country profile: socio economic context smoking prevalence · country profile: indonesia page | 2...
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Country profile: Indonesia Page | 1
Country profile:
Socio economic context
Population, 2015 257.6 million Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World
Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April
2015, World Bank Country Income Classifications, July 2015, http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-
classifications/country-and-lending-groups
Adult population (15+ years) 186.2 million
Income group, 2015 Lower middle
GDP per capita, 2015 3,511 USD
Smoking prevalence
Basic health research (RISKEDAS), 2013 (Age 10+)
Overall Men Women
Current tobacco smokers (%) 29.3 56.7 1.9
Daily tobacco smokers (%) 24.3 47.5 1.1
Current cigarette smokers (%) 29.3 n/a n/a
Daily cigarette smokers (%) 24.3 n/a n/a
* n/a : not available
Number of smokers and overall smoking prevalence (for age 15+), 2013
* The prevalence data reported in the graph above are age-adjusted estimates to enable cross country comparisons. Such estimates will therefore vary from the country prevalence data (as reported in the smoking prevalence table above) and should only be used to compare countries prevalence. Source: WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Control Report, 2015
0.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.9 7.6 11.9
16.6 17.6
69.4
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Bru
nei
Dar
uss
alam
Sin
gap
ore
Lao
PD
R
Cam
bo
dia
Mal
aysi
a
Mya
nm
ar
Thai
lan
d
Vie
t N
am
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ind
on
esia
Nu
mb
er
of
Ad
ult
Sm
oke
rs 1
5+
(Mil)
16.2 16.4
20.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7
26.7
34.0
38.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Sin
gap
ore
Bru
nei
Dar
uss
alam
Mya
nm
ar
Thai
lan
d
Mal
aysi
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Cam
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dia
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t N
am
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Lao
PD
R
Ind
on
esi
a
Ad
ult
(1
5+)
sm
oki
ng
pre
vale
nce
(%
)
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 2
Mortality attributable to tobacco use
WHO estimated death rates (per 100 000) and percentage attributable to tobacco (att), 2004
Men Women Overall
Age 30+ 30+ 30+
Death rate, all causes 1,620 1,519 1,569
Death rate, att 317 176 245
Percentage of deaths, att 20% 12% 16%
Source: WHO Global Report on Mortality Attributable to Tobacco 2012
Death rate per 100,000 (age 30+) attributable to tobacco (att), 2004
Source: WHO Global Report on Mortality Attributable to Tobacco 2012. Data unavailable for Brunei and Vietnam.
157 174
200 209 217
245
284
344
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
ath
rat
e (
pe
r 1
00
00
0)
att
13 13
16 16 16
19 19
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f al
l de
ath
s at
t (%
)
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 3
Economic cost of tobacco use
Total costs of tobacco-related morbidity and mortality, 2005 4.4-11.0 IDR trillion (484-1,200 USD million) = 0.12-0.29 % of GDP
Note: Government covered 35% of these costs
Source: Barber, S., Adioetomo, S., Ahsan, A., and Setyonaluri, D. Tobacco Economics in Indonesia. 2008.
Tax structure and rates, 2016
Production (billion sticks per year)
Price (IDR per stick)
Excise tax (IDR per stick)
SKM (Machine-made kreteks)
I > 2.0 ≥ 1000 480
II ≤ 2.0 ≥ 740 and < 1000 340
≥ 590 and < 740 300
SKT (Hand-made kreteks)
I > 2.0 ≥ 1115 320
≥ 775 and < 1115 245
II > 0.3 and ≤ 2.0 ≥ 605 155
≥ 430 and < 605 140
IIIA ≤ 0.3
≥ 400 90
IIIB ≥ 370 80
SPM (Machine-made white cigarettes)
I > 2.0 ≥ 930 495
II ≤ 2.0 ≥ 800 305
≥ 505 and < 800 255
Tax revenues (All tobacco products), 2013 Billion IDR Million USD
Excise tax revenue 103,570.0 8,935.4 Total tax revenue 129,508.3 11,173.2 Source: WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Control Report, 2015
Indonesia applies a tiered specific excise tax on cigarettes. The excise tax per stick depends on the
type of cigarette (machine-made kretek, hand-made kretek, or white cigarette), the company’s
production volume, and the price per stick.
An additional levy of 10% of excise is raised and goes to the Provinces directly (of which 50% is to be
spent on health) and a VAT rate of 8.7% of retail price inclusive also applies on cigarettes.
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 4
Cigarette Price
Reverse Affordability index *
Source: WHO calculations based on the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Control Report, 2015, IMF World Economic
Outlook & World Bank data.
