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Cost of living trends in Australia over the period 2011 to 2015 Executive Summary Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd 27 July 2017

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Cost of living trends in Australia over the period 2011 to

2015 – Executive Summary

Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd

27 July 2017

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Executive Summary

Despite a period of continuing economic growth and low inflation, many Australian households

are experiencing significant pressures on their cost of living. The purpose of this report, which

has been prepared for (and in conjunction with) Coles, is to examine cost of living trends in

Australia. It has a particular focus on how cost of living impacts vary across geographic regions.

This report draws on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (including unpublished data

commissioned from the ABS for this report), the National Centre for Social and Economic

Modelling (NATSEM) and research from social policy groups, consumer groups and business

surveys. The report’s findings also draw on analysis of customer spending behaviour in Coles

supermarket stores across the country.

The report comprises three areas of analysis:

Part 1 reviews the existing reports and research on cost of living trends in Australia and the

behavioural changes households make to address cost of living impacts

Part 2 illustrates and analyses cost of living trends over the period 2011 to 2015 (being the

period for which relevant data was available) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level

Part 3 sets out analysis undertaken by Coles in relation to customer spending behaviour in

specific Coles supermarkets across Australia.

The findings of these three areas of analysis are outlined below.

Part 1 – Cost of living trends in Australia

Recent publications and research provide an insight into how households both perceive and

respond to cost of living pressures. The relevant reports and research include material from state

and territory branches of the Australian Council of Social Services which specifically focus on

cost of living trends in relation to low-income and disadvantaged households, and low and

middle-income households with dependent children.

The key themes we have identified in relation to cost of living trends from the published reports

and research include the following:

Cost of living impacts have been greater for lower income households: While the cost of

living increased for all households over the relevant period, specific types of households

have experienced greater impacts than others. Specifically, the impacts have been greater for

low income households, due to a higher proportion of their expenditure being spent on items

with the most significant price increases over this period

Households have been reducing expenditure on both essential and non-essential items:

Surveys of consumers indicate that while the majority of households have responded to cost

of living trends by reducing their consumption of non-essential goods (such as entertainment

and travel), some households have also reduced their consumption of essential goods (such

as groceries and transport)

Households will substitute between classes of items to make ends meet: Changes in the

consumption of particular items will not always be directly driven by the relative prices of

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those items. For example, spending on groceries and food items was reported in consumer

surveys as being one of the most common sources of expenditure reduction, despite

relatively low food and grocery price inflation over the period.

Part 2 – Illustrating cost of living trends across Australia at the LGA level

To understand how cost of living trends vary on a geographic basis, Cost of Living Scores

(COLS) have been calculated for the period from March 2011 to June 2015 for individual LGAs.

The COLS have been derived for 537 LGAs using a methodology that combines ABS and

NATSEM data. On the basis of these COLS, LGAs were then ranked nationally by those most

impacted to those least impacted over the relevant period. This national ranking then provided

the basis for segmenting LGAs into quintiles to identify the relative impact of cost of living

trends on a geographic basis across Australia (see Figure E.1 below).

The main finding is that cost of living pressures have increased across all regions, but the

pressures have been greatest in LGAs in a number of regional areas and within particular states

(South Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and Victoria). In the major metropolitan centres, cost

of living pressures have tended to be greatest in the outer-metropolitan areas.

Figure E.1: Distribution of COLS across LGAs

In addition to calculating the COLS for each LGA, consideration was also given to a number of

complementary economic indicators which help to explain why certain LGAs have been more

heavily impacted by cost of living trends. These indicators include: analysis of incomes,

employment metrics and household structure by LGA.

The key points from the analysis are set out below:

A large larger number of LGAs in South Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and Victoria fall

within the first and second quintiles (i.e., have experienced the highest increase in cost of

living)

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There are a high proportion of regional LGAs that fall into the first and second cost of living

quintiles, reflecting in part lower average income levels compared to metropolitan LGAs. As

well as having a higher proportion of retirees (both on the age pension and self-funded) many

regional LGAs have also been faced with issues of economic transition and structural

adjustment, which has negatively impacted the labour force in these areas

LGAs in the first and second quintiles typically had poorer socioeconomic indicators,

including higher levels of unemployment, lower participation rates and a greater proportion

of their population receiving NewStart allowance payments.

A breakdown of the COLS by LGA in each state/territory is summarised in Figure E.2 below.

