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ISSN 0919-9748

Summer 2005 No.50

Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle

OpinionFive NWS Must First Step Forward toNuclear Disarmament:- A Retrospect on the NPT Review Conference -

InterviewHalt of Energy Supply Is to Stop BloodCirculation- Interview with Mr. Akira Amari, Member ofHouse of Representatives -

CNFC ReportSix-Way Talks Will Surely Make aCompromise

Summer 2005 No.50

Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle

TBR Bldg. 303,2-10-2, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku,

Tokyo 100-0014, JapanTEL : 81-3-3591-2081FAX : 81-3-3591-2088

E-Mail [email protected] Site http://www.cnfc.or.jp/

• OpinionFive NWS Must First Step Forward to Nuclear Disarmament:

- A Retrospect on the NPT Review Conference -

• InterviewHalt of Energy Supply Is to Stop Blood Circulation

Interview with Mr. Akira Amari, Member of House of Representatives

• CNFC ReportSix-Way Talks Will Surely Make a Compromise

Satoshi MorimotoLight-Water Reactors to Be Breeder Reactors!

- R-BWR of Hitachi, Ltd. -

• CNFC InformationThe 14th CNFC General Meeting Held

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Contents

PublisherJun-ichi Nishizawa

Executive EditorShigeru Goto

Editorial OfficeCouncil for Nuclear Fuel Cycle

CNFC Members of the BoardChairmanNISHIZAWA, Jun-ichiPresident, Tokyo Metropolitan University

Acting ChairmanTSUSHIMA, YujiMember of the House of Representatives

DirectorsGOTO, ShigeruFormer Member of the House of Representatives

IMAI, RyukichiFormer Ambassador Extraordinary & Plenipotentiary,Conference on Disarmament (Geneva)Professor, Kyorin University

KIMURA, TaroMember of the House of Representatives

NAKATANI, GenMember of the House of Representatives

OHATA, AkihiroMember of the House of Representatives

OSHIMA, TadamoriMember of the House of Representatives

TANABU, MasamiMember of the House of Councilors

WATANABE, ShuMember of the House of Representatives

YAMAMOTO, YujiMember of the House of Representatives

Date of Issue : September 7, 2005

Designed by QB System Co., Ltd.Printed by ASAHI BUSINESS CO., LTD.

Cover : August 6, 8:15 a.m60 times have come around already. Fortunately, there have been no recur-rence of Hiroshima or Nagasaki up until today, but the number of nuclear-weapon states continues to increase. (at the Hiroshima Peace MemorialMuseum)

1Plutonium No.50 Summer 2005

60 years have passed since the end ofWorld War II, and the nuclear arms situa-tion is harsher than ever. As feared andexpected, the Review Conference ofNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)held in last May unfortunately ended with-out reaching any agreements. None of theagendas that are supposed to be determinedin the preparatory committee, prior to theplenary session, and the fate of the ReviewConference was major concerns forthoughtful experts and activists for nucleardisarmament. As predicted, the confronta-tion between the non-aligned countries andWestern countries arose, and it would seemonly natural to have resulted in a lack ofsubstantial discussions.

At the 1995 Review and ExtensionConference, held on at the time of the expi-ration 25 years after the entry into force ofthe NPT, it was decided to indefinitelyextend the treaty and at the same time toadopt "Strengthening the Review Processfor the Treaty" as well as "Principles andObjectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferationand Disarmament." However, it appearedas though the focus on nuclear disarmamentbegan to recede as the conference endorsedthe indefinite right to possess nuclearweapons for nuclear-weapon states (NWS),almost resigning with apathetic feelings per-colating through the non-nuclear-weaponstates (NNWS). It is assumed that thisproblem surfaced at the review conference,which led to the lack of pressure toward theeffort of disarmament and elimination of

nuclear weapons.At the NPT Review and Extension

Conference of ten years ago, there wereheated debates over whether and how theNPT should be extended-for one period, fora rolling set of periods, or indefinitely,because inequalities under the NPT may beresumed indefinitely. The inequalities heredid not mean that NNWS could not possessnuclear weapons but rather that NWS couldpossess nuclear weapons indefinitely. Itwas feared that accepting this inequalityindefinitely could mean that NWS may neg-lect efforts toward nuclear disarmament andelimination, or ignore any demands fromoutside for nuclear disarmament or elimina-tion. The promotion of a series of techno-logical developments such as subcriticalnuclear tests in NWS was obvious proofthat the fear of indefinite extension hadbecome reality.

When the NPT entered into force 35years ago, this treaty was the exclusive coreof the regime of specific internationalnuclear non-proliferation (a purely moraltreaty, from the very beginning, in terms ofdisarmament and elimination of nuclearweapons in the NWS), and it was "supposedto" reinforce the nuclear non-proliferationregime. Furthermore, by the decision,adopted together with the indefinite exten-sion at the NPT Review Conference tenyears ago, it was "supposed to" be recon-firmed that the elimination of nuclearweapons was the ultimate goal, and the

nuclear disarmament in NWS was to bepromoted.

It is not a matter of reassurance again, butthe basic philosophy of the NPT was to sus-tain the number of NWS only to the big fivestates by pressuring NWS into giving up allnuclear weapons and their development,and hampering the proliferation of nuclearweapons without allowing other countries toretain any intentions and purposes. It alsoadvocated that these five states would beasked to implement nuclear disarmamenthonestly, and was aimed at the ultimateelimination of nuclear weapons.

Then, why countries such as India,Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, South Africa,Libya and Iraq have become ones that areclearly or are suspected of possessingnuclear weapons, or that develop or are sus-pected of developing nuclear programs afterthe NPT went into effect? Dr. AbdulQadeer Khan, who was called "the father"of the Pakistani nuclear establishment, onceboasted, "I have developed nuclear weaponsfor peacekeeping. The reason that the U.S.and Europe have stopped wars was that theypossessed nuclear weapons." Dr. Khan,himself, was selling technologies and equip-ment, such as centrifugal systems for highlyenriched uranium, through his own under-ground network to Iran, Libya and NorthKorea. When the problem of Dr. Khan sur-faced, the Pakistani government declared itwas simply an individual crime, but whetherthe government was involved will beproved someday.

Five NWS Must First Step Forward to Nuclear Disarmament:

- A Retrospect on the NPT Review Conference -

According to the NHK Special program,"Tracking the nuclear black market - anuncontrolled giant network," broadcast onAugust 8, the U.S. did not assertively hinderthe Pakistani nuclear development eventhough they knew about it, and ignoredfraudulent use of nuclear technologies byDr. Khan, as well as his material procure-ment. Moreover, the said program reportedthat the U.S. did not hinder the supply ofany nuclear technologies or equipment tothe third world by Dr. Khan. It stated thatthe reason was because the U.S. supportedPakistan, a neighboring country ofAfghanistan, and continued to neglectnuclear development in Pakistan for politi-cal reasons. It is suspected that not only the

U.S. but also other NWS may have previ-ously supplied nuclear technologies andmaterials to North Korea. Against the back-ground of the advancement of nuclear pro-liferation, and the opinion that NPT has nowbecome stultified, there is direct or indirectnuclear proliferation by the big five NWS.

However, it is undeniable that the NPT isthe world's only regime for nuclear non-pro-liferation with a specific internationalnuclear non-proliferation system, and noother treaties can replace it. We must retainand develop this regime by all means. Inorder to do that, I believe, it is essential toobtain strong support and cooperation fromNNWS. How do we do that? It is neces-sary to ensure that tangible efforts to reduce

inequality should be made by the NWS. Inthe Opinion column of the No.48, 2005winter issue of this magazine, I proposedthat the first step should be for the UK andFrance to declare elimination of nuclearweapons at the NPT Review Conference, asthe East-West confrontation appears to haveended, but no such proposal was presented.In order to keep the NPT regime in the com-ing years, not only the UK and France butthe big five NWS should get togetherbeforehand to discuss each substantialnuclear disarmament plan by respective fivestates so that they can propose it at the nextReview Conference of the NPT.

