costs and potentials of chp and dsm ragwitz isi (green-x... · 2016. 4. 20. · project workshop...

Project Workshop Green-X Renewable Energy House, September 23rd 2003, Brussels Green-X

Mario RagwitzFraunhofer-ISI

Costs and potentials of CHP and DSMCosts and potentials of CHP and DSM


Potentials and costs of CHP and DSM for Potentials and costs of CHP and DSM for GHG reductionGHG reduction

! CHP and DSM offer large, cost efficient potentials for GHG reduction in the EU-15

! CHP and DSM belong to the most complex input variables of the model Green-X because a large number of sectors, sub-sectors and technologies have to be considered

! A number of new technologies might become cost effective by 2020, e.g. fuel cells

! Especially potentials in different sectors are highly country specific


CHP Potential by country for 2020CHP Potential by country for 2020

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

AT BE DK FIN FR GE GRE IRL ITA LUX NL POR SP SWE UK

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty [M

W]

Source: Future Cogen


CHP potential by sector for 2020CHP potential by sector for 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

AT BE DK FIN FR GE GRE IRL ITA LUX NL POR SP SWE UK

Maximum potential (installed capacity) CHP 2020

Industry > 50 MWIndustry 5-50 MWIndustry 1-5 MW commercial 1-5 MW commercial 100 kW-1 MWcommercial 15-100 kWdomestic < 15 kWdistrict heating systems

Source: Future Cogen


CHP TechnologiesCHP Technologies• CC: Combined cycle (gas and steam turbine)

• CC-B Combined Cycle Backpressure

• ST: Steam turbine

• ST-B Steam turbine with backpressure

• GE: Gas engine

• GT: Gas turbine

• DE Diesel engine

• PEFC: Polymer electrolyte fuel cells

• PAFC: Phosphoric acid fuel cells

• MCFC: Molten carbonate fuel cells

• SOFC: Solid oxide fuel cells

In the industry, commercial and domestic sector


CHP CHP -- efficienciesefficiencies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1950

1953

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1995

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2001

Year

effic

ienc

y el

ectr

icity

[%]

CCPP - ele only

STPP - ele only

Large CCPP - CHP

Small GE - CHP

Medium CCPP - CHP

GT - ele only

Small CCPP - CHP

Medium GT - CHP

Small GT - CHP

Electric efficiencies of CHP plants are usually lower than those of conventional power plants


TechnoTechno--Economic data for CHP plantsEconomic data for CHP plants

2020 current technique GT CC CCplant-size [MWe] 5,0 100,0 200,0total investment costs [€/kWe] 591,0 674,9 582,9O&M-costs [€/(kW*a)] 73,9 39,7 29,6full load hours [h/a] 2.300,0 2.650,0 2.900,0efficiency electricity [%] 31,2 42 (52) 45 (56)efficiency heat [%] 54,3 46,0 44,0total efficiency [%] 85,5 88,0 89,0heat to power ratio [GWhth/GWhe] 1,7 1,1 1,0life time [a] 30,0 30,0 30,0

Actual costs of electricity from CHP depend on:

• fuel price• heat price• techno-economic plant data as shown below

EL

HEAT

EL

MOFUEL

el

FIXVARIABLE

HCRFIR

HCC

qCCC **10001000& +

∗+=+= −


Electricity demand Electricity demand -- baseline scenariobaseline scenario

0

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3500

2001

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2003

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2020

Year

Gro

ss e

lect

ricity

dem

and

[TW

h]

UK

SE

ES

PT

NL

LU

IT

IE

GR

DE

FR

FI

DK

BE

AT

Source: Shared Analysis (2003)


DSM ActivitiesDSM ActivitiesMain Sectors for DSM activities in the electricity sector are:! Industry! Households! Service sector

each containing various sub-sectors, for example the industry sector includes:

– Iron & Steel– Non-ferrous metals– Engineering– Foundries (including iron/steel and non-ferrous metals foundries)– Food– Chemicals– Glass and Glass Products– Ceramics– Cement– Cross sector technologies - including compressed air, lighting, refrigeration