Figure E.2: Breakdown of COLS by state

A summary of the findings by state follows. The analysis focuses on those LGAs that fall in the

first and second quintiles for COLS.

New South Wales (including ACT)

The first and second quintiles are heavily concentrated in regional New South Wales, with only

seven of the 55 first and second COLS quintile LGAs being located in Greater Sydney. In

contrast, 58 per cent of all regional New South Wales LGAs fall into either the first or second

COLS quintiles. Many of the northern parts of the state including Orana, the North West and the

Northern Rivers regions as well as parts of the Riverina region have particularly high

concentrations of first and second COLS quintile LGAs. Cumberland and Fairfield are the only

two metropolitan LGAs in New South Wales that fall into the first COLS quintile. Walgett is the

LGA with the highest COLS in New South Wales with a score of 1528.7.

Regional New South Wales

Sydney

Quintile NSW

(incl. ACT)

VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT TOTAL

First 30 23 19 16 9 8 2 107

Second 25 24 24 22 3 9 0 107

Third 36 17 17 9 14 11 3 107

Fourth 26 10 12 19 32 1 8 108

Fifth 14 6 5 4 75 0 4 108

Total LGAs 131 80 77 70 133 29 17 537

% of all LGAs 24.4% 14.9% 14.3% 13.0% 24.8% 5.4% 3.2% 100.0%

First and Second 55 47 43 38 12 17 2 214

% of State's LGAs 42.0% 58.8% 55.8% 54.3% 9.0% 58.6% 11.8%

% of Australia's LGAs 10.2% 8.8% 8.0% 7.1% 2.2% 3.2% 0.4% 40%

Average COLS 1413.6 1424.1 1421.1 1417.5 1349.2 1427.7 1381.7 1353.1

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Victoria

The first and second quintile LGAs are heavily concentrated in regional Victoria, with only 10 of

the 47 first and second COLS quintile LGAs located in Greater Melbourne. In contrast, over 75

per cent of all regional Victoria LGAs fall into either the first or second COLS quintiles. The

Grampians, Loddon Mallee and Gippsland regions have a particularly high concentration of first

and second COLS quintile LGAs. Greater Dandenong and Wyndham are the only metropolitan

LGAs which fall into the first quintile. Yarriambiack is the LGA with the highest COLS in

Victoria with a score of 1510.8.

Regional VIC

Melbourne

Queensland

LGAs in the first and second COLS quintiles are heavily concentrated in regional Queensland,

with only two of the 43 LGAs within the first and second quintiles being located in Greater

Brisbane. In contrast, 65% of all regional Queensland LGAs fall into either the first or second

COLS quintiles. The Far North and North Queensland regions as well as parts of South East

Queensland have particularly high concentrations of first and second COLS quintile LGAs.

Many of the LGAs in the first COLS quintile have very small populations. Fraser Coast and

Bundaberg are two major LGA’s who fall within the first quintile. Pormpuraaw is the LGA with

the highest COLS in Queensland with a score of 1521.1

Regional QLD

Brisbane & Surrounds

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South Australia

LGAs in the first and second COLS quintiles are heavily concentrated in regional South

Australia, with only six of the 37 first and second COLS quintile LGAs being located in Greater

Adelaide. In contrast, 68% of all regional South Australian LGAs fall into either the first or

second COLS quintiles. The Clare Valley, Murray River and Limestone Coast regions in the

state’s southeast have concentrations of first and second COLS quintile LGAs. Within Adelaide,

Salisbury is the LGA that falls into the first quintile. Karoonda East Murray is the LGA with the

highest COLS in South Australia with a score of 1499.3.

Regional SA

Adelaide

Western Australia

Cost of living pressures were generally lower in Western Australia compared with other states,

reflecting in part the benefits arising from the resources boom (i.e. higher employment and

income levels) during the period of analysis (Mach 2011 to June 2015).

Western Australia had a relatively small number of LGAs in the first and second COLS quintiles.

All of them are located in regional Western Australia and typically have very small populations

(less than 1,500 people). Cue is the LGA with the highest COLS in Western Australia with a

score of 1565.9.

Regional WA

Perth

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Tasmania and Northern Territory

Over half of Tasmania’s LGAs fall into the first and second COLS quintiles and there are no

LGAs which fall into the fifth COLS quintile. Geographically, these LGAs are concentrated

along the eastern coast of Tasmania and in Devonport, with the exception of Derwent Valley.