Editor

Opinion

2 Plutonium No.50 Summer 2005


Interview

Oil Will Continue to Be Pillar of Energy

-- The energy issue is making a bigimpact on world affairs, but consider-ing inflating oil prices and globalwarming, what do you think is neces-sary for the stable supply of energyin the future world.Mr. Amari: Several years ago, Japanmade the "The Basic Law for EnergyPolicy" (legislated by HouseMembers). The reason for this legis-lation was that we needed principleson which to base promotion of energy

policy. This Energy Basic Law ismade up of three principles.

First, a stable supply is a key issueof energy policy. If supply of energystops, it would be the same as ourblood circulation arrest. It wouldmean the collapse of daily life, econo-my and society. We cannot let thishappen.

There has also been a loud call forprotection of the earth's environmentfor which world-scale measures areabout to be taken. The second pointin the Energy Law is how we should

work to lessen the discharge of CO2,to protect the earth's environmentand coexist with nature. We willwork toward rationalizing the econo-my based on the above two points.The basic idea is to go ahead withour competition policies and worktoward securing energy on the basisof these two points.

Today, 50% of the primary energyin Japan is oil. Although this ratiomay go down a little in the future, itis still the mainstay of energy. Forthe future, we have to consider howto secure a stable supply of oil, andhow to improve the quality of oilitself in order to decrease pollutionas much as possible. In addition, asthe ratio of coal lessens among thefossil fuels, there is the issue of howto secure supply of natural gas andthere would be the great theme ofhow to expand nuclear generatedelectricity.

In other words, we must measureeach of the energy sources accordingto the Energy Basic Law, go aheadwith those measures necessary thatare in line with this basic principle,and promote energy that most suits

Interview with Mr. Akira Amari, Member of House of Representatives

It has been a year and three months since the establishment of "Council on Long-Term Resources and Energy Policy" by Diet members. In this Council, they havebeen committed to the study of long-term policy with regard to energy, viewing the sit-uation 100 years from now. Chairman of the Council is Mr. Akira Amari, Member ofthe House of Representatives, who is also Chairman of the Budget Committee in theHouse of Representatives. Mr. Amari has also held the posts of Chairman of"Subcommittee on Energy Policy in Research Commission on Oil, Resources andEnergy" and Advisor of "Special Committee on Nuclear Fuel Cycle," in the LiberalDemocratic Party. He has a deep understanding for nuclear energy matters.

Mr. Amari's website (www.amari-akira.com)'s section on "Drinks I enjoy" includeswine. In our interview, we found that he is also very particular about his coffee. Ourinterview with him on July 26 is as follows: (Editor)

Halt of Energy Supply Is to Stop Blood Circulation


this principle. Nuclear energy isclearly most suitable as an effectivemeasure for CO2 reduction and a sta-ble supply of energy. Nuclear fuelprices do not go up and down drasti-cally like fossil fuels, and is stable, soit is an excellent energy source. Inthe future, I believe it is important tocontinue to put safety first in opera-tion of nuclear power plants and finda way to gain the understanding ofour citizens.

National Government Decides theCountry's Energy Policy

-- Many people are divided on theissue of the nuclear fuel cycle. Someare against, some are for, and we allhave various opinions. Why do youthink there are such differences inopinions?

Mr. Amari: First, many people have ageneral vague feeling of uneasinessconcerning nuclear fuel. I believe itis very important to talk to the peo-ple about this uneasiness and specifi-cally about maintaining safety anddealing with accidents, and ask forthe people's understanding. Nuclearpower is excellent in many ways, sowe must get people to understandthe good areas and explain in easilyunderstood words about how wehave dealt and are dealing with theshadow areas. Nuclear energy issomething, I believe, that we muststeadily promote with the utmostcare, while continuing to prioritizesafety. We should never underesti-mate people's feeling of uneasiness,and we must also put emphasis onproviding information and explana-

tion.-- If there is an accident or

malfunction at a nuclear facili-ty, the head of local govern-ment sometimes makes acomment such as "It is betterto halt the operation of nuclearfacility." How is the best wayfor us to consider the relation-ship between the national andlocal governments and thenuclear facil i ty? Nuclearpower development is thenational energy policy, butwhat do you think of the localhead of government speakingof their contrary opinions con-cerning measures by thenational government.Mr. Amari: It is important to getthe understanding of the peo-

ple at the facility located area inorder for national policy to go for-ward. However, because it is anational policy, the national govern-ment has the decisive right for pro-moting it and not the local govern-ments. The Basic Law for EnergyPolicy, we are speaking of, also givesthe responsibility of promoting ener-gy policy to the national government.It states that local governmentshould make use of their uniquequalities when include this in theirlocal policy. I believe local govern-ments decide matters on things con-cerning their local area. Issues con-cerning all of Japan are national pol-icy so the national government hasthe final decision. However, thatdoes not mean that the national gov-ernment can ignore the local opinionand go ahead with whatever theywant. We must try to get the mostunderstanding from the local peoplebefore going forward, but ultimatelythe national government mustdecide and take responsibility for thepromotion of such policy.

Support for Hard and Softwares,Human Resource and WasteManagement Should Be Given toDeveloping Countries

-- Do you have any specific ideasregarding how Japan can contributeto prevention of global warming orsustaining a stable supply of energy,such as the use of ODA towarddeveloping nations? Includingnuclear power for example.Mr. Amari: With regard to energy as awhole, there is the issue of how we


Interview

can assist in each country's energypolicy, such as oil reserves. It is alsoimportant to provide energy savingtechnology, because the energy issueis a world-wide issue and we mustfind measures that will contribute tolessening the burden on the earth'senvironment.

Nuclear energy is an excellentchoice when considering environ-mental and CO2 countermeasures. Itsupplies a stable large amount ofenergy so its role as a base-load can-not be taken over by anything else.However, for the Asian developingnations to be able to use nuclearpower, they must be given assistancefrom the hardware to the software -from building facilities to manage-ment and safety assurance. Withregard to nuclear power, it is notenough for just Japan to secure safe-ty. Accidents and incidents overseascould also lead to stop promotion inJapan, so that we must watch out forsafe operations with the sameamount of care and anxiety bothabroad and in Japan. I think it isquite possible to export a nuclearpower plant under the ODA and oth-ers, but it is important to give sup-port not only with the hardware butwith the software - in the area ofhuman resource development.

The issue that is most difficult inthe use of nuclear energy, both inJapan and abroad, is the final dis-posal of radioactive waste. In Japan,Nuclear Waste ManagementOrganization of Japan (NUMO) islooking for candidate sites for finaldisposal of high level radioactive

waste through the candidate selec-tion system, but this problem is onethat is seen in every country thathas nuclear power plants. We haveto include this as part of our supportto developing nations in the develop-ment of nuclear power.

FBR Is the Key to Solve the Restraintsof Waste Management and ResourceReserves

-- Japan is working on securing astable supply of energy as a nationalpolicy, but will it become necessaryin the future to change the currentsystem and organization in order towork out a national strategy for thispurpose? For example, there is talkthat we should make a Ministry ofEnergy.Mr. Amari: There is talk of creatingseparate ministries for other issuesas well, depending on policy andobjectives, but for the near future Ithink it is enough to let the depart-ments in charge take full responsibil-ity and create a cooperative system.It will take too much time and effortto separate and reorganize theseparts. Now, for example in the fieldof nuclear energy, research anddevelopment activity is covered bythe Ministry of Education, Culture,Sports, Science and Technology

(MEXT), while development of com-mercial nuclear plants by theMinistry of Economy, Trade andIndustry (METI). It would be possi-ble to reorganize these all fromscratch. However, it has not beenlong since we created this new gov-ernment ministries structure, so Ibelieve that, for now, it is enough forthese separate areas to work togeth-er.

When we think of the stable sup-ply of energy, we must establish thepolicy for recycling nuclear fuel. Forthe time being it is the use of MOXfuel in light water reactors (LWRs),but the final destination is the use offast breeder reactors (FBRs). Thiswill make it possible to burn highlevel radioactive waste that is soproblematic to us. If we can makethe FBR fully commercially viable,then the present 60 years worth ofuranium resources could be used formore than 1,000 years. This wouldmake nuclear power an almost end-less energy source. At the sametime, this will lessen the troublesomeactinoid elements included in thehigh level waste by burning it out inthe reactor, leaving only residues.For the above reasons, we shouldpromote the use of FBRs.


