COST Action TU1003 Seminar Megaproject Risk Assessment and Simulation

Time: 09:00-16:00 BST, Friday 30th May 2014

Venue: Cedar Suite, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, EH14 4AS, Edinburgh, UK Chair of the Action Prof. Naomi Brookes School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, UK Seminar Organisers Dr George Z. Chen, Prof. Stephen O. Ogunlana School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Email: zhen.chen@hw.ac.uk Tel: +44 (0)131 451 4635 About the Seminar

The COST Action TU1003 MEGAPROJECT1, which focuses on the effective design and delivery of megaprojects in the European Union, was established in 2011 to connect multi-disciplinary researchers from across 24 COST countries to tackle the issues of megaproject design and delivery. The Action aims to produce immediate guidelines to influence practice and a framework to guide future decisions on resourcing EU research in megaproject design and delivery. The MEGAPROJECT COST Action operates a working group on 'Risk in the Front End'.

The goal of the COST Action TU1003 Seminar on Megaproject Risk Assessment and Simulation is to further reflect the latest progresses in research and practice in megaproject risk management so as to advance the scholarship of academics and professionals who dedicate themselves in this subject field, and to contribute to the study of this important subject for better risk management in megaprojects.

The seminar provides a unique opportunity for participants to exchange knowledge, information and experience in the key disciplines of risk management in megaprojects, and to identify critical problems that further research should tackle. There are two sessions in the seminar:

- In the session on practice, presentations focus on the practice of risk management in megaprojects, and invited speakers are from European Commission, The Crown Estate, Turner & Townsend Infrastructure, Bircham Dyson Bell, Capital Value & Risk Limited, Aston Business School, Jacobs & IRM, and Heriot-Watt University.

- in the session on research, presentations focus on the research into megaproject risk management models using techniques such as analytic network process, system dynamics, and machine learning, etc., and invited speakers are from Heriot-Watt University, The Symmetric Partnership LLP, and University of Belgrade.

1 Action website: www.mega-project.eu

COST Action TU1003 Seminar Megaproject Risk Assessment and Simulation

Time: 09:00-16:00 BST, Friday 30th May 2014

Venue: Cedar Suite, Heriot-Watt University, Riccarton, EH14 4AS, Edinburgh, UK

AGENDA

09:00 Morning tea

09:45 Introduction by the organiser

10:00 Major Projects in Cohesion Policy Ms Camelia M. Kovács, Directorate G, European Commission

10:30 Managing the UK Offshore Wind Programme Mr Pierre Puyrigaud, Development Manager, The Crown Estate

11:00 Some Key Aspects in Managing Risks When Delivering Transport Megaprojects Mr Anthony Francis, Public Transport Consultant, Bircham Dyson Bell, UK

11:15 A9 Dualling Perth to Inverness: Overview of Programme & Risk Management Mr Glyn Harrison, Director, Capital Value & Risk Limited, UK

11:30 Strategic Risk Management in Major Water Infrastructure Projects Mr Steve Whalley, Associate Director, Turner & Townsend Infrastructure, UK

12:00 Risk Management in Mega Oil Pipeline Construction Projects Prof. Prasanta Kumar Dey, Aston Business School, UK

12:30 Buffet lunch

13:30 Responses to Emergency Incident under University Strategic Risk Assessment Framework Ms Lorraine Loy, Head of Risk and Audit Management, Heriot-Watt University

13:45 Trends and Developments in Portfolio, Program and Project Risk Management: Sharing Knowledge Dr James Kimmance, Head of Risk, Jacobs / Chairperson, IRM Construction SIG, UK

14:00 Multicriteria Risk Assessment for Megaprojects Dr George Z. Chen, Lecturer in Facilities Management, Heriot-Watt University

14:15 Using System Dynamics Simulation to Assess Risk Mr Douglas McKelvie, Partner, The Symmetric Partnership LLP, UK

14:30 A Dynamic Systems Approach to Megaproject Risk Assessment and Simulation Mr Prince Boateng, PhD Candidate, Heriot-Watt University