Tasman is the LGA with the highest COLS in Tasmania with a score of 1484.8.

Conversely over half of the Northern Territory’s LGAs fall into the fourth and fifth COLS

quintile and there are no LGAs which fall into the second COLS quintile. Roper Gulf is the

LGA with the highest COLS in Northern Territory with a score of 1476.3.

Tasmania

Northern Territory

A map of the distribution of COLS across Australia is provided in Attachment 1 and a list of

LGAs which fall into the First and Second Quintiles is detailed in Attachment 2 and 3

respectively.

Part 3 – Coles analysis of customer spending behaviour

To examine the extent to which cost of living trends may have been realised in spending

behaviour, Coles also undertook a separate analysis of aggregate customer spending data from

selected Coles supermarkets across Australia. While there is considerable variation across stores,

the results of this analysis indicates that spending patterns and buying behaviour of Coles

customers show a material correlation with the cost of living trends calculated for the LGAs in

Part 2 of this report. Coles supermarkets located in the LGA regions which recorded the highest

COLS typically see customers more focused on value and displaying a greater sensitivity to

product prices.

Coles supermarkets are located across 256 of the 537 LGAs included in Part 2 of this report

(there are no Coles supermarkets in many of the remote LGAs with small population centres).

Given the broad geographic spread of supermarkets and mix of customers, buying behaviour can

vary significantly on a store by store basis. To assist in this analysis, Coles calculated an

‘aggregate customer price sensitivity score’. This score provides an indication for each

individual store of its customers’ propensity to spend on items across the value spectrum.

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For each store, customer data was examined to analyse customer spending patterns across broad

categories and sub-categories. Coles then estimated the average spend per customer, per product

in various categories. This estimate was based on the purchasing behaviour of customers who

buy products across at least 20 categories, visit a store more than ten times and who spend more

than $150 in aggregate over a 52 week period.

Customer spending is then grouped into ‘value’ (30 per cent); ‘mid’ (40 per cent) and ‘high’ (30

per cent) designations. By comparing these scores relative to others, an indicative ‘customer

price sensitivity’ (CPS) score for each store can be estimated.

For this study, CPS scores in the value designation for individual Coles supermarkets in FY16

has been sourced and analysed: A CPS score for a store that is greater than 150 suggests that

customers in that store are very price sensitive while a CPS store score below 100 suggest that

customers in that store are less price sensitive (i.e., less inclined to purchase products at the value

end).

Coles found that the CPS score for individual stores show a correlation with the socio-economic

conditions for the area in which the store is located. The lower the SEIFA Index (an index

calculated by the ABS of the socio economic characteristics of areas) for a store location, the

greater is the price sensitivity of shoppers in that store on average.

Relationship between the COLS and CPS score

The CPS score for Coles stores located within each LGA have been averaged to obtain a CPS

score by LGA. This score can then be mapped against the COLS estimated for the LGA.

As outlined above, the 787 Coles supermarkets operating as at the end of FY16 were located

across 256 separate LGAs. A plot of the COLS score for each LGA against the average customer

CPS score for the Coles stores located in the corresponding LGA is illustrated in Figure E.3

below. While there is significant variability, there is a correlation between the estimated COLS

and the CPS score at the LGA level.

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Figure E.3: Cost of Living Score vs. Customer Price Sensitivity Score

To provide further insight into the relationship between cost of living pressures and customer

spending behaviour, Coles also examined spending trends in a selection of Coles supermarkets

across Australia. Twelve Coles supermarkets were selected for this analysis. The stores selected

are located in LGAs across each of the quintiles identified in the analysis in Part 2 of this report

as well as exhibiting a range of CPS scores:

First quintile: Fairfield (NSW), Salisbury Downs (SA) and Dandenong (VIC)

Second quintile: Gympie (QLD), Marion (SA) and Plenty Valley (in Whittlesea LGA in

VIC)

Third quintile: Caroline Springs (in Melton LGA in VIC), Sandy Bay (in Hobart LGA in

TAS); Albany (WA) and Glendale (in Newcastle LGA in NSW)

Fourth quintile: Cleveland (in Redland LGA in QLD)

Fifth quintile: Melville (WA).

Figure E.4 below illustrates the relative COLS and CPS scores for these selected stores.

