Country Development Country Development Partnership on Environment Partnership on Environment

(2008-2010)(2008-2010)

CDP-E Phase II CDP-E Phase II

Manida Unkulvasapaul and Jitendra (Jitu) Shah, Manida Unkulvasapaul and Jitendra (Jitu) Shah, World Bank, 12 September 2008World Bank, 12 September 2008

CDP-E Phase II: OutlineCDP-E Phase II: Outline Context and RationaleContext and Rationale

NRE in ThailandNRE in Thailand Emerging issues Emerging issues Impacts of CC in Thailand Impacts of CC in Thailand Thailand-World Bank Partnership (CDP-E)Thailand-World Bank Partnership (CDP-E)

CDP-E II FrameworkCDP-E II Framework1.1. Climate Change initiatives – Global and LocalClimate Change initiatives – Global and Local

• TGO and ONEP Programs TGO and ONEP Programs

2.2. Support integrated resources managementSupport integrated resources management• IWRM in the northeast (DWR) Coastal erosion (DMCR) IWRM in the northeast (DWR) Coastal erosion (DMCR)

3.3. Support regional and global issues (ODS, POPs)Support regional and global issues (ODS, POPs)

4.4. Overall coordination and partnership support.Overall coordination and partnership support.

Context and RationaleContext and Rationale Thailand’s rapid growth has brought indisputable Thailand’s rapid growth has brought indisputable

progress. But has also induced a continued progress. But has also induced a continued degradation of the country’s degradation of the country’s Natural Resources Natural Resources and the Environmentand the Environment (particularly of water and air (particularly of water and air quality, land and forests, and coastal areas). quality, land and forests, and coastal areas).

Other Other emerging issuesemerging issues are now increasing the are now increasing the pressure:pressure:

1.1. Climate ChangeClimate Change2.2. Coastal erosion / mangrove degradation Coastal erosion / mangrove degradation 3.3. Need for integrated water resources management (IWRM)Need for integrated water resources management (IWRM)

Climate Change and air pollution are Climate Change and air pollution are today two main concerns for Bangkok today two main concerns for Bangkok citizens citizens

Bangkok Post, 9 September 2008Bangkok Post, 9 September 2008

CC in ThailandCC in Thailand 1994: baseline of 286 million t CO1994: baseline of 286 million t CO22-eq/yr-eq/yr 1999-2004: GHG emissions grew by 30%1999-2004: GHG emissions grew by 30% 2008: Thailand ranks 242008: Thailand ranks 24thth emitter country emitter country 2030 Projections: 840 million t CO2030 Projections: 840 million t CO22-eq/yr -eq/yr

(50% power, 50% industry and transport)(50% power, 50% industry and transport) Countries with Largest Percentage Increase in Emissions: 1994-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Malaysia Thailand China Iran Spain India SaudiArabia

Turkey Egypt UnitedArab

Emirates

Indonesia

Percen

t

1994-1999

1999-2004

Impacts of CC in ThailandImpacts of CC in Thailand

Impact: Sea level Impact: Sea level Effect: Effect: More inundationMore inundation

Impact: Sea temperature Impact: Sea temperature Effect: MEffect: More acidificationore acidification

Impact: Precipitation Impact: Precipitation Effect: Effect: More floodingMore flooding

Impact: Droughts Impact: Droughts Effect: Effect: Bad harvestsBad harvests

Impact: Ecosystem Impact: Ecosystem

changes changes

Effect: Effect: Sub-tropical life Sub-tropical life

zones disappearzones disappear

Truth: No obligation for Thailand Truth: No obligation for Thailand

Reality: Reality: Thailand should be prepared for socio-Thailand should be prepared for socio-

economic and environmental adaptationeconomic and environmental adaptation Thailand could be a CC leader for SEAThailand could be a CC leader for SEA Immense opportunities for private sector Immense opportunities for private sector

(new markets, new technologies, and new (new markets, new technologies, and new business models will appear)business models will appear)

Why Should Thailand Why Should Thailand

Do Anything?Do Anything?

Costs of Action & Inaction – Costs of Action & Inaction – “Wait and See” is not Sensible“Wait and See” is not Sensible

InactionInaction • Loss from 3% up to 20% of GDP (Stern 2007). Loss from 3% up to 20% of GDP (Stern 2007). • Global losses of $160-330 billion, projected to Global losses of $160-330 billion, projected to

$850-1,350 billion by 2030 (UNFCCC, 2008).$850-1,350 billion by 2030 (UNFCCC, 2008). ActionAction

• Stabilization of emissions would cost 0-3% of Stabilization of emissions would cost 0-3% of global GDP by 2050 (IPCC, 2007).global GDP by 2050 (IPCC, 2007).

