"cost/benefit of shares ipo" oleh @profroysembel at ipmi kalibata
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD
LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
Twitter/Instagram: @ProfRoySembel Facebook/LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
e-Newsletter: [email protected]
Cost/Benefit of Shares IPO
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AGENDA
• Opening / Introduction
• IPO: What / Why / How
• Empirical Evidence
• Discussion
• Concluding remark
3
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PROF. ROY SEMBEL, IR, MBA, PHDEDUCATION
1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude
1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia
MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours
1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance;
Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and
Heterogeneous Information”
1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta.
2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand
1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta.
1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of
Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate
(S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects:
Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative
Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management.
WORK EXPERIENCE
1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB.
1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam.
1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam
1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh.
1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian
Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI
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1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta
2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara,
Co-founder Indonesia Learning Institute (InLIne), Indonesia School of Life (InSchoOL)
2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk
2005- Professor in Financial Economics;
Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia
2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya,
2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Mobee Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia)
2007- Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI),
Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia
2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN)
Ketua Umum Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS)
2008 Board of Advisor UMN
2008-2009 Ketua Dewan Pembina Partai Barisan Nasional (BARNAS)
2008-2010 Chairman CAPITAL PRICE
2009-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH
2010-2012 Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange
2012- IPMI International Business School; Senior advisor, Vriens & Partners
Independent Commissioner, HITS & MCS International
2014- Chairman of Index Committee, Indeks Investor 33
Advisory Council, PLN Corporate UniversityMISCELLANEOUSSpeaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA, Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis
Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen & Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media
Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet.
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Pioneer Business School in Indonesia since 1984, courses delivered fully in English with case
study / interactive method of learning
The best internationalized private business school in Indonesia (Rated 3 Palms in 2014)
(http://www.eduniversal-ranking.com/business-school-university-ranking-in-indonesia.html)
The only Indonesian Business School in the top 100 business school in Asia 2015
(http://find-mba.com/most-popular/asia)
Highlights about IPMI International Business School
Asian Management
Conclave2015
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Relevant vs Rigor ?
IPMI IBS: Rigor AND Relevant
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Academic
Rigor
Business Relevance
IPMI IBS
• Case Study, English
• Power Talk
• GFP, CIP
• Business Simulation
• Investment Simulation
• iReCons ; LRC
• Global and Industry networks
• Alumni networks
• Balanced Faculty members
High
High
Low
Low
Power Talk and Seminar
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FACULTY MEMBERS: Academic Rigor + Business Relevance
OUTSTANDAING ALUMNI NETWORK
TESTIMONIAL E-MBA ALUMNI
EDUNIVERSAL RANKING
IPMI is the only Indonesian private business school
in 3 Palmes level
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DEAN’S MESSAGE FOR STAKEHOLDERS OF IPMI IBS: 7 H’s
• 2B Be Hopeful and Helpful
• 3U Use Heart, Head, and Hand
• 2S Stay Hungry and Humorous
Prof Roy Sembel16
KOMUNIKASI:
• E-mail: [email protected]
• Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel
• E-Newsletter: [email protected]
AGENDA
• Opening / Introduction
• IPO: What / Why / How
• Empirical Evidence
• Discussion
• Concluding remark
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IPO = Initial Public Offering
• Penawaran sekuritas kepada masyarakat
• Dilakukan oleh perusahaan (Emiten) untuk
menjual sekuritas / efek (biasanya saham)
kepada masyarakat
• Berdasarkan tata cara yang diatur oleh UU
Pasar Modal dan Peraturan
Pelaksanaannya diawasi oleh OJK
• Biasanya dilanjutkan dengan pencatatan
sekuritas untuk diperdagangkan di bursa
efek (BEI)
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FOUR CORNER STONES OF
CORPORATE FINANCE?McKinsey.com
1. Core of Value Principle
2. Conservation of Value Principle
3. Expectation Treadmill
4. Best owner Principle
When considering IPO, remember those principles
Why Do Companies Go Public?