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Figure E.4: Cost of Living Score vs. Customer Price Sensitivity Score

Figure E.5 on the following page shows that for the 12 stores selected, there was a relationship

between the COLS, CPS score and the ABS SEIFA Index. Given this, we would expect to see

consumers exhibiting greater price sensitivity in LGAs grouped in the First and Second Quintiles.

Figure E.5: Comparison of scores and indices for identified LGAs

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Coles analysis of customer spending behaviour in these selected stores highlighted the following:

First quintile – customers at Fairfield (NSW), Salisbury Downs (SA) and Dandenong (VIC)

stores show a clear tendency toward value based products. The estimated CPS scores for

each of these stores are amongst the highest of all stores in the Coles supermarket fleet:

Salisbury Downs (170); Fairfield (168) and Dandenong (162)

Second quintile – customers at Gympie (QLD), Plenty Valley (VIC), and Marion (SA) are

more varied, in part reflecting geographical differences. The estimated CPS scores range

from 146 in Gympie, 132 for Plenty Valley and 120 for Marion

Third quintile - customers in the Third Quintile also vary considerably which also reflects

the demographic and geographic differences. The estimated CPS scores ranged from 131 in

Glendale (NSW), 114 in Caroline Springs (VIC), 108 in Albany (WA) and 101 in the

relatively more affluent Sandy Bay (TAS)

Fourth and fifth quintiles - the CPS score for the supermarkets located in Cleveland (QLD)

and Melville (WA) are lower at 109 and 58 respectively. Customers at the Melville store

tend to display buying behaviour that is less price sensitive. These differences can be seen in

variety of metrics summarised in Figure E.5 above.

Other sales metrics relevant to cost of living pressures

As well as the aggregate CPS score, Coles also identified a number of other customer sales

metrics that provide an indication of how cost of living pressures may be reflected in customer

spending behaviour.

Households concerned over cost of living and tight family budgets could be expected to direct

spending towards items on Every Day Low Prices (EDLP) as well as have a greater propensity to

purchase private label products.

Other sales metrics that could be affected include average store sales penetration of fresh

produce and meat as well as packaged groceries. These are summarised in Figure E.6 on the

following page.

In examining these trends it is inevitable that socio-economic factors will play some role, but as

outlined above there are interconnections between these factors and cost of living pressures.

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Figure E.6: Comparison of spending patterns of identified LGAs compared to national average

sales

Key findings from Coles analysis of customer spending behaviour

While there are some anomalies, the overall spending patterns of customers in the twelve stores

show a consistency with the COLS. For example:

There is a higher proportion of EDLP items sold in stores where the corresponding LGA

COLS is higher

There is a lower penetration of fresh produce and meat sales and a higher penetration of

packaged grocery sales where the corresponding LGA COLS is higher

There is generally a higher proportion of private label bread and milk sales in stores where

the corresponding LGA COLS is higher.

These results are illustrated in Figure E.7 below.

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Figure E.7: Spending pattern on classes of good by store

.

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Attachment 1: Map of the distribution of cost of living scores (COLS) across Australia

Distribution of cost of living scores (COLS) nationally

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Attachment 2: LGAs which fall into the first quintile of COLS