Cost curve for DSM MeasuresCost curve for DSM Measures

Electricity demand [GWh]

pM

DDSM

0

Assessment of achievable

potential year n

0El

ectri

city

Pric

e [€

/MW

h]

= le

vel a

t whi

ch

DSM

act

ivity

will

be

impl

emen

ted

Cost efficient DS activities assuming a

market price pM

Not cost efficient DS activities assuming a

market price pM


DataData--Base DSMBase DSM

Band Name

Long term potential energy saving

compared to BAU 2020

Share of realisable

energy saving

potental compared to

long-term potential

Maximum yearly

realisable penetration of energy

saving compared to

BAU

Level of electricity

costs where DSM

measure is economical efficienct

Additional Investment costs year n

Energy saving per unit service

output

Additional O&M costs

independend from

electricity consumption

Life time of implemented technology

Life time alternative

option

Comment alterntechnology / end

[GWh/year][% of long-term energy

saving][GWh/year] [€/MWh] [€/ unit

output][MWh / unit

output][€/ unit output] [years] [years]

GER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM2 1533,3 1% 15,33 24,17 548,83 2,667 0,00 20 20 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) stable cathodeGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM3 520,7 5% 26,03 15,24 105 0,906 0,00 15 15 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) good housekeeGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM4 773,1 1% 7,73 6,97 85 1,344 0,00 25 25 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) improved proceGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM5 442,4 3% 14,75 17,07 99,89 0,769 0,00 15 15 Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) best practiseGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM6 72,5 4% 2,72 0,00 4,2 0,045 -1,40 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace control systemGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM7 72,5 3% 2,42 17,51 0,7 0,045 0,70 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace monitoring & taGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM8 143,3 4% 5,37 1,25 0,85 0,089 0,00 15 15 Al: Further Treatment Furnace improved manaGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM9 13,2 2% 0,20 24,39 6,7 0,036 0,00 15 15 Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) impr. refineryGER-E-DSM-N-I-NFM10 21,9 2% 0,53 55,32 25,2 0,060 0,00 15 15 Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) scrap preheatin

Sector/Subsector

Example of most important technology specific information


Example: NonExample: Non--FerrousFerrous--Metals Metals

Device Name of Energy Efficiency Technol-ogy

Al: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Reduced demand of anodesAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Stable cathodesAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Good housekeepingAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Improved processAl: Primary Smelting (Hall-Heroult) Best practiseAl: Further Treatment Furnace Control systemsAl: Further Treatment Furnace Monitoring & targetingAl: Further Treatment Furnace Improved managementAl: Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) Improved refineryAl: Sec. Smelting (Shaft furnace) Scrap preheatingCu: Further Treatment Furnace Rapid heatingZinc: Hydrometallic Zinc Process H2 diffusion anodesZinc: Hydrometallic Zinc Process Improved electrolysis material

Technologies considered:


Example: Potential Example: Potential -- NonNon--FerrousFerrous--MetalsMetals

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AT BE GE DK ESP FI FR GR IR IT LUX NL PT SWE UK

Elec

trici

ty S

avin

g Po

tent

ial [

GW

h/a]


Example: Cost Curve Example: Cost Curve -- NonNon--FerrousFerrous--MetalsMetals

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Saving Potential (GWh)

Cost

(€/M

Wh)

FRGE


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AT BE GE DK ESP FI FR GR IR IT LUX NL PT SWE UK

Elec

trici

ty S

avin

g Po

tent

ial [

GW

h/a]

Example: Potential Example: Potential -- Household AppliancesHousehold Appliances


Example: Cost Curve Example: Cost Curve -- Household AppliancesHousehold Appliances

0,00

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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Saving Potential (GWh)

Cost

(€/k

Wh)

PTGRDK


ConclusionsConclusions

! Only about one third of the overall European CHP potential is exploited, large potentials in small scale domestic and large scale industrial CHP

! Costs of electricity from CHP plants normally higher than from conventional power due to lower full load hours, lower electric efficiency, higher investment costs

! Large DSM potential with partially negative costs can be identified in the industry (especially Engineering, NFM, Iron&Steel and Chemicals) and in the household sector

costs and potentials of chp and dsm ragwitz isi (green-x... · 2016. 4. 20. · project workshop...

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