15:15 Towards An Early Warning Model for Prediction of Megaproject Performance Mr Miljan Mikic, Lecturer, University of Belgrade, Serbia

15:45 Discussion and Closure by the organiser

16:00 Afternoon tea

POSTER PRESENTATIONS 1. Megaproject Analytics 2. Megaproject Dynamics 3. Post-disaster Damage and Needs Assessment

ATTENDEES Speakers 12

Mr Prince Boateng PhD Candidate, Heriot-Watt University, UK Dr George Z. Chen Lecturer in Facilities Management, Heriot-Watt University, UK Prof. Prasanta Kumar Dey Professor in Operations Management, Aston Business School, UK Mr Anthony Francis Public Transport Consultant, Bircham Dyson Bell, UK Mr Glyn Harrison Director, Capital Value & Risk Limited, UK Dr James Kimmance Head of Risk, Jacobs / Chairperson, IRM Construction SIG, UK Ms Camelia M. Kovács Programme Manager, Major Projects Team, European Commission, Belgium Ms Lorraine Loy Head of Risk and Audit Management, Heriot-Watt University Mr Douglas McKelvie Partner, The Symmetric Partnership LLP, UK Mr Miljan Mikic Assistant Lecturer, University of Belgrade, Serbia Mr Pierre Puyrigaud Development Manager, The Crown Estate, UK Mr Steve Whalley Associate Director, Turner & Townsend Infrastructure, UK Professionals 20

Mr Nick Aldridge Manager, Risk Infrastructure & Optimisation, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, UK Mrs Kay Ballantyne Project Risk Manager, SSE Energy Supply Limited, UK Mr Geoffrey Bell Senior Advisor – Estimating, Schedule & Risk, Talisman Energy Limited, UK Ms Tracy Barschtschyk Scottish Procurement and Commercial Directorate, Scottish Government, UK Mr Tim Cummins CEO, International Association for Contract & Commercial Management (IACCM), UK Mr Iain Davidson QEC Project Manager (Atlas Deployed Risk Manager), Hewlett-Packard Company, UK Mr Gordon S.R. Duncan Project Support Manager, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Neil Dutton IT Project Manager, NHS National Services Scotland, UK Mr David Ferguson Change Risk Specialist, Virgin Money, UK Mr Giorgio Giancane Director of Operations, SICES Construction Division, Italy Mr Neil Hall Project Co-ordinator, NHS National Services Scotland, UK Mr Donald Henderson Project Manager, NHS National Services Scotland, UK Mr Ian McGowan Corporate Risk Specialist, Scottish Water, UK Ms Anne Ogilvie Business Services (Risk), The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, UK Mr John Parry White Young Green, UK Mr Peter Ranger Regional Director, White Young Green, UK Mr Steve Salvini Project Support Manager, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Punjab Singh Risk Adviser, Balfour Beatty Construction Services, UK Mr William Tiercelin Project Controls Specialist, EDP Renewables, UK Mr Fraser Weir Project Controls Specialist, Repsol Nuevas Energias UK Members of the MEGAPROJECT COST Action 9

Dr Rafaela Alfalla-Luque Associate Professor, University of Seville, Spain Dr Ivana Burcar Dunovic Assistant Professor, University of Zagreb, Croatia Dr Ana Irimia-Dieguez Associate Professor, University of Seville, Spain Ms Agnieszka Lukasiewicz Management Systems & Telematics Officer, Road & Bridge Research Institute, Poland Ms Marisa Pedro Early Stage Researcher, Instituto Superior Technico Lisbon, Portugal Mr Ehsan K.M. Rad PhD Candidate, Herriot- Watt University, UK Mr Tristano Sainati Early Stage Researcher, University of Lincoln, UK Mr Josip Sertic Researcher, University of Zagreb, Croatia Ms Daniela Yordanova Assistant Professor, University of Ruse, Bulgaria Academics 11