1 Cue WA 1565.9 55 West Wimmera VIC 1459.9

2 Walgett NSW 1528.7 56 Strathbogie VIC 1457.6

3 Pormpuraaw QLD 1521.1 57 Glamorgan/Spring Bay TAS 1457.1

4 Flinders QLD 1517.7 58 Federation NSW 1456.9

5 Yarriambiack VIC 1510.8 59 Mid Murray SA 1456.3

6 Buloke VIC 1506.4 60 Gilgandra NSW 1455.2

7 Unincorporated Vic VIC 1500.9 61 Cumberland NSW 1455.1

8 Karoonda East Murray SA 1499.3 62 Hindmarsh VIC 1454.7

9 Tenterfield NSW 1497.3 63 Lithgow NSW 1454.4

10 Paroo QLD 1493.9 64 Kyogle NSW 1453.3

11 Woorabinda QLD 1493.3 65 Uralla NSW 1453.2

12 Perenjori WA 1493.2 66 Coonamble NSW 1452.2

13 Lockhart River QLD 1490.6 67 Junee NSW 1451.4

14 Hope Vale QLD 1490.2 68 Fairfield NSW 1451.3

15 Glen Innes Severn NSW 1487.1 69 Three Springs WA 1451.3

16 Kowanyama QLD 1485.1 70 Tiwi Islands NT 1450.5

17 Tasman TAS 1484.8 71 Fraser Coast QLD 1450.4

18 Tatiara SA 1483.6 72 Gwydir NSW 1449.8

19 Winton QLD 1483.4 73 Sorell TAS 1449.8

20 Peterborough SA 1480.2 74 Indigo VIC 1449.2

21 Orroroo/Carrieton SA 1479.8 75 Dundas WA 1448.9

22 Central Goldfields VIC 1478.9 76 Swan Hill VIC 1448.9

23 Victor Harbor SA 1477.0 77 Kempsey NSW 1448.5

24 Break O'Day TAS 1477.0 78 Elliston SA 1448.5

25 Roper Gulf NT 1476.3 79 Devonport TAS 1448.4

26 Kangaroo Island SA 1475.2 80 Northern Areas SA 1448.2

27 Richmond QLD 1474.7 81 Mansfield VIC 1448.0

28 Brewarrina NSW 1474.5 82 Salisbury SA 1447.1

29 Eurobodalla NSW 1473.6 83 Moree Plains NSW 1447.1

30 Aurukun QLD 1473.0 84 Morawa WA 1446.8

31 Laverton WA 1473.0 85 Dalwallinu WA 1446.6

32 Bland NSW 1472.8 86 Burke QLD 1446.6

33 Northern Grampians VIC 1472.3 87 Goyder SA 1446.5

34 Mount Alexander VIC 1470.3 88 Dorset TAS 1446.4

35 Narromine NSW 1469.8 89 Narrandera NSW 1446.1

36 Southern Downs QLD 1469.4 90 Horsham VIC 1446.0

37 Walcha NSW 1469.3 91 Napranum QLD 1445.7

38 The Coorong SA 1468.3 92 Port Macquarie-Hastings NSW 1445.7

39 Yalgoo WA 1468.0 93 Bega Valley NSW 1445.7

40 Southern Grampians VIC 1467.1 94 Wyndham VIC 1445.5

41 Southern Mallee SA 1465.8 95 Glenelg VIC 1445.4

42 South Gippsland VIC 1465.7 96 Ballina NSW 1445.4

43 Murrindindi VIC 1465.6 97 Mid-Coast NSW 1445.1

44 Tweed NSW 1465.6 98 Maitland NSW 1444.6

45 Menzies WA 1464.8 99 Port Stephens NSW 1444.2

46 Clarence Valley NSW 1464.5 100 Bundaberg QLD 1444.1

47 Benalla VIC 1464.4 101 Loddon VIC 1443.4

48 Yankalilla SA 1463.5 102 Greater Dandenong VIC 1443.4

49 Bass Coast VIC 1462.8 103 Etheridge QLD 1443.4

50 Southern Midlands TAS 1462.4 104 Cassowary Coast QLD 1443.4

51 Wudinna SA 1461.8 105 Brighton TAS 1443.3

52 Doomadgee QLD 1461.6 106 Wakefield SA 1442.7

53 East Gippsland VIC 1461.2 107 Palm Island QLD 1442.5

54 Weddin NSW 1460.9

National

COLS RankLocal Government Area State Cost of Living Score

National

COLS RankLocal Government Area State Cost of Living Score

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Attachment 3: LGAs which fall into the second quintile of COLS