Nuclear Technology Field Is Elite'sCourse

-- In universities, nuclear technolo-gy department is almost non-existentand numbers of workers in nuclearindustry is becoming smaller. Couldyou give a little advice to those peo-ple who work in nuclear industry, asto what they should consider as theywork in this field.Mr. Amari: We must create an envi-ronment where nuclear technology isnot thought of as "troublesome" butas the star performer that will sus-tain our life in the present and intothe future. What I keep saying tothe people in government office isthat we must include those depart-ments that are involved in manage-ment of nuclear issues in their pro-motional paths. Having beenresponsible for nuclear power opera-tions is something that one should bevery proud of, and we must make itinto a post that increases their moti-vation as government officials. Ibelieve there will be no future tonuclear energy uses if those officialsgiven this post think, "now I havebeen landed this post, so I hope I getthrough the next two years withoutany happenings so that I can moveon."

Although I would like universitiesto recreate nuclear technologydepartments, if the students havenowhere to go after graduation,there is no meaning to this. Wemust give incentives to companies toaccept such graduates, but if there is

no job for them, there is no meaningto this either. The rebuilding ofnuclear power plants will begin fromaround 2030. At this time there willbe big demand for nuclear engineers.The question is how to keep the engi-neers until this time. As China andother Asian countries start develop-ing nuclear power plants, the impor-tant question is how Japan will con-tribute to these; how we can createjobs for our nuclear power engineers,maintain and improve the technolo-gy.

We Cannot Export Nuclear Plants andNuclear Technologies withoutCooperation of National Government

-- Asian countries, specificallyIndonesia and Vietnam, haveexpressed the plan to build nuclearpower plants, and have been puttingtheir programs forward. I would likefor ourself to be able to work withsuch countries and assist in suchplans so that they might utilize oursafe equipment and technologies fornuclear power plants. In France, thePresident himself is conducting diplo-matic talks in order for these coun-tries to import French nuclear powerplants. Although I cannot say forcertain because the nuclear powerindustry situation between Franceand Japan are different, I think theJapanese government must alsowork more actively to provide ournuclear power plants and technolo-gies in consideration of the preven-tion of global warming and the pres-ent world oil situation.

Mr. Amari: That is exactly right. Inthe case of nuclear power plants, thefact that the supplying country's gov-ernment is firmly behind the plantmanufacturer leads to acceptingcountry's governmental trust.Because large capital investment isneeded, and there is the worry aboutthe negative aspects, the supplyingnational government must step intothis supportive role fully prepared.This would also be true in sales ofother national projects. Japan is theonly country that the governmentdoes not back up such private enter-prise. I think that we must improvethis point.

Especially in the case of nuclearpower, there is no way that a countrywould agree to a business that is notbacked up by the seller's govern-ment. In this sense, it is very impor-tant that Minister S. Nakagawa ofEconomy, Trade and Industry writesa sort of commitment letter, showingthat the government is backing thisup. Specifically on the question ofhow the government will back up aprivate enterprise, governmentinvolvement is a very touchy issue,but it might cover the enterprisewith trade insurance and long-termlow interest loan by Japan Bank forInternational Cooperation (JBIC). Itis important in any case to have thestructure by which we are saying,"Please contract with our plant man-ufactures on the assurance that ithas the backing of our national gov-ernment."

-- Thank you very much.

CNFC Report


North Korea Is Really at Stake

There is no knowing how these 4thSix-Way Talks, currently being held inBeijing, would end. However, basedon the information I have come toknow thus far, I would like to tell youabout the focus or problems of the Six-Way Talks and think about how we,as a nation, approach certain issues.

As we all know, the first priority inNorth Korea is neither the nation'sdevelopment nor prosperity of the lifeof the people but rather how the KimJong-il regime could survive -that is,in summary, the survival of the Kimregime itself. It has been twentyyears since Kim Jong-il -who wasgiven the position of chairman of

North Korea's National DefenseCommission, the position with com-mand authority over North Korea'sarmy while Kim Il-sung was alive-began to get involved in nucleardevelopment in the early 1980s, dur-ing his sustained give-and-take rela-tionship with the army. This nucleardevelopment is now an essentialmeasure for the survival of hisregime, and it is clear that they "don'thave" any intention of abandoning itall. Nevertheless, if they say thatthey don't have such an intention,they aren't sure what the U.S. woulddo. They don't want to become likethe regime of Saddam Hussein inIraq. In other words, to attend theSix-Way Talks is like an insurance to

not receive any military pressurefrom the U.S., or it could mean more.

In other words, although NorthKorea is currently receiving donationsfrom China and South Korea to copewith their food and energy crisis, thesituation is more serious than everthat cohesion within the regime maybe endangered if the situation contin-ues. North Korea must present thiscard of nuclear development on thetable at this Talk and gain somethingfor the regime's survival. The necessi-ty is stronger than ever.

If North Korea doesn't have anyintention of completely disarmingnuclear weapons, there will be noincentives to participate in the Six-Way Talks. However, why does theNorth attend the Talks? Even thoughthe North has no intention of aban-doning all nuclear development pro-grams, if they hold on to the stubbornstance of not yielding at all, it will pro-voke the U.S. causing it to leave theTalks, and then, North Korea will def-initely receive UN Security Councilsanctions. It may not end there. Insome cases, it could be military pres-sure from the U.S. If that's the case,

In the midst of the Six-Way Talks to discuss the issue of North Korea's nucleardevelopment, the 9th meeting of the "Council on Long-Term Resources and EnergyPolicy," comprising Diet members of the Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party,and New Komeito, respectively, was held on August 3. We invited Professor SatoshiMorimoto of Takushoku University to talk about the ongoing Six-Way Talks in regardsto the status of each country, how the Talks are going, and so on. Summary of histalk follows. (Editor)

Six-Way Talks Will Surely Make a Compromise

Satoshi MorimotoProfessor

Director of Institute of World StudiesTakushoku University

CNFC Report


neighboring countries may hesitate toprovide any assistance, and mayresult in the economical and militarypressure that may destroy the KimJong-il's regime. As that does notguarantee survival, they had to thinkif and how they could take full advan-tage of nuclear development as "lever-age" in diplomatic negotiations. Theymust hold onto nuclear weapons asthe last deterrence, but in order to dothat, even though they have to freezeor abandon some of the nuclear devel-opment programs, it is necessary tomake the rest of the world believe thatNorth Korea may still possess nuclearweapons, or it might implementnuclear development. By partialfreezing or abandonment of nucleardevelopment as leverage at the negoti-ations, North Korea can secure thesupport of food and resources to con-tinue the regime, and seek methodsthat retain measures of minimumdeterrent. Taking all these elementsinto consideration, she is back to theSix-Way Talks, and this is the prereq-uisite to my talk that I will now give.

Needs Support without Abandoning toNuclear Development

When we predict why the Six-WayTalks are resumed in this way andhow current negotiations are going,we can see some completely differentfactors from the previous three Talks.The biggest factor is the changedresponse of the U.S.

On the other hand, the backgroundof North Korea's willingness to attendthe Talks of this time was to have aninsurance to hinder any militaryattacks from the U.S., as I mentionedearlier. North Korea fears that unlessit shows an attitude that it will beback to the Talks as far as the condi-tions are met, the U.S. may interveneby military force. If they intervene,the North thinks it can respond tosome extent, but it doesn't have a suf-ficient capacity in resources, indus-tries, and funds to operate 1,130,000troops to continue fighting due to thefact that the country has almost nodomestic energy, and an insufficientamount of oil to operate combat vehi-cles and fighter jets. Therefore, if itreceives pressures from outside, theregime falls apart from the inside andcannot continue the regime. Even ifthe regime survives, intervention byoutsiders will be crucial to the domes-tic situation.

Specifically, if North Korea werepinpoint-attacked on their nucleardevelopment facilities, it would haveto respond by sending military troops.If it must fight with the U.S., unless itresults in "victory" even partially, theleadership of Kim Jong-il will not besustained. Then, what can it do towin against the U.S., even partially?The result may be mobilizing a largenumber of U.S. troops stationed inSouth Korea. If North Korea respondsto these troops, the counterparts in

the North may not last even a week.Considering such a situation, theNorth has to display the attitude thatit is always willing to return to theTalks to respond to negotiations withthe U.S. To the extent that the Northresumes the Talks, it is like an insur-ance to avoid being attacked.

