempt at drought early warning