108 Queenscliffe VIC 1442.2 162 Tablelands QLD 1426.9

109 Hepburn VIC 1441.3 163 Lockhart NSW 1426.9

110 Knox VIC 1441.2 164 West Tamar TAS 1426.6

111 Yorke Peninsula SA 1441.1 165 Robe SA 1426.4

112 Loxton Waikerie SA 1440.9 166 Liverpool NSW 1426.3

113 Greater Bendigo VIC 1440.7 167 Melbourne VIC 1426.0

114 Balonne QLD 1440.1 168 Colac-Otway VIC 1425.8

115 Mallala SA 1439.8 169 Hilltops NSW 1425.8

116 Renmark Paringa SA 1439.1 170 Murray Bridge SA 1425.8

117 Hinchinbrook QLD 1438.7 171 Liverpool Plains NSW 1425.5

118 Snowy Valleys NSW 1438.6 172 Maranoa QLD 1425.5

119 South Burnett QLD 1438.3 173 West Coast TAS 1425.4

120 Nambucca NSW 1437.9 174 Central Highlands TAS 1425.2

121 Central Coast TAS 1437.8 175 Canterbury-Bankstown NSW 1425.2

122 Campaspe VIC 1437.8 176 McKinlay QLD 1425.1

123 Mareeba QLD 1437.6 177 Cook QLD 1425.0

124 Franklin Harbour SA 1437.3 178 Wollongong NSW 1425.0

125 Kimba SA 1437.2 179 Muswellbrook NSW 1424.9

126 Griffith NSW 1436.3 180 Croydon QLD 1424.7

127 Richmond Valley NSW 1436.3 181 Baw Baw VIC 1424.4

128 Coober Pedy SA 1436.1 182 Kentish TAS 1424.3

129 Gawler SA 1436.0 183 Playford SA 1423.7

130 Burwood NSW 1435.7 184 Wentworth NSW 1423.4

131 Whitehorse VIC 1435.7 185 Mount Gambier SA 1423.1

132 Yarrabah QLD 1435.4 186 Carnarvon WA 1423.1

133 Banyule VIC 1435.0 187 Whittlesea VIC 1422.7

134 Naracoorte and Lucindale SA 1434.6 188 Casey VIC 1422.6

135 Bellingen NSW 1434.3 189 Wagga Wagga NSW 1422.5

136 Huon Valley TAS 1434.3 190 Burdekin QLD 1422.3

137 Bourke NSW 1434.2 191 Moreton Bay QLD 1421.8

138 Golden Plains VIC 1433.9 192 George Town TAS 1421.8

139 Temora NSW 1433.5 193 Northern Peninsula Area QLD 1421.7

140 Shoalhaven NSW 1433.4 194 Meander Valley TAS 1421.6

141 Gympie QLD 1433.3 195 Charters Towers QLD 1421.5

142 Tumby Bay SA 1433.1 196 Scenic Rim QLD 1420.9

143 Warrnambool VIC 1432.8 197 Cherbourg QLD 1420.7

144 North Burnett QLD 1432.6 198 Whitsunday QLD 1420.7

145 Lower Eyre Peninsula SA 1432.5 199 Mornington QLD 1420.7

146 Corangamite VIC 1432.2 200 Sydney NSW 1420.6

147 Monash VIC 1432.1 201 Moyne VIC 1420.4

148 Douglas QLD 1432.0 202 King Island TAS 1420.3

149 Narrabri NSW 1431.4 203 Greater Geelong VIC 1420.1

150 Ararat VIC 1430.1 204 Charles Sturt SA 1419.9

151 Warrumbungle Shire NSW 1430.1 205 Longreach QLD 1419.9

152 Mount Magnet WA 1430.0 206 Carpentaria QLD 1419.9

153 Inverell NSW 1429.6 207 Pyrenees VIC 1419.8

154 West Torrens SA 1429.5 208 Nannup WA 1419.7

155 Wellington VIC 1428.9 209 Streaky Bay SA 1419.4

156 Mildura VIC 1428.8 210 Brimbank VIC 1419.3

157 Blue Mountains NSW 1427.6 211 Mount Remarkable SA 1418.7

158 Armidale Regional NSW 1427.3 212 Murweh QLD 1418.6

159 Marion SA 1427.2 213 Kingston SA 1417.7

160 Greater Shepparton VIC 1427.1 214 Campbelltown NSW 1417.6

161 Cleve SA 1426.9

National

COLS RankLocal Government Area State Cost of Living Score

National

COLS RankLocal Government Area State Cost of Living Score

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Report qualifications/assumptions and limiting conditions

This report is for the exclusive use of the Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd. There are no

third party beneficiaries with respect to this report, and NERA Economic Consulting does not

accept any liability to any third party.

Information furnished by others, upon which all or portions of this report are based, is believed

to be reliable but has not been independently verified, unless otherwise expressly indicated.

Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources we deem to be reliable;

however, we make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The

findings contained in this report may contain predictions based on current data and historical

trends. Any such predictions are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. NERA Economic

Consulting accepts no responsibility for actual results or future events.

The opinions expressed in this report are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the

date of this report. No obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect changes, events or

conditions, which occur subsequent to the date hereof.

All decisions in connection with the implementation or use of advice or recommendations

contained in this report are the sole responsibility of the client. This report does not represent

investment advice nor does it provide an opinion regarding the fairness of any transaction to any

and all parties.

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Australia

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