However, because North Korea hasno serious intention of abandoningnuclear development programs, whilebuying some time for nuclear develop-ment programs, it negotiates to secureany support by displaying, to the U.S.,the measures of freezing or elimina-tion. I believe that, as leverage, it uti-lizes their nuclear development pro-grams to the maximum extent possi-ble and its delegation is given the twomandates, "don't come back empty-handed" and "don't give up any rightsthat would strip the nuclear develop-ment programs." In other words, byattending the Talks to negotiate onhigh ground, North Korea is request-ing to bring back a substantial out-come or promise in return, eventhough it gives in partially. However,for the North, because it is difficult toaccept inspections of undergrounduranium enrichment facility, it wouldnot accept such a conclusion. I thinkthose North Korean delegates areattending the Talks with such toughmandates given. They are expected toreturn home with any agreement, byall means.

CNFC Report


U.S. Congress Has Changed Attitudeof the Government

Diplomatic negotiations have oppos-ing parties, and it isn't easy to predictwhether things will develop as NorthKorea expects, but the U.S. haschanged in that it is first trying toresolve the issue by diplomatic negoti-ations rather than by militaryresponse. However, the RepublicanParty of the U.S. retains its policy ofdemanding and pursuing the completeelimination of nuclear developmentprograms in North Korea. On theother hand, I assume that Secretary ofState C. Rice gave Assistant SecretaryC. Hill the mandate that if NorthKorea demands something, the U.S.may accept it, and "don't come backwithout any chairman's statement, orconsensus document" as in the pastthree Talks. The biggest contributingfactor for that was the U.S. Congress.This third authority, the Congress,responds severely to the Bush admin-istration as well as Secretary Rice,and the second Bush administration israpidly becoming a lame duck in therelationship between the Congressand the White House. In successiveU.S. administrations in the past,among re-elected administrations,there has never been an administra-tion like this that has rapidly becomea lame duck within the six months.The U.S. Congress rarely trusts theBush administration, and with the

exception of U.S. Secretary of DefenseD. Rumsfeld, due to the Departmentof Defense preparing military cam-paigns, they cannot help but acknowl-edge, but other than that, takes initia-tives in the rest of the issues.

Secretary Rice was beaten badly atthe Senate confirmation hearing, andher dignity was insulted considerably.She feels indebted to the Congressand has to work on diplomatic negoti-ations while paying attention to theCongress, unlike former Secretary C.Powell. As J. Kelly, AssistantSecretary of State, left the administra-tion, Mr. Hill, the former ambassadorto South Korea, was selected asAssistant Secretary to conduct negoti-ations for the first time. He was givena strict mandate that "It is acceptableeven if the negotiation results in theU.S. having to support North Korea,but a lack of progress in negotiationscannot sustain the relationship withthe Congress. When we do the pre-liminaries of various policies with theCongress, we need the approval of theCongress, so please don't put us insuch a situation." Therefore, I believethat Secretary Hill must somehowreach an agreement with North Koreato meet this mandate.

Not Willing to Reach an Agreement,That's a Farce

While priorities of the RepublicanParty are focused on the elimination ofnuclear development, counter-terror-

ism, and strategies against weapons ofmass destruction, they are required tobe more flexible than ever and torespond in a more realistic manner inorder to secure support from theCongress. The KEDO (KoreanPeninsula Energy DevelopmentOrganization) project has been termi-nated due to the resumption of NorthKorea's nuclear development pro-grams, but now, the U.S. may have aneye for resuming KEDO. In otherwords, with Japan and Korea as a tar-get for funding, the U.S. moves NorthKorea in order to further the hamper-ing of the nuclear developmentprocess. However, this doesn't meanthat, in return, assistance and supportwill come from the U.S.

Between the U.S. and North Koreahaving China as a mediator, therewere three working-level meetingsbefore the Talks. They resulted inpromises in some extent to NorthKorea, and the North understands thesituation prior to attending the Talks.Frankly speaking, the Talks this timeis a sort of farce, and even though itwas reported that it would be fairlydifficult to reach any agreement, it ispossible in fact that they are seekingfor common ground. Who was the tar-get of the reported difficulty? It wasthe U.S. Congress in the case of theU.S., and Kim Jong-il in the case ofNorth Korea. Showing to each coun-try that they are working on almostimpossible tasks at the Talks creates a

CNFC Report


situation in which they can returnhome and be welcomed for their hardwork at the Talks even if they are ableto reach a final agreement. In thatsense, I think that it is like a fight onthe table but shaking hands under thetable.

The U.S. displays its support forNorth Korea, and the country thatsupports that position is South Korea.China seems to know it all includingthe backstage negotiations. China cangain diplomatic points as the Talks'chair if any specific agreement isreached. The former head of theChinese delegation, Mr. Wang Yi, hasbeen in Japan as the Chinese ambas-sador. As this is the first stage for Mr.Wu Dawei, the new head of theChinese delegation, he has to gainsome points for the Chinese govern-ment. Therefore, the Chinese delega-tion is apparently willing to do any-thing to the extent that an agreementis reached. It is Russia that is sup-porting this in the background. On allaccounts, Japan is the only countrythat is kept out of the league.

Dramatic Attempt of South Korea

Russia doesn't have any doctrinesor strategies for this Six-Way Talks,other than simply showing to every-body that "Russia is here," saying,"You cannot avoid Russia. Russia is avery important actor." The basic posi-tion of Russia is just to support China,the Talks' chair. I believe that South

Korea is attempting something, afterall. I don't know what that is, but if Ihave to guess, they are planning some"dramatic" event, either on NorthKorea's National Foundation Day inSeptember, or at the commemorativeopportunity of the North-South reuni-fication of the Korean Peninsula inOctober. I don't know what "dramat-ic" means in this case. I don't thinkSouth Korean President Roh Moo-hyun's visit to North Korea will be"dramatic," but if Kim Jong-il visitsSouth Korea, it will make it quite a"dramatic" event. It could also be pos-sible that North and South might con-nect railroads and have a historicmeeting at Panmunjeom.

In other words, South Korea haspositioned this Six-Way Talks as thetrigger for such a "dramatic" event.Therefore, they want the U.S. torespond as flexibly as possible in orderto have North Korea respond realisti-cally, and find an agreement to sup-port the North in return. With regardto details of the support, South Koreawill take the initiative. As SouthKorea is very eager to help NorthKorea in any way possible to respectits participation in this Six-WayTalks, they have this kind of strongincentive in South Korea. As Japanhas the issue of abductions, we could

not do anything. Even if the nuclearissue makes some progress, we aren'tcapable of addressing the abductionproblem. Simply explaining thatJapan stood and chatted on this issuecannot convince the Japanese society.Unless progress is made on the abduc-tion issue, a large scale of supportfrom Japan cannot be expected at themoment. That said, it can be predict-ed that the U.S. will be the countrythat will pressure Japan.

Unlike Japan, "North" Korea Is Not aThreat to South

Even though shaking hands underthe table was mentioned, they stillhave to work on an agreement thatcan sustain the basic principlesrespectively. Taking these basic prin-ciples into consideration, there are fivekey points on which we should focusin these Six-Way Talks. One is thescope of nuclear weapons elimination,or in other words, whether or not itincludes both uranium and plutoni-um. North Korea demands that"peaceful uses should be accepted,"and it won't give in with regard to thislast line. As U.S. diplomacy is run ona roadmap, as far as the whole plan ispresented, they may respond realisti-cally, that is "If North Korea shows ustheir final plans, a conditional agree-

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ment on peaceful uses can be acceptedat this stage." However, at themoment, the peaceful uses is the mainfocus of the negotiations, and they arein a frozen state from which neither ofthem can withdraw.