• Fund Growth Plans
• Currency for M&A
• Recapitalization (retire debt)
• Liquidity
• Employee compensation
• Enhanced Image
– Landlords
– Creditors/Suppliers
– Recruiting/Retention
Penawaran Umum Perdana
Strategis Keuangan
Tujuan non-finansial
Mengoptimalkan kegiatan usaha
Antisipasi munculnya peraturan yang lebih ketat
Struktur Terbaik
Tujuan finansial
Kondisi pasar yang baik/timing
Harga optimal
Struktur TerbaikMeningkatkan nilai pemegang saham
Penghematan pajak
Kesesuaian dengan peraturan
Bapepam & peraturan lainnya
Dilusi
Strategic Aspects of Public Offering
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IPO Process
• Underwriter Selection
• Registration
• Marketing and Book Building
• Pricing
• After Market Activities
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Before IPO During IPO After IPO
STAGES OF IPO
Menentukan Tujuan
Penilaian Kesiapan (Due
Dilligence)
Corporate Plan
Restrukturisasi
Persiapan Data Keuangan
Seleksi Profesi Penunjang
Penyusunan Jadwal
Familiarisasi Peraturan Pasar
Modal
RUPS
Penyusunan Pernyataan
Pendaftaran:
Proyeksi Keuangan
Laporan Keuangan
Comfort Letter
Legal Opinion
Prospektus
Agreements
Penyerahan Pernyataan
Pendaftaran dan Pemasaran
Publik Ekspose
Pernyataan Pendaftaran
Dinyatakan Efektif
Ketaatan Pelaporan
Keterbukaan dan Pemerataan
Informasi
Menghindari Benturan
Kepentingan
Ketaatan Penggunaan Dana
dan Pernyataan Lainnya
Dalam Prospektus
Membentuk Layanan Kepada
Investor dan Pihak Terkait
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FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS ARE KEY
TO REALIZE VALUE
2. GO VS NO GO
Rewarding winners
1. SCREENING IDEAS
Separating winners and
losers
3. FUNDING OR
SELLING OUT
4. BUSINESS RESULTS
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Kerangka Kerja Dasar
Pemahaman
Perusahaan
Faktor Internal
Faktor Eksternal
Analisa SWOTAlternatif
Restrukturisasi
Memilih alternatif
terbaik
Penilaian Saham
Perusahaan
Atas dasar:
•Efisiensi Biaya
•Penghematan pajak
•Penyederhanaan proses
•Memaksimalkan nilai pemegang saham
•Kesesuaian dengan Peraturan
•Daya tarik untuk penanam modal
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IPO
Valuation
Issue/Risk Analysis vs IPO valuation
Economic & Monetary
Condition
The Indonesian
Banking Industry
Capital Market
Sentiment
Government
Regulation
Legal aspects
Financial
Accounting Process
Accuracy &
Timeliness of F/S
Good Corporate
Governance
Capital Planning
Divestment/Dilution
strategies
Financial Accounting
Process Improvement
Portfolio Asset
Internal and external factors Issue/risk mitigationFinancial and Process
Environment
Information
Technology - MIS
Accounting standard
compliance
Operational - effectiveness
system & procedures
Asset Quality
IPO candidate evaluation:
Company Characteristics
• Growth Prospects
• Predictability of Results
• Management Team
• Historical Track Record – Size;Profitability
• First Mover Advantage
• Sponsorship
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Analysis of Internal Factors
Visi, Misi, dan Tujuan jangka panjang
Strategi Operasi/Investasi Strategi Permodalan
Pendapatan Pajak Ekuitas
Strategi dan
Kebijaksanaan
Faktor
Pendorong
SDM, Teknologi, Cabang/Unit dan ModalSumber Daya
Kinerja Keuangan
Beban
Analisis Faktor Internal
IPO Evaluation:
Sector/Market Characteristics
• Overall Size
• Growth Rate
• Competitive Dynamics
• Comparable Companies’ Performance
• Institutional Appetite
Analysis of External Factors
Pendatang
baru
Produk pengganti
Pem
beli
Pem
aso
k
• ••
Kompetisi
IPO Evaluation:
Market Conditions
• Backlog
• Cash Inflows to Mutual Funds
• Deals Pricing Below/Within/Above Range
• Withdrawn vs. Completed Offerings
• Market Performance of Recent IPOs
• Stable Economic Climate
IPO Evaluation:
Underwriter
• Research Expertise
• Distribution Capabilities
• Corporate Finance Focus
• Chemistry
• Geography (retail offices)
Pitch Book
• Executive Summary
• Capital Markets Update
• Company Positioning
• Valuation
• Structure and Timing of IPO Process
• Track Record of Investment Bank
• Team Members Commitment
• References
Prospectus• Cover
• Summary
• The Compnay
• Risk Factors
• Use of Proceeds
• Dividend Policy
• Capitalization
• Dilution
• Selected Financial Data
• Management Discussion
• The Business