Mr Ibrahim Al Ruqeishi Postgraduate, School of the Built Environment (SBE), Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Konstantinos Apostolou Postgraduate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Jeremy Garnett Lecturer, University of the West of Scotland, UK Mr Thomas Hammell Risk Management Student, Glasgow Caledonian University, UK Mr Ifeyinwa Rita Kanu PhD Candidate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Stylianos Kapetanakis Postgraduate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Qasim Farid Khan Postgraduate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Miss Siying Liu Postgraduate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Miss Eirini Palaiologou Postgraduate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Harijanto Setiawan PhD Candidate, SBE, Heriot-Watt University, UK Mr Geoff Wood PhD Candidate, Business School, University of Edinburgh, UK

JOINING INSTRUCTIONS

Local transport The Riccarton Campus of Heriot-Watt University is about 6 miles from the Edinburgh city centre. It’s well served by frequent local bus services and is also easy to access by car. Please refer to the road map to the Campus for details.

The easiest way to plan your journey to the campus is to use the Traveline Scotland Journey Planner, which uses up-to-date public transport timetables. More information about local transport is given below and available online at Maps & Directions to the Riccarton Campus of Heriot-Watt University

Local weather BBC Weather Edinburgh http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2650225

Seminar venue The seminar takes place at Cedar Suite on the Riccarton Campus of Heriot-Watt University. The Cedar Suite

is located within the first floor of the Edinburgh Conference Centre (ECC) 2. Please refer to ECC map for

details. Please entre the ECC from the Main Reception of the University, and get further direction or follow direction board from there to the seminar room. Either Bus 25 or Bus 45 has its Riccarton stop outside the Main Reception of the University. For Bus 34, its Riccarton stop is about 100 metres away from the Main Reception of the University.

2 Edinburgh Conference Centre (ECC), Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK

Tel: +44 (0)131 451 3115 E-mail: info@edinburgh-conference.com URL: www.edinburgh-conference.com

HOTEL ACCOMMODATION Novotel 0131 446 5600, 2.5 miles from the Riccarton campus of Heriot-Watt University 15 Lochside Avenue EDINBURGH, EH12 9DJ Marriott Dalmahoy 0131 333 1845, 3.5 miles Kirknewton Edinburgh, EH27 8EB Marriott Edinburgh 0131 334 9191, 3.5 miles 111 Glasgow Road Edinburgh, EH12 8NF Premier Inn Edinburgh Airport (Newbridge) 0871 527 9284, 5 miles 5 Hallbarns Crescent Newbridge, Edinburgh EH28 8TH Holiday Inn Express Edinburgh Airport 0131 333 4331, 5 miles Edinburgh International Airport 101 Ingliston Road Edinburgh, EH28 8AU Hilton Edinburgh Airport 0131 519 4400, 5 miles Edinburgh International Airport Edinburgh, EH28 8LL Quality Hotel @ Edinburgh Airport 0870 742 9766, 5 miles 101 Ingliston Road, Ingliston, Newbridge Edinburgh, EH28 8AU Norton House Hotel 0131 333 6447, 5.5 miles Ingliston Edinburgh, EH28 8LX Travel Lodge See Website for Details. Various locations throughout Edinburgh Other options at VisitScotland. 5 miles Note: Roads surrounding airport and city bypass are very busy during peak travel periods delegates should be advised to leave plenty of time for their journey.

The Lawn

The Loch

Car Park C

Car Park B

Car Park A

A71 Kilmarnock

A71 City Centre Research Park North

Research Park South

A70 Currie

, Lanark

Park & Ride

Main Reception and Edinburgh

Conference Centre

Bus Terminal

Main Entrance

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EDINBURGH CONFERENCE CENTRE

1 James Watt I (Auditorium) James Watt II

Meeting Rooms Y Leonard Horner Conference Lounge

Z 2nd Floor: Cedar Room, Cedar Suite Oak Room, Beech Room

1st Floor: Lecture Theatre 4 Ground Floor: Lecture Theatres 1–3

HUGH NISBET BUILDING Catering Outlets C 2nd Floor: College Lounge

1st Floor: Central Food Court Brio Ground Floor: Elements The Piece

SERVICES

A George Heriot Wing - Gait 9 B Health Centre - Gait 9 C Gardeners Cottage: Transition Heriot-Watt

D Students Union - Gait 7 E Estates Services / Research Park Office - Gait 6 F Recycling Centre - Gait 5

G Media Services: Graphics and Printing - Gait 6 H Procurement Services - Gait 6 I Mail Room - Gait 6 J Nursery - Gait 1 K Chaplaincy - Gait 4 L Media Services: Audio Visual - Gait 12 M International Study Centre

EC10

12

Edinburgh Campuswww.hw.ac.uk/directions

RESIDENCES AND FLATS Residences North - Gait 1 a Linlithgow Hall b Pentland Hall

c Ettrick Hall d Yarrow Hall

e Midlothian Hall f Caddon Hall

Residences West g Lord Thomson Hall - Gait 16 h George Burnett Hall - Gait 16 i Robin Smith Hall - Gait 16 j Robert Bryson Hall - Gait 12 k Paul Stobart Building - Gait 12 l Lord Home Hall - Gait 13 m Christina Miller Halls - Gait 13

Residences East - Gait 9 n Leonard Horner Hall

Retail Outlets C Ground Floor: Shops / Bank / Hairdresser /

Bookshop

ACCOMMODATION 1 Visitors who have reserved overnight

accommodation should check in at the Main Reception.

VISITOR CAR PARKING

All visitors must use Visitors Car Park A or B on entering the campus. Car Park C is for visitors to Edinburgh Conference Centre.

Accessible parking - blue badge holders only. Additional accessible parking spaces are available throughout the campus, disabled visitors should make arrangements in advance to ensure an appropriately allocated parking space is made available.

BusStop

CarPark

PrimaryPaths

AccessibleCar Park

BUILDINGS

1 University Main Reception / Edinburgh Conference Centre Recruitment and Admissions Service

2 Centre for Sport and Exercise - Gait 10 3 Sports Academy - Gait 10 4 Edinburgh Business School - Gait 11 5 Cameron Smail Library - Gait 12

Archives, Records Management and Museum Service / Mary Burton Centre / Gibson Craig Wing

6 Henry Prais Building - Gait 12 7 Esmée Fairbairn Building - Gait 12 8 Mary Burton Building - Gait 11 9 Lord Balerno Building

Academic Registry / Finance Office / People and Organisational Development

10 Hugh Nisbet Building Student Service Centre / Student Support and Accommodation / Catering / Shops

11 Scott Russell Building - Gait 3 Careers Advisory Service / Corporate Communications / Development and Alumni / Research and Enterprise Services / SCHOLAR

12 James Nasmyth Building - Gait 3 13 William Arrol Building - Gait 4 14 Edwin Chadwick Building - Gait 4 15 John Coulson Building - Gait 3 16 Allen McTernan Building - Gait 2

Information Technology

17 David Brewster Building - Gait 2 18 Postgraduate Centre - Gait 2

Academic Enhancement Unit

19 William Perkin Building - Gait 2 20 John Muir Building - Gait 1 21 Earl Mountbatten Building - Gait 2 22 Colin Maclaurin Building - Gait 1

Institute of Petroleum Engineering - Gait 8

26 Enterprise Building 27 Centre for Flow Assurance 28 Tom Patten Building

29 Energy Academy 30 NExT Building 31 Jim Brown Building 32 Conoco Building

HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITYEDINBURGH CAMPUS

A7 TO SCOTTISH BORDERS CAMPUS,

GALASHIELSEdinburgh road map

Edinburgh Campus road map

www.hw.ac.uk

BY CAR

Heriot-Watt University’s Edinburgh Campus is easily accessible by car, both from the centre of Edinburgh (6 miles) and from all major routes leading to the city. The University is half a mile from the Calder Junction of the A720 City of Edinburgh By-Pass and the A71 (there are signs for Heriot-Watt University on the approach to Calder Junction).

