CASH DEPARTMENT

COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY

REPORT

January–September 2020

October 2020

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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Contents:

1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins ........................................................ 2

2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes ............................................. 4 3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes ............................. 6

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins

In the first nine months of the year, expert analysis of suspected counterfeit

banknotes showed that 1,765 notes were indeed counterfeits.

Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits.

In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-,

2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1).

Percentage-wise, these three denominations made up 97.3% of the overall number of

dinar counterfeits.

Table 1 Overview of detected banknote counterfeits

January–September 2020 (in pieces)

Denomination 5,000 2,000 1,000 500 200 100 50 Total

Pieces 17 565 741 412 25 4 1 1,765

Share in % 1.0 32 42 23.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 100

Source: NBS.

0,1%0,3%

1,4%

23,3%

42%

32%

1%

50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000

Chart 1 Denomination structure of dinarbanknote counterfeits, January−September 2020

(pieces)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed over the last ten years in terms of the

number of detected banknote counterfeits of the three most frequent denominations.

In value terms, the 2000- and 1000-dinar banknotes made up the largest share of

the dinar counterfeit structure (Table 2 and Chart 3). In percentage terms, these two

denominations accounted for 86.3% of all dinar counterfeits.

2.531

1.3821.562 1.267

741

1.729

9641.372

1.199

728

7.213

2.330 2.1061.590

860

1.435

2.115

2.770

1.782 1.870

725 1.114350

2.087

2.808

1.510

794

1.239

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

500-dinar 1000-dinar 2000-dinar

Chart 2 The most frequent dinar counterfeits (in pieces)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 Total

Pieces 85 1130 741 206,0 5,0 0,4 0,1 2.167,5

Share in % 4 52,1 34,2 9,5 0,2 0 0 100

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Table 2 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January–September 2020

(RSD thousand)

0%

0%

0,2%

9,5%

34,2%

52,1%

4%

50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000

Chart 3 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−September 2020

(nominally)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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A comparison of the number of detected banknote counterfeits with that of genuine

dinar banknotes in circulation reveals that 3.89 in every 1 million circulating banknotes

were found to be counterfeit, i.e. there was RSD 6,996.39 worth of counterfeits in

every RSD 1 billion.

2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes

In the January–September 2020 period, expert analysis of suspected counterfeit

banknotes showed that 363 notes were indeed counterfeits.

In the observed period, 329 counterfeit euro notes were detected. The ratio

between the number of the most frequently detected euro counterfeits – 100- and 50-

euro banknotes over the last ten years is presented in Chart 4.

In the first nine months of the year, 29 counterfeit dollar banknotes were detected.

In the observed period, almost solely the 100-dollar note was falsified.

133

966

295

159118

535734

299

776

124

511

227

197129

1.081

243

1.023

323

239

854

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

50-euro 100-euro

Chart 4 The most frequent euro counterfeits

(in pieces)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Currency

Denomination 500 200 100 50 20 10 50 100

Pieces 42 12 132 80 62 1 329 1 28 29 5 363

Share in % 11,6 3,3 36,4 22 17 0,3 90,6 0,3 8 8 1,4 100

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

ЕUR Total

EUR

Total

USDOther Total

Тable 3 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January–September 2020

(pieces)

USD

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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Chart 5 shows movements in the number of detected 100-dollar counterfeits over

the last ten years.

In the observed period, the item “Other” in Table 3 refers to fake banknotes in four

different currencies: German mark (two pieces), pound sterling (one piece), Russian

rouble (one piece), and Swedish krona (one piece).

In nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total foreign currency

counterfeits is best illustrated if expressed in euros,1 as shown in Chart 6.

1 For conversion of other currencies into euros, we used the middle exchange rate as at 8 October 2020.

1.572

74 94

266

504

1.193

107 141 105 120

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

100-dollar

Chart 5 The most frequent US-dollar counterfeits(in pieces)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

41,8

2,40,4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

EUR USD Other

Chart 6 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits,

January−September 2020

(in EUR thousand)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes

Chart 7 shows the ratio of detected dinar to foreign currency counterfeits (in terms

of the number of pieces) in the January–September 2020 period.

As shown, the share of counterfeit dinar banknotes (79.4%) exceeds the share of

all detected foreign currency counterfeits.

However, in nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total

counterfeit banknotes in the first nine months of 2020 is best illustrated if expressed in

dinars,2 as shown in Chart 8.

2 The middle exchange rate as at 8 October 2020 was applied to convert the value of other currencies to

the dinar.

1.765

329

29 5

RSD EUR USD Other

Chart 7 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits

detected in January−September 2020

(in pieces)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

2.167,5

4.920,0

285,046,2

RSD EUR USD Other

Chart 8 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits

detected in January ̶ September 2020

(in RSD thousand)

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2020 National Bank of Serbia

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The euro (66.3%), followed by the dinar (29%) and the US dollar (3.8%) took up

the dominant share in total discovered counterfeits.

NOTE: In February this year, the police seized 20,564 counterfeit 100-dollar

banknotes (nominal value - USD 2,056,400), which is not covered by this Report as

the forged notes were detected and seized before they were put in circulation.