The second point is denucleariza-tion of the Korean Peninsula. NorthKorea claims that demanding thedenuclearization of only the North isnot fair. The U.S. forces stationed inSouth Korea declare that they don'thave nuclear weapons, and I believethat is true. North Korea even makesreference to the U.S. forces stationedin Japan. Regarding the inspection,North Korea is confronting the verydifficult issue that if the U.S. inspectsthe North, it should also be entitled toinspect the U.S. forces. Of course, Idon't think the U.S. will accept this,but a risk exists in which South Koreamay opt to accept it. As you mayknow, according to the Korean opinionpolls, the greatest threat to SouthKorea is the U.S. The second threat isChina, the third, Japan, and thefourth, North Korea. North Korea isnot really a threat to the South. Asyou can see, the greatest threat to theKorean people is now the U.S. Publicopinion in Korea indicates that NorthKorea is not a threat to them, butrather it is the U.S. that hasoppressed the South Korean people bysupporting previous Korean regimes,and has manipulated the people freelyby inflaming a false threat of the

North. "The U.S. is the one to be elim-inated."

Which Comes First, Promises orSupport?

Returning to the five key points, thethird is details of the support of, andcooperation with, North Korea. Asyou may know, the critical proposal bySouth Korea known as the "An Jung-geun Plan" talks about an electricpower supply of only 2,000 MW at thevery most. Besides, the North doesnot have power lines. It may takesome years to put them up in order tosupply 2,000 MW, but most likely,North Korea will not say "yes" forpower distribution, so it will do that byitself. This is the proposal from theSouth. Suppose that such power sup-ply were to be distributed to majorfacilities in the North, but when theSouth stops the supply, all the lightsat those facilities would go out at thesame time. As seen in the example ofthe recent blackout incident atHaneda Airport's air traffic controlfacilities on August 2, this proposal iscalled the "electrical outlet theory,"although it is a very important propos-al. South Korea controls the pluggingand unplugging, so when they unplugfrom the outlet, all the lights at thefacilities in the North go out. NorthKorea argues that it cannot acceptsuch a proposal.

How dare South Korea name it "AnJung-geun Plan"?

The fourth-and a very tough issue-isthe procedure and process of nuclearelimination, support, and cooperation.When we say elimination, it couldmean partial elimination of nucleardevelopment programs, freezing thefirst-step process, or just destroyingone of the facilities, but North Korea isasking for assistance and supportprior to that. However, the U.S.argues that this is not possible, askingthe North to exhibit relevant behaviorfirst so that they can provide suchsupport. North Korea responds,"Since you have promised, give usyour support first." Therefore, theproblem is the steps of the procedure.North Korea wants some assurance ofthe promise of support, and if possible,wants to bring something back home,because that is the "mandate" for theNorth delegation.

Lastly, the fifth point is how to solvethe other problems. It seems veryuncertain now whether the missileand the abduction issues will beincluded in the agreement. The out-look appears very pessimistic at themoment.

There are many issues to be dis-cussed, but I think they will reachsome conclusion shortly. It may takesome time, but an agreement will bemade. Conflicts or disagreements onmajor issues may deliberately beexpressed ambiguously, or they maydevelop a framework to postpone solu-tions to the problems for specific dis-

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cussions in the future by creatinggroups at a technological level.Anyway, they will reach an agreementand escape the major issues. All thedelegations will be at a loss unlessthey reach some agreement. Unlikethe previous Talks that ended in ashort amount of time, I think thesemeetings will continue until partici-pants reach an agreement.

Support of the "North" Makes the"Abduction issue" Conditional

Lastly, I would like to talk aboutwhat Japan should do in these conjec-tures. Japan's problem is the "abduc-tion issue." Because little progresshas been made on this issue, theJapanese government cannot make acommitment to support and cooperatewith North Korea. Moreover, if theabduction issue is not included in theagreement even indirectly, criticismamong the public will arise thatJapan's claim is not being accepted.In regard to this issue, the U.S. givesJapan lip services, but in general, it isviewed as an issue that only Japan isclaiming and is considered to be an"issue between two nations" in thisSix-Way Talks. At present, the priori-ty goes to nuclear development issues,and the consensus is that it is not acomprehensive issue as Japan claims.As the motives of China, which is theconference chair, are rather promi-nent, this abduction issue is in a verysevere state.

Therefore, because there doesn'tseem to be any progress made on theabduction issue at this stage, Japanhas to consider its role in the abduc-tion issue when it has to make promis-es of support and cooperation as aresult of the agreement. Neither theU.S. nor China may be supportivefinancially, so Japan and Korea arethe ones who would provide the fund-ing. Then, that may be the only timethat Japan can ask to include theabduction issue in the agreement asone condition. From the very begin-ning, Japan has been placed in a verytough situation, and such an indirectmeasure is the only means of diplo-matic leverage for bringing the abduc-tion issue to the forefront.

Japan-U.S., Japan-Korea, Japan-China; All Difficult

The Japan-Korea and Japan-Chinarelationships seem difficult, and I amnot sure what would happen to theissue of Japan's privatization of postalservices. We also have an issue of theprime minister's visit to YasukuniShrine. There will be an APECMeeting in Pusan, South Korea inNovember this year. Since it is thehome of Takeshima, if the prime min-ister J. Koizumi goes to APEC as thesituation stands now, it is possible

that only he will be treated differently,like "having stones thrown at him." Inorder to soften the tension, Japan sentMr. Koizumi to visit South Korea inJune for the summit meeting betweenthe two, but as you know, PresidentRoh Moo-hyun spent an hour and 50minutes of the 2-hour meeting talkingabout the school textbook publishedby Fuso Publishing Inc. However, in acasual conversation after that, theprime minister mentioned that hecould not make the press conferencewithout any mention of North Korea,so they announced that they talkedabout North Korea as well at thepress conference. This was the sum-mit meeting between Japan andSouth Korea.

Amidst the difficult Japan-China aswell as Japan-Korea relationships, Ialso worry about the relationshipbetween Japan and the U.S. Our gov-ernment has continued to declare thatthe "Japan-U.S. relationship is fullysecure," but when the next extraordi-nary Diet session is held this fall, asthe Anti-terrorism Special Lawexpires on October 1, it must beamended in the Diet before the end ofOctober. Otherwise, the tasks by theMarine Self-Defense Forces cannot bepostponed. If this bill is not passed,how will Japan explain it to the U.S.;

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Either Support or Sanction

Q: In relation to the abduction issue,the economic sanctions against NorthKorea have been discussed in Japan.Considering the current situation, I'mnot sure whether it is the right time toenforce it against North Korea.According to your lecture, unless theU.S. or China provides funding forsupport, the economic support of ourcountry will weigh substantially forNorth Korea. At these Six-Way Talks,in connection with the role to beplayed in foreign policy within theinternational community, what isyour opinion on the effectiveness ofeconomic sanctions, and whether thesanctions should be enforced?Morimoto: That is just like solving amultidimensional equation. Primeminister says "dialogue and pressure,"but none of them are moving now. Asa matter of fact, Japan has stalled the125 thousand tons of food support.This is not economic sanctioning. We

ask for dialogue while always keepingthe two cards-the port-entry prohibi-tion law for specific ships and revisionof the foreign exchange law-in thepocket. On the other hand, if neces-sary, a full-scale economic sanctioncould be enforced. There are two waysto do that. One is to strictly imple-ment full-scale economic sanctionsand ease up on sanctions little-by-lit-tle while observing their effects. Theother method is to build up varioussanctions. However, in order to showJapan's intentions, a firm execution offull-scale sanctions can be done, and ifNorth Korea shows a positive attitudeat the Six-Way Talks, one sanctioncould be lifted. Dealing with it situa-tion-by-situation might be effective,and I understand that many Dietmembers agree with this idea. That'sone of the measures.

As the government is reluctant toexplain, I would like to interpret in myown way as follows. We have theabduction issue and national security

then what will we do with Iraq, howdo we repair the relationship after thebeleaguered situation on the UNSecurity Council issue, how do we dealwith the restructuring of U.S. forces,what do we do when neither of us givein on the BSE problem, and then

comes the Six-Way Talks. Nothingseems to be functioning satisfactorilyin the Japan-U.S. relationship. A suc-cessful steering is required now. It isnecessary to think about the Six-WayTalks in these whole context.

Questions and Answers

issue in Japan. Of course, the abduc-tion issue is part of the national secu-rity issue, but nuclear weapons andmissiles are more serious matters.However, when we say that humanlife is of the greatest importance, bothof them are issues of equal value.Even if the nuclear development issueand missile issue may be solved,Japan takes the stance that it cannotprovide economic cooperation to NorthKorea along with South Korea, cooper-ating with the U.S., as long as theabduction issue remains unsolved.That is why the Japanese delegationinsists the phrase "in a comprehen-sive manner" at the Talks.

It is impossible to provide economicsupport as agreed at the Six-WayTalks, while enforcing economic sanc-tions. Compromised theory will losethe consistency in diplomatic negotia-tions. Should economic sanctions beimplemented, that should clearlyreflect the Japanese nation and peo-ple, in order to force North Korea tothink, "We will be in big trouble with-out economic support from Japan.We'd better listen to them." It isunderstandable to use that as thefinal leverage for diplomacy to moveNorth Korea.

Assess the Course that the "North" IsTaking

However, without observing the sit-uation of the Six-Way Talks, takingsteps toward the enforcement of eco-

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nomic sanctions because public opin-ion says so, we ended up engaging ineconomic support along with SouthKorea due to pressure from the U.S. inless than a month of enforcing sanc-tions. This sort of situation must beavoided. It will put an end to Japan'sdiplomacy. At the moment, economicsanctions are stalled in order to ascer-tain the diplomatic situation that weare in, including the Six-Way Talks.Such measures should be properlyprepared legally so that Japan isalways ready to play whenever theright time comes. If North Korearesponds positively and honestly tothe 150 items of information requiredand questions sent from Japan, mini-mal economic cooperation can be feasi-ble even if the problem has not beentotally resolved. However, if it ignoresthe abduction issue and no progress ismade, we have the option of not par-ticipating in economic cooperation oroffering economic support regardlessof any external pressures by saying,"We cannot move on unless yourespond to the abduction issue."Therefore, we either implement eco-nomic sanctions immediately or assessthe situation involving North Korea tonegotiate with leverage.

The Japanese government is aboutto select the latter option for politicalreasons. Japan's status is to seek acomplete elimination of nuclearweapons programs in North Korea,which is the same as the U.S. It is the

same stance as the U.S. RepublicanParty, which has the strictest princi-ples. The U.S. delegation participat-ing in the Six-Way Talks has a moreflexible attitude, but Japan cannot goalong with such an attitude. Japan ispressuring North Korea to promisecomplete nuclear elimination in thesame manner as the fundamentalismof the Republican Party does. In caseNorth Korea accepts that, Japanshould propose another issue -theabduction- by saying that nothing canbe done unless it is solved. Japan istrying to sustain the position that sup-port and cooperation is feasible withreservations so that North Korea willrespond to the abduction issue posi-tively.

Even though the abduction issuewas not mentioned in the final agree-ment, as Japan's option, Japan wouldhave to sustain the status that unlessany progress is made on the abductionissue, Japan cannot cooperate even ifKEDO were to be resumed and eco-nomic support were started due toprogress made in resolving thenuclear development issue. Thismeans that Japan cannot implementeconomic sanctions diplomaticallyuntil the situation is clear. We are onhold until any overall framework isestablished. Therefore, the functionsof "dialogue and pressure" are also onhold, I believe.

A nation must be iron-fisted. Itmust take the whole nation's benefits

into consideration. Otherwise, we willface fatal problems that the nation'sprecious taxes are used to support andassist North Korea's badly weakenedregime. It is necessary to assess theentire situation.

Priority Goes to the N-WeaponsDevelopment Issue Rather thanHuman Rights

Q: Since the talks began focusing onthe issue of nuclear development, theissue of human rights in North Koreahas not been mentioned that often. Asa matter of fact, as long as the regimeof Kim Jong-il continues, the issue ofhuman rights remains. We have notheard much about such developments,recently. What is happening?Morimoto: I imagine that humanrights issues are still a major concernfor Americans, but the U.S. Congressis more concerned with the lack ofprogress made on the nuclear develop-ment issue. That is why they're pres-suring the Republican Party, and thepressure is quite intense. The Bushadministration has let North Koreabuy time for nuclear possession anddevelopment little-by-little by delayingits decision for the past five years.This negligence is serious, and if thesituation is left unchanged, Iran maysucceed in its nuclear development.Because Iran is Islamic, it is possiblefor them to hand over nuclearweapons to Islamic terrorists, andeven North Korea may opt to do the

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same, as it is in a critical financial sit-uation now. It is, therefore, mandato-ry to stop nuclear development bythese two countries, and the U.S.Congress is urging the government totake a firm grip on the issues.Nuclear issues come before humanrights issues, and any development inthe nuclear issue comes first. This isthe first factor. Americans have theissue of human rights in mind, but thefirst priority goes to the nuclear issue.

Another troublesome focus goes toChina. If the issue of human rights isto be discussed in multilateral talks, itwill bounce back to China, which willnever take a position as conferencechair if human rights issues are dis-cussed at the multilateral level. AsChina has a different definition ofhuman rights, as soon as Japan men-tions the abduction issue, they willflatly refuse having the issue on theagenda. It is fine as far as this issue isdiscussed within Japan, but if Japanmentions a word of it at the Six-WayTalks, the conference chair has noposition on which to stand. Sayingthat the abduction issue is a matter oftwo nations or talks about terrorismmay be fine, but when it comes to theissue of human rights, China cannotaccept it.

Concluding Remarks: PoliticalAgendas Piling up in Japan

Morimoto: Today, I had the opportuni-ty to talk about the "Six-Way Talks."

In relation to awareness of the overallproblem in my mind, the Talks arejust a small part of it. The most diffi-cult problem that I think we are facingnow is how the politics should be car-ried along in the coming year.Suppose that the postal service priva-tization bill were to get through themost difficult part this week and thatan extraordinary Diet session was tobe held this fall, following the cabinetreshuffle. Prior to that, the Japan-U.S. summit would most likely beheld around September 14-16 whenthe prime minister attends the UnitedNations. After that, the foreign minis-ter takes its place and the agendachanges to UN Security Council pro-posal at the G4 Meeting. I have a feel-ing that in this Japan-U.S. summit,which is to be held around mid-September, there will be an importantturning point where a certain pathmay be set for restructuring the U.S.forces stationed here.

Later, an extraordinary Diet sessionwill be held most likely in October, fol-lowed by budget compilation and anordinary Diet session. I am an out-sider, but when I think about whatsort of issues we have to deal with inthe coming year up to nextSeptember, we have an astoundingnumber of tasks and agendas withwhich we have to deal. We have polit-ical reform, political and monetaryissues, administrative reform, civil-service reform, the taxation system,

pensions, educational reform includ-ing amendment to the FundamentalLaw of Education, international rela-tionships between Japan and China,Japan-South Korea, Japan-NorthKorea, Japan-Russia, and Japan-U.S.relationship, as I mentioned earlier,which includes the BSE issue in theeconomy aspect, restructuring of U.S.forces and Six-Way Talks in securityand defense fields, the issue of obtain-ing a permanent seat in the UNSecurity Council, the anti-terrorismspecial law and Iraq special law,which is what to do with the Ground,Marine, and Air Self Defense Forcesthat we have deployed, and so on.

Today, the U.S. is facing a budgetdeficit of 670 billion dollars. The U.S.government is becoming a lame duckdue to a difficult relationship with theU.S. Congress. There is a possibilitythat once a new regime is establishedin Iraq by the end of the year, the U.S.will reduce the size of the U.S. forcesearly next year. On the other hand,since the UK was the target of terror-ist attacks, it plans to transfer half ofthe troops currently stationed in thesouthern Iraq to Afghanistan in orderto leverage the NATO troops who arewith the ISAF (International SecurityAssistant Force) in Afghanistan. Nowthis will get rid of the umbrella thatour Ground Self-Defense Forcedepends on for safety. In this situa-tion, it is inevitable that we will facethe issue of how to deal with the Iraq

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Special Law within this year. Lookingat the National Referendum Lawdefined in the Constitution, the gener-al law that sends our Self-DefenseForces overseas, and the FundamentalLaw on Emergency, each will evokebattles within the ruling party ratherthan battles between the ruling andopposition parties, I'm afraid. Nevermind the postal service privatizationissue. Important items are on thewaiting list. Unless all of these itemsare resolved, amendment to the consti-tution is still far from being achieved, Ibelieve. Japanese politics are in agrave state of affairs in the comingyear or two. In order to get throughwithout creating a political vacuum,the ruling party should behave in anorderly manner.