• Management and Security Holders
• Description of Securities
Registration Statement
• Prospectus
• Exhibits– Underwriting Agreement
– Articles of Incorporation
– Opinion of Company Counsel
– Stock Option Plan(s)
– Employment Agreements
– Registration Rights Agreements
– Material Contracts
– Computation of Earnings per Share
– Other supporting materials
Life As a Public Company
• Reporting– Financial Reports, Press Releases, Conference Calls,
Forward-looking Statements
• Trading Blackouts
• BOD Liability
• Investor Relations
• Secondary Offerings– Additional Cash
– Enhance the Float
– Orderly Exit for Large Holders
AGENDA
• Opening / Introduction
• IPO: What / Why / How
• Empirical Evidence
• Discussion
• Concluding remark
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EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON IPO
Empirical evidence: Ibbotson (1975): P1 > Po
Instant Profit Overnight
Underpricing? Principal Agent, Winner’s Curse, Signaling, Overreaction
Ritter (1991) Inferior Performance Overtime NOT underpricing
Sembel (1996)
IPO Anomalies Truncated Excess Supply, Heterogeneous Info
Withdrawn IPO (WIPO)
Diskusi:
IPO = Dana Murah ?
Case: IPO GARUDA, KRAKATAU STEEL
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IPO Initial Return (“Underpricing”)
Instant ProfitIPO Underpricing
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
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80
19
81
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82
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83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
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88
19
89
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90
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91
19
92
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93
19
94
19
95
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96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
Years
Un
derp
ric
ing
%
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urc
e: R
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ay R
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We
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o,
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ctivity,
Pricin
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Long-Run IPO Performance:
Inferior
Year IPOs
Market
Adjusted
Size and Book-to-
Market Adjusted
1980 88.20% 35.50% 17.10%
1981 12.80% -26.20% -7.40%
1982 32.20% -36.50% -48.70%
1983 15.40% -38.70% 2.50%
1984 27.70% -51.30% 3.00%
1985 7.60% -39.50% 7.30%
1986 18.60% -20.40% 14.30%
1987 -1.80% -18.90% 4.50%
1988 55.70% 8.30% 51.30%
1989 51.10% 16.80% 32.50%
1990 12.20% -34.10% -32.40%
1991 31.50% -1.70% 5.80%
1992 34.80% -2.30% -19.40%
1993 44.90% -7.80% -23.90%
1994 74.10% -8.30% 1.00%
1995 24.80% -62.30% -14.10%
1996 25.60% -57.00% 8.60%
1997 67.70% 6.80% 41.00%
1998 27.10% 9.10% 12.20%
1999 -46.20% -32.90% -74.20%
2000 -64.70% -36.40% -42.60%
Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return
Periods IPOs
Market
Adjusted
Size and Book-to-
Market Adjusted
1980-1989 20.80% -24.70% 6.90%
1990-1994 44.70% -7.20% -12.70%
1995-1998 36.00% -32.30% 11.60%
1999-2000 -53.80% -34.30% -61.20%
Average 3-year Buy-and-Hold Return
AGENDA
• Opening / Introduction
• IPO: What / Why / How
• Empirical Evidence
• Discussion
• Concluding remark
42
43
CASE DISCUSSION
IPO = Dana Murah ?
Buying IPO shares:
Is it a good investment for investors?
AGENDA
• Opening / Introduction
• IPO: What / Why / How
• Empirical Evidence
• Discussion
• Concluding remark
44
45
Advantages vs Disadvantages
of IPOAdvantages:
1. Access to capital markets
2. Improved liquidity for shareholders
3. Allow original owners to diversify
4. Monitored by external capital markets
5. Generate information from capital markets
6. Enhance credibility of company
Disadvantages:
1. Expensive out of pocket costs
2. High after IPO costs of dealing with shareholders
3. Competitors get easy access of company’s information
4. Public pressure
IPO
• Instant Profit Overnight
– Underpricing?
– Can retail investors make abnormal profit?
• Inferior Profit Overtime
– When to buy?
• Not cheap fund, but flexible fund for
issuers
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