General Meeting 2011

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22 km

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации3

KRASNAYA POLYANA

General Meeting 2011

General Meeting 2011

PP CORSOPP CORSO

Part 1Part 1

Rome, 2011 Rome, 2011

General Meeting 2011

17 staff members COSMO-RU: 11 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 2 - graduates MSU

1. Technol. Line : D.Blinov, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina;

2. Snow : E.Kazakova, I. Rozinkina ;

3. T2m : G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova;

4. Boundary layer: M.Chumakov, V.Perov;

5. VERSUS-2 : A.Bundel, A.Muravev;

6. h <= 2.2 km : D.Blinov, G.Rivin;

7. Ensembles : D.Alferov, E.Astakhova, G.Rivin;

8. Data Assim. : V.Gorin, M.Tsyrulnykov;

9.ART : A.Kirsanov, A.Revokatova, G.Surkova.

10.Mires : A.Yurova

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General Meeting 2011

SYSTEM COSMO-RUSYSTEM COSMO-RU

GME x = 30/20 km

COSMO-RU7 x = 7 km

COSMO-RU2 x =2.2 km Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 кмTime step: 15 секForecast: 24 час.Cores: 400

Grid: 368 642 * 60 Step: 30 / 20 кмTime step: 110 секForecast: 7 суток

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

COSMO-RUsib x =14 km

GME: initial and boundary data

Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 кмTime step: 40 секForecast: 78 час.Cores: 800

Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 кмTime step: 80 секForecast: 78 час.Cores: 48.

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April 13, 2011

Roshydromet decided to implement the system of mesoscale weather prediction COSMO-RU in operational practice as a base for use in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and

other Roshydromet prognostic offices.

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации7

General Meeting 2011

COSMO-RU07: domain, time of run with MPI

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации8

Initial and boundary data: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD)Forecast: 78 h (00,12 UTC)

48 h (06,18 UTC)

Grid step 7 km Grid: 700 * 620 * 40

SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory)

Run time for 78 h.

19 min: 1024 cores 33 min: 512 cores 59 min: 256 cores

4340 km

4900 km

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

COSMO-RU02: domain, time of run with MPI

h = 2.2 km

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Initial and boundary data: 00,06,12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD)Forecast: 24 h

Grid step 2.2 km Grid: 420 * 470 * 50 (Moscow) 420 * 470 * 50 (Sochi) SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium 2, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory)

Run time for 24 h.

27 min: 400 cores

h = 2.2 km

Moscow

Sochi

COSMO-RU products,

00 / 12 UTC):

Maps: more 900Meteograms: near 400,

GRIB1 datasets– more 300 files,data on the databases of HMC of

Russia 10

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Т2мTd2мТ850Т700Т500

PRESSURE

PRECIPITATION

CONVECTIVE CLOUDNESS

10 000 м8 000 м6 000 м4 000 м2 000 м

0 м

CLOUDSNESS

мм/3часамм/час

25.12 26 december 27 december 28.12.2010

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

DAY and HOURS

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WIND500 гПа700 гПа850 гПа500 м10 м

COSMO-RU07COSMO-RU07:: MOSCOWMOSCOW, 25.12.2010_15 – 28.12.2010_21 (, 25.12.2010_15 – 28.12.2010_21 (mscmsc))

Velocity, m/c

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25

факт1300-1430

прогноз_на12ч

прогнозна_24ч

прогноз на 36ч.

прогноз_на_00ч

Порыв ветра(прогноз на 00ч.)

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Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 Wind

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

факт1300-1430

прогноз_на12ч

прогнозна_24ч

прогноз на 36ч.

прогноз_на_00ч

15Т, ˚С

Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 T

General Meeting 2011

COSMO-RU02, September-November 2010, Psea, Moscow

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COSMO-RU2, 12-23 February 2011, T2m(prepared by A. Bundel & Versus2)

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, COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014,SOCHI-2014, T2m ,, 28.01.2011_15 28.01.2011_15MSCMSC

, COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014,SOCHI-2014, Precipitation, 28.01.2011_1528.01.2011_15MSCMSC

PP CORSOPP CORSO

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Rome, 2011 Rome, 2011

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MOTIVATION

1. For COSMO model development:

COSMO Science Plan 2010-2014 (publication date: 30.11.2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes

clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km.

... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.”

2. Meteorological support for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

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PP CORSO - main goal:

To develop and improve the complex operational high resolution short-range forecast technology for mountain areas for winter weather events on base of COSMO researches

(in example of Sochi area)

CORSO Task 1.High resolution COSMO model development for mountainous regions

1.1. DA for bottom layers and land surface state 1.2. Physical aspects, incl. land data set verification 1.3 Numerical aspects of high (1km) resolution 1.4. Operational support and products dissemination Deliverables: FDP: Operative COSMO-RU for SOCHI-2014, h=2.2 km with DA (Sn,T2m) RDP: Modification of COSMO-1 km, analysis of the results of the tests

2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL G.Rivin MeteoSwiss, APRA- SIMC DWD

CORSO - Task 2. Downscalling postprocessing for mountain areas 2.1. Configuration of down-scaling operation system, incl.

different approaches of postprocessing 2.2. Data measurement collection 2.3 Local weather studies and techniques for classification 2.4. Operational support and guidelines for forecasters

Deliverables: FDP: Operative forecasting technology of local weather and specific parameters for sportive venues, visualisation support, guidelines for forecasters. RDP: Tested techniques of downscaling, algorithms of vertical T interpolation in mountains, algorythms of calculation of specific weather parameters, development of weather types classification2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL I. Rozinkina MeteoSwiss

CORSO - Task 3. Ensemble high-resolution forecasting for Sochi area FDP:Adaptation of COSMO LEPS at 7 km to the Sochi region (SOCHMEL7) and to specific requirements of winter Olympic gamesRDP: Development of high-resolution COSMO-based EPS at 2.2 km for the Sochi regionDeliverables: FDP: Operational EPS technology at 7 km for the Sochi region RDP: COSMO-based EPS 2.2 km. Case studies. Comparison 2.2 km EPS vs 7 km EPS.2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL E. Astakhova, APRA-SIRC, TL A.Montani

CORSO - Task 4. Adapted verification 4.1. Data collection for verification 4.2. Weather dependent and conditional verification tools adapted to Sochi region. 4.3. System of verification of current deterministic and ENS forecast in-situ of measurements 4.4. Implementation of object-oriented and multiscale analysis Operational support and guidelines for forecasters

Deliverables: FDP: Results of verifications of numerical products RDP: Data sets for testing of numerical products. Developed methods of conditional verification for mountainous regions. Analysis and recommendations for further development of used forecasting systems. 1.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL A. Boundel APRA-SIM, Hellenic meteoservice

Thanks !