Result of Support Could Be a Threat?

Japan's Asian diplomacy is becom-ing very difficult. As the foreign min-ister attended ARF, leaving himunable to attend ASEAN, Japan hasbeen widely criticized by ASEAN.

Japan does not seem to have any asso-ciates in Asia. In fact, on the issue ofobtaining a permanent seat at the UNSecurity Council, there was not even asingle country in Asia that was willingto be a cosponsor. Domestic issuesand all the relationships with sur-rounding countries are difficult, andthere are no associates among theAsian countries. National strength isweakening, and the population isdecreasing. Energy supply is becom-ing difficult, and the defense budgetmust be cut. In such circumstances,how can we survive? Never mindNorth Korea. We have to review howwe could survive in Asia and get backinto shape. The Six-Way Talks is justone of those issues.

The bottom line of the Six-WayTalks is that we are pressed to makechoices of whether we should all helpthe Kim Jong-il regime survive, or,whether, while paying lip services, itis better to destroy it within a year orso and form a new unified nation. Itseems like all the speculations for this

proposition were out of focus at theseSix-Way Talks, and a completely dif-ferent dynamism came about fromwhat they had thought would result inan atmosphere in which everybodywants to help Kim Jong-il by listeningto his skillful diplomatic policy. As aresult, Japan is the only country thatis threatened by the nuclear weaponsdevelopment of North Korea. TheU.S. will not sense that threat becauseit is geographically distant. Chinaand South Korea do not sense anythreat whatsoever. Russia does noteven think of it a threat. Japan has toplay a stupid diplomacy role by payingthe most funding, and receiving thegreatest threat. The Six-Way Talksdoes not respond to this proposition ofwhy Japan should fall into such a situ-ation. We would like the governmentto think about what we're doing inJapan. We have to re-examinewhether what we're doing is reallycorrect. I would like you to think seri-ously by taking advantage of theopportunity of the Six-Way Talks.

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Efficient Plutonium Utilization IsNeeded

A dreamlike nuclear reactor, thefast breeder reactor (FBR) is the finalgoal for the peaceful uses of nuclearenergy. From the start of develop-ment of nuclear power, FBR develop-ment has been progressing, but this'dream' has not been realized yet. Ifwe only utilize light-water reactors(LWRs), namely, boiling water reac-tors (BWRs) and pressurized waterreactors (PWRs), which are currentlythe mainstream for nuclear powerplants, it is estimated that theamount of uranium resources con-firmed in the world will be used up in60 years. This is because we mainlyuse fissile uranium 235(U235), whichmakes up only 0.7% of uraniumresources. In the technology of peace-ful uses of nuclear energy, uranium238(U238), which is hard to burn andoccupies the majority of uranium at99.3%, can be converted to plutoniumand burned as fuel, if FBR is put intocommercial uses. If FBR were tobecome the mainstream for nuclearpower plants, uranium resourcescould be efficiently used for over 3,000years, which is approximately 60times longer than with LWR. FBR isthus quite a dreamlike nuclear reac-

tor.Until the commercial uses of FBR,

conventional LWRs will continue tobe used, so taking into considerationthe amount of uranium resources, weare impatiently waiting for the real-

ization of FBR. However, a prototypereactor "Monju" (Tsuruga City, FukuiPrefecture) built to test the practicaloperation of FBR, as you know, had asodium-leakage accident, and wewere not even able to repair it for 10

Light-Water Reactors to Be Breeder Reactors!- R-BWR of Hitachi, Ltd. -

BWR

<Present BWR>

<R-BWR>

Fuel Assembly

Steam Dryer

Steam-Water Separator

Core

Control Rod Drive Mechanism

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years. It is a development reactorthrown into a sad situation havingbeen used as a pawn for politicalgames.

From over 10 years ago, the engi-neers of Hitachi, Ltd. started makingefforts to come up with some ideasuntil the realization of FBR. Simplysaid, the idea is to produce the sameamount of plutonium as burned fuelby modifying the configurations of thecore fuel of BWRs.

Flexibility: "Breeding", "Conversion"and "Burning"

In LWRs, which occupy close to90% of the world's nuclear electricitygenerating capacity, the nuclear fuelcontaining 4-5% low-enriched U235

(the rest is U238 at 96-95%) is used.This fuel burns for 3-4 years (differingdepending on if it is BWR or PWR) inthe reactor, and during this time,2.5% of the U238 which is hard to burnis converted into plutonium, and thisplutonium also burns. As a result,until the fuel is removed, 63% of thepower is generated by fissions of U235,30% from plutonium fission convertedfrom U238, and 7% from U238.

In operating reactors, the transfor-mation from U238 to plutonium iscalled "conversion", and the ratio ofthe "converted fuel amount" producedin the reactor to the "combustible fuelamount" put into the core at first iscalled the "conversion ratio."Conventionally, the conversion ratioof the LWR is approximately 0.6. Inother words, an amount equal to 60%of the amount of the combustible fuelput into the core at first is newly cre-

ated in the reactor. This newly creat-ed fuel is plutonium. The Hitachiengineers have conceived a reactorcore which increases the conversionratio to "1.03" by using the sameLWR as before. The differencebetween a conversion ratio of "0.6"and "1.03" is remarkable. As men-tioned above, this is the differencebetween using up all uraniumresources in 60 years, and being ableto use them for over 3,000 years.When the conversion ratio exceeds"1", it is called "breeding". In HitachiLtd, this rector is named Resource-Renewable BWR (R-BWR).

As for the dimensions of the reactorcore, the diameter of the core is 1.4times greater than that of the conven-tional LWRs, and the length (activelength) is 34% - making the shapeshort and fat. A big difference can befound in the shape of the fuel assem-bly. As shown in the figure, the crosssection of the fuel assembly is hexago-nal, and the fuel rods are arranged init more densely than those of conven-tional ones. As for the fuel, not onlyuranium fuel like conventional LWR,but a mixed fuel of plutonium anduranium (MOX fuel) is used from thebeginning. MOX fuel is also beingplanned for use in current LWRs, butbecause this R-BWR is designed touse 6 times the amount of plutoniumand can perform "breeding", plutoni-um can be used effectively.

Moreover, the significant thingabout this reactor is that, not only isit used as a "breeding reactor", but, ofcourse, since it is not different from aconventional LWR, it is used as a ura-

nium fuel combustion reactor and a"high conversion reactor" with a con-version ratio of about 0.9. In order touse R-BWR as a "breeder reactor", aspecial reprocessing plant necessaryfor commercial FBR, and a MOX fuelfabrication plant are needed, but this"high conversion reactor" fuel can bemade in the Rokkasho reprocessingplant for LWRs where field tests arebeing performed currently, and in theRokkasho MOX fuel plant where abuilding program is in progress. The"key" is to be able to flexibly responduntil the new reactor fuel cycle facilityfor FBR is built.

Foresight of Electric PowerCompanies Expected

The other advantages of R-BWR,especially this "breeder reactor" arethat, since the fuel efficiency is betterthan with normal LWRs, it can oper-ate approximately 1.5 times longer. Itcan also lengthen the amount of timebetween periodic inspections, and thecost of electricity generation will prob-ably decrease. Moreover, like FBR,since transuranic elements (neptuni-um, americium, curium) of exceeding-ly long life, which are produced in thereactor, can also be burned in thereactor, the amount of high-levelradioactive waste can be decreased.A big advantage is that, whereas forthe FBR, liquid sodium for the pri-mary coolant, and water for the sec-ondary coolant are used, the primaryand secondary coolants for this R-BWR are both water, so the technolo-gy of operation which has been culti-vated for 40 years in our country can

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be used directly.The disadvantages, as mentioned

above, are that if you use R-BWR as a"breeder reactor", the development ofa fuel cycle facility similar to FBR willbe necessary. However, if you changeyour perspective, the fuel cycle facilitycan proceed with investigation devel-opment until commercialization ofFBR and, though it may be offensiveto the developers, even if we give upFBR commercialization, it is still nota waste.