Real price of the most sold brand, excise tax level (IDR) and excise and total tax share (%), 2008-
2014 (base year = 2010)
* LCU: Local Currency Unit Source: WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Control Report, 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2010 2012 2014
Re
vers
e R
IP in
de
x (2
01
0=1
00
)
13,774.2 13,125.0
15,170.0 14,738.7
6,093.7 6,000.0 6,462.4 6,632.4
44.2% 45.7% 42.6%
45.0% 52.6% 54.1% 51.0%
53.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2008 2010 2012 2014
Real price of 20-pack in LCU (base year = 2010)
Real excise in LCU (base year = 2010)
Excise share (%)
Total tax share (%)
The graph on the left
shows that real prices of
the most sold brand have
increased slightly from
2008 to 2014 while real
excises taxes have
remained almost constant.
Therefore, the excise tax
share and total tax share
remained relatively flat.
Affordability has increased from 2008 to 2014. This means that after taking into account inflation, population and GDP growth, cigarettes have become more affordable from 2008 to 2014.
* Affordability index (RIP index) = average real price of 100 packs cigarettes (most sold brand) divided by real GDP per capita. A line (reverse affordability index) going up in the graph indicates that cigarette affordability is increasing.
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 5
Price of 20 sticks comparison (in International Dollars*) for ASEAN† members in 2014
*An International Dollar is a hypothetical unit of currency with the same purchasing power parity that the USD had in the
United States at a given point in time.
† ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Members States are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, LAO
PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).
Source: WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Control Report, 2015
Production and sales
Tobacco production 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cigarettes (billion pieces) 170.3 187.7 209.0 222.4 251.0 267.9 Unmanufactured tobacco (‘000 tonnes) 176.5 135.7 214.6 260.8 260.2 n/a * n/a : not available Source: Euromonitor International 2016 Ltd; FAOSTAT 2015
Cigarette production of ASEAN members
Source: Euromonitor International 2016 Ltd
64%
13%
50%
33%
8%
45%
67%
51%
62% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Re
tail
Pri
ce in
20
14
, In
tern
atio
nal
D
olla
rs
Excise tax PPP Other taxes (i.e. VAT, Import duties)
Price minus all taxes Excise share (%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Indonesia Singapore Philippines Malaysia Viet Nam Thailand
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f ci
gare
tte
s (b
illio
n o
f st
icks
) 2006
2010
2014
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 6
Cigarette retail sales per capita (age 15+) 2000-2014
Source: WHO Calculation based on data from Euromonitor International 2016 Ltd and population data from the United
Nations World Population Prospects.
Major cigarette companies and market share
Global Brand Owner Market share (%)
2010 2012 2014
Philip Morris International Inc 67.3 70.7 66.9 British American Tobacco Plc 24.1 21.5 25.4 Japan Tobacco Inc 7.7 7.6 7.6 Others 1.0 0.2 0.1 Source: Euromonitor International 2016 Ltd
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Pe
r ca
pit
a ci
gare
tte
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
(sti
cks/
year
) fo
r +1
5
Indonesia is by far the largest producer of cigarettes in ASEAN. Additionally, unlike other ASEAN countries,
production has been increased over time.
Cigarette retail sales per capita have increased steadily from 2003 to 2014, by 4.1% per year on average. This
can be explained partly by the fact that increases in real GDP per capita have outstripped real price increases
of cigarettes and so cigarettes have become more affordable.
Country profile: Indonesia Page | 7
Trade information, 2014
Indonesia’s imports and exports, 2012
Trade flow Commodity Trade value (Million USD)
Net weight (Tonnes)
Export Cigarettes 765.8 75 819 Unmanufactured tobacco 181.3 35 009 Import Cigarettes 15.4 627 Unmanufactured tobacco 569.8 95 732 Source: WHO calculations from UN Comtrade data.
Indonesia’s main trade partners (cigarettes), 2014
Main export partners Share of total exports quantity (%)
Main import partners Share of total imports quantity (%)
Cambodia 50.9 China 62.3 Malaysia 15.6 Hong Kong 32.8 Singapore 10.4 Indonesia 2.1 Thailand 6.8 Germany 1.3 Vietnam 3.3 Russia Federation 0.5 Others 12.9 Others 0.9
Indonesia’s main trade partners (unmanufactured tobacco), 2014
Main export partners Share of total exports quantity (%)
Main import partners Share of total imports quantity (%)
Malaysia 19.0 China 48.3 USA 15.1 Brazil 9.2 Belgium 12.3 Turkey 6.3 Philippines 8.0 USA 5.6 China 4.6 Zimbabwe 4.6 Singapore 4.5 India 4.4 Others 36.6 Others 21.7 Source: WHO calculations from UN Comtrade data.
Indonesia is a net exporter of cigarettes and a net importer of unmanufactured tobacco. Indonesia’s
trade balance for these products was +362.0 million USD in 2014.