On the M8, from Glasgow, turn right at Hermiston Gait roundabout following the signs for the A71.

The A720 is a dual carriageway which skirts Edinburgh and can be accessed from all the major routes entering and leaving the city: A90 (North), M8 and M9 (West), A702 (South and M6), A7 and A68 (Borders and South), A1 (South and East).

VISITOR PARKING

All visitors must use Visitors Car Park A or B on entering the campus. Car Park C is for visitors to Edinburgh Conference Centre.

BLUE BADGE HOLDERS ONLYAn accessible car park is located at Gait 10 next to the Centre for Sport and Exercise. Additional accessible parking spaces are available throughout the Edinburgh Campus. Disabled visitors should make arrangements in advance to ensure an appropriately allocated parking space is made available.

BY TAXI

CENTRAL RADIO TAXIS telephone 0131 229 2468 (24 hrs)www.taxis-edinburgh.co.uk

There are a number of taxi services in the centre of Edinburgh including those at Waverley station (rail) and St Andrew Square (bus station). The journey to Heriot-Watt University takes about 20-30 minutes. At the Edinburgh Campus, taxis can be requested from the reception desk in the James Watt Centre.

BY BUS

CITYLINK telephone 08712 66 33 33 www.citylink.co.uk

NATIONAL EXPRESS telephone 08717 81 81 81 www.nationalexpress.com

All national coach services to Edinburgh arrive at St Andrew Square bus station, situated at the east end of Princes Street.

BY LOCAL BUS

LOTHIAN BUSES telephone 0131 555 6363 (24 hrs) www.lothianbuses.com

The journey to Heriot-Watt University by bus takes approximately 30-40 minutes from the city centre, depending on the time that you are travelling. Lothian Buses offers services 25, X25, 34, 45 and N25 (night bus) to Heriot-Watt University.

The 25 is the most frequent bus to the Edinburgh Campus, leaving the city centre every 15 minutes during the day, and every 30 minutes after 20.00. During peak times in the morning and evening, Monday to Friday, the X25 runs to the Edinburgh Campus every 15-20 minutes.

The 25 departs from Princes Street, via Haymarket, Gorgie Road and Sighthill. The X25 has a limited stop route beginning at Waterloo Place via Princes Street, Lothian Road and running non-stop to Sighthill before arriving at Heriot-Watt University. The 25 runs until around midnight, after which time Lothian Buses operate the N25, a night bus service which runs every 30 minutes to the Edinburgh Campus from Waverley train station via Princes Street, Haymarket, Balgreen and Sighthill.

The 34 departs from Princes Street via Lothian Road, Fountainbridge, Slateford Road and Sighthill.

The 45 leaves from Hanover Street via The Mound, Tollcross, Bruntsfi eld, Merchiston and Craiglockhart. This service operates every 30 minutes, Monday to Friday, from approximately 07.00 to 19.00.

Bus service schedules and prices are subject to change. Enquiries should be made directly to Lothian Buses.

PARK & RIDE

TRAVELINE SCOTLAND telephone 0871 200 22 33 www.stagecoachbus.com

The Airdirect 747 service runs Monday to Friday from Dunfermline to Ferrytoll Park and Ride, Edinburgh Airport, Gyle Centre, South Gyle, and Hermiston Park and Ride to the Edinburgh Campus. Peak time service only.

BY AIR

EDINBURGH AIRPORT telephone 0844 481 8989 www.edinburghairport.com

Edinburgh International Airport is served by scheduled national and international fl ights. The airport is on the west of the city, just three miles from the campus. The journey by taxi takes about 10 minutes.

AIRLINK telephone 0131 555 6363www.fl ybybus.com

By bus, the express Airlink service links the airport and the city centre and takes approximately 30 minutes. The service terminates at Waverley Bridge, near to Waverley station and bus station and is just off the city's main street, Princes Street. The service runs seven days a week from approximately 04.50 to approximately 00.22.