Moreover, a big problem for thisreactor is which company will investin it. In our country as well as othernuclear power developed countries,electric power companies are general-ly conservative, and even if the reac-tor was an extension of the currentLWR technology, there would be hesi-tation towards installing a new powerreactor. The reason for this isassumed to be that, until now,nuclear electricity generation hasbeen greatly criticized for even smallbreakdowns, the electric power com-panies are nervous about the nucleartechnology, and sustaining the pres-ent status is seemingly desired.However, if we continue to use LWRsas we are currently, when we considerthat the U.S. and many of othernuclear power developed countriesstarted steering nuclear power policyforward, and that China and

Southeast Asian nations are eager tobuild nuclear power plants, it isexpected that soon, the price of urani-um resources will escalate similarlyto oil prices. As an electrical powercompany operating nuclear powerplants for over 40 years, it is hopedthat effective utilization of uraniumresources will be taken into consider-ation, and that R-BWR will be consid-ered as an option for future reactors.

Another problem is that the currentBWR of the world make up one fourthof the total of already installed LWRs.They are especially concentrated inthe U.S. and in Japan. If that is allthere are, it means that there areonly a few customers. Moreover, highcosts likely make it impossible toreplace the reactor core of BWR cur-rently in operation to the R-BWRreactor core. In our country, it isassumed that the next generationreactor will be built in place of thecurrent BWR around 2030 when theBWR currently in operation will berebuilt. It is worrisome that it maytake too long for its realization, andalso whether or not there will be anyprogress in the demonstration of tech-nology during that time.

Conventional but New Line of Reform

In our country, the advanced ther-mal reactor (ATR) "Fugen", whichburns while generating plutonium,

has been developed by current JapanNuclear Cycle Development Institute(to be joined with the Japan AtomicEnergy Research Institute in Octoberto become new "Japan Atomic EnergyAgency (JAEA)"), which is theresearch and development organiza-tion of the government, as an interimnuclear reactor between LWRs andFBRs and, moreover, as a measureduring the delay in the developmentof the FBR. However, there was noelectric power company that couldinstall the technology/reactor, andbecause of this, "Fugen" terminatedthe initial operation and preparationshave just been made towards decom-missioning. R-BWR can be consid-ered to be a technological alternativeto this direction. The big differencefrom "Fugen" is that LWR technologycan be used directly. However, thecore internal structure of R-BWR isnew, and a demonstration test ofsome sort will be necessary.

However, it is extremely importantthat the technology and strategy werenot fixed to conventional ways, and R-BWR with a new flexible nuclearreactor technology was put forward.We are waiting for a more concreteembodiment in the future. Moreover,we look forward to R-BWR having ahigh level of interest among theworld's electric power companies.


CNFC Information

Toward the Compatible Pursuit of Stable Energy Supplyand Prevention of Global Warming

- The 14th CNFC General Meeting Held -

On June 8, the 14the GeneralMeeting of the Council for NuclearFuel Cycle (CNFC) was held atKasumigaseki in Tokyo, and the activi-ty and financial reports for FY2004, aswell as the program and budget planfor FY2005 were approved. In addi-tion, several changes in Directors wereauthorized.

• Activity Program for FY2005As Russia ratified the Kyoto

Protocol, it went into force on February6, 2005. The Kyoto Protocol has beenratified by 140 nations plus the EU,but the U.S. who is emitting one-fourthof the world's CO2, has refused to join itfor reasons that it would counter itsnational benefits. This U.S. position isa major issue to be solved.

In order to achieve stable supply ofenergy in the world while preventingglobal warming, it is necessary to effi-ciently utilize various energy sourcesthat do not emit CO2, or emit very lowlevels, including natural energy.Among these energy sources, nuclearenergy is a very important and essen-tial option for future stable supply ofenergy. It is necessary to promotepeaceful uses of nuclear energy, pro-moting nuclear non-proliferation invarious countries in the world in orderto attain a stable energy supply.

In order to increasingly promote touse nuclear generated electricity in theworld, countries that operate large-scaled nuclear power plants such asJapan must expand uses of uraniumresources efficiently. For this purpose,we must complete all nuclear fuel cyclefacilities being operated and built inRokkasho-mura, and implement thisproject smoothly.

To deepen further understanding onnuclear energy policy and nuclear fuelcycle policy in Japan, the Council pro-vides accurate and information, easy tounderstand, on these matters amongthe Diet Members, citizens of regionswhere facilities are located, and all theJapanese people.

We will continue to provide informa-tion on our Council activities throughour bulletin " Plutonium", and also onour website, domestically and interna-tionally.

• Changes of DirectorsThe following changes of the

Directors were acknowledged. YujiYamamoto, Member of the House ofRepresentatives, was appointed to ViceMinister of Finance and once resignedfrom the Board of the Council, but asthe political appointment was dis-solved he was re-commissioned to ourDirector. In the same manner, Taro

Kimura, Member of the House ofRepresentatives was appointed toParliamentary Secretary forAgriculture, Forestry and Fisheriesand resigned from the CNFC Board,was re-commissioned to our Director.

Scientists and researchers whodeveloped technologies for peacefuluses of nuclear energy 50 years agoworked to promote a stable energy sup-ply in the world. In Japan as well,when the first commercial power reac-tor, Tokai Power Station of JapanAtomic Power Co., started operation in1966, in the hearts of those nuclearpower related personnel was the feel-ing that they had finally found athread to resolving the future energyissue. Now, it is necessary to furtherdevelop the efficient use of uraniumresources in order to increase peacefuluses of nuclear energy in the world.We believe that it is an important stepin the process of nuclear non-prolifera-tion for non-nuclear weapons statessuch as Japan to establish a nuclearfuel cycle, and actively proceed withthe recycling of nuclear fuel and effi-cient use of uranium resources. Weask for your continued cooperationwith and support for the activities ofCNFC.

In New York Stock Market, the price ofcrude oil has reached record-high price of 70dollars a barrel. This is due to the concernthat there will be a huge shortage in oil sup-ply. Besides fuel, oil can be used as an ingre-dient for a variety of products, and the soaringprices will affect a wide range of industries. Itis clear that we cannot plan on a stable supplyof energy as long as our electric power sourceis dependent upon oil. In the end, nuclearpower, which can stably supply a largeamount of energy and does not emit carbondioxide, is absolutely essential, is not it? Inthe hot and humid summer of Japan, whenwe have no air conditioning due to a poweroutage, we are filled with gratitude for nuclearpower as well as electricity.

In order to reduce greenhouse gases, inJapan, the Ministry of the Environment iscalling for air conditioners to be set at 28

degrees centigrade, and for people to dresswith no necktie nor jacket in order to be com-fortable in offices. This is called COOL-BIZcampaign, and it signifies a new businessstyle for coolly passing the summer. In thegovernment district, there are many people inthe cool-biz style, but are we the only oneswho feel that something is missing eventhough all they have done is to remove theirjackets and neckties? A style in which any-one feels cool, and which appears cool to oth-ers is apparently not so easy. I admire theBarong Tagalog, which is the formal wear inthe Philippines, and Hawaii's Aloha shirts,and find them to be refreshing.

On July 4, The U.S. National Aeronauticsand Space Administration (NASA) succeed-ed in impacting the core of the comet Tempel1 with the bronze-aluminum alloy impactorfrom the Mercury probe Deep Impact, which

was launched in January. From the impactdata, a breakthrough discovery in the mecha-nism of solar systems and the birth of planetsis anticipated. In addition, on July 29, NASAannounced that it had discovered a celestialbody beyond Pluto that is approximately 1.5times the size of it. The presence of this plan-et body has been predicted from before.Earth now has a new sibling.

The Discovery, which Japan's Mr. SoichiNoguchi has boarded, has completed its tasksin space, and has come home safely. Space isa realm that continues into infinity and whichwe cannot easily step into, and while weanticipate scientific breakthroughs, we cannothelp but feel something mystical about it. It isfor this reason, perhaps, that the curiosity andinterest that people have for space will neverend.

Editor's Postscripts

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