• Additional $200-210 billion in 2030 to return Additional $200-210 billion in 2030 to return global emissions to current levels. global emissions to current levels.

• Costs of adaptation in developing countries Costs of adaptation in developing countries around $9-41 billion per year (World Bank, 2007).around $9-41 billion per year (World Bank, 2007).

Responses To DateResponses To Date

Tenth Five Year Plan includes CC;Tenth Five Year Plan includes CC; New Institutions: Climate Coordinating New Institutions: Climate Coordinating

Committee, Thailand Greenhouse Gas Committee, Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO);Management Organization (TGO);

Energy conservation measures;Energy conservation measures; Promotion of alternative energy;Promotion of alternative energy; Stabilized forest cover;Stabilized forest cover; Research on methane emissions;Research on methane emissions; CDM projects (10 registered, 22 submitted, CDM projects (10 registered, 22 submitted,

39 approved by TGO)39 approved by TGO)

Relationship evolved from a borrower-lender arrangement to Relationship evolved from a borrower-lender arrangement to one where the Bank’s one where the Bank’s knowledge and technical assistanceknowledge and technical assistance (TA) (TA) provides value to Thailand’s NRE management.provides value to Thailand’s NRE management.

CDP-ECDP-E supports the Royal Thai Government in meeting the supports the Royal Thai Government in meeting the country’s environmental goals (as established by MoNRE and country’s environmental goals (as established by MoNRE and NESDB). NESDB). DialogueDialogue is, and will remain, and important element to is, and will remain, and important element to the success of CDP-E.the success of CDP-E.

MNRE requested a 3 years extension of the CDP-E (2008-2010. MNRE requested a 3 years extension of the CDP-E (2008-2010. Initial discussions confirmed that a new issue like Initial discussions confirmed that a new issue like climate climate changechange was a priority (especially regarding water and coastal was a priority (especially regarding water and coastal resources), but also resources), but also building on CDP-E1 resultsbuilding on CDP-E1 results and continue and continue the the supportsupport to the to the ongoing projectsongoing projects (POPs, ODS) was very (POPs, ODS) was very important.important.

Thailand – World Bank Thailand – World Bank PartnershipPartnership

1.1. Support Climate Change initiatives:Support Climate Change initiatives:A.A. TGO ProgramTGO Program

B.B. ONEP Program ONEP Program

2.2. Support integrated water resources Support integrated water resources management:management:

A.A. IWRM in the northeast (DWR Program)IWRM in the northeast (DWR Program)

B.B. Coastal erosion (DMCR Program)Coastal erosion (DMCR Program)

3.3. Other regional / global issues (ODS, POPs) Other regional / global issues (ODS, POPs)

4.4. Overall coordination and support.Overall coordination and support.

CDP-E Phase II FrameworkCDP-E Phase II Framework

Policies MatterPolicies Matter

Think Big, Take Small Steps:Think Big, Take Small Steps:1.1. Optimize existing assetsOptimize existing assets

2.2. Look for new low-carbon Look for new low-carbon solutionssolutions

3.3. Be ahead of energy prices and Be ahead of energy prices and others in the regionothers in the region

CC as an Opportunity CC as an Opportunity for Vision and Leadershipfor Vision and Leadership

Benefits of curbing CC emissions:Benefits of curbing CC emissions:• First mover advantage First mover advantage

(doing it now will be cheaper and more effective)(doing it now will be cheaper and more effective)

• Cost reductions Cost reductions (doing it will save you money)(doing it will save you money)

• Improved brand positioning and corporate image Improved brand positioning and corporate image (doing it will be good for your business)(doing it will be good for your business)

Thank YouThank You

For further information contact:For further information contact: Jitendra (Jitu) ShahJitendra (Jitu) Shah

Country Sector Coordinator, EASES, SE Asia Country Sector Coordinator, EASES, SE Asia

The World BankThe World Bank

30th Floor Siam Tower, 30th Floor Siam Tower, 989 Rama I Rd, Pathumwan, 989 Rama I Rd, Pathumwan,

Bangkok Thailand 10330Bangkok Thailand 10330' DIRECT LINE ++ 66 2 686 8360  ' DIRECT LINE ++ 66 2 686 8360  ' Cell phone ++ 6689 9214223' Cell phone ++ 6689 9214223

7 ++66 2 686 8301  7 ++66 2 686 8301  jshah@worldbank.orgjshah@worldbank.org

www.worldbank.org/eapenvironmentwww.worldbank.org/eapenvironment