BY RAIL

NATIONAL RAIL ENQUIRIES telephone 08457 48 49 50 www.nationalrail.co.uk

The mainline rail network serves the centre of Edinburgh well. Edinburgh Waverley is at the east end of Princes Street and Haymarket Station is at the west end. Curriehill Station, one mile from the University, offers a frequent service to Edinburgh Waverley and a service to Glasgow Central Station.

Getting to Heriot-Watt University

Edinburgh Campushow to fi nd us

M25

A1(M)

M3

M25

M2

M20M23

M4M4

M5

M5

M5M40

M11

M1

M50

M1M6

M42M54

M6

M1A1(M)

M56

M62 M62M65

M180

M6

M6

A1(M)

M74(M)

M74

A1(M)

A1(M)

A835

A82A87

A96

A90

A9

A9

A9A82

A77

A75

A66

A19A1

A64

A1

A1A55

A5

A487

A40

A14

A47

A12

A12

A1

A30

A30

A38

A35

A3

A34

ABERDEEN

DUNDEE

GLASGOW

NEWCASTLEUPON TYNE

MANCHESTER

LEEDS

LIVERPOOL

SHEFFIELD

BIRMINGHAM

KINGSTONUPON HULL

NOTTINGHAM

DERBY NORWICH

PETERBOROUGH

LEICESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT

COVENTRY

NORTHAMPTON

OXFORD

SWANSEA CARDIFF SWINDON LONDON

BRIGHTON

PORTSMOUTHBOURNEMOUTH

SOUTHAMPTON

BRISTOL

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Carlisle

York

CarmarthenStansted

Ipswich

Gatwick

Heathrow

Inverness

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Female

Roller Shutter

Elec.

Contr.

Concourse

TOWER

Gibson Room A

Gibson Room B

G.01

EX12

EX14

G.05

G.06

G.08

G.04EX22

G.25

G.23

Sliding Wall

Lounge

Lift

LiftGds.

Gate

310.26

12.98

29.75

13.67

1.98

6.02

9.92

9.93

6.069.52

12.07

2.68

10.02

1.55

6.86

23.33

1.07

55.4420.43

14.8415.13

15.18

37.56

8.63

26.07

3.74 15.3817.20

121.53

29.1512.37

95.3765.53

21.482.95

758.65

553.22

18.35

0.21

34.08

33.96

2.64

2.15

3.48

21.90

23.243.37

2.713.296.84

0.21 0.21

43.91

54.246.79

18.4255.6232.91

33.37

37.775.24

5.93 36.57

43.87

27.142.262.46

21.9910.66

16.618.60

5.67

26.97

0.83

142.36

84.54

17.83

37.19

1.65

4.47

19.39

14.24

189.48

1.61370.87

228.15

39.01

5.63

0.25

0.25

19.9516.54

Bruce Room A

Bruce Room B

Loading Bay

Room

Electrics

JAMES WATT 1

JAMES WATT 2

Cash Machine

Restaurant

Lift / Disabled Access

Stairs

Main Reception

Payphone

Public Toilets

Baby Changing

Vacation and Campus Facilities

Dedicated FacilitiesJames Watt Centre

Hugh Nisbet Building

Ground Floor

Leonard Horner HallConference Lounge

and Accommodation

Accommodation and Gardens

Middle Floor

Main Entrance

Top Floor

Free Car Parking

Accommodation and Gardens

College Lounge

Beech Room

Servery

Main DiningRoom Brio

LectureTheatre 4

LectureTheatre 4

LectureTheatre 3

LectureTheatre 2 Lecture

Theatre 1

Carnegie Room

Reception

MainAuditorium

James WattCentre 2 Entrance

James WattCentre 1 Entrance

Bridge Link

Wardlaw Room

Elements Bar

Elements

Shop

Sunken LoungeThe Piece

Chaplaincy

Residences

Student Support Services Centre

Gibson Room

Foyer

Bruce Room

Lounge

Hall

Bar

Cedar RoomOak Room

Cedar Suite

Room 2.17