counting the costs of the 2005 amazon drought: a preliminary assessment mandar trivedi 1, anderson,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought:a preliminary assessment
Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3; Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3; Mitchell, A1
1Global Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford, 3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTEC-Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
Earth System Science, 2010Edinburgh
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Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought:a preliminary assessment
Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3; Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3; Mitchell, A1
1Global Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford, 3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTEC-Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
Earth System Science, 2010Edinburgh
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Outline of talk
• Background of project
• Context of 2005 drought
• Impacts on socio-ecological system
• REDD+: opportunity for mitigation-adaptation
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Background
• Valuing Rainforests as Eco-utilities• Capacity-building: Ecosystem Services for Poverty
Alleviation (ESPA)
• PI: Patrick Meir, U. Edinburgh• Future risks: Deforestation and climate change• Current vulnerability: Dry season impacts important to
socio-ecological system• Mitigation-adaptation: REDD+
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Drought impacts in general• 1997-98 El Niño: global impacts
• Amazonian drought resistance/resilience– Roots access deep water (Nepstad et al. 2007; Meir et al.
2009)– ‘Green-up’ (Saleska et al. 2007)– High tree mortality in 2005 (Phillips et al. 2009)
• “One-two-punch”:– 2002-03 El Niño– 2005 Atlantic warming with dry season rainfall reduction
Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)
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2005 Amazon drought
• El Niño: eastern Amazonia
• 2005: southwestern Amazonia
• El Niño:– Pacific influence– typically wet season
• 2005:– Atlantic influence– dry season
Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)
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Impacts on aspects of the socio-ecological system
• Fire and forest function • Transport: flights• Health: waterborne diseases, pulmonary disease• Agriculture• Fisheries
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Fires
• More than twice as frequent as the average over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)
• Fire leakage:– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)– Close to forest edges– Dry forest more likely to burn
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Fires• More than twice as frequent as the average
over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)• Fire leakage:
– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)– Close to forest edges– Dry forest more likely to burn
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Acre
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Acre State
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Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
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Transport (flights)
• Smoke from fires affected visibility
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Flights
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Transport (river)
Photo: Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
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Carbon• Tree mortality in plots, Acre
(Phillips et al., 2009)
• Forest & pasture burnt area (Shimabukuro et al., 2009)
• Multiplied by biomass loss (Kaufman et al., 1998)
• Converted to C loss
Acre State
• Dead trees & burnt standing forest in Acre:
• 2.4 TgC
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Health• Hospital admissions:
– Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS (SIH/SUS)
• Waterborne diseases:– typhoid fever, cholera and diarrhoea
• Pulmonary diseases:– asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
(COPD) and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI)
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Waterborne diseaseCosts of hospital treatment, Acre
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Pulmonary diseaseCosts of hospital treatment, Acre State
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Agriculture
• Annual censuses of permanent and temporary crops• Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
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Agriculture
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Extractive fisheries
© AP
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Extractive fisheries
• Major livelihood assets of ribeirinho• Major source of protein• Data from IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment
and Renewable Natural Resources• Losses in four states: BRL$ 13.3 m
• Aquaculture unaffected
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Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Rondônia
4.000.000,00
6.500.000,00
9.000.000,00
11.500.000,00
14.000.000,00
16.500.000,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Val
ue (R
$ of
200
7)
Rondôniamedia
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Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Acre
6.000.000,00
6.400.000,00
6.800.000,00
7.200.000,00
7.600.000,00
8.000.000,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Val
ue (R
$ of
200
7)
Acre
media
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Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Mato Grosso
15.000.000,00
16.400.000,00
17.800.000,00
19.200.000,00
20.600.000,00
22.000.000,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Val
ue (R
$ of
200
7)
Mato Grossomedia
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Summary
• Large costs associated with drought:– Crops, especially manioc (staple crop)– Fires/forest function (large carbon emissions)– Extractive fisheries but not aquaculture– Health– Transport (flights)
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Summary
• Impact on poor communities hard to quantify• Lack of data:
– non-marketed goods (crops & fish)– self-treated diseases– river transport - underpins economy– school closures– livestock losses– hydropower
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Baka people, Cameroon. Source: Helveta
• Incentives to change behaviour & conserve forests
• Community-based monitoring
• Maintain local knowledge:– ecosystem services– weather– wellbeing
• Mitigation-Adaptation opportunity
REDD+
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Thank you
© L. Anderson